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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, August 26, 2025

[ Monday, August 25, 2025 | Index | Today | Wednesday, August 27, 2025 ]

DAY 330 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/27/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 78.54°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 63.42°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 70.98°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.966
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 47
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 649

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.79 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.79 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 237
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 459.71 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 45

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 3
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 65.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-08-27 04:00:02OBSERVATION20253304578.5400863.4200870.980080002.792.79FF46.54008648.54008237459.70859844258 00.9657986463774316 53515165DRYH
2025-08-27 00:00:01FORECAST20253304569.63854.73462.18600.003937010.003937012.792.79393701FF37.638639.638237459.7085984425800.824889826987771643515160DRYH
2025-08-26 12:00:01FORECAST20253304569.13454.75261.94300.0578740470.0578740472.792.847874047FF37.134639.134237459.7085984425800.811642219721061643515160DRYH
2025-08-26 08:00:01FORECAST20253304570.32254.48262.40200.0177165450.0177165452.792.807716545FF38.322640.322237459.7085984425800.841899864117681643515160DRYH
2025-08-26 04:00:03FORECAST20253304569.5355.18462.35700.0484252230.0484252232.792.838425223FF37.53639.53237459.7085984425800.822101866946071643515160DRYH
2025-08-26 00:00:01FORECAST20253304569.36856.1262.74400.0448819140.0448819142.792.834881914FF37.368631.368237459.7085984425800.817867884447981643515160DRYH
2025-08-25 20:00:01FORECAST20253304570.21457.30863.76100.0106299270.0106299272.792.800629927FF38.214632.214237459.7085984425800.839288501329991643515160DRYH
2025-08-25 16:00:01FORECAST20253304571.54657.5664.55300.0133858340.0133858342.792.803385834FF39.546633.546237459.7085984425800.86954735240871653515165DRYH
2025-08-25 12:00:01FORECAST20253304571.81658.98265.39900.0440945120.0440945122.792.834094512FF39.816633.816237459.7085984425800.875167330081371653515165DRYH
2025-08-25 08:00:02FORECAST20253304572.44658.51465.4800.043307110.043307112.792.83330711FF40.446635.446237459.7085984425800.887618400201791653515165DRYH
2025-08-25 04:00:03FORECAST20253304572.35658.85665.60600.0755905920.0755905922.792.865590592FF40.356636.356237459.7085984425800.885895955472361653515165DRYH
2025-08-25 00:00:02FORECAST20253304573.02259.23466.12800.0539370370.0539370372.792.843937037FF41.022630.022237459.7085984425800.898204492947141653515165DRYH
2025-08-24 20:00:01FORECAST20253304573.11258.60465.85800.0350393890.0350393892.792.825039389FF41.112631.112237459.7085984425800.899790939305481653515165DRYH
2025-08-24 16:00:01FORECAST20253304573.0458.9165.97500.0240157610.0240157612.792.814015761FF41.04630.04237459.7085984425800.898523231274511653515165DRYH
2025-08-24 12:00:02FORECAST20253304572.42858.26265.34500.0326771830.0326771832.792.822677183FF40.428629.428237459.7085984425800.887275401275081653515165DRYH
2025-08-24 08:00:02FORECAST20253304572.46457.88465.17400.0338582860.0338582862.792.823858286FF40.464629.464237459.7085984425800.887960655136281653515165DRYH
2025-08-24 04:00:03FORECAST20253304572.4157.79465.10200.0326771830.0326771832.792.822677183FF40.41630.41237459.7085984425800.886931657844731653515165DRYH
2025-08-24 00:00:01FORECAST20253304571.76259.1865.47100.0149606380.0149606382.792.804960638FF39.762622.762237459.7085984425800.874057047311991653515165DRYH
2025-08-23 20:00:01FORECAST20253304572.98659.43266.20900.0161417410.0161417412.792.806141741FF40.986623.986237459.7085984425800.897564838327291653515165DRYH
2025-08-23 16:00:02FORECAST20253304573.92259.4566.68600.0346456880.0346456882.792.824645688FF41.922626.922237459.7085984425800.913266097759071653515165DRYH
2025-08-23 12:00:02FORECAST20253304572.33858.94665.64200.0074803190.0074803192.792.797480319FF40.338624.338237459.7085984425800.885549228986281653515165DRYH
2025-08-23 08:00:02FORECAST20253304573.0459.2766.15500.0062992160.0062992162.792.796299216FF41.04628.04237459.7085984425800.898523231274511653515165DRYH
2025-08-23 04:00:03FORECAST20253304573.5860.09866.83900.0165354420.0165354422.792.806535442FF41.58631.58237459.7085984425800.907751101932641653515165DRYH
2025-08-23 00:00:02FORECAST20253304572.89660.18866.54200.0637795620.0637795622.792.853779562FF40.896621.896237459.7085984425800.895952968221881653515165DRYH
2025-08-22 20:00:02FORECAST20253304573.59860.38666.99200.0696850770.0696850772.792.859685077FF41.598623.598237459.7085984425800.908047666110151653515165DRYH
2025-08-22 16:00:02FORECAST20253304573.50860.5367.01900.0586614490.0586614492.792.848661449FF41.508624.508237459.7085984425800.906557788109971653515165DRYH
2025-08-22 12:00:01FORECAST20253304575.88460.74668.31500.0055118140.0055118142.792.795511814FF43.884628.884237459.7085984425800.94025884477991653515165DRYH
2025-08-22 08:00:02FORECAST20253304575.32660.36867.84700.0055118140.0055118142.792.795511814FF43.326626.326237459.7085984425800.933353632376431653515165DRYH
2025-08-22 04:00:04FORECAST20253304574.78660.54867.66700.0070866180.0070866182.792.797086618FF42.786625.786237459.7085984425800.92610023509281653515165DRYH
2025-08-22 00:00:02FORECAST20253304575.3860.60267.99100.0015748040.0015748042.792.791574804FF43.38622.38237459.7085984425800.934047657701811653515165DRYH
2025-08-21 20:00:02FORECAST20253304574.85860.99867.92800.0015748040.0015748042.792.791574804FF42.858625.858237459.7085984425800.927100704861711653515165DRYH
2025-08-21 16:00:03FORECAST20253304574.01260.6267.31600.0019685050.0019685052.792.791968505FF42.012622.012237459.7085984425800.914675747279531653515165DRYH
2025-08-21 12:00:01FORECAST20253304572.7757.1164.9400.0110236280.0110236282.792.801023628FF40.77619.77237459.7085984425800.89366567115561653515165DRYH
2025-08-21 08:00:02FORECAST20253304573.25658.20865.73200.0110236280.0110236282.792.801023628FF41.256622.256237459.7085984425800.902291710696721653515165DRYH
2025-08-21 04:00:06FORECAST20253304573.27458.17265.72300.0110236280.0110236282.792.801023628FF41.274622.274237459.7085984425800.902601071833581653515165DRYH
2025-08-21 00:00:02FORECAST20253304573.41859.3666.3890002.782.78FF41.418620.418237459.7085984425800.90505021426531653515165DRYH
2025-08-20 20:00:04FORECAST20253304572.4157.3864.8950002.782.78FF40.41616.41237459.7085984425800.886931657844731653515165DRYH
2025-08-20 16:00:02FORECAST20253304572.0557.30864.67900.011811030.011811032.782.79181103FF40.05615.05237459.7085984425800.879899688555051653515165DRYH
2025-08-20 12:00:02FORECAST20253304571.9655.81463.88700.0027559070.0127559072.782.792755907FF39.96615.96237459.7085984425800.878094688292511653515165DRYH
2025-08-20 08:00:02FORECAST20253304572.57256.06664.31900.0027559070.0127559072.782.792755907FF40.572619.572237459.7085984425800.889998590001391653515165DRYH
2025-08-20 04:00:03FORECAST20253304571.4255.43663.42800.0019685050.0119685052.782.791968505FF39.42612.42237459.7085984425800.866865871502331653515165DRYH
2025-08-20 00:00:02FORECAST20253304570.48456.67863.581000.012.782.79FF38.484602.484237459.7085984425800.845764530130931643515160DRYH
2025-08-19 20:00:02FORECAST20253304571.94257.86664.904000.012.782.79FF39.942606.942237459.7085984425800.877731420445181653515165DRYH
2025-08-19 16:00:02FORECAST20253304571.54657.00264.2740002.782.78FF39.546606.546237459.7085984425800.86954735240871653515165DRYH
2025-08-19 12:00:02FORECAST20253304571.43859.2765.3540002.782.78FF39.438603.438237459.7085984425800.86725123875941653515165DRYH
2025-08-19 08:00:03FORECAST20253304569.90857.21863.5630002.782.78FF37.908607.908237459.7085984425800.831737982358381643515160DRYH
2025-08-19 04:00:04FORECAST20253304570.01657.27263.6440002.782.78FF38.016609.016237459.7085984425800.834428460809141643515160DRYH
2025-08-19 00:00:02FORECAST20253304566.95650.84658.9010002.782.78FF34.956595.956237459.7085984425800.747641753183591643415227.5DRYL
2025-08-18 20:00:03FORECAST20253304565.17452.48458.8290002.782.78FF33.174586.174237459.7085984425800.687819409107761633415225DRYL
2025-08-18 16:00:03FORECAST20253304564.6752.35858.5140002.782.78FF32.67586.67237459.7085984425800.669852459371871633415225DRYL
2025-08-18 12:00:02FORECAST20253304556.2144.07850.1440002.782.78FF24.21571.21237459.7085984425800.34360160798331623415222.5DRYL
2025-08-18 08:00:02FORECAST20253304556.2144.07850.1440002.782.78FF24.21565.21237459.7085984425800.34360160798331623415222.5DRYL
2025-08-18 04:00:04FORECAST20253304556.67844.7850.7290002.782.78FF24.678570.678237459.7085984425800.360895850518311623415222.5DRYL
2025-08-18 00:00:02FORECAST20253304560.29648.54254.4190002.782.78FF28.296566.296237459.7085984425800.501632116643281633415225DRYL
2025-08-17 20:00:02FORECAST20253304560.29648.54254.4190002.782.78FF28.296566.296237459.7085984425800.501632116643281633415225DRYL
2025-08-17 16:00:02FORECAST20253304558.87444.36651.620002.792.79FF26.874563.874237459.7085984425800.445332631637131623415222.5DRYL
2025-08-17 12:00:03FORECAST20253304556.96643.7950.37800.0051181130.0051181132.782.785118113FF24.966571.966237459.7085984425800.371684269901931623415222.5DRYL
2025-08-17 08:00:03FORECAST20253304556.96643.7950.37800.0051181130.0051181132.782.785118113FF24.966572.966237459.7085984425800.371684269901931623415222.5DRYL
2025-08-17 04:00:04FORECAST20253304555.45441.91848.68600.0322834820.0522834822.782.832283482FF23.454563.454237459.7085984425800.316356288358391623415222.5DRYL
2025-08-17 00:00:03FORECAST20253304550.07236.28443.1780002.932.93FF18.072552.072237459.7085984425800.15533111612971613415220DRYL
2025-08-16 20:00:03FORECAST20253304550.07236.28443.1780002.942.94FF18.072552.072237459.7085984425800.15533111612971613415220DRYL
2025-08-16 16:00:02FORECAST20253304550.70239.0244.86100.0094488240.0194488242.942.959448824FF18.702549.702237459.7085984425800.170783027071551613415220DRYL
2025-08-16 12:00:03FORECAST20253304549.3744.65447.012000.022.942.96FF17.37543.37237459.7085984425800.139231990211951613415220DRYL
2025-08-16 08:00:02FORECAST20253304549.3744.65447.012000.022.932.95FF17.37544.37237459.7085984425800.139231990211951613415220DRYL
2025-08-16 04:00:04FORECAST20253304550.8148.8349.82000.022.882.9FF18.81539.81237459.7085984425800.173527246889571613415220DRYL