MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, August 24, 2025

[ Saturday, August 23, 2025 | Index | Today | Monday, August 25, 2025 ]

DAY 328 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/25/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 78.55°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 66.43°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 72.49°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.947
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 47
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 598

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.79 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.79 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 235
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 458.65 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 43

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 3
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 60.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-08-25 04:00:02OBSERVATION20253284378.5499866.4300472.490010002.792.79FF46.54998597.54998235458.65434269338 00.9474055928003816 53415160DRYH
2025-08-25 00:00:01FORECAST20253284371.83455.95863.8960002.792.79FF39.834590.834235458.6543426933800.846060278593131643415155DRYH
2025-08-24 12:00:02FORECAST20253284371.72654.96863.3470002.792.79FF39.726590.726235458.6543426933800.8437609554031643415155DRYH
2025-08-24 08:00:02FORECAST20253284372.75255.68864.220002.792.79FF40.752591.752235458.6543426933800.864699980190291653415160DRYH
2025-08-24 04:00:03FORECAST20253284373.36455.43664.40002.792.79FF41.364592.364235458.6543426933800.876233091964491653415160DRYH
2025-08-24 00:00:01FORECAST20253284375.2955.7665.5250002.792.79FF43.29585.29235458.6543426933800.907995117223021653415160DRYH
2025-08-23 20:00:01FORECAST20253284375.00256.82265.9120002.792.79FF43.002585.002235458.6543426933800.903671651873941653415160DRYH
2025-08-23 16:00:01FORECAST20253284375.5657.99266.7760002.792.79FF43.56585.56235458.6543426933800.911916706666011653415160DRYH
2025-08-23 12:00:02FORECAST20253284375.3859.57667.4780002.792.79FF43.38585.38235458.6543426933800.909316379751681653415160DRYH
2025-08-23 08:00:02FORECAST20253284376.44260.69268.5670002.792.79FF44.442588.442235458.6543426933800.923862068754031653415160DRYH
2025-08-23 04:00:03FORECAST20253284377.0960.868.9450002.792.79FF45.09590.09235458.6543426933800.931824108041551653415160DRYH
2025-08-23 00:00:02FORECAST20253284376.38861.1668.7740002.792.79FF44.388581.388235458.6543426933800.923167984531341653415160DRYH
2025-08-22 20:00:02FORECAST20253284376.1961.01668.6030002.792.79FF44.19582.19235458.6543426933800.920581957789411653415160DRYH
2025-08-22 16:00:01FORECAST20253284376.69461.2568.9720002.792.79FF44.694582.694235458.6543426933800.927038369777331653415160DRYH
2025-08-22 12:00:01FORECAST20253284377.19860.5368.8640002.792.79FF45.198584.198235458.6543426933800.933086457398561653415160DRYH
2025-08-22 08:00:02FORECAST20253284376.3759.48667.9280002.792.79FF44.37582.37235458.6543426933800.922935560924431653415160DRYH
2025-08-22 04:00:03FORECAST20253284376.159.41467.7570002.792.79FF44.1582.1235458.6543426933800.919385012509951653415160DRYH
2025-08-22 00:00:02FORECAST20253284376.159.2767.6850002.792.79FF44.1578.1235458.6543426933800.919385012509951653415160DRYH
2025-08-21 20:00:01FORECAST20253284376.78460.6268.7020002.792.79FF44.784581.784235458.6543426933800.928147930527611653415160DRYH
2025-08-21 16:00:02FORECAST20253284376.1961.01668.6030002.792.79FF44.19580.19235458.6543426933800.920581957789411653415160DRYH
2025-08-21 12:00:01FORECAST20253284376.62261.3468.9810002.792.79FF44.622581.622235458.6543426933800.926141348815631653415160DRYH
2025-08-21 08:00:02FORECAST20253284376.71261.4369.0710002.792.79FF44.712582.712235458.6543426933800.92726132118351653415160DRYH
2025-08-21 04:00:06FORECAST20253284375.81261.32268.5670002.792.79FF43.812582.812235458.6543426933800.915463515768361653415160DRYH
2025-08-21 00:00:02FORECAST20253284375.07460.0867.5770002.782.78FF43.074579.074235458.6543426933800.90476621934251653415160DRYH
2025-08-20 20:00:03FORECAST20253284375.0260.02667.5230002.782.78FF43.02577.02235458.6543426933800.903946153794461653415160DRYH
2025-08-20 16:00:02FORECAST20253284374.85859.55867.2080002.782.78FF42.858575.858235458.6543426933800.901454925208281653415160DRYH
2025-08-20 12:00:02FORECAST20253284375.05659.75667.4060002.782.78FF43.056578.056235458.6543426933800.904493437037191653415160DRYH
2025-08-20 08:00:02FORECAST20253284375.68659.70267.6940002.782.78FF43.686580.686235458.6543426933800.913703692184061653415160DRYH
2025-08-20 04:00:03FORECAST20253284375.12860.33267.730002.782.78FF43.128576.128235458.6543426933800.905581134932771653415160DRYH
2025-08-20 00:00:02FORECAST20253284373.79660.31467.0550002.782.78FF41.796567.796235458.6543426933800.883949290700971653415160DRYH
2025-08-19 20:00:02FORECAST20253284374.35460.99867.6760002.782.78FF42.354570.354235458.6543426933800.893403524577381653415160DRYH
2025-08-19 16:00:01FORECAST20253284374.3961.71868.0540002.782.78FF42.39570.39235458.6543426933800.893993864498811653415160DRYH
2025-08-19 12:00:02FORECAST20253284373.45461.17867.3160002.782.78FF41.454568.454235458.6543426933800.877869454738511653415160DRYH
2025-08-19 08:00:02FORECAST20253284374.51661.4367.9730002.782.78FF42.516572.516235458.6543426933800.896041503861971653415160DRYH
2025-08-19 04:00:04FORECAST20253284374.37261.28667.8290002.782.78FF42.372573.372235458.6543426933800.893698989548241653415160DRYH
2025-08-19 00:00:02FORECAST20253284372.78858.78465.7860002.782.78FF40.788564.788235458.6543426933800.865398081762891653415160DRYH
2025-08-18 20:00:02FORECAST20253284370.95258.42464.6880002.782.78FF38.952560.952235458.6543426933800.826625703818691643415155DRYH
2025-08-18 16:00:02FORECAST20253284370.6158.40664.5080002.782.78FF38.61561.61235458.6543426933800.818687956906431643415155DRYH
2025-08-18 12:00:02FORECAST20253284369.13453.88861.5110002.782.78FF37.134559.134235458.6543426933800.781892302335421643415155DRYH
2025-08-18 08:00:02FORECAST20253284368.23452.89860.5660002.782.78FF36.234555.234235458.6543426933800.757493203942051643415155DRYH
2025-08-18 04:00:04FORECAST20253284368.66653.1560.9080002.782.78FF36.666559.666235458.6543426933800.769385007540221643415155DRYH
2025-08-18 00:00:02FORECAST20253284365.46251.9858.7210002.782.78FF33.462553.462235458.6543426933800.673953288245491633415225DRYL
2025-08-17 20:00:02FORECAST20253284365.69651.69258.6940002.782.78FF33.696552.696235458.6543426933800.681443615908391633415225DRYL
2025-08-17 16:00:02FORECAST20253284364.59848.90256.750002.792.79FF32.598552.598235458.6543426933800.645704238203981633415225DRYL
2025-08-17 12:00:02FORECAST20253284368.46854.2361.3490002.782.78FF36.468557.468235458.6543426933800.763975387821931643415155DRYH
2025-08-17 08:00:02FORECAST20253284368.954.7761.8350002.782.78FF36.9557.9235458.6543426933800.775688053470341643415155DRYH
2025-08-17 04:00:04FORECAST20253284368.1854.37461.2770002.782.78FF36.18553.18235458.6543426933800.755983759838851643415155DRYH
2025-08-17 00:00:03FORECAST20253284365.71452.71859.2160002.932.93FF33.714545.714235458.6543426933800.682016788110721633415225DRYL
2025-08-16 20:00:02FORECAST20253284365.69652.66459.180002.942.94FF33.696545.696235458.6543426933800.681443615908391633415225DRYL
2025-08-16 16:00:02FORECAST20253284365.22852.53858.8830002.942.94FF33.228544.228235458.6543426933800.666392157096951633415225DRYL
2025-08-16 12:00:03FORECAST20253284363.80650.88257.3440002.942.94FF31.806538.806235458.6543426933800.619080807317561633415225DRYL
2025-08-16 08:00:02FORECAST20253284364.34650.48657.4160002.932.93FF32.346540.346235458.6543426933800.637302954577941633415225DRYL
2025-08-16 04:00:04FORECAST20253284362.52848.21855.3730002.882.88FF30.528533.528235458.6543426933800.574959614553571633415225DRYL
2025-08-16 00:00:02FORECAST20253284366.05650.59458.3250002.032.03FF34.056544.056235458.6543426933800.692823059665311633415225DRYL
2025-08-15 20:00:02FORECAST20253284366.05650.59458.3250002.312.31FF34.056545.056235458.6543426933800.692823059665311633415225DRYL
2025-08-15 16:00:01FORECAST20253284365.73250.05457.8930002.142.14FF33.732548.732235458.6543426933800.682589524985051633415225DRYL
2025-08-15 12:00:03FORECAST20253284364.86847.33656.1020002.112.11FF32.868549.868235458.6543426933800.654627527313841633415225DRYL
2025-08-15 08:00:03FORECAST20253284363.33847.33655.3370002.182.18FF31.338542.338235458.6543426933800.603070137169921633415225DRYL
2025-08-15 04:00:05FORECAST20253284363.2345.42854.3290001.771.77FF31.23544.23235458.6543426933800.599349473556711633415225DRYL
2025-08-15 00:00:02FORECAST20253284349.92845.1447.5340001.721.72FF17.928522.928235458.6543426933800.174750684991941613415220DRYL
2025-08-14 20:00:03FORECAST20253284349.94645.1447.5430001.651.65FF17.946523.946235458.6543426933800.17516494729681613415220DRYL
2025-08-14 16:00:03FORECAST20253284354.06847.49850.7830001.681.68FF22.068523.068235458.6543426933800.285701767885861623415222.5DRYL
2025-08-14 12:00:03FORECAST20253284364.36455.3159.8370001.631.63FF32.364546.364235458.6543426933800.637905299031431633415225DRYL
2025-08-14 08:00:02FORECAST20253284364.36455.3159.8370001.71.7FF32.364545.364235458.6543426933800.637905299031431633415225DRYL
2025-08-14 04:00:03FORECAST20253284352.98851.3552.1690001.691.69FF20.988528.988235458.6543426933800.253863993719691623415222.5DRYL