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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, August 23, 2025

[ Friday, August 22, 2025 | Index | Today | Sunday, August 24, 2025 ]

DAY 327 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/24/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
MH
MEDIUM HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 82.10°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 65.13°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 73.62°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.976
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 50
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 570

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.07 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.07 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 234
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 458.12 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 42

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 3
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 60.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-08-24 04:00:03OBSERVATION20253274282.0999465.1300873.615010004.074.07TF50.09994570.09994234458.12420256731 00.9757121893924416 53415160WETMH
2025-08-24 00:00:01FORECAST20253274273.47253.9663.7160004.074.07TF41.472561.472234458.1242025673100.874161148501451653415160WETMH
2025-08-23 12:00:02FORECAST20253274273.05853.92463.4910004.074.07TF41.058561.058234458.1242025673100.865794035520621653415160WETMH
2025-08-23 08:00:01FORECAST20253274275.12853.52864.3280004.074.07TF43.128563.128234458.1242025673100.903980129490871653415160WETMH
2025-08-23 04:00:03FORECAST20253274276.2853.6964.9850004.074.07TF44.28564.28234458.1242025673100.921427989506591653415160WETMH
2025-08-23 00:00:02FORECAST20253274276.96453.58265.2730004.074.07TF44.964555.964234458.1242025673100.930588111493861653415160WETMH
2025-08-22 20:00:02FORECAST20253274276.6453.67265.1560004.074.07TF44.64556.64234458.1242025673100.92635682374631653415160WETMH
2025-08-22 16:00:01FORECAST20253274277.12655.5866.3530004.074.07TF45.126557.126234458.1242025673100.932632533099981653415160WETMH
2025-08-22 12:00:01FORECAST20253274277.64857.36267.5050004.074.07TF45.648557.648234458.1242025673100.938905436651491653415160WETMH
2025-08-22 08:00:01FORECAST20253274276.65856.0366.3440004.074.07TF44.658556.658234458.1242025673100.926596936060821653415160WETMH
2025-08-22 04:00:03FORECAST20253274275.88455.77865.8310004.074.07TF43.884556.884234458.1242025673100.915722840154411653415160WETMH
2025-08-22 00:00:02FORECAST20253274276.15455.95866.0560004.074.07TF44.154553.154234458.1242025673100.919645269294461653415160WETMH
2025-08-21 20:00:01FORECAST20253274277.12657.39867.2620004.074.07TF45.126556.126234458.1242025673100.932632533099981653415160WETMH
2025-08-21 16:00:02FORECAST20253274275.97457.63266.8030004.074.07TF43.974554.974234458.1242025673100.917045920132851653415160WETMH
2025-08-21 12:00:01FORECAST20253274276.6457.99267.3160004.074.07TF44.64555.64234458.1242025673100.92635682374631653415160WETMH
2025-08-21 08:00:02FORECAST20253274276.89258.0167.4510004.074.07TF44.892556.892234458.1242025673100.929664335039891653415160WETMH
2025-08-21 04:00:05FORECAST20253274277.19858.44267.820004.074.07TF45.198558.198234458.1242025673100.933526138904131653415160WETMH
2025-08-21 00:00:02FORECAST20253274276.9157.66867.2890004.064.06TF44.91554.91234458.1242025673100.929896157679061653415160WETMH
2025-08-20 20:00:03FORECAST20253274276.33457.59666.9650004.064.06TF44.334553.334234458.1242025673100.922182801823641653415160WETMH
2025-08-20 16:00:02FORECAST20253274275.95657.18266.5690004.064.06TF43.956551.956234458.1242025673100.916782557610361653415160WETMH
2025-08-20 12:00:02FORECAST20253274276.24457.59666.920004.064.06TF44.244554.244234458.1242025673100.920921717208261653415160WETMH
2025-08-20 08:00:02FORECAST20253274276.60457.86667.2350004.064.06TF44.604555.604234458.1242025673100.92587480445361653415160WETMH
2025-08-20 04:00:03FORECAST20253274276.24457.84867.0460004.064.06TF44.244552.244234458.1242025673100.920921717208261653415160WETMH
2025-08-20 00:00:02FORECAST20253274275.30858.7367.0190004.064.06TF43.308545.308234458.1242025673100.906879249917411653415160WETMH
2025-08-19 20:00:02FORECAST20253274276.20859.93668.0720004.064.06TF44.208547.208234458.1242025673100.920412986769321653415160WETMH
2025-08-19 16:00:01FORECAST20253274276.02859.88267.9550004.064.06TF44.028547.028234458.1242025673100.91783225853861653415160WETMH
2025-08-19 12:00:02FORECAST20253274275.09259.64867.370004.064.06TF43.092546.092234458.1242025673100.903392451867521653415160WETMH
2025-08-19 08:00:02FORECAST20253274275.93860.27868.1080004.064.06TF43.938548.938234458.1242025673100.916518569052381653415160WETMH
2025-08-19 04:00:03FORECAST20253274275.36259.46867.4150004.064.06TF43.362550.362234458.1242025673100.907736283732051653415160WETMH
2025-08-19 00:00:02FORECAST20253274273.74258.51466.1280004.064.06TF41.742542.742234458.1242025673100.879418474111561653415160WETMH
2025-08-18 20:00:02FORECAST20253274273.27458.06465.6690004.064.06TF41.274541.274234458.1242025673100.870205858512031653415160WETMH
2025-08-18 16:00:02FORECAST20253274273.00458.29865.6510004.064.06TF41.004542.004234458.1242025673100.864675218067841653415160WETMH
2025-08-18 12:00:02FORECAST20253274272.12257.81264.9670004.064.06TF40.122541.122234458.1242025673100.845497603218361643415155WETMH
2025-08-18 08:00:02FORECAST20253274271.81657.45264.6340004.064.06TF39.816537.816234458.1242025673100.838444663748971643415155WETMH
2025-08-18 04:00:04FORECAST20253274272.15857.75864.9580004.064.06TF40.158542.158234458.1242025673100.846313809309261643415155WETMH
2025-08-18 00:00:02FORECAST20253274271.6957.12864.4090004.064.06TF39.69538.69234458.1242025673100.835480601327121643415155WETMH
2025-08-17 20:00:02FORECAST20253274270.86256.76863.8150004.064.06TF38.862537.862234458.1242025673100.815135277568911643415155WETMH
2025-08-17 16:00:02FORECAST20253274270.98856.58863.7880004.074.07TF38.988538.988234458.1242025673100.81832810467571643415155WETMH
2025-08-17 12:00:02FORECAST20253274271.67257.14664.4090004.064.06TF39.672539.672234458.1242025673100.835054311930481643415155WETMH
2025-08-17 08:00:02FORECAST20253274271.94257.27264.6070004.064.06TF39.942539.942234458.1242025673100.841373780431391643415155WETMH
2025-08-17 04:00:04FORECAST20253274272.24857.0264.6340004.064.06TF40.248536.248234458.1242025673100.848341847216761643415155WETMH
2025-08-17 00:00:02FORECAST20253274270.05255.29262.6720004.214.21TF38.052531.052234458.1242025673100.793789347536291643415155WETMH
2025-08-16 20:00:02FORECAST20253274269.69254.93262.3120004.224.22TF37.692530.692234458.1242025673100.783852358024211643415155WETMH
2025-08-16 16:00:02FORECAST20253274268.66655.1361.8980004.224.22TF36.666529.666234458.1242025673100.754060757932271643415155WETMH
2025-08-16 12:00:03FORECAST20253274269.40455.11262.2580004.224.22TF37.404526.404234458.1242025673100.775707207381621643415155WETMH
2025-08-16 08:00:02FORECAST20253274268.86452.9760.9170004.214.21TF36.864526.864234458.1242025673100.759975909839951643415155WETMH
2025-08-16 04:00:04FORECAST20253274265.96652.17859.0720004.164.16TF33.966521.966234458.1242025673100.666260956284451633415225WETMH
2025-08-16 00:00:02FORECAST20253274267.76652.8860.3230003.313.31FF35.766528.766234458.1242025673100.726218259658971643415227.5DRYL
2025-08-15 20:00:02FORECAST20253274267.76653.49260.6290003.593.59FF35.766529.766234458.1242025673100.726218259658971643415227.5DRYL
2025-08-15 16:00:01FORECAST20253274267.5552.8860.2150003.423.42FF35.55533.55234458.1242025673100.719311676389891643415227.5DRYL
2025-08-15 12:00:03FORECAST20253274268.14451.92660.0350003.393.39FF36.144536.144234458.1242025673100.738099147391181643415155DRYH
2025-08-15 08:00:03FORECAST20253274266.32651.56658.9460003.463.46FF34.326530.326234458.1242025673100.678665881349251633415225DRYL
2025-08-15 04:00:05FORECAST20253274265.91249.89257.9020003.053.05FF33.912531.912234458.1242025673100.664384025214491633415225DRYL
2025-08-15 00:00:02FORECAST20253274264.6749.76657.21800.0023622060.00236220633.002362206FF32.67523.67234458.1242025673100.620166967598881633415225DRYL
2025-08-14 20:00:03FORECAST20253274264.68849.78457.23600.0023622060.0023622062.932.932362206FF32.688524.688234458.1242025673100.620820820493821633415225DRYL
2025-08-14 16:00:02FORECAST20253274265.3950.84658.11800.0027559070.0027559072.962.962755907FF33.39520.39234458.1242025673100.646034769747311633415225DRYL
2025-08-14 12:00:03FORECAST20253274272.66253.47463.0680002.912.91FF40.662532.662234458.1242025673100.857441492428421653415160DRYH
2025-08-14 08:00:02FORECAST20253274272.66253.47463.0680002.982.98FF40.662531.662234458.1242025673100.857441492428421653415160DRYH
2025-08-14 04:00:03FORECAST20253274265.42652.75459.090002.972.97FF33.426527.426234458.1242025673100.64731177701351633415225DRYL
2025-08-14 00:00:03FORECAST20253274250.48648.249.3430003.053.05FF18.486502.486234458.1242025673100.147318739395331613415220DRYL
2025-08-13 20:00:03FORECAST20253274251.0848.97450.0270003.13.1FF19.08499.08234458.1242025673100.160777979568491613415220DRYL
2025-08-13 16:00:02FORECAST20253274251.15249.3750.2610003.413.41FF19.152497.152234458.1242025673100.162462175015561613315217.5DRYL
2025-08-13 12:00:02FORECAST20253274253.36651.96252.6640003.293.29FF21.366503.366234458.1242025673100.21976638624111613415220DRYL
2025-08-13 08:00:03FORECAST20253274253.36651.96252.6640003.243.24FF21.366508.366234458.1242025673100.21976638624111613415220DRYL
2025-08-13 04:00:03FORECAST20253274252.17851.29651.7370003.363.36FF20.178504.178234458.1242025673100.187698557303281613415220DRYL