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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, August 22, 2025

[ Thursday, August 21, 2025 | Index | Today | Saturday, August 23, 2025 ]

DAY 326 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/23/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
MH
MEDIUM HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 78.58°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 59.20°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 68.89°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.968
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 47
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 548

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.01 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.06 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.07 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 233
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 457.59 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 41

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 3
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 60.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-08-23 04:00:02OBSERVATION20253264178.5800459.1999868.89001000.014.064.07TF46.58004547.58004233457.5920440763 00.968055942870816 53415160WETMH
2025-08-23 00:00:01FORECAST20253264169.65649.4659.558000.014.064.07TF37.656538.656233457.592044076300.81779569053281643415155WETMH
2025-08-22 12:00:01FORECAST20253264170.5246.79658.658000.014.064.07TF38.52539.52233457.592044076300.840964419817821643415155WETMH
2025-08-22 08:00:01FORECAST20253264170.89846.41858.658000.014.064.07TF38.898539.898233457.592044076300.850466895235981653415160WETMH
2025-08-22 04:00:03FORECAST20253264171.52846.81459.171000.014.064.07TF39.528540.528233457.592044076300.865448169334291653415160WETMH
2025-08-22 00:00:02FORECAST20253264172.46446.7659.612000.014.064.07TF40.464537.464233457.592044076300.885751599312821653415160WETMH
2025-08-21 20:00:01FORECAST20253264173.25648.50660.881000.014.064.07TF41.256539.256233457.592044076300.901150005495851653415160WETMH
2025-08-21 16:00:02FORECAST20253264173.0450.73861.889000.014.064.07TF41.04539.04233457.592044076300.897109069086861653415160WETMH
2025-08-21 12:00:01FORECAST20253264173.23853.20463.221000.014.064.07TF41.238539.238233457.592044076300.900817747813321653415160WETMH
2025-08-21 08:00:02FORECAST20253264173.23853.34863.293000.014.064.07TF41.238540.238233457.592044076300.900817747813321653415160WETMH
2025-08-21 04:00:05FORECAST20253264173.38253.27663.329000.014.064.07TF41.382541.382233457.592044076300.90345310388441653415160WETMH
2025-08-21 00:00:02FORECAST20253264172.98653.1563.0680004.064.06TF40.986537.986233457.592044076300.896080399836871653415160WETMH
2025-08-20 20:00:02FORECAST20253264172.64453.09662.870004.064.06TF40.644536.644233457.592044076300.889392547961521653415160WETMH
2025-08-20 16:00:02FORECAST20253264172.10452.91662.510004.064.06TF40.104536.104233457.592044076300.878216296977921653415160WETMH
2025-08-20 12:00:02FORECAST20253264172.553.43862.9690004.064.06TF40.5537.5233457.592044076300.886486512366391653415160WETMH
2025-08-20 08:00:02FORECAST20253264172.64453.38463.0140004.064.06TF40.644538.644233457.592044076300.889392547961521653415160WETMH
2025-08-20 04:00:02FORECAST20253264172.24853.43862.8430004.064.06TF40.248536.248233457.592044076300.881271161695291653415160WETMH
2025-08-20 00:00:02FORECAST20253264171.40253.5162.4560004.064.06TF39.402530.402233457.592044076300.862537239646481653415160WETMH
2025-08-19 20:00:02FORECAST20253264172.0554.17663.1130004.064.06TF40.05531.05233457.592044076300.877056650599581653415160WETMH
2025-08-19 16:00:01FORECAST20253264172.01454.08663.050004.064.06TF40.014531.014233457.592044076300.876279278034031653415160WETMH
2025-08-19 12:00:02FORECAST20253264172.15854.15863.1580004.064.06TF40.158531.158233457.592044076300.879368260098441653415160WETMH
2025-08-19 08:00:02FORECAST20253264172.57254.19463.3830004.064.06TF40.572532.572233457.592044076300.887946243685351653415160WETMH
2025-08-19 04:00:03FORECAST20253264172.06853.25862.6630004.064.06TF40.068535.068233457.592044076300.877444053906941653415160WETMH
2025-08-19 00:00:02FORECAST20253264170.80852.84461.8260004.064.06TF38.808528.808233457.592044076300.848239418980851643415155WETMH
2025-08-18 20:00:02FORECAST20253264171.02452.761.8620004.064.06TF39.024528.024233457.592044076300.853548629325331653415160WETMH
2025-08-18 16:00:02FORECAST20253264171.27652.75462.0150004.064.06TF39.276529.276233457.592044076300.859583731423621653415160WETMH
2025-08-18 12:00:02FORECAST20253264171.49252.53862.0150004.064.06TF39.492529.492233457.592044076300.864620814042021653415160WETMH
2025-08-18 08:00:02FORECAST20253264171.22252.53861.880004.064.06TF39.222526.222233457.592044076300.858304884909711653415160WETMH
2025-08-18 04:00:04FORECAST20253264171.40252.66462.0330004.064.06TF39.402530.402233457.592044076300.862537239646481653415160WETMH
2025-08-18 00:00:01FORECAST20253264171.16852.71861.9430004.064.06TF39.168527.168233457.592044076300.857018194579991653415160WETMH
2025-08-17 20:00:02FORECAST20253264171.02452.59261.8080004.064.06TF39.024527.024233457.592044076300.853548629325331653415160WETMH
2025-08-17 16:00:01FORECAST20253264171.25852.86262.060004.074.07TF39.258528.258233457.592044076300.859158320402771653415160WETMH
2025-08-17 12:00:02FORECAST20253264171.4254.12262.7710004.064.06TF39.42528.42233457.592044076300.862955691301251653415160WETMH
2025-08-17 08:00:02FORECAST20253264171.04253.88862.4650004.064.06TF39.042528.042233457.592044076300.853985381064251653415160WETMH
2025-08-17 04:00:04FORECAST20253264171.2454.42862.8340004.064.06TF39.24524.24233457.592044076300.858732038310321653415160WETMH
2025-08-17 00:00:02FORECAST20253264169.33253.27661.3040004.214.21TF37.332521.332233457.592044076300.808590500619491643415155WETMH
2025-08-16 20:00:02FORECAST20253264169.29653.13261.2140004.224.22TF37.296521.296233457.592044076300.807550436864021643415155WETMH
2025-08-16 16:00:02FORECAST20253264168.68453.25860.9710004.224.22TF36.684520.684233457.592044076300.789346373889321643415155WETMH
2025-08-16 12:00:03FORECAST20253264167.83851.859.8190004.224.22TF35.838516.838233457.592044076300.762590167249351643415227.5WETMH
2025-08-16 08:00:02FORECAST20253264167.71251.74659.7290004.214.21TF35.712517.712233457.592044076300.75845171288811643415227.5WETMH
2025-08-16 04:00:04FORECAST20253264167.06450.958.9820004.164.16TF35.064516.064233457.592044076300.736563937235541643415227.5WETMH
2025-08-16 00:00:02FORECAST20253264168.50452.32260.4130003.313.31FF36.504520.504233457.592044076300.783806248945821643415155DRYH
2025-08-15 20:00:02FORECAST20253264169.22451.90860.5660003.593.59FF37.224522.224233457.592044076300.805459991815581643415155DRYH
2025-08-15 16:00:01FORECAST20253264169.02652.39460.710003.423.42FF37.026526.026233457.592044076300.799640564874261643415155DRYH
2025-08-15 12:00:03FORECAST20253264169.0850.95460.0170003.393.39FF37.08528.08233457.592044076300.801237940601841643415155DRYH
2025-08-15 08:00:02FORECAST20253264167.74850.28859.0180003.463.46FF35.748523.748233457.592044076300.759638104257871643415227.5DRYL
2025-08-15 04:00:05FORECAST20253264167.96450.68459.3240003.053.05FF35.964525.964233457.592044076300.766689452794661643415227.5DRYL
2025-08-15 00:00:02FORECAST20253264165.49848.1156.80400033FF33.498519.498233457.592044076300.679806221206911633415225DRYL
2025-08-14 20:00:02FORECAST20253264165.53447.94856.7410002.932.93FF33.534519.534233457.592044076300.681166938872881633415225DRYL
2025-08-14 16:00:02FORECAST20253264165.55247.62456.5880002.962.96FF33.552514.552233457.592044076300.681846385199951633415225DRYL
2025-08-14 12:00:03FORECAST20253264168.03651.4459.7380002.912.91FF36.036520.036233457.592044076300.769014181009861643415155DRYH
2025-08-14 08:00:02FORECAST20253264168.03651.4459.7380002.982.98FF36.036519.036233457.592044076300.769014181009861643415155DRYH
2025-08-14 04:00:03FORECAST20253264165.67850.07257.8750002.972.97FF33.678521.678233457.592044076300.686585298516811633415225DRYL
2025-08-14 00:00:03FORECAST20253264161.71846.56254.140003.053.05FF29.718511.718233457.592044076300.526863616403541633415225DRYL
2025-08-13 20:00:03FORECAST20253264162.99646.6754.8330003.13.1FF30.996507.996233457.592044076300.580255326697591633415225DRYL
2025-08-13 16:00:02FORECAST20253264162.29447.37254.8330003.413.41FF30.294506.294233457.592044076300.551046043949331633415225DRYL
2025-08-13 12:00:02FORECAST20253264164.90447.49856.2010003.293.29FF32.904509.904233457.592044076300.657016697813821633415225DRYL
2025-08-13 08:00:03FORECAST20253264164.90447.49856.2010003.243.24FF32.904514.904233457.592044076300.657016697813821633415225DRYL
2025-08-13 04:00:03FORECAST20253264162.0647.78654.9230003.363.36FF30.06512.06233457.592044076300.541239649410981633415225DRYL
2025-08-13 00:00:03FORECAST20253264155.14853.09654.1220003.683.68FF23.148513.148233457.592044076300.265179290511141623415222.5DRYL
2025-08-12 20:00:02FORECAST20253264155.14853.09654.1220003.633.63FF23.148511.148233457.592044076300.265179290511141623415222.5DRYL
2025-08-12 16:00:02FORECAST20253264154.6850.37852.5290003.663.66FF22.68514.68233457.592044076300.249215281929391623415222.5DRYL
2025-08-12 12:00:03FORECAST20253264155.36452.95254.1580003.993.99TF23.364508.364233457.592044076300.272718370656921623415222.5DRYL
2025-08-12 08:00:03FORECAST20253264155.36452.95254.1580003.993.99TF23.364508.364233457.592044076300.272718370656921623415222.5DRYL
2025-08-12 04:00:05FORECAST20253264151.69249.8250.7560003.993.99TF19.692489.692233457.592044076300.160331339397871613315217.5DRYL