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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, August 21, 2025

[ Wednesday, August 20, 2025 | Index | Today | Friday, August 22, 2025 ]

DAY 325 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/22/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
MH
MEDIUM HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 67.84°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 47.85°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 57.85°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.735
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 36
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 516

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.01 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.10 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.11 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 232
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 457.06 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 40

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 3
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 27.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-08-22 04:00:03OBSERVATION20253254067.8399847.8500857.84503000.014.14.11TF35.83998515.83998232457.05785953596 00.7348491611824716 43415227.5WETMH
2025-08-22 00:00:02FORECAST20253254063.66240.85652.259000.014.14.11TF31.662511.662232457.0578595359600.588204304407611633415225WETMH
2025-08-21 12:00:01FORECAST20253254065.1242.7153.915000.014.14.11TF33.12513.12232457.0578595359600.642117121769781633415225WETMH
2025-08-21 08:00:02FORECAST20253254065.9342.6254.275000.014.14.11TF33.93513.93232457.0578595359600.670960430248611633415225WETMH
2025-08-21 04:00:05FORECAST20253254066.52442.60254.563000.014.14.11TF34.524514.524232457.0578595359600.691495181970371633415225WETMH
2025-08-21 00:00:02FORECAST20253254066.8343.2555.040004.14.1TF34.83511.83232457.0578595359600.701849798864321643415227.5WETMH
2025-08-20 20:00:02FORECAST20253254066.34442.90854.6260004.14.1TF34.344511.344232457.0578595359600.685331638744161633415225WETMH
2025-08-20 16:00:01FORECAST20253254066.2945.2355.760004.14.1TF34.29511.29232457.0578595359600.683472363592191633415225WETMH
2025-08-20 12:00:02FORECAST20253254066.63245.35655.9940004.14.1TF34.632511.632232457.0578595359600.695167740346241633415225WETMH
2025-08-20 08:00:02FORECAST20253254066.6547.53457.0920004.14.1TF34.65512.65232457.0578595359600.695777941504041633415225WETMH
2025-08-20 04:00:02FORECAST20253254066.27247.04856.660004.14.1TF34.272511.272232457.0578595359600.682851571208921633415225WETMH
2025-08-20 00:00:02FORECAST20253254065.82247.26456.5430004.14.1TF33.822505.822232457.0578595359600.667168381488561633415225WETMH
2025-08-19 20:00:01FORECAST20253254066.43447.9357.1820004.14.1TF34.434506.434232457.0578595359600.68842000417131633415225WETMH
2025-08-19 16:00:01FORECAST20253254066.1147.9357.020004.14.1TF34.11506.11232457.0578595359600.677241459723461633415225WETMH
2025-08-19 12:00:02FORECAST20253254066.0247.60656.8130004.14.1TF34.02506.02232457.0578595359600.674107116877731633415225WETMH
2025-08-19 08:00:02FORECAST20253254066.39847.42656.9120004.14.1TF34.398507.398232457.0578595359600.687186230578291633415225WETMH
2025-08-19 04:00:03FORECAST20253254066.41646.45456.4350004.14.1TF34.416510.416232457.0578595359600.687803380421961633415225WETMH
2025-08-19 00:00:02FORECAST20253254065.73246.29256.0120004.14.1TF33.732504.732232457.0578595359600.663995214204071633415225WETMH
2025-08-18 20:00:02FORECAST20253254065.31845.75255.5350004.14.1TF33.318504.318232457.0578595359600.649250744705051633415225WETMH
2025-08-18 16:00:02FORECAST20253254065.42645.80655.6160004.14.1TF33.426505.426232457.0578595359600.653119948265231633415225WETMH
2025-08-18 12:00:01FORECAST20253254064.92246.18455.5530004.14.1TF32.922504.922232457.0578595359600.634933543497371633415225WETMH
2025-08-18 08:00:02FORECAST20253254064.4946.3155.40004.14.1TF32.49502.49232457.0578595359600.619098112440921633415225WETMH
2025-08-18 04:00:03FORECAST20253254064.8546.38255.6160004.14.1TF32.85505.85232457.0578595359600.63230939643331633415225WETMH
2025-08-18 00:00:01FORECAST20253254064.54445.98655.2650004.14.1TF32.544502.544232457.0578595359600.621089105761461633415225WETMH
2025-08-17 20:00:02FORECAST20253254064.4945.51855.0040004.14.1TF32.49503.49232457.0578595359600.619098112440921633415225WETMH
2025-08-17 16:00:01FORECAST20253254064.88645.21255.049000.014.14.11TF32.886503.886232457.0578595359600.633622250605661633415225WETMH
2025-08-17 12:00:02FORECAST20253254065.19246.0455.6160004.14.1TF33.192504.192232457.0578595359600.644717066079171633415225WETMH
2025-08-17 08:00:02FORECAST20253254064.90445.71655.310004.14.1TF32.904503.904232457.0578595359600.634278093090571633415225WETMH
2025-08-17 04:00:03FORECAST20253254064.41846.11255.2650004.14.1TF32.418500.418232457.0578595359600.616438551776141633415225WETMH
2025-08-17 00:00:02FORECAST20253254063.96846.00454.9860004.254.25TF31.968498.968232457.0578595359600.59969651484691633315222.5WETMH
2025-08-16 20:00:02FORECAST20253254063.7745.93254.8510004.264.26TF31.77498.77232457.0578595359600.592269568352291633315222.5WETMH
2025-08-16 16:00:01FORECAST20253254063.78845.2354.5090004.264.26TF31.788498.788232457.0578595359600.592946160305931633315222.5WETMH
2025-08-16 12:00:02FORECAST20253254063.37445.46454.4190004.264.26TF31.374496.374232457.0578595359600.577318370430281633315222.5WETMH
2025-08-16 08:00:02FORECAST20253254063.64446.07654.860004.254.25TF31.644496.644232457.0578595359600.587525826583711633315222.5WETMH
2025-08-16 04:00:03FORECAST20253254063.44645.48254.4640004.24.2TF31.446496.446232457.0578595359600.580045737939071633315222.5WETMH
2025-08-16 00:00:02FORECAST20253254064.3146.50855.4090003.353.35FF32.31499.31232457.0578595359600.612438943680551633415225DRYL
2025-08-15 20:00:02FORECAST20253254063.71646.63455.1750003.633.63FF31.716499.716232457.0578595359600.590238148739691633415225DRYL
2025-08-15 16:00:01FORECAST20253254063.91446.36455.1390003.463.46FF31.914503.914232457.0578595359600.597674434036321633415225DRYL
2025-08-15 12:00:02FORECAST20253254064.32845.7755.0490003.433.43FF32.328506.328232457.0578595359600.613106386756941633415225DRYL
2025-08-15 08:00:02FORECAST20253254063.9546.455.1750003.53.5FF31.95502.95232457.0578595359600.599022781829831633415225DRYL
2025-08-15 04:00:04FORECAST20253254064.79646.38255.5890003.093.09FF32.796504.796232457.0578595359600.630337218627591633415225DRYL
2025-08-15 00:00:02FORECAST20253254063.71646.27454.9950003.043.04FF31.716500.716232457.0578595359600.590238148739691633415225DRYL
2025-08-14 20:00:02FORECAST20253254063.71646.2254.9680002.972.97FF31.716500.716232457.0578595359600.590238148739691633415225DRYL
2025-08-14 16:00:02FORECAST20253254063.37444.99654.18500033FF31.374496.374232457.0578595359600.577318370430281633315222.5DRYL
2025-08-14 12:00:02FORECAST20253254063.5944.67254.131000.062.892.95FF31.59498.59232457.0578595359600.58548883139611633315222.5DRYL
2025-08-14 08:00:02FORECAST20253254062.1543.80852.979000.062.963.02FF30.15498.15232457.0578595359600.530491104320341633315222.5DRYL
2025-08-14 04:00:03FORECAST20253254061.03445.62653.33000.062.953.01FF29.034503.034232457.0578595359600.487407411650941623415222.5DRYL
2025-08-14 00:00:02FORECAST20253254058.78444.20451.4940003.093.09FF26.784496.784232457.0578595359600.401501436483221623315220DRYL
2025-08-13 20:00:02FORECAST20253254059.64844.29451.9710003.143.14FF27.648491.648232457.0578595359600.434160361551471623315220DRYL
2025-08-13 16:00:02FORECAST20253254060.87245.17653.0240003.453.45FF28.872490.872232457.0578595359600.481153629094971623315220DRYL
2025-08-13 12:00:02FORECAST20253254060.49446.45453.474000.013.323.33FF28.494492.494232457.0578595359600.466582143010341623315220DRYL
2025-08-13 08:00:03FORECAST20253254060.49446.45453.474000.013.273.28FF28.494497.494232457.0578595359600.466582143010341623315220DRYL
2025-08-13 04:00:03FORECAST20253254060.94446.47253.708000.013.393.4FF28.944496.944232457.0578595359600.483932607096671623315220DRYL
2025-08-13 00:00:03FORECAST20253254065.28249.7357.5060003.723.72FF33.282505.282232457.0578595359600.647957540322381633415225DRYL
2025-08-12 20:00:02FORECAST20253254065.28249.7357.5060003.673.67FF33.282503.282232457.0578595359600.647957540322381633415225DRYL
2025-08-12 16:00:02FORECAST20253254064.86849.1957.0290003.73.7FF32.868506.868232457.0578595359600.632966017799721633415225DRYL
2025-08-12 12:00:03FORECAST20253254065.71446.70656.210004.034.03TF33.714499.714232457.0578595359600.663359167559721633415225WETMH
2025-08-12 08:00:03FORECAST20253254065.71446.70656.210004.034.03TF33.714499.714232457.0578595359600.663359167559721633415225WETMH
2025-08-12 04:00:05FORECAST20253254060.47644.1552.3130004.034.03TF28.476485.476232457.0578595359600.46588922338781623315220WETMH
2025-08-12 00:00:02FORECAST20253254049.71240.26244.9870003.33.3FF17.712480.712232457.0578595359600.129599562549371613315217.5DRYL
2025-08-11 20:00:02FORECAST20253254051.36840.26245.8150003.323.32FF19.368482.368232457.0578595359600.166578489924181613315217.5DRYL
2025-08-11 16:00:02FORECAST20253254053.02448.5650.7920003.43.4FF21.024486.024232457.0578595359600.209739358766451613315217.5DRYL
2025-08-11 12:00:02FORECAST20253254047.0343.95245.4910003.533.53FF15.03491.03232457.0578595359600.0825017644319861613315217.5DRYL
2025-08-11 08:00:03FORECAST20253254047.0343.95245.4910003.533.53FF15.03490.03232457.0578595359600.0825017644319861613315217.5DRYL
2025-08-11 04:00:04FORECAST20253254047.71446.81447.2640003.563.56FF15.714496.714232457.0578595359600.0930734091948191613315217.5DRYL