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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, August 20, 2025

[ Tuesday, August 19, 2025 | Index | Today | Thursday, August 21, 2025 ]

DAY 324 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/21/2025 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
MH
MEDIUM HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 60.10°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 46.31°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 53.20°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.415
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 28
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 504

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.01 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.01 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.10 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.11 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 231
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 456.52 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 39

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 3
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 22.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-08-21 04:00:05OBSERVATION20253243960.0999846.3153.2049900.00999999999999090.00999999999999094.14.11TF28.09998504.09998231456.52164123267 00.4148990015354416 23415222.5WETMH
2025-08-21 00:00:02FORECAST20253243956.53442.45849.4960004.14.1TF24.534500.534231456.5216412326700.292256591176671623415222.5WETMH
2025-08-20 12:00:02FORECAST20253243957.14642.49449.820004.14.1TF25.146501.146231456.5216412326700.31211985234891623415222.5WETMH
2025-08-20 08:00:02FORECAST20253243957.5641.59449.5770004.14.1TF25.56501.56231456.5216412326700.325878137458051623415222.5WETMH
2025-08-20 04:00:02FORECAST20253243957.03840.31648.6770004.14.1TF25.038501.038231456.5216412326700.30857237744981623415222.5WETMH
2025-08-20 00:00:01FORECAST20253243957.90240.92849.4150004.14.1TF25.902495.902231456.5216412326700.337426261925811623315220WETMH
2025-08-19 20:00:01FORECAST20253243958.11841.95450.0360004.14.1TF26.118496.118231456.5216412326700.344800344076011623315220WETMH
2025-08-19 16:00:01FORECAST20253243958.06441.949.9820004.14.1TF26.064496.064231456.5216412326700.342951156780151623315220WETMH
2025-08-19 12:00:01FORECAST20253243957.95642.78250.3690004.14.1TF25.956495.956231456.5216412326700.3392640770241623315220WETMH
2025-08-19 08:00:02FORECAST20253243958.3742.72850.5490004.14.1TF26.37497.37231456.5216412326700.353478339006371623315220WETMH
2025-08-19 04:00:03FORECAST20253243958.98243.1651.0710004.14.1TF26.982499.982231456.5216412326700.374864922227061623415222.5WETMH
2025-08-19 00:00:01FORECAST20253243958.60443.2550.9270004.14.1TF26.604494.604231456.5216412326700.361605333607871623315220WETMH
2025-08-18 20:00:02FORECAST20253243958.13643.05250.5940004.14.1TF26.136495.136231456.5216412326700.345417566872421623315220WETMH
2025-08-18 16:00:02FORECAST20253243958.04643.4350.7380004.14.1TF26.046496.046231456.5216412326700.342335592871541623315220WETMH
2025-08-18 12:00:01FORECAST20253243957.8343.68250.7560004.14.1TF25.83495.83231456.5216412326700.334981864696731623315220WETMH
2025-08-18 08:00:02FORECAST20253243957.6543.7950.720004.14.1TF25.65493.65231456.5216412326700.328901541230851623315220WETMH
2025-08-18 04:00:03FORECAST20253243958.06443.9751.0170004.14.1TF26.064497.064231456.5216412326700.342951156780151623315220WETMH
2025-08-18 00:00:01FORECAST20253243957.77644.27651.02600.0043307110.0043307114.14.104330711TF25.776493.776231456.5216412326700.333153133142281623315220WETMH
2025-08-17 20:00:02FORECAST20253243957.7444.54651.14300.0047244120.0047244124.14.104724412TF25.74494.74231456.5216412326700.331936174159981623315220WETMH
2025-08-17 16:00:01FORECAST20253243958.08243.98851.03500.003937010.013937014.14.11393701TF26.082495.082231456.5216412326700.343567137580551623315220WETMH
2025-08-17 12:00:02FORECAST20253243957.70443.41250.5580004.14.1TF25.704494.704231456.5216412326700.330720984419391623315220WETMH
2025-08-17 08:00:02FORECAST20253243957.77643.68250.7290004.14.1TF25.776494.776231456.5216412326700.333153133142281623315220WETMH
2025-08-17 04:00:03FORECAST20253243957.9243.77250.8460004.14.1TF25.92491.92231456.5216412326700.338038439105131623315220WETMH
2025-08-17 00:00:02FORECAST20253243957.09243.57450.3330004.254.25TF25.092491.092231456.5216412326700.310343911262221623315220WETMH
2025-08-16 20:00:02FORECAST20253243957.1143.66450.3870004.264.26TF25.11491.11231456.5216412326700.310935403594881623315220WETMH
2025-08-16 16:00:01FORECAST20253243956.80442.72849.7660004.264.26TF24.804490.804231456.5216412326700.300947472533151623315220WETMH
2025-08-16 12:00:02FORECAST20253243955.9442.15249.0460004.264.26TF23.94488.94231456.5216412326700.273558854318541623315220WETMH
2025-08-16 08:00:02FORECAST20253243955.88641.9948.9380004.254.25TF23.886488.886231456.5216412326700.271888832711691623315220WETMH
2025-08-16 04:00:03FORECAST20253243956.28242.5349.4060004.24.2TF24.282489.282231456.5216412326700.284251908003961623315220WETMH
2025-08-16 00:00:02FORECAST20253243956.60642.72849.66700.0027559070.0027559073.353.352755907FF24.606490.606231456.5216412326700.294562734158521623315220DRYL
2025-08-15 20:00:02FORECAST20253243957.1143.05250.08100.0027559070.0027559073.633.632755907FF25.11492.11231456.5216412326700.310935403594881623315220DRYL
2025-08-15 16:00:01FORECAST20253243958.31643.26850.79200.0023622060.0023622063.463.462362206FF26.316496.316231456.5216412326700.351612163457231623315220DRYL
2025-08-15 12:00:02FORECAST20253243959.64842.31450.9810003.433.43FF27.648497.648231456.5216412326700.398581632036181623315220DRYL
2025-08-15 08:00:02FORECAST2025324395941.86450.4320003.53.5FF27495231456.5216412326700.375500178715761623315220DRYL
2025-08-15 04:00:04FORECAST20253243960.11642.45851.2870003.093.09FF28.116496.116231456.5216412326700.415480236799811623315220DRYL
2025-08-15 00:00:02FORECAST20253243959.19841.66650.4320003.043.04FF27.198493.198231456.5216412326700.382509928588551623315220DRYL
2025-08-14 20:00:02FORECAST20253243958.92841.1850.0540002.972.97FF26.928492.928231456.5216412326700.372961194429531623315220DRYL
2025-08-14 16:00:02FORECAST20253243957.97441.37849.67600033FF25.974488.974231456.5216412326700.339877534925291623315220DRYL
2025-08-14 12:00:02FORECAST20253243958.2842.51250.396000.062.892.95FF26.28491.28231456.5216412326700.350370025797891623315220DRYL
2025-08-14 08:00:02FORECAST20253243959.01842.13450.576000.062.963.02FF27.018492.018231456.5216412326700.376135772817951623315220DRYL
2025-08-14 04:00:03FORECAST20253243959.1844.16851.674000.062.953.01FF27.18498.18231456.5216412326700.381871046961531623315220DRYL
2025-08-14 00:00:02FORECAST20253243958.69443.82651.260003.093.09FF26.694493.694231456.5216412326700.364748030984051623315220DRYL
2025-08-13 20:00:02FORECAST20253243956.40843.39449.9010003.143.14FF24.408488.408231456.5216412326700.288241157464041623315220DRYL
2025-08-13 16:00:02FORECAST20253243957.41643.8850.6480003.453.45FF25.416486.416231456.5216412326700.321064469884781623315220DRYL
2025-08-13 12:00:02FORECAST20253243959.95445.06852.511000.023.313.33FF27.954487.954231456.5216412326700.409611308630311623315220DRYL
2025-08-13 08:00:03FORECAST20253243959.7245.9552.835000.023.263.28FF27.72492.72231456.5216412326700.40116992508151623315220DRYL
2025-08-13 04:00:03FORECAST20253243959.57645.69852.637000.023.383.4FF27.576491.576231456.5216412326700.395997791188241623315220DRYL
2025-08-13 00:00:03FORECAST20253243961.1645.19453.177000.043.683.72TF29.16496.16231456.5216412326700.453699608768951623315220DRYL
2025-08-12 20:00:02FORECAST20253243961.1645.8653.51000.043.633.67FF29.16494.16231456.5216412326700.453699608768951623315220DRYL
2025-08-12 16:00:02FORECAST20253243962.02446.4954.257000.043.663.7FF30.024498.024231456.5216412326700.485673271640571623315220DRYL
2025-08-12 12:00:03FORECAST20253243958.26243.2550.756000.093.944.03TF26.262490.262231456.5216412326700.349749555240431623315220WETMH
2025-08-12 08:00:03FORECAST20253243958.26243.2550.756000.093.944.03TF26.262490.262231456.5216412326700.349749555240431623315220WETMH
2025-08-12 04:00:05FORECAST20253243956.60640.1948.398000.093.944.03TF24.606480.606231456.5216412326700.294562734158521623315220WETMH
2025-08-12 00:00:02FORECAST20253243960.63845.53653.087000.013.293.3FF28.638486.638231456.5216412326700.434513414301811623315220DRYL
2025-08-11 20:00:02FORECAST20253243962.38447.01254.698000.013.313.32FF30.384487.384231456.5216412326700.499034780634831633315222.5DRYL
2025-08-11 16:00:02FORECAST20253243964.36449.02856.696000.013.393.4FF32.364489.364231456.5216412326700.572142282732251633315222.5DRYL
2025-08-11 12:00:02FORECAST20253243963.51847.15655.33700.0011811030.0011811033.533.531181103FF31.518499.518231456.5216412326700.541060471767281633415225DRYL
2025-08-11 08:00:02FORECAST20253243963.80647.15655.48100.0011811030.0011811033.533.531181103FF31.806498.806231456.5216412326700.551679514796051633315222.5DRYL
2025-08-11 04:00:04FORECAST20253243964.6748.0256.34500.0011811030.0011811033.563.561181103FF32.67504.67231456.5216412326700.583285568917271633415225DRYL
2025-08-11 00:00:03FORECAST20253243952.98850.7251.8540002.912.91FF20.988482.988231456.5216412326700.190281821884781613315217.5DRYL
2025-08-10 20:00:03FORECAST20253243952.98850.7251.8540002.932.93FF20.988485.988231456.5216412326700.190281821884781613315217.5DRYL
2025-08-10 16:00:06FORECAST20253243950.46845.96848.2180003.213.21FF18.468483.468231456.5216412326700.13316921057921613315217.5DRYL
2025-08-10 12:00:02FORECAST20253243953.2449.74851.4940002.322.32FF21.24495.24231456.5216412326700.196719405653941613315217.5DRYL
2025-08-10 08:00:03FORECAST20253243953.2449.74851.4940002.322.32FF21.24492.24231456.5216412326700.196719405653941613315217.5DRYL
2025-08-10 04:00:05FORECAST20253243947.87646.88647.3810002.252.25FF15.876480.876231456.5216412326700.0880112661168811613315217.5DRYL