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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, August 17, 2025

[ Saturday, August 16, 2025 | Index | Today | Monday, August 18, 2025 ]

DAY 321 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/18/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
MH
MEDIUM HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 58.04°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 42.52°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 50.28°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.309
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 26
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 519

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.74 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.36 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.10 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 228
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 454.90 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 36

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 3
D2: 4
D3: 5
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 112.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-08-18 04:00:03OBSERVATION20253213658.0400642.5199250.27999002.741.364.1TF26.04006519.04006228454.90070616754 00.3085310175231516 234552112.5WETMH
2025-08-18 00:00:01FORECAST20253213654.96842.04448.506002.741.364.1TF22.968515.968228454.9007061675400.2127075531632416134552100WETMH
2025-08-17 12:00:01FORECAST20253213655.50841.79248.65002.741.364.1TF23.508516.508228454.9007061675400.2281837446282416134552100WETMH
2025-08-17 08:00:02FORECAST20253213655.36441.64848.506002.741.364.1TF23.364516.364228454.9007061675400.2239960874104916134552100WETMH
2025-08-17 04:00:03FORECAST20253213654.42841.59448.011002.741.364.1TF22.428515.428228454.9007061675400.1978609958775616134552100WETMH
2025-08-17 00:00:02FORECAST20253213654.57240.92847.75002.891.364.25TF22.572514.572228454.9007061675400.2017577059136716134552100WETMH
2025-08-16 20:00:01FORECAST20253213654.39241.5447.966002.91.364.26TF22.392515.392228454.9007061675400.1968939543573616134552100WETMH
2025-08-16 16:00:01FORECAST20253213654.7741.07247.921002.91.364.26TF22.77515.77228454.9007061675400.2071899321991416134552100WETMH
2025-08-16 12:00:02FORECAST20253213654.6841.64848.164002.91.364.26TF22.68515.68228454.9007061675400.204710112648716134552100WETMH
2025-08-16 08:00:01FORECAST20253213655.05841.30648.182002.891.364.25TF23.058516.058228454.9007061675400.2152436044386616134552100WETMH
2025-08-16 04:00:03FORECAST20253213655.29241.70248.497002.841.364.2TF23.292516.292228454.9007061675400.2219187131340816134552100WETMH
2025-08-16 00:00:01FORECAST20253213655.02240.9147.966001.991.363.35TF23.022516.022228454.9007061675400.2142270885405916134552100DRYVH
2025-08-15 20:00:01FORECAST20253213655.441.6348.515002.271.363.63TF23.4516.4228454.9007061675400.225038896226816134552100DRYVH
2025-08-15 16:00:01FORECAST20253213655.02241.57648.299002.11.363.46TF23.022517.022228454.9007061675400.2142270885405916134552100DRYVH
2025-08-15 12:00:02FORECAST20253213655.45441.48648.4700.0043307112.0743307111.363.434330711TF23.454517.454228454.9007061675400.2266082464555816134552100DRYVH
2025-08-15 08:00:02FORECAST20253213655.0441.2748.15500.0047244122.1447244121.363.504724412TF23.04517.04228454.9007061675400.2147349976395116134552100DRYVH
2025-08-15 04:00:03FORECAST20253213654.8641.03647.94800.0027559071.7327559071.363.092755907TF22.86516.86228454.9007061675400.2096873962715616134552100DRYVH
2025-08-15 00:00:01FORECAST20253213655.1340.94648.03800.0015748041.7215748041.323.041574804TF23.13516.13228454.9007061675400.2172849969765216134552100DRYVH
2025-08-14 20:00:02FORECAST20253213655.65241.03648.344001.651.322.97TF23.652516.652228454.9007061675400.2324149847386716134552100DRYVH
2025-08-14 16:00:02FORECAST20253213655.81440.49648.155001.681.323TF23.814515.814228454.9007061675400.2372267605430316134552100DRYVH
2025-08-14 12:00:02FORECAST20253213656.2141.21648.71300.0015748041.5715748041.322.891574804FF24.21517.21228454.9007061675400.2492155320220116234552112.5DRYVH
2025-08-14 08:00:02FORECAST20253213656.4841.46848.97400.0015748041.6415748041.322.961574804TF24.48518.48228454.9007061675400.2575705009945216234552112.5DRYVH
2025-08-14 04:00:02FORECAST20253213658.2842.56650.42300.0043307111.6343307111.322.954330711TF26.28520.28228454.9007061675400.3167448136625816234552112.5DRYVH
2025-08-14 00:00:02FORECAST20253213656.82241.84649.33400.0047244121.7647244121.333.094724412TF24.822514.822228454.9007061675400.2683582677525716234552112.5DRYVH
2025-08-13 20:00:02FORECAST20253213656.19241.91849.055001.811.333.14TF24.192512.192228454.9007061675400.2486636965297716134552100DRYVH
2025-08-13 16:00:01FORECAST20253213655.34641.93648.641002.111.343.45TF23.346509.346228454.9007061675400.2234757124269516134552100DRYVH
2025-08-13 12:00:01FORECAST20253213655.14842.38648.767001.961.353.31TF23.148508.148228454.9007061675400.2177970834872516134552100DRYVH
2025-08-13 08:00:02FORECAST20253213655.47242.24248.857001.921.343.26TF23.472511.472228454.9007061675400.2271327303328316134552100DRYVH
2025-08-13 04:00:02FORECAST20253213656.1242.33249.226002.041.343.38TF24.12512.12228454.9007061675400.2464628685532516134552100DRYVH
2025-08-13 00:00:02FORECAST20253213656.64242.9849.81100.0822835092.3022835091.383.682283509TF24.642512.642228454.9007061675400.2626523201067316234552112.5DRYVH
2025-08-12 20:00:01FORECAST20253213656.19243.26849.7300.0822835092.2622835091.373.632283509TF24.192511.192228454.9007061675400.2486636965297716134552100DRYVH
2025-08-12 16:00:01FORECAST20253213655.95843.98849.97300.0830709112.3130709111.353.663070911TF23.958511.958228454.9007061675400.2415493521415716134552100DRYVH
2025-08-12 12:00:02FORECAST20253213656.5743.89850.23400.0055118142.5755118141.363.935511814TF24.57511.57228454.9007061675400.2603874250558916234552112.5DRYVH
2025-08-12 08:00:02FORECAST20253213656.67842.94449.81100.0055118142.6055118141.333.935511814TF24.678511.678228454.9007061675400.2637885307140916234552112.5DRYVH
2025-08-12 04:00:04FORECAST20253213655.441.82848.61400.0059055152.5959055151.343.935905515TF23.4507.4228454.9007061675400.225038896226816134552100DRYVH
2025-08-12 00:00:02FORECAST20253213655.45442.09848.77600.003937011.963937011.333.29393701TF23.454503.454228454.9007061675400.2266082464555816134552100DRYVH
2025-08-11 20:00:02FORECAST20253213654.37442.8948.63200.0027559071.9927559071.323.312755907TF22.374502.374228454.9007061675400.1964115062609616134552100DRYVH
2025-08-11 16:00:02FORECAST20253213654.17644.09649.13600.0547244392.0247244391.373.394724439TF22.176501.176228454.9007061675400.1911518929672616134552100DRYVH
2025-08-11 12:00:02FORECAST20253213654.60842.42248.51500.0248031632.2148031631.323.534803163TF22.608505.608228454.9007061675400.20273900229716134552100DRYVH
2025-08-11 08:00:02FORECAST20253213653.52842.00847.76800.0248031632.2148031631.323.534803163TF21.528503.528228454.9007061675400.1745495053811416134552100DRYVH
2025-08-11 04:00:03FORECAST20253213654.66242.33248.49700.0255905652.2355905651.323.555590565TF22.662505.662228454.9007061675400.2042162715216916134552100DRYVH
2025-08-11 00:00:02FORECAST20253213654.80644.0649.43300.011811031.581811031.332.91181103FF22.806500.806228454.9007061675400.2081868040170816134552100DRYVH
2025-08-10 20:00:03FORECAST20253213655.1344.22249.67600.011811031.601811031.332.93181103FF23.13504.13228454.9007061675400.2172849969765216134552100DRYVH
2025-08-10 16:00:05FORECAST20253213655.74245.21250.47700.011811031.821811031.393.21181103TF23.742502.742228454.9007061675400.235081477127816134552100DRYVH
2025-08-10 12:00:02FORECAST20253213656.7546.95851.85400.1208662071.0008662071.322.320866207FF24.75513.75228454.9007061675400.266068437016891623445290DRYVH
2025-08-10 08:00:03FORECAST20253213656.55245.37450.96300.1208662071.0008662071.322.320866207FF24.552511.552228454.9007061675400.259822775155231623445290DRYVH
2025-08-10 04:00:04FORECAST20253213655.5844.88850.23400.1204725060.9304725061.322.250472506FF23.58506.58228454.9007061675400.230293939614851613435260DRYH
2025-08-10 00:00:05FORECAST20253213654.82445.33850.08100.0381889970.0381889971.321.358188997FF22.824509.824228454.9007061675400.208686297346021613415220DRYL
2025-08-09 20:00:03FORECAST20253213654.9545.42850.18900.0381889970.0381889971.321.358188997FF22.95514.95228454.9007061675400.212202440558261613415220DRYL
2025-08-09 16:00:02FORECAST20253213654.0544.88849.46900.0610236550.1410236551.321.461023655FF22.05516.05228454.9007061675400.187850174757951613425240DRYM
2025-08-09 12:00:03FORECAST20253213656.94844.52850.73800.031496080.451496081.321.77149608FF24.948499.948228454.9007061675400.272389147215571623425245DRYM
2025-08-09 08:00:02FORECAST20253213657.34443.68250.51300.031496080.461496081.321.78149608FF25.344494.344228454.9007061675400.285249900966261623325240DRYM
2025-08-09 04:00:04FORECAST20253213655.99441.12648.5600.031496080.461496081.321.78149608FF23.994492.994228454.9007061675400.242636634054481613325235DRYL
2025-08-09 00:00:03FORECAST20253213653.76241.30647.534000.061.321.38FF21.762489.762228454.9007061675400.180436380676881613315217.5DRYL
2025-08-08 20:00:02FORECAST20253213653.4241.21647.318000.061.321.38FF21.42489.42228454.9007061675400.17187400259091613315217.5DRYL
2025-08-08 16:00:02FORECAST20253213651.96240.1946.076000.061.321.38FF19.962483.962228454.9007061675400.138330231130441613315217.5DRYL
2025-08-08 12:00:02FORECAST20253213654.91440.87447.89400.0019685050.0119685051.321.331968505FF22.914487.914228454.9007061675400.211194317462941613315217.5DRYL
2025-08-08 08:00:03FORECAST20253213654.08640.80247.44400.0043307110.0343307111.331.364330711FF22.086481.086228454.9007061675400.188789917878361613315217.5DRYL
2025-08-08 04:00:04FORECAST20253213659.70241.7250.71100.0043307110.0143307111.321.334330711FF27.702498.702228454.9007061675400.367175166482191623315220DRYL
2025-08-08 00:00:03FORECAST20253213642.63839.79441.21600.0007874020.4507874021.451.900787402FF10.638468.638228454.9007061675400.0231861880356791613325235DRYL
2025-08-07 20:00:02FORECAST20253213642.67439.81241.24300.0007874020.4507874021.451.900787402FF10.674470.674228454.9007061675400.0233788131337141613325235DRYL
2025-08-07 16:00:03FORECAST20253213641.8140.0140.9100.0007874020.4907874021.451.940787402FF9.81463.81228454.9007061675400.0191104077153341613335252.5DRYMH
2025-08-07 12:00:02FORECAST20253213649.87446.02247.9480001.321.32FF17.874505.874228454.9007061675400.0985278819708411613415220DRYL
2025-08-07 08:00:03FORECAST20253213649.87446.02247.9480001.321.32FF17.874511.874228454.9007061675400.0985278819708411613415220DRYL
2025-08-07 04:00:04FORECAST20253213641.93640.47841.207000.021.441.46FF9.936483.936228454.9007061675400.019688362265091613315217.5DRYL