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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, August 15, 2025

[ Thursday, August 14, 2025 | Index | Today | Saturday, August 16, 2025 ]

DAY 319 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/16/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
VH
VERY HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 52.43°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 46.10°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 49.26°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.149
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 20
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 481

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 2.17 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.21 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.32 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.53 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 226
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 453.81 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 34

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 3
D2: 3
D3: 5
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 87.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-08-16 04:00:02OBSERVATION20253193452.4346.0999449.2649702.172.211.323.53TF20.43481.43226453.80977123269 00.1494125144281216 13355287.5DRYVH
2025-08-16 00:00:01FORECAST20253193451.18844.61847.90301.0133863741.0533863741.322.373386374FF19.188480.188226453.8097712326900.124487381716431613345270DRYH
2025-08-15 12:00:02FORECAST20253193451.09844.34847.72301.4334653411.4734653411.322.793465341FF19.098480.098226453.8097712326900.122801126629751613345270DRYH
2025-08-15 08:00:02FORECAST20253193451.02644.25847.64201.5759851031.6159851031.322.935985103TF19.026480.026226453.8097712326900.121463669809841613355287.5DRYVH
2025-08-15 04:00:03FORECAST20253193451.27844.52847.90301.1393706941.1793706941.322.499370694FF19.278480.278226453.8097712326900.126189710169741613345270DRYH
2025-08-15 00:00:01FORECAST20253193451.83644.70848.27201.0830714511.0830714511.322.403071451FF19.836478.836226453.8097712326900.13710497322391613345270DRYH
2025-08-14 20:00:01FORECAST20253193451.60244.7848.19101.0141737761.0141737761.322.334173776FF19.602478.602226453.8097712326900.132451723078071613345270DRYH
2025-08-14 16:00:02FORECAST20253193451.65645.26648.46101.0704730191.0704730191.322.390473019FF19.656478.656226453.8097712326900.133515797392311613345270DRYH
2025-08-14 12:00:02FORECAST20253193451.9845.48248.73100.9889769120.9889769121.322.308976912FF19.98478.98226453.8097712326900.14002322750741613335252.5DRYMH
2025-08-14 08:00:02FORECAST20253193451.87245.55448.71301.0385832381.0385832381.322.358583238FF19.872479.872226453.8097712326900.137830622804381613345270DRYH
2025-08-14 04:00:02FORECAST20253193452.01646.02249.01901.0610241951.0610241951.322.381024195FF20.016480.016226453.8097712326900.140759318994791613345270DRYH
2025-08-14 00:00:02FORECAST20253193451.96245.8648.91101.1523628271.1623628271.322.482362827FF19.962475.962226453.8097712326900.139656161540761613345270DRYH
2025-08-13 20:00:02FORECAST20253193451.20645.75248.47901.2311030271.2411030271.322.561103027FF19.206474.206226453.8097712326900.124826560348831613345270DRYH
2025-08-13 16:00:01FORECAST20253193451.33245.55448.44301.5618118671.5818118671.322.901811867FF19.332473.332226453.8097712326900.127218837648271613355287.5DRYVH
2025-08-13 12:00:01FORECAST20253193451.31445.44648.3801.4433078661.4733078661.322.793307866FF19.314472.314226453.8097712326900.126875150293741613345270DRYH
2025-08-13 08:00:02FORECAST20253193451.20645.55448.3801.4299220321.4499220321.322.769922032FF19.206474.206226453.8097712326900.124826560348831613345270DRYH
2025-08-13 04:00:02FORECAST20253193451.40445.37448.38901.5925205451.6125205451.322.932520545FF19.404475.404226453.8097712326900.128600042087861613355287.5DRYVH
2025-08-13 00:00:02FORECAST20253193451.83644.76248.29901.5322842921.5922842921.322.912284292FF19.836473.836226453.8097712326900.13710497322391613355287.5DRYVH
2025-08-12 20:00:01FORECAST20253193451.81844.13247.97501.5216543651.5716543651.322.891654365FF19.818472.818226453.8097712326900.136743126115491613355287.5DRYVH
2025-08-12 16:00:01FORECAST20253193451.8944.52848.20901.440945661.470945661.322.79094566FF19.89472.89226453.8097712326900.138194425647011613345270DRYH
2025-08-12 12:00:02FORECAST20253193451.4444.8748.15501.9433081361.9833081361.323.303308136TF19.44473.44226453.8097712326900.129294521069591613355287.5DRYVH
2025-08-12 08:00:02FORECAST20253193451.40444.90648.15501.9728357111.9828357111.323.302835711TF19.404473.404226453.8097712326900.128600042087861613355287.5DRYVH
2025-08-12 04:00:03FORECAST20253193451.1745.3248.24501.8759852651.8959852651.323.215985265TF19.17471.17226453.8097712326900.12414884602451613355287.5DRYVH
2025-08-12 00:00:02FORECAST20253193451.04444.7847.91201.3539377391.3639377391.322.683937739FF19.044468.044226453.8097712326900.121797072999261613345270DRYH
2025-08-11 20:00:01FORECAST20253193450.77445.21247.99301.3578747491.3578747491.322.677874749FF18.774467.774226453.8097712326900.116863088290561613345270DRYH
2025-08-11 16:00:01FORECAST20253193450.7245.10447.91201.3417330081.3917330081.322.711733008FF18.72466.72226453.8097712326900.11589348340991613345270DRYH
2025-08-11 12:00:02FORECAST20253193450.73844.1547.44401.4787409561.4787409561.322.798740956FF18.738470.738226453.8097712326900.116216050309781613345270DRYH
2025-08-11 08:00:02FORECAST20253193449.85643.86246.85901.4759850491.4759850491.322.795985049FF17.856469.856226453.8097712326900.101148724761571613345270DRYH
2025-08-11 04:00:03FORECAST20253193450.6344.29447.46201.4791346571.4791346571.322.799134657FF18.63470.63226453.8097712326900.114290154959291613345270DRYH
2025-08-11 00:00:02FORECAST20253193450.7244.16847.44400.6740161120.6840161121.322.004016112FF18.72465.72226453.8097712326900.11589348340991613335252.5DRYMH
2025-08-10 20:00:02FORECAST20253193450.66643.89847.28200.6736224110.6836224111.322.003622411FF18.666468.666226453.8097712326900.114929586631541613335252.5DRYMH
2025-08-10 16:00:04FORECAST20253193450.8145.21248.01100.8500004590.9200004591.322.240000459FF18.81466.81226453.8097712326900.117512667610451613335252.5DRYMH
2025-08-10 12:00:02FORECAST20253193453.43845.4149.42400.4629923760.4629923761.321.782992376FF21.438472.438226453.8097712326900.171933040970661613325235DRYL
2025-08-10 08:00:02FORECAST20253193451.96244.18648.07400.4629923760.4629923761.321.782992376FF19.962470.962226453.8097712326900.139656161540761613325235DRYL
2025-08-10 04:00:04FORECAST20253193451.49443.30447.39900.405512030.405512031.321.72551203FF19.494467.494226453.8097712326900.130341091351461613325235DRYL
2025-08-10 00:00:04FORECAST20253193455.8544.04249.9460001.321.32FF23.85470.85226453.8097712326900.234066263117711613315217.5DRYL
2025-08-09 20:00:02FORECAST20253193458.33444.88851.6110001.321.32FF26.334472.334226453.8097712326900.309258740407541623315220DRYL
2025-08-09 16:00:02FORECAST20253193458.87444.94251.9080001.321.32FF26.874473.874226453.8097712326900.326901475069921623315220DRYL
2025-08-09 12:00:02FORECAST20253193453.641.97247.78600.2070867260.2070867261.321.527086726FF21.6460.6226453.8097712326900.175744343821811613325235DRYL
2025-08-09 08:00:02FORECAST20253193453.2441.34247.29100.2153544470.2153544471.321.535354447FF21.24459.24226453.8097712326900.167346850993491613325235DRYL
2025-08-09 04:00:04FORECAST20253193453.0641.39647.22800.2161418490.2161418491.321.536141849FF21.06459.06226453.8097712326900.163246484476381613325235DRYL
2025-08-09 00:00:03FORECAST20253193455.59842.76449.1810001.321.32FF23.598456.598226453.8097712326900.227046067079341613315217.5DRYL
2025-08-08 20:00:02FORECAST20253193455.65243.08849.370001.321.32FF23.652456.652226453.8097712326900.228540340954211613315217.5DRYL
2025-08-08 16:00:02FORECAST20253193454.71643.37649.0460001.321.32FF22.716453.716226453.8097712326900.203430855445391613315217.5DRYL
2025-08-08 12:00:02FORECAST20253193455.6742.849.2350001.321.32FF23.67452.67226453.8097712326900.229039654985031613315217.5DRYL
2025-08-08 08:00:02FORECAST20253193453.25841.23447.24600.0181102460.0281102461.321.348110246FF21.258449.258226453.8097712326900.16776049803351613315217.5DRYL
2025-08-08 04:00:03FORECAST20253193459.95442.00850.98100.007874020.007874021.321.32787402FF27.954454.954226453.8097712326900.363337050230261623315220DRYL
2025-08-08 00:00:03FORECAST20253193450.68439.30844.99600.0208661530.1508661531.321.470866153FF18.684445.684226453.8097712326900.115250251944221613325235DRYL
2025-08-07 20:00:02FORECAST20253193450.7239.30845.01400.0208661530.1508661531.321.470866153FF18.72447.72226453.8097712326900.11589348340991613325235DRYL
2025-08-07 16:00:02FORECAST20253193448.68637.6743.17800.0625984590.1925984591.321.512598459FF16.686443.686226453.8097712326900.0834223862113021613325235DRYL
2025-08-07 12:00:02FORECAST20253193459.61245.19452.4030001.321.32FF27.612465.612226453.8097712326900.351645618092211623315220DRYL
2025-08-07 08:00:02FORECAST20253193459.61245.19452.4030001.321.32FF27.612471.612226453.8097712326900.351645618092211623315220DRYL
2025-08-07 04:00:04FORECAST20253193453.4242.11647.76800.0248031630.1448031631.321.464803163FF21.42460.42226453.8097712326900.171512836784941613325235DRYL
2025-08-07 00:00:03FORECAST20253193450.64841.6346.13900.023622060.023622060.410.43362206FF18.648462.648226453.8097712326900.114609554429941613315217.5DRYL
2025-08-06 20:00:02FORECAST20253193450.68441.95446.31900.023622060.023622060.650.67362206FF18.684459.684226453.8097712326900.115250251944221613315217.5DRYL
2025-08-06 16:00:02FORECAST20253193455.3146.68850.99900.0181102460.0181102460.650.668110246FF23.31468.31226453.8097712326900.219170125631771613315217.5DRYL
2025-08-06 12:00:03FORECAST20253193466.61444.34855.48100.0188976480.0188976480.660.678897648FF34.614481.614226453.8097712326900.602766918606391633315222.5DRYL
2025-08-06 08:00:03FORECAST20253193466.61444.34855.48100.0188976480.0188976481.141.158897648FF34.614488.614226453.8097712326900.602766918606391633315222.5DRYL
2025-08-06 04:00:04FORECAST20253193460.24244.07852.1600.0468504190.0468504191.371.416850419FF28.242488.242226453.8097712326900.373282679114491623315220DRYL
2025-08-06 00:00:03FORECAST20253193452.75446.95849.8560001.021.02FF20.754470.754226453.8097712326900.156426613335191613315217.5DRYL
2025-08-05 20:00:03FORECAST20253193451.2645.28448.2720001.011.01FF19.26456.26226453.8097712326900.125847956839451613315217.5DRYL
2025-08-05 16:00:02FORECAST20253193445.08641.25243.1690001.091.09FF13.086443.086226453.8097712326900.043340575936771613315217.5DRYL
2025-08-05 12:00:03FORECAST20253193453.40249.7351.5660000.940.94FF21.402469.402226453.8097712326900.171093287842371613315217.5DRYL
2025-08-05 08:00:03FORECAST20253193453.40249.7351.5660000.860.86FF21.402468.402226453.8097712326900.171093287842371613315217.5DRYL
2025-08-05 04:00:04FORECAST20253193451.51249.60450.5580000.830.83FF19.512461.512226453.8097712326900.130691242938991613315217.5DRYL