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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, August 13, 2025

[ Tuesday, August 12, 2025 | Index | Today | Thursday, August 14, 2025 ]

DAY 317 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/14/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 64.26°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 50.27°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 57.26°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.503
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 32
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 371

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.32 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.32 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 224
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 452.71 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 32

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 2
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 17.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-08-14 04:00:02OBSERVATION20253173264.2599650.2757.264980001.321.32FF32.25996371.25996224452.71051360617 00.5030182840943516 32215217.5DRYL
2025-08-14 00:00:01FORECAST20253173260.2647.67853.9690001.321.32FF28.26367.26224452.7105136061700.352077817094591622215215DRYL
2025-08-13 12:00:01FORECAST20253173259.37846.45452.91600.0019685050.0019685051.321.321968505FF27.378366.378224452.7105136061700.320924295510131622215215DRYL
2025-08-13 08:00:02FORECAST20253173260.76446.81453.78900.0011811030.0011811031.321.321181103FF28.764367.764224452.7105136061700.370353146297861622215215DRYL
2025-08-13 04:00:02FORECAST20253173260.83646.63453.73500.0043307110.0043307111.321.324330711FF28.836367.836224452.7105136061700.37298909125371622215215DRYL
2025-08-13 00:00:02FORECAST20253173261.86246.14854.00500.0062992160.0062992161.321.326299216FF29.862365.862224452.7105136061700.411142197077381622215215DRYL
2025-08-12 20:00:01FORECAST20253173260.90846.16653.53700.003937010.003937011.321.32393701FF28.908364.908224452.7105136061700.375630993342511622215215DRYL
2025-08-12 16:00:01FORECAST20253173261.12445.7753.44700.0062992160.0062992161.321.326299216FF29.124365.124224452.7105136061700.383591287531441622215215DRYL
2025-08-12 12:00:02FORECAST20253173261.08846.41853.75300.0062992160.0062992161.321.326299216FF29.088365.088224452.7105136061700.382261053806931622215215DRYL
2025-08-12 08:00:02FORECAST20253173261.2546.4953.8700.0019685050.0019685051.321.321968505FF29.25365.25224452.7105136061700.388257820897011622215215DRYL
2025-08-12 04:00:03FORECAST20253173260.9845.73453.35700.0015748040.0015748041.321.321574804FF28.98363.98224452.7105136061700.378278737488981622215215DRYL
2025-08-12 00:00:01FORECAST20253173260.78246.05853.4200.0015748040.0015748041.321.321574804FF28.782360.782224452.7105136061700.371011567793961622215215DRYL
2025-08-11 20:00:01FORECAST20253173260.31446.54453.42900.0027559070.0027559071.321.322755907FF28.314361.314224452.7105136061700.354020502777051622215215DRYL
2025-08-11 16:00:01FORECAST20253173260.1746.25653.21300.0023622060.0023622061.321.322362206FF28.17361.17224452.7105136061700.348848587743791622215215DRYL
2025-08-11 12:00:01FORECAST20253173260.92646.453.6630001.321.32FF28.926362.926224452.7105136061700.376292386199651622215215DRYL
2025-08-11 08:00:02FORECAST20253173260.90845.6853.2940001.321.32FF28.908362.908224452.7105136061700.375630993342511622215215DRYL
2025-08-11 04:00:03FORECAST20253173260.63846.02253.330001.321.32FF28.638362.638224452.7105136061700.365754920084661622215215DRYL
2025-08-11 00:00:02FORECAST20253173259.01846.68852.8530001.321.32FF27.018359.018224452.7105136061700.308547012192911622215215DRYL
2025-08-10 20:00:02FORECAST20253173259.55846.99453.2760001.321.32FF27.558360.558224452.7105136061700.327189480608791622215215DRYL
2025-08-10 16:00:03FORECAST20253173260.42247.46253.9420001.321.32FF28.422361.422224452.7105136061700.357917244922151622215215DRYL
2025-08-10 12:00:01FORECAST20253173260.83647.64254.2390001.321.32FF28.836361.836224452.7105136061700.37298909125371622215215DRYL
2025-08-10 08:00:02FORECAST20253173261.57446.9454.2570001.321.32FF29.574361.574224452.7105136061700.400330240410051622215215DRYL
2025-08-10 04:00:04FORECAST20253173260.9846.0453.510001.321.32FF28.98358.98224452.7105136061700.378278737488981622215215DRYL
2025-08-10 00:00:03FORECAST20253173260.15246.41853.28500.0015748040.0015748041.321.321574804FF28.152357.152224452.7105136061700.348204043936061622215215DRYL
2025-08-09 20:00:02FORECAST20253173259.3646.99453.17700.0019685050.0019685051.321.321968505FF27.36357.36224452.7105136061700.320300532377781622215215DRYL
2025-08-09 16:00:01FORECAST20253173259.66647.353.48300.0019685050.0019685051.321.321968505FF27.666357.666224452.7105136061700.330972228215481622215215DRYL
2025-08-09 12:00:02FORECAST20253173258.42446.68852.5560001.321.32FF26.424353.424224452.7105136061700.288596692721971622215215DRYL
2025-08-09 08:00:01FORECAST20253173258.33445.53651.9350001.321.32FF26.334352.334224452.7105136061700.285627668248171622215215DRYL
2025-08-09 04:00:03FORECAST20253173258.44246.56252.5020001.321.32FF26.442352.442224452.7105136061700.289192235875541622215215DRYL
2025-08-09 00:00:02FORECAST20253173257.27244.27650.7740001.321.32FF25.272345.272224452.7105136061700.251734622588781622215215DRYL
2025-08-08 20:00:01FORECAST20253173256.89444.70850.8010001.321.32FF24.894344.894224452.7105136061700.240203976482561612215212.5DRYL
2025-08-08 16:00:02FORECAST20253173254.12244.63649.3790001.321.32FF22.122343.122224452.7105136061700.164991709782961612215212.5DRYL
2025-08-08 12:00:02FORECAST20253173257.00244.6950.8460001.321.32FF25.002343.002224452.7105136061700.24346883058711612215212.5DRYL
2025-08-08 08:00:02FORECAST20253173257.88444.36651.1250001.321.32FF25.884342.884224452.7105136061700.271004486993091622215215DRYL
2025-08-08 04:00:03FORECAST20253173254.19444.2449.2170001.321.32FF22.194339.194224452.7105136061700.166729171919471612215212.5DRYL
2025-08-08 00:00:02FORECAST20253173260.22446.99453.6090001.321.32FF28.224344.224224452.7105136061700.350784829959491622215215DRYL
2025-08-07 20:00:02FORECAST20253173260.22446.99453.6090001.321.32FF28.224346.224224452.7105136061700.350784829959491622215215DRYL
2025-08-07 16:00:02FORECAST2025317325946.32852.66400.0114173290.0114173291.321.331417329FF27343224452.7105136061700.307933663236931622215215DRYL
2025-08-07 12:00:02FORECAST20253173263.73447.91255.8230001.321.32FF31.734346.734224452.7105136061700.482707952846961622215215DRYL
2025-08-07 08:00:02FORECAST20253173263.01448.03855.5260001.321.32FF31.014351.014224452.7105136061700.454987680732551622215215DRYL
2025-08-07 04:00:03FORECAST20253173262.70847.40855.0580001.321.32FF30.708351.708224452.7105136061700.44326477132781622215215DRYL
2025-08-07 00:00:03FORECAST20253173263.5949.58656.5880000.410.41FF31.59356.59224452.7105136061700.477152880913661622215215DRYL
2025-08-06 20:00:02FORECAST20253173262.83450.1856.5070000.650.65FF30.834353.834224452.7105136061700.448086436948211622215215DRYL
2025-08-06 16:00:02FORECAST20253173262.54649.22655.8860000.650.65FF30.546352.546224452.7105136061700.437077906801241622215215DRYL
2025-08-06 12:00:02FORECAST20253173262.76251.27857.020000.660.66FF30.762359.762224452.7105136061700.445330213607131622215215DRYL
2025-08-06 08:00:03FORECAST20253173265.26452.0758.6670001.141.14FF33.264367.264224452.7105136061700.541724094713691632215217.5DRYL
2025-08-06 04:00:03FORECAST20253173267.22653.660.4130001.371.37FF35.226368.226224452.7105136061700.615904476725021632215217.5DRYL
2025-08-06 00:00:02FORECAST20253173265.17451.04458.1090001.021.02FF33.174356.174224452.7105136061700.538265241491571632215217.5DRYL
2025-08-05 20:00:02FORECAST20253173263.5950.57657.0830001.011.01FF31.59344.59224452.7105136061700.477152880913661622215215DRYL
2025-08-05 16:00:02FORECAST20253173261.2548.18254.7160001.091.09FF29.25342.25224452.7105136061700.388257820897011622215215DRYL
2025-08-05 12:00:02FORECAST20253173266.7453.18659.9630000.940.94FF34.74347.74224452.7105136061700.597811525143071632215217.5DRYL
2025-08-05 08:00:02FORECAST20253173266.7453.18659.9630000.860.86FF34.74346.74224452.7105136061700.597811525143071632215217.5DRYL
2025-08-05 04:00:03FORECAST20253173263.26650.5456.9030000.830.83FF31.266345.266224452.7105136061700.464671824813331622215215DRYL
2025-08-05 00:00:02FORECAST20253173270.66458.53264.5980000.840.84FF38.664371.664224452.7105136061700.734876977309811642215140DRYM
2025-08-04 20:00:02FORECAST20253173270.75457.41664.0850000.780.78FF38.754371.754224452.7105136061700.737724403259621642215140DRYM
2025-08-04 16:00:02FORECAST20253173268.954.48261.6910000.610.61FF36.9365.9224452.7105136061700.676101206890371632215135DRYL
2025-08-04 12:00:02FORECAST20253173260.56645.51853.0420000.390.39FF28.566347.566224452.7105136061700.363135943671951622215215DRYL
2025-08-04 08:00:02FORECAST20253173261.95245.26653.6090000.350.35FF29.952348.952224452.7105136061700.414535237365321622215215DRYL
2025-08-04 04:00:04FORECAST20253173261.6145.8653.7350000.190.19FF29.61348.61224452.7105136061700.401677748736641622215215DRYL
2025-08-04 00:00:03FORECAST20253173247.9343.6145.770000.360.36FF15.93331.93224452.7105136061700.0576603937373831612215212.5DRYL
2025-08-03 20:00:02FORECAST20253173248.0243.6145.8150000.330.33FF16.02334.02224452.7105136061700.0586766190450351612215212.5DRYL
2025-08-03 16:00:03FORECAST20253173247.4841.75644.6180000.270.27FF15.48332.48224452.7105136061700.0527846966346741612215212.5DRYL
2025-08-03 12:00:03FORECAST20253173248.1145.0546.580000.240.24FF16.11329.11224452.7105136061700.0597068023775591612215212.5DRYL
2025-08-03 08:00:03FORECAST20253173255.11251.22453.1680000.290.29FF23.112351.112224452.7105136061700.189906990839671612215212.5DRYL
2025-08-03 04:00:06FORECAST20253173254.3251.54852.9340000.320.32FF22.32358.32224452.7105136061700.169797957510911612215212.5DRYL