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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, August 12, 2025

[ Monday, August 11, 2025 | Index | Today | Wednesday, August 13, 2025 ]

DAY 316 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/13/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
M
MEDIUM

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 76.94°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 61.19°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 69.07°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.890
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 45
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 307

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.32 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.32 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 223
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 452.16 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 31

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 2
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 45.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-08-13 04:00:02OBSERVATION20253163176.9400661.1900669.065060001.321.32FF44.94006306.94006223452.15774396071 00.8902323612884416 52215145DRYM
2025-08-13 00:00:02FORECAST20253163173.59856.58865.0930001.321.32FF41.598303.598223452.1577439607100.816977911894491642215140DRYM
2025-08-12 12:00:02FORECAST20253163173.6756.44465.0570001.321.32FF41.67303.67223452.1577439607100.818821243169791642215140DRYM
2025-08-12 08:00:02FORECAST20253163173.63456.31864.9760001.321.32FF41.634303.634223452.1577439607100.817901032276041642215140DRYM
2025-08-12 04:00:02FORECAST20253163173.2256.2164.7150001.321.32FF41.22303.22223452.1577439607100.807110041957791642215140DRYM
2025-08-12 00:00:01FORECAST20253163173.456.42664.9130001.321.32FF41.4300.4223452.1577439607100.811848836877741642215140DRYM
2025-08-11 20:00:01FORECAST20253163172.87857.07464.9760001.321.32FF40.878300.878223452.1577439607100.797908189288391642215140DRYM
2025-08-11 16:00:01FORECAST20253163172.91456.89464.9040001.321.32FF40.914300.914223452.1577439607100.798888972089831642215140DRYM
2025-08-11 12:00:01FORECAST20253163173.65257.90265.7770001.321.32FF41.652301.652223452.1577439607100.818361501532221642215140DRYM
2025-08-11 08:00:01FORECAST20253163174.42658.13666.2810001.321.32FF42.426302.426223452.1577439607100.837470805988731642215140DRYM
2025-08-11 04:00:02FORECAST20253163173.68858.31666.0020001.321.32FF41.688301.688223452.1577439607100.819280256948091642215140DRYM
2025-08-11 00:00:02FORECAST20253163172.98657.27265.1290001.321.32FF40.986299.986223452.1577439607100.800841971220961642215140DRYM
2025-08-10 20:00:02FORECAST20253163172.87857.12865.0030001.321.32FF40.878300.878223452.1577439607100.797908189288391642215140DRYM
2025-08-10 16:00:02FORECAST20253163172.84257.41665.1290001.321.32FF40.842300.842223452.1577439607100.796924555747041642215140DRYM
2025-08-10 12:00:01FORECAST20253163172.6857.8365.2550001.321.32FF40.68300.68223452.1577439607100.792463026965451642215140DRYM
2025-08-10 08:00:02FORECAST20253163172.53658.31665.4260001.321.32FF40.536299.536223452.1577439607100.78844911064741642215140DRYM
2025-08-10 04:00:04FORECAST20253163172.3257.8365.0750001.321.32FF40.32298.32223452.1577439607100.782343947367531642215140DRYM
2025-08-10 00:00:03FORECAST20253163172.46457.34464.9040001.321.32FF40.464297.464223452.1577439607100.786425259034931642215140DRYM
2025-08-09 20:00:02FORECAST20253163173.14857.70465.4260001.321.32FF41.148298.148223452.1577439607100.805194333597581642215140DRYM
2025-08-09 16:00:01FORECAST20253163173.458.49665.9480001.321.32FF41.4298.4223452.1577439607100.811848836877741642215140DRYM
2025-08-09 12:00:02FORECAST20253163172.03256.67864.3550001.321.32FF40.032295.032223452.1577439607100.774047970775681642215140DRYM
2025-08-09 08:00:01FORECAST20253163170.37655.2262.79800.0007874020.0007874021.321.320787402FF38.376294.376223452.1577439607100.723040494802761642215140DRYM
2025-08-09 04:00:03FORECAST20253163169.90854.10462.00600.0007874020.0007874021.321.320787402FF37.908293.908223452.1577439607100.707668537625061642215140DRYM
2025-08-09 00:00:02FORECAST20253163167.76651.56659.6660001.321.32FF35.766287.766223452.1577439607100.632774522364161632215217.5DRYL
2025-08-08 20:00:01FORECAST20253163168.0952.0760.080001.321.32FF36.09288.09223452.1577439607100.644523973913531632215135DRYL
2025-08-08 16:00:02FORECAST20253163169.4452.73661.0880001.321.32FF37.44289.44223452.1577439607100.691911590345051632215135DRYL
2025-08-08 12:00:01FORECAST20253163168.82851.7160.2690001.321.32FF36.828285.828223452.1577439607100.670764638641961632215135DRYL
2025-08-08 08:00:02FORECAST20253163167.89252.01659.9540001.321.32FF35.892284.892223452.1577439607100.637359243430331632215217.5DRYL
2025-08-08 04:00:03FORECAST20253163166.99250.4558.7210001.321.32FF34.992284.992223452.1577439607100.604217546004071632215217.5DRYL
2025-08-08 00:00:02FORECAST20253163165.01252.28658.6490001.321.32FF33.012284.012223452.1577439607100.5289356069251632215217.5DRYL
2025-08-07 20:00:02FORECAST20253163165.01252.26858.640001.321.32FF33.012286.012223452.1577439607100.5289356069251632215217.5DRYL
2025-08-07 16:00:02FORECAST20253163161.59250.48656.0390001.321.32FF29.592283.592223452.1577439607100.398011790039611622215215DRYL
2025-08-07 12:00:02FORECAST20253163160.04448.21854.1310001.321.32FF28.044283.044223452.1577439607100.341504375299791622215215DRYL
2025-08-07 08:00:02FORECAST20253163165.4849.6457.560001.321.32FF33.48288.48223452.1577439607100.54692723410881632215217.5DRYL
2025-08-07 04:00:03FORECAST20253163165.60649.6457.6230001.321.32FF33.606288.606223452.1577439607100.551756270289771632215217.5DRYL
2025-08-07 00:00:03FORECAST20253163171.25857.36264.310000.410.41FF39.258293.258223452.1577439607100.750891119198991642215140DRYM
2025-08-06 20:00:02FORECAST20253163170.3456.73263.5360000.650.65FF38.34291.34223452.1577439607100.721872202134221642215140DRYM
2025-08-06 16:00:01FORECAST20253163168.77454.96861.8710000.650.65FF36.774289.774223452.1577439607100.668870933869681632215135DRYL
2025-08-06 12:00:02FORECAST20253163172.33857.2964.8140000.660.66FF40.338297.338223452.1577439607100.782856554478161642215140DRYM
2025-08-06 08:00:03FORECAST20253163174.10258.78466.4430001.141.14FF42.102302.102223452.1577439607100.829636202061811642215140DRYM
2025-08-06 04:00:03FORECAST20253163173.5858.3765.9750001.371.37FF41.58300.58223452.1577439607100.816515261274381642215140DRYM
2025-08-06 00:00:02FORECAST20253163171.02454.10462.5640001.021.02FF39.024291.024223452.1577439607100.743649957661061642215140DRYM
2025-08-05 20:00:02FORECAST20253163167.5551.87259.7110001.011.01FF35.55280.55223452.1577439607100.624871129571521632215217.5DRYL
2025-08-05 16:00:02FORECAST20253163168.48652.5260.5030001.091.09FF36.486281.486223452.1577439607100.658699139965051632215135DRYL
2025-08-05 12:00:02FORECAST20253163169.76452.50261.1330000.940.94FF37.764280.764223452.1577439607100.702860205877691642215140DRYM
2025-08-05 08:00:02FORECAST20253163169.74652.62861.1870000.860.86FF37.746279.746223452.1577439607100.702256633227771642215140DRYM
2025-08-05 04:00:03FORECAST20253163169.47655.00462.240000.830.83FF37.476282.476223452.1577439607100.693136811768011632215135DRYL
2025-08-05 00:00:02FORECAST20253163175.8359.32467.5770000.840.84FF43.83300.83223452.1577439607100.868677237646461652215145DRYM
2025-08-04 20:00:02FORECAST20253163176.22662.43869.3320000.780.78FF44.226301.226223452.1577439607100.87667853488181652215145DRYM
2025-08-04 16:00:02FORECAST20253163172.21257.45264.8320000.610.61FF40.212297.212223452.1577439607100.779253705003041642215140DRYM
2025-08-04 12:00:02FORECAST20253163164.2249.94657.0830000.390.39FF32.22287.22223452.1577439607100.498372643646631622215215DRYL
2025-08-04 08:00:02FORECAST20253163163.60849.60456.6060000.350.35FF31.608286.608223452.1577439607100.474753035733311622215215DRYL
2025-08-04 04:00:03FORECAST20253163163.48250.10856.7950000.190.19FF31.482287.482223452.1577439607100.469898445333371622215215DRYL
2025-08-04 00:00:02FORECAST20253163162.20448.88455.5440000.360.36FF30.204284.204223452.1577439607100.421034105688531622215215DRYL
2025-08-03 20:00:02FORECAST20253163162.2449.04655.6430000.330.33FF30.24286.24223452.1577439607100.422397632432981622215215DRYL
2025-08-03 16:00:03FORECAST20253163162.31248.57855.4450000.270.27FF30.312285.312223452.1577439607100.42512746140131622215215DRYL
2025-08-03 12:00:03FORECAST20253163165.0347.71456.3720000.240.24FF33.03281.03223452.1577439607100.529628923899751632215217.5DRYL
2025-08-03 08:00:03FORECAST20253163170.14251.06260.6020000.290.29FF38.142296.142223452.1577439607100.715404019932561642215140DRYM
2025-08-03 04:00:05FORECAST20253163172.55451.67462.1140000.320.32FF40.554303.554223452.1577439607100.78895331697391642215140DRYM
2025-08-03 00:00:03FORECAST20253163160.9852.5256.750000.350.35FF28.98287.98223452.1577439607100.375339194244131622215215DRYL
2025-08-02 20:00:03FORECAST20253163160.9852.5256.750000.350.35FF28.98290.98223452.1577439607100.375339194244131622215215DRYL
2025-08-02 16:00:02FORECAST20253163154.64450.64852.6460000.320.32FF22.644286.644223452.1577439607100.17586213487491612215212.5DRYL
2025-08-02 12:00:03FORECAST20253163154.37449.8252.0970000.260.26FF22.374295.374223452.1577439607100.169181487900111612215212.5DRYL
2025-08-02 08:00:03FORECAST20253163154.37449.8252.0970000.250.25FF22.374297.374223452.1577439607100.169181487900111612215212.5DRYL
2025-08-02 04:00:04FORECAST20253163162.63661.0761.8530000.220.22FF30.636323.636223452.1577439607100.437454314588421622215215DRYL