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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, August 11, 2025

[ Sunday, August 10, 2025 | Index | Today | Tuesday, August 12, 2025 ]

DAY 315 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/12/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
M
MEDIUM

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 77.57°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 60.52°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 69.04°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.861
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 46
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 230

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.32 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.32 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 222
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 451.60 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 30

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 2
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 45.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-08-12 04:00:02OBSERVATION20253153077.5700660.5199269.044990001.321.32FF45.57006229.57006222451.60286979454 00.8607951384224816 52215145DRYM
2025-08-12 00:00:01FORECAST20253153075.36255.05865.210001.321.32FF43.362227.362222451.6028697945400.816366450333011642215140DRYM
2025-08-11 12:00:01FORECAST20253153075.8354.93265.3810001.321.32FF43.83227.83222451.6028697945400.826451447156311642215140DRYM
2025-08-11 08:00:01FORECAST20253153076.20854.82465.5160001.321.32FF44.208228.208222451.6028697945400.834335123291971642215140DRYM
2025-08-11 04:00:02FORECAST20253153075.99255.6765.8310001.321.32FF43.992227.992222451.6028697945400.829858883470621642215140DRYM
2025-08-11 00:00:02FORECAST20253153075.84855.68865.7680001.321.32FF43.848226.848222451.6028697945400.826832176333841642215140DRYM
2025-08-10 20:00:02FORECAST20253153075.95656.40866.1820001.321.32FF43.956227.956222451.6028697945400.829105395630031642215140DRYM
2025-08-10 16:00:02FORECAST20253153075.81256.33666.0740001.321.32FF43.812227.812222451.6028697945400.826070187002271642215140DRYM
2025-08-10 12:00:01FORECAST20253153075.57856.87666.2270001.321.32FF43.578227.578222451.6028697945400.82106553478631642215140DRYM
2025-08-10 08:00:02FORECAST20253153075.77657.86666.8210001.321.32FF43.776226.776222451.6028697945400.825306074165161642215140DRYM
2025-08-10 04:00:03FORECAST20253153075.88457.43466.6590001.321.32FF43.884225.884222451.6028697945400.827592041373661642215140DRYM
2025-08-10 00:00:02FORECAST20253153075.70457.52466.6140001.321.32FF43.704224.704222451.6028697945400.82377148131641642215140DRYM
2025-08-09 20:00:02FORECAST20253153075.86657.9266.8930001.321.32FF43.866224.866222451.6028697945400.827212374437821642215140DRYM
2025-08-09 16:00:01FORECAST20253153075.61457.95666.7850001.321.32FF43.614224.614222451.6028697945400.821841311083281642215140DRYM
2025-08-09 12:00:02FORECAST20253153074.80457.68666.2450001.321.32FF42.804222.804222451.6028697945400.803876308470421642215140DRYM
2025-08-09 08:00:01FORECAST20253153074.60657.18265.8940001.321.32FF42.606223.606222451.6028697945400.79932356668471642215140DRYM
2025-08-09 04:00:03FORECAST20253153074.5757.5666.0650001.321.32FF42.57223.57222451.6028697945400.798489045081531642215140DRYM
2025-08-09 00:00:02FORECAST20253153074.22858.166.1640001.321.32FF42.228220.228222451.6028697945400.790458091797721642215140DRYM
2025-08-08 20:00:01FORECAST20253153074.49858.33466.4160001.321.32FF42.498220.498222451.6028697945400.796813789083551642215140DRYM
2025-08-08 16:00:02FORECAST20253153074.37258.2866.3260001.321.32FF42.372220.372222451.6028697945400.793862205942051642215140DRYM
2025-08-08 12:00:01FORECAST20253153072.8657.50665.1830001.321.32FF40.86216.86222451.6028697945400.756511408722871642215140DRYM
2025-08-08 08:00:02FORECAST20253153072.33857.264.7690001.321.32FF40.338217.338222451.6028697945400.742816601980851642215140DRYM
2025-08-08 04:00:03FORECAST20253153073.27456.87665.0750001.321.32FF41.274218.274222451.6028697945400.767086669959071642215140DRYM
2025-08-08 00:00:02FORECAST20253153071.67256.1263.8960001.321.32FF39.672218.672222451.6028697945400.724780553103321642215140DRYM
2025-08-07 20:00:01FORECAST20253153071.67255.41863.5450001.321.32FF39.672220.672222451.6028697945400.724780553103321642215140DRYM
2025-08-07 16:00:02FORECAST20253153070.91655.70663.3110001.321.32FF38.916221.916222451.6028697945400.703581268569581642215140DRYM
2025-08-07 12:00:02FORECAST20253153070.68254.26662.4740001.321.32FF38.682222.682222451.6028697945400.696871256900581632215135DRYL
2025-08-07 08:00:02FORECAST20253153071.11454.8662.9870001.321.32FF39.114223.114222451.6028697945400.709205269795141642215140DRYM
2025-08-07 04:00:03FORECAST20253153071.00654.82462.9150001.321.32FF39.006223.006222451.6028697945400.706143807566521642215140DRYM
2025-08-07 00:00:03FORECAST20253153073.2257.45265.3360000.410.41FF41.22222.22222451.6028697945400.765721897234121642215140DRYM
2025-08-06 20:00:02FORECAST20253153073.41857.70465.5610000.650.65FF41.418221.418222451.6028697945400.770704419133921642215140DRYM
2025-08-06 16:00:01FORECAST20253153073.2257.6565.4350000.650.65FF41.22221.22222451.6028697945400.765721897234121642215140DRYM
2025-08-06 12:00:02FORECAST20253153075.50658.42466.9650000.660.66FF43.506224.506222451.6028697945400.819507630987431642215140DRYM
2025-08-06 08:00:02FORECAST20253153076.158.85667.4780001.141.14FF44.1228.1222451.6028697945400.832106582407081642215140DRYM
2025-08-06 04:00:03FORECAST20253153075.39858.65867.0280001.371.37FF43.398227.398222451.6028697945400.817154914141941642215140DRYM
2025-08-06 00:00:02FORECAST20253153073.52657.81265.6690001.021.02FF41.526219.526222451.6028697945400.773396961880241642215140DRYM
2025-08-05 20:00:02FORECAST20253153069.5355.8562.690001.011.01FF37.53212.53222451.6028697945400.662896633485261632215135DRYL
2025-08-05 16:00:02FORECAST20253153069.54855.65262.60001.091.09FF37.548212.548222451.6028697945400.663438791700341632215135DRYL
2025-08-05 12:00:02FORECAST20253153070.39456.26463.3290000.940.94FF38.394211.394222451.6028697945400.688520950392681632215135DRYL
2025-08-05 08:00:02FORECAST20253153071.34856.51663.9320000.860.86FF39.348210.348222451.6028697945400.715786826176851642215140DRYM
2025-08-05 04:00:03FORECAST20253153072.19456.5764.3820000.830.83FF40.194213.194222451.6028697945400.738969556750021642215140DRYM
2025-08-05 00:00:02FORECAST20253153074.6657.45266.0560000.840.84FF42.66224.66222451.6028697945400.80057145991591642215140DRYM
2025-08-04 20:00:02FORECAST20253153075.8357.68666.7580000.780.78FF43.83224.83222451.6028697945400.826451447156311642215140DRYM
2025-08-04 16:00:02FORECAST20253153073.43654.71664.0760000.610.61FF41.436225.436222451.6028697945400.771154415866921642215140DRYM
2025-08-04 12:00:02FORECAST20253153070.9754.9562.960000.390.39FF38.97222.97222451.6028697945400.705120020569161642215140DRYM
2025-08-04 08:00:02FORECAST20253153069.94453.4261.6820000.350.35FF37.944222.944222451.6028697945400.675278707983471632215135DRYL
2025-08-04 04:00:03FORECAST20253153068.59452.5260.5570000.190.19FF36.594223.594222451.6028697945400.634261823622841632215135DRYL
2025-08-04 00:00:02FORECAST20253153068.07252.37660.2240000.360.36FF36.072222.072222451.6028697945400.617948860676461632215135DRYL
2025-08-03 20:00:02FORECAST20253153069.06253.9661.5110000.330.33FF37.062224.062222451.6028697945400.648684676852071632215135DRYL
2025-08-03 16:00:02FORECAST20253153069.78255.09462.4380000.270.27FF37.782222.782222451.6028697945400.670455615735431632215135DRYL
2025-08-03 12:00:02FORECAST20253153067.49651.87259.6840000.240.24FF35.496216.496222451.6028697945400.599703343356951632215217.5DRYL
2025-08-03 08:00:03FORECAST20253153070.17852.73661.4570000.290.29FF38.178226.178222451.6028697945400.682193688685691632215135DRYL
2025-08-03 04:00:05FORECAST20253153071.6952.77262.2310000.320.32FF39.69230.69222451.6028697945400.725276071746681642215140DRYM
2025-08-03 00:00:03FORECAST20253153072.75253.3363.0410000.350.35FF40.752226.752222451.6028697945400.753710658358241642215140DRYM
2025-08-02 20:00:03FORECAST20253153072.75253.3363.0410000.350.35FF40.752229.752222451.6028697945400.753710658358241642215140DRYM
2025-08-02 16:00:02FORECAST20253153071.43852.8862.1590000.320.32FF39.438232.438222451.6028697945400.718299113087781642215140DRYM
2025-08-02 12:00:03FORECAST20253153073.38255.2264.3010000.260.26FF41.382241.382222451.6028697945400.769802941679551642215140DRYM
2025-08-02 08:00:03FORECAST20253153073.38255.2264.3010000.250.25FF41.382243.382222451.6028697945400.769802941679551642215140DRYM
2025-08-02 04:00:04FORECAST20253153088.89856.4872.6890000.220.22FF56.898260.898222451.6028697945400.978376645491751652215145DRYM
2025-08-02 00:00:03FORECAST20253153065.22857.95661.5920000.150.15FF33.228233.228222451.6028697945400.526101979707961632215217.5DRYL
2025-08-01 20:00:02FORECAST20253153065.17458.62261.8980000.150.15FF33.174230.174222451.6028697945400.524328297475681632215217.5DRYL
2025-08-01 16:00:02FORECAST20253153063.1457.81260.4760000.20.2FF31.14220.14222451.6028697945400.457481699030471622215215DRYL
2025-08-01 12:00:03FORECAST20253153058.35253.02455.6880000.230.23FF26.352230.352222451.6028697945400.30790965864341622215215DRYL
2025-08-01 08:00:03FORECAST20253153058.35253.02455.6880000.240.24FF26.352230.352222451.6028697945400.30790965864341622215215DRYL
2025-08-01 04:00:05FORECAST20253153048.1146.90447.5070000.280.28FF16.11219.11222451.6028697945400.088935636645061612215212.5DRYL