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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, August 9, 2025

[ Friday, August 8, 2025 | Index | Today | Sunday, August 10, 2025 ]

DAY 313 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/10/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 65.35°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 47.21°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 56.28°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.520
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 33
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 200

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.32 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.32 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 220
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 450.49 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 28

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 2
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 17.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-08-10 04:00:03OBSERVATION20253132865.3500447.2156.280020001.321.32FF33.35004200.35004220450.48677582001 00.5202666322480316 32215217.5DRYL
2025-08-10 00:00:01FORECAST20253132862.99644.52853.7620001.321.32FF30.996197.996220450.4867758200100.42710680337371622115212.5DRYL
2025-08-09 12:00:02FORECAST20253132863.17644.34853.7620001.321.32FF31.176198.176220450.4867758200100.434153707200981622115212.5DRYL
2025-08-09 08:00:01FORECAST20253132863.69844.76254.230001.321.32FF31.698198.698220450.4867758200100.45470044716411622115212.5DRYL
2025-08-09 04:00:03FORECAST20253132863.62644.94254.2840001.321.32FF31.626198.626220450.4867758200100.451857924136591622115212.5DRYL
2025-08-09 00:00:02FORECAST20253132863.8644.8754.3650001.321.32FF31.86195.86220450.4867758200100.461104391519831622115212.5DRYL
2025-08-08 20:00:01FORECAST20253132863.51845.64454.5810001.321.32FF31.518195.518220450.4867758200100.44759880785671622115212.5DRYL
2025-08-08 16:00:01FORECAST20253132863.89645.57254.7340001.321.32FF31.896195.896220450.4867758200100.462528920410291622115212.5DRYL
2025-08-08 12:00:01FORECAST20253132862.97845.48254.230001.321.32FF30.978194.978220450.4867758200100.426403351960461622115212.5DRYL
2025-08-08 08:00:02FORECAST20253132862.67244.70853.690001.321.32FF30.672195.672220450.4867758200100.41448225809821622115212.5DRYL
2025-08-08 04:00:02FORECAST20253132862.81644.83453.8250001.321.32FF30.816195.816220450.4867758200100.420083081908661622115212.5DRYL
2025-08-08 00:00:02FORECAST20253132863.12244.45653.7890001.321.32FF31.122198.122220450.4867758200100.432037332202991622115212.5DRYL
2025-08-07 20:00:01FORECAST20253132863.12244.56453.8430001.321.32FF31.122200.122220450.4867758200100.432037332202991622215215DRYL
2025-08-07 16:00:02FORECAST20253132863.5945.4154.50001.321.32FF31.59201.59220450.4867758200100.450437578276761622215215DRYL
2025-08-07 12:00:01FORECAST20253132864.16645.78854.9770001.321.32FF32.166202.166220450.4867758200100.473226953605451622215215DRYL
2025-08-07 08:00:02FORECAST20253132864.3145.73455.0220001.321.32FF32.31202.31220450.4867758200100.47894097279981622215215DRYL
2025-08-07 04:00:03FORECAST20253132864.02245.44654.7340001.321.32FF32.022202.022220450.4867758200100.467518438027121622215215DRYL
2025-08-07 00:00:02FORECAST20253132863.03245.66254.3470000.410.41FF31.032199.032220450.4867758200100.428514399538921622215215DRYL
2025-08-06 20:00:01FORECAST20253132863.42845.64454.5360000.650.65FF31.428199.428220450.4867758200100.444054132395151622215215DRYL
2025-08-06 16:00:01FORECAST20253132863.01445.64454.3290000.650.65FF31.014199.014220450.4867758200100.427810486628931622215215DRYL
2025-08-06 12:00:02FORECAST20253132863.7745.12254.446000.010.650.66FF31.77198.77220450.4867758200100.457545291671371622115212.5DRYL
2025-08-06 08:00:02FORECAST20253132863.53645.48254.509000.011.131.14FF31.536200.536220450.4867758200100.448308254683391622215215DRYL
2025-08-06 04:00:03FORECAST20253132863.57245.12254.347000.011.361.37FF31.572200.572220450.4867758200100.44972764213861622215215DRYL
2025-08-06 00:00:02FORECAST20253132863.545.0554.275000.0211.02FF31.5195.5220450.4867758200100.446889528621561622115212.5DRYL
2025-08-05 20:00:02FORECAST20253132862.56444.92453.744000.020.991.01FF30.564194.564220450.4867758200100.410292953883981622115212.5DRYL
2025-08-05 16:00:01FORECAST20253132862.99644.56453.78000.021.071.09FF30.996194.996220450.4867758200100.42710680337371622115212.5DRYL
2025-08-05 12:00:02FORECAST20253132862.5144.13253.321000.040.90.94FF30.51192.51220450.4867758200100.408202101871451622115212.5DRYL
2025-08-05 08:00:02FORECAST20253132861.84444.3353.087000.040.820.86FF29.844190.844220450.4867758200100.382647060872121622115212.5DRYL
2025-08-05 04:00:03FORECAST20253132861.59244.34852.97000.030.80.83FF29.592193.592220450.4867758200100.37310277761341622115212.5DRYL
2025-08-05 00:00:02FORECAST20253132863.24847.31855.283000.020.820.84FF31.248202.248220450.4867758200100.436978468419541622215215DRYL
2025-08-04 20:00:02FORECAST20253132863.19447.82255.508000.020.760.78FF31.194202.194220450.4867758200100.434859588220111622215215DRYL
2025-08-04 16:00:02FORECAST20253132863.08647.89455.49000.020.590.61FF31.086206.086220450.4867758200100.430627494291881622215215DRYL
2025-08-04 12:00:02FORECAST20253132862.70848.57855.643000.020.370.39FF30.708206.708220450.4867758200100.415880882140771622215215DRYL
2025-08-04 08:00:02FORECAST20253132861.9749.17255.571000.030.320.35FF29.97208.97220450.4867758200100.387446468008371622215215DRYL
2025-08-04 04:00:03FORECAST20253132863.06849.20856.138000.030.160.19FF31.068212.068220450.4867758200100.429922905563121622215215DRYL
2025-08-04 00:00:02FORECAST20253132863.28448.75856.021000.10.260.36FF31.284211.284220450.4867758200100.438392064042351622225230DRYL
2025-08-03 20:00:02FORECAST20253132861.6148.5655.085000.140.190.33FF29.61209.61220450.4867758200100.37378201484211622225230DRYL
2025-08-03 16:00:02FORECAST20253132860.94447.73254.338000.130.140.27FF28.944206.944220450.4867758200100.348927573541041622225230DRYL
2025-08-03 12:00:02FORECAST20253132860.844.5152.655000.160.080.24FF28.8204.8220450.4867758200100.343633550779361622225230DRYL
2025-08-03 08:00:02FORECAST20253132862.18644.34853.267000.170.120.29FF30.186209.186220450.4867758200100.395713787541671622225230DRYL
2025-08-03 04:00:05FORECAST20253132862.63643.86253.249000.170.150.32FF30.636210.636220450.4867758200100.413084717300721622225230DRYL
2025-08-03 00:00:03FORECAST20253132863.66244.72654.194000.160.190.35FF31.662203.662220450.4867758200100.453278886439811622225230DRYL
2025-08-02 20:00:02FORECAST20253132866.99242.96254.977000.160.190.35FF34.992206.992220450.4867758200100.584896263930941632225235DRYL
2025-08-02 16:00:02FORECAST20253132868.41444.49256.453000.140.180.32FF36.414210.414220450.4867758200100.639128860336961632225170DRYH
2025-08-02 12:00:02FORECAST20253132868.7246.54457.632000.040.220.26FF36.72216.72220450.4867758200100.650482360284591632215135DRYL
2025-08-02 08:00:03FORECAST20253132868.7249.20858.964000.040.210.25FF36.72218.72220450.4867758200100.650482360284591632215135DRYL
2025-08-02 04:00:04FORECAST20253132867.74849.0158.379000.030.190.22FF35.748219.748220450.4867758200100.614002821538351632215217.5DRYL
2025-08-02 00:00:02FORECAST20253132865.67847.37256.525000.080.070.15FF33.678217.678220450.4867758200100.533273910134511632215217.5DRYL
2025-08-01 20:00:02FORECAST20253132865.26446.77856.021000.080.070.15FF33.264216.264220450.4867758200100.516850040411161632215217.5DRYL
2025-08-01 16:00:02FORECAST20253132865.06646.54455.805000.110.090.2FF33.066208.066220450.4867758200100.508983302213431632225235DRYL
2025-08-01 12:00:03FORECAST20253132868.95449.13659.045000.220.010.23FF36.954214.954220450.4867758200100.659075191781881632225170DRYH
2025-08-01 08:00:02FORECAST20253132868.95449.06459.009000.220.020.24FF36.954214.954220450.4867758200100.659075191781881632225170DRYH
2025-08-01 04:00:05FORECAST20253132868.97250.43259.702000.210.070.28FF36.972222.972220450.4867758200100.659732844298731632225170DRYH
2025-08-01 00:00:02FORECAST20253132870.19652.44861.322000.330.190.52FF38.196219.196220450.4867758200100.703227163769621642225180DRYVH
2025-07-31 20:00:02FORECAST20253132870.08852.21461.151000.330.240.57FF38.088221.088220450.4867758200100.699492895235411642225180DRYVH
2025-07-31 16:00:02FORECAST20253132869.81851.96260.89000.330.310.64FF37.818220.818220450.4867758200100.690065801754991632225170DRYH
2025-07-31 12:00:02FORECAST20253132868.05444.94256.49800.0244094620.2444094620.120.364409462FF36.054221.054220450.4867758200100.625613889522741632225170DRYH
2025-07-31 08:00:03FORECAST20253132868.05444.92456.48900.0244094620.2444094620.210.454409462FF36.054221.054220450.4867758200100.625613889522741632225170DRYH
2025-07-31 04:00:04FORECAST20253132868.9945.87857.43400.0244094620.1144094620.190.304409462FF36.99222.99220450.4867758200100.660390011611481632225170DRYH
2025-07-31 00:00:02FORECAST20253132852.749.96451.332000.270.120.39FF20.7206.7220450.4867758200100.113125492643561612225225DRYL
2025-07-30 20:00:03FORECAST20253132852.749.98251.341000.250.140.39FF20.7213.7220450.4867758200100.113125492643561612225225DRYL
2025-07-30 16:00:03FORECAST20253132850.57644.29447.435000.450.010.46FF18.576207.576220450.4867758200100.0774964520404361612225225DRYL
2025-07-30 12:00:03FORECAST20253132845.93242.00843.97000.60.130.73FF13.932202.932220450.4867758200100.0296125826869341612235237.5DRYL
2025-07-30 08:00:03FORECAST20253132845.93242.00843.97000.580.180.76FF13.932197.932220450.4867758200100.0296125826869341612135230DRYL
2025-07-30 04:00:04FORECAST20253132845.35644.13244.74400.0283464720.7883464720.160.948346472FF13.356192.356220450.4867758200100.0259357541411612135230DRYL