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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, August 8, 2025

[ Thursday, August 7, 2025 | Index | Today | Saturday, August 9, 2025 ]

DAY 312 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/09/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 61.01°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 37.31°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 49.16°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.385
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 29
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 200

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.28 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.04 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.32 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 219
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 449.93 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 27

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 2
D2: 2
D3: 4
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 60.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-08-09 04:00:02OBSERVATION20253122761.0100637.3149.16003001.280.041.32FF29.01006200.01006219449.92553989522 00.3853630171194616 22245260DRYH
2025-08-09 00:00:02FORECAST20253122758.31639.0248.668001.280.041.32FF26.316197.316219449.9255398952200.293776531306111622145250DRYMH
2025-08-08 12:00:01FORECAST20253122758.29838.71448.506001.280.041.32FF26.298197.298219449.9255398952200.293199338243991622145250DRYMH
2025-08-08 08:00:02FORECAST20253122758.80238.5748.686001.280.041.32FF26.802197.802219449.9255398952200.309555231793681622145250DRYMH
2025-08-08 04:00:02FORECAST20253122758.96438.96648.965001.280.041.32FF26.964197.964219449.9255398952200.314895745152171622145250DRYMH
2025-08-08 00:00:02FORECAST20253122759.39638.04848.722001.280.041.32FF27.396200.396219449.9255398952200.329324985363561622245260DRYH
2025-08-07 20:00:01FORECAST20253122759.21638.06648.641001.280.041.32FF27.216202.216219449.9255398952200.323280295076971622245260DRYH
2025-08-07 16:00:02FORECAST20253122759.75639.75849.757001.280.041.32FF27.756202.756219449.9255398952200.34154770804561622245260DRYH
2025-08-07 12:00:01FORECAST20253122760.27840.87450.576001.280.041.32FF28.278203.278219449.9255398952200.359566596639211622245260DRYH
2025-08-07 08:00:02FORECAST20253122760.29640.92850.612001.280.041.32FF28.296203.296219449.9255398952200.360193817661622245260DRYH
2025-08-07 04:00:02FORECAST20253122760.24240.85650.549001.280.041.32FF28.242203.242219449.9255398952200.358313289853311622245260DRYH
2025-08-07 00:00:02FORECAST20253122760.45841.0950.774000.370.040.41FF28.458201.458219449.9255398952200.365855558554551622225230DRYL
2025-08-06 20:00:01FORECAST20253122760.04441.2750.657000.610.040.65FF28.044201.044219449.9255398952200.351447667276661622235245DRYM
2025-08-06 16:00:01FORECAST20253122760.13441.79250.963000.610.040.65FF28.134201.134219449.9255398952200.354562561400431622235245DRYM
2025-08-06 12:00:02FORECAST20253122759.9941.28850.639000.620.040.66FF27.99199.99219449.9255398952200.349583489662161622235245DRYM
2025-08-06 08:00:02FORECAST20253122760.24241.88251.062001.10.041.14FF28.242202.242219449.9255398952200.358313289853311622245260DRYH
2025-08-06 04:00:02FORECAST20253122760.09841.64850.873001.330.041.37FF28.098202.098219449.9255398952200.353315423011971622245260DRYH
2025-08-06 00:00:02FORECAST20253122759.2741.88250.576000.980.041.02FF27.27197.27219449.9255398952200.325088905463581622135237.5DRYL
2025-08-05 20:00:02FORECAST20253122759.4541.03650.243000.970.041.01FF27.45197.45219449.9255398952200.331147212354611622135237.5DRYL
2025-08-05 16:00:01FORECAST20253122759.10841.46850.288001.050.041.09FF27.108197.108219449.9255398952200.319675601717691622145250DRYMH
2025-08-05 12:00:02FORECAST20253122757.86640.89249.379000.90.040.94FF25.866194.866219449.9255398952200.27950700730511622135237.5DRYL
2025-08-05 08:00:02FORECAST20253122757.34440.42448.884000.820.040.86FF25.344194.344219449.9255398952200.26338743467811622135237.5DRYL
2025-08-05 04:00:02FORECAST20253122758.17240.74849.46000.790.040.83FF26.172197.172219449.9255398952200.289173772473311622135237.5DRYL
2025-08-05 00:00:01FORECAST20253122760.47642.00851.242000.8400.84FF28.476204.476219449.9255398952200.36648647377111622235245DRYM
2025-08-04 20:00:02FORECAST20253122759.37841.75650.567000.7800.78FF27.378204.378219449.9255398952200.328718472793751622235245DRYM
2025-08-04 16:00:01FORECAST20253122761.23242.18851.71000.6100.61FF29.232208.232219449.9255398952200.393291082526931622235245DRYM
2025-08-04 12:00:02FORECAST20253122761.46642.47651.971000.3900.39FF29.466209.466219449.9255398952200.401698068598591622225230DRYL
2025-08-04 08:00:02FORECAST20253122760.76442.92651.845000.3500.35FF28.764211.764219449.9255398952200.376629122243131622225230DRYL
2025-08-04 04:00:03FORECAST20253122761.35843.26852.313000.1900.19FF29.358214.358219449.9255398952200.397812011681431622225230DRYL
2025-08-04 00:00:02FORECAST20253122760.58442.31451.449000.3600.36FF28.584212.584219449.9255398952200.370279488278371622225230DRYL
2025-08-03 20:00:02FORECAST20253122760.36842.13451.251000.3300.33FF28.368213.368219449.9255398952200.362706450093271622225230DRYL
2025-08-03 16:00:02FORECAST20253122759.30641.23450.27000.2700.27FF27.306211.306219449.9255398952200.326296941118331622225230DRYL
2025-08-03 12:00:02FORECAST20253122755.440.02847.71400.0547244390.24472443900.244724439FF23.4209.4219449.9255398952200.207804239189691612225225DRYL
2025-08-03 08:00:02FORECAST20253122754.91439.14647.0300.0566929440.2766929440.010.286692944FF22.914211.914219449.9255398952200.19507300725821612225225DRYL
2025-08-03 04:00:04FORECAST20253122754.33839.23646.78700.0610236550.3110236550.010.321023655FF22.338213.338219449.9255398952200.180612510928871612225225DRYL
2025-08-03 00:00:02FORECAST20253122755.74239.1147.42600.0070866180.3370866180.010.347086618FF23.742204.742219449.9255398952200.217049786026641612225225DRYL
2025-08-02 20:00:02FORECAST20253122754.78839.90247.34500.0070866180.3270866180.020.347086618FF22.788204.788219449.9255398952200.1918512049031612225225DRYL
2025-08-02 16:00:02FORECAST20253122754.84241.77448.30800.0066929170.3066929170.010.316692917FF22.842206.842219449.9255398952200.193227977706351612225225DRYL
2025-08-02 12:00:02FORECAST20253122757.23642.24249.739000.250.010.26FF25.236213.236219449.9255398952200.260112527176971622225230DRYL
2025-08-02 08:00:02FORECAST20253122759.37842.94451.161000.2500.25FF27.378215.378219449.9255398952200.328718472793751622225230DRYL
2025-08-02 04:00:04FORECAST20253122759.77442.47651.125000.2200.22FF27.774216.774219449.9255398952200.342163359544411622225230DRYL
2025-08-02 00:00:02FORECAST20253122758.9142.3550.6300.0027559070.1427559070.010.152755907FF26.91216.91219449.9255398952200.313111199448821622225230DRYL
2025-08-01 20:00:02FORECAST20253122758.74842.31450.53100.0027559070.1427559070.010.152755907FF26.748215.748219449.9255398952200.307783877874251622225230DRYL
2025-08-01 16:00:01FORECAST20253122758.71242.54850.6300.0027559070.1827559070.020.202755907FF26.712207.712219449.9255398952200.306605453635891622225230DRYL
2025-08-01 12:00:02FORECAST20253122760.1747.19253.68100.007874020.2278740200.22787402FF28.17211.17219449.9255398952200.355811260070691622225230DRYL
2025-08-01 08:00:02FORECAST20253122760.49447.60654.0500.007874020.227874020.010.23787402FF28.494211.494219449.9255398952200.36711774985261622225230DRYL
2025-08-01 04:00:05FORECAST20253122763.78846.90455.346000.270.010.28FF31.788218.788219449.9255398952200.48697298145681622225230DRYL
2025-08-01 00:00:02FORECAST20253122764.88645.93255.409000.470.050.52FF32.886213.886219449.9255398952200.527751565124261632225235DRYL
2025-07-31 20:00:02FORECAST20253122764.79646.92255.859000.470.10.57FF32.796215.796219449.9255398952200.524414191319971632225235DRYL
2025-07-31 16:00:02FORECAST20253122764.29246.9455.616000.550.090.64FF32.292216.292219449.9255398952200.505699863946481632235252.5DRYMH
2025-07-31 12:00:02FORECAST20253122755.4945.80650.64800.0688976750.2288976750.110.338897675FF23.49218.49219449.9255398952200.210214497588971612225225DRYL
2025-07-31 08:00:03FORECAST20253122755.47245.82450.64800.0685039740.2285039740.20.428503974FF23.472218.472219449.9255398952200.209731139334911612225225DRYL
2025-07-31 04:00:04FORECAST20253122754.33845.93250.13500.0681102730.0981102730.180.278110273FF22.338219.338219449.9255398952200.180612510928871612225225DRYL
2025-07-31 00:00:02FORECAST20253122758.7348.21853.47400.1515748850.3015748850.090.391574885FF26.73218.73219449.9255398952200.307194417092971622225230DRYL
2025-07-30 20:00:03FORECAST20253122759.6348.1153.8700.1366142470.2866142470.10.386614247FF27.63225.63219449.9255398952200.337250016562651622225230DRYL
2025-07-30 16:00:02FORECAST20253122758.1947.46252.82600.1385827520.4485827520.010.458582752FF26.19222.19219449.9255398952200.289747261231461622225230DRYL
2025-07-30 12:00:03FORECAST20253122759.23445.82452.52900.0767716950.5967716950.130.726771695FF27.234222.234219449.9255398952200.323882704336541622235245DRYM
2025-07-30 08:00:03FORECAST20253122759.23445.82452.52900.0767716950.5767716950.180.756771695FF27.234217.234219449.9255398952200.323882704336541622235245DRYM
2025-07-30 04:00:04FORECAST20253122757.95646.07652.01600.2460631250.7560631250.160.916063125FF25.956211.956219449.9255398952200.282333847790561622235245DRYM
2025-07-30 00:00:02FORECAST20253122749.89245.30247.59700.0070866181.1170866180.241.357086618FF17.892264.892219449.9255398952200.0921461303087241612245250DRYMH
2025-07-29 20:00:03FORECAST20253122749.89245.30247.59700.0070866181.1170866180.261.377086618FF17.892261.892219449.9255398952200.0921461303087241612245250DRYMH
2025-07-29 16:00:04FORECAST20253122755.02248.63251.82700.0070866181.1170866180.191.307086618FF23.022283.022219449.9255398952200.197860506264241612245250DRYMH
2025-07-29 12:00:04FORECAST20253122749.49645.12247.3090000.340.34FF17.496291.496219449.9255398952200.0861869301153571612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-29 08:00:03FORECAST20253122749.49645.12247.3090000.380.38FF17.496299.496219449.9255398952200.0861869301153571612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-29 04:00:04FORECAST20253122750.34249.47849.91000.010.310.32FF18.342299.342219449.9255398952200.0992807839079181612215212.5DRYL