MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, August 7, 2025

[ Wednesday, August 6, 2025 | Index | Today | Friday, August 8, 2025 ]

DAY 311 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/08/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
M
MEDIUM

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 45.93°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 39.52°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 42.73°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.032
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 14
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 195

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.28 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.36 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.64 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 218
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 449.36 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 26

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 2
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 40.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-08-08 04:00:02OBSERVATION20253112645.9300239.5200442.72503001.280.361.64FF13.93002194.93002218449.36216721666 00.03244548809796916 12145240DRYM
2025-08-08 00:00:02FORECAST20253112648.30837.59842.95300.0035433091.2835433090.361.643543309FF16.308197.308218449.3621672166600.0546189997197151612145240DRYM
2025-08-07 12:00:01FORECAST20253112649.80238.1243.96100.0035433091.2835433090.361.643543309FF17.802198.802218449.3621672166600.0737728969979021612145240DRYM
2025-08-07 08:00:01FORECAST20253112649.92838.40844.16800.0019685051.2819685050.361.641968505FF17.928198.928218449.3621672166600.0755972159038991612145240DRYM
2025-08-07 04:00:02FORECAST20253112649.76638.01243.88900.0023622061.2823622060.361.642362206FF17.766198.766218449.3621672166600.0732578724722491612145240DRYM
2025-08-07 00:00:02FORECAST20253112649.92838.3944.15900.0035433090.3735433090.360.733543309FF17.928196.928218449.3621672166600.0755972159038991612125220DRYL
2025-08-06 20:00:01FORECAST2025311265038.40844.20400.0023622060.6123622060.360.972362206FF18197218449.3621672166600.0766549523458031612135230DRYL
2025-08-06 16:00:01FORECAST20253112649.71238.67844.19500.0043307110.6143307110.360.974330711FF17.712196.712218449.3621672166600.0724904816908241612135230DRYL
2025-08-06 12:00:02FORECAST20253112649.29838.73244.01500.0070866180.6170866180.360.977086618FF17.298196.298218449.3621672166600.0668096024745791612135230DRYL
2025-08-06 08:00:02FORECAST20253112650.0939.1144.600.0082677211.0982677210.361.458267721FF18.09198.09218449.3621672166600.0779928502972371612145240DRYM
2025-08-06 04:00:02FORECAST20253112649.71239.34444.52800.007874021.327874020.361.68787402FF17.712197.712218449.3621672166600.0724904816908241612145240DRYM
2025-08-06 00:00:02FORECAST20253112649.9139.41644.66300.0153543390.9753543390.361.335354339FF17.91193.91218449.3621672166600.0753345215400211612135230DRYL
2025-08-05 20:00:02FORECAST20253112650.07238.91244.49200.0216535550.9716535550.361.331653555FF18.072194.072218449.3621672166600.077723867788451612135230DRYL
2025-08-05 16:00:01FORECAST20253112649.83838.8444.33900.0248031631.0548031630.361.414803163FF17.838193.838218449.3621672166600.0742906749623211612145240DRYM
2025-08-05 12:00:02FORECAST20253112648.79438.51643.65500.0362204920.8962204920.361.256220492FF16.794192.794218449.3621672166600.0603644054568581612135230DRYL
2025-08-05 08:00:02FORECAST20253112649.2838.94844.11400.0358267910.8158267910.361.175826791FF17.28193.28218449.3621672166600.0665706266514531612135230DRYL
2025-08-05 04:00:02FORECAST20253112649.5539.12844.33900.0251968640.7851968640.361.145196864FF17.55194.55218449.3621672166600.0702251181659361612135230DRYL
2025-08-05 00:00:01FORECAST20253112650.48640.31645.40100.0208661530.8408661530.321.160866153FF18.486200.486218449.3621672166600.0840899962013891612235237.5DRYL
2025-08-04 20:00:02FORECAST20253112650.05440.0145.03200.0192913490.7792913490.321.099291349FF18.054201.054218449.3621672166600.0774555876587581612235237.5DRYL
2025-08-04 16:00:01FORECAST20253112651.27839.54245.4100.0165354420.6065354420.320.926535442FF19.278203.278218449.3621672166600.0973424884890031612235237.5DRYL
2025-08-04 12:00:02FORECAST20253112652.10640.47846.29200.0208661530.3908661530.320.710866153FF20.106204.106218449.3621672166600.1127658209191612225225DRYL
2025-08-04 08:00:02FORECAST20253112653.72641.8147.76800.0279527710.3479527710.320.667952771FF21.726206.726218449.3621672166600.147796819372251612225225DRYL
2025-08-04 04:00:03FORECAST20253112654.48243.64649.06400.0283464720.1883464720.320.508346472FF22.482209.482218449.3621672166600.166401838829231612225225DRYL
2025-08-04 00:00:02FORECAST20253112652.82642.9847.90300.1031496620.3631496620.320.683149662FF20.826207.826218449.3621672166600.127528639805941612225225DRYL
2025-08-03 20:00:02FORECAST20253112652.4343.77248.10100.1358268450.3258268450.320.645826845FF20.43209.43218449.3621672166600.119251260761612225225DRYL
2025-08-03 16:00:02FORECAST20253112651.7143.6147.6600.1279528250.2679528250.320.587952825FF19.71207.71218449.3621672166600.105185213460211612225225DRYL
2025-08-03 12:00:02FORECAST20253112653.00642.76447.88500.1082677750.1882677750.320.508267775FF21.006210.006218449.3621672166600.131419790934531612225225DRYL
2025-08-03 08:00:02FORECAST20253112653.11442.00847.56100.1118110840.2318110840.320.551811084FF21.114213.114218449.3621672166600.133793321080431612225225DRYL
2025-08-03 04:00:04FORECAST20253112654.01441.97247.99300.1137795890.2637795890.320.583779589FF22.014215.014218449.3621672166600.154713822471681612225225DRYL
2025-08-03 00:00:02FORECAST20253112650.7242.58446.65200.1468504730.3368504730.320.656850473FF18.72204.72218449.3621672166600.087856693548631612225225DRYL
2025-08-02 20:00:02FORECAST20253112651.58443.08847.33600.1468504730.3368504730.320.656850473FF19.584205.584218449.3621672166600.102852095178861612225225DRYL
2025-08-02 16:00:01FORECAST20253112652.10643.12447.61500.1318898350.3118898350.320.631889835FF20.106208.106218449.3621672166600.1127658209191612225225DRYL
2025-08-02 12:00:02FORECAST20253112655.23844.5149.87400.0389763990.2589763990.320.578976399FF23.238212.238218449.3621672166600.186451340724991612225225DRYL
2025-08-02 08:00:02FORECAST20253112654.51845.06849.79300.0389763990.2489763990.320.568976399FF22.518211.518218449.3621672166600.167323882724581612225225DRYL
2025-08-02 04:00:03FORECAST20253112654.01444.72649.3700.0322834820.2222834820.320.542283482FF22.014213.014218449.3621672166600.154713822471681612225225DRYL
2025-08-02 00:00:02FORECAST20253112653.92444.76249.34300.0783464990.1383464990.330.468346499FF21.924213.924218449.3621672166600.152529711598871612225225DRYL
2025-08-01 20:00:01FORECAST20253112653.94244.63649.28900.0783464990.1383464990.330.468346499FF21.942212.942218449.3621672166600.152964893326641612225225DRYL
2025-08-01 16:00:01FORECAST20253112653.43844.0648.74900.1082677750.1782677750.340.518267775FF21.438205.438218449.3621672166600.141089443305721612225225DRYL
2025-08-01 12:00:02FORECAST20253112653.9645.64449.80200.2062993240.2162993240.320.536299324FF21.96206.96218449.3621672166600.153400895215851612225225DRYL
2025-08-01 08:00:02FORECAST20253112654.17645.60849.89200.2070867260.2170867260.330.547086726FF22.176207.176218449.3621672166600.158696908577951612225225DRYL
2025-08-01 04:00:04FORECAST20253112654.98644.47449.7300.2066930250.2666930250.330.596693025FF22.986210.986218449.3621672166600.179608317370021612225225DRYL
2025-08-01 00:00:02FORECAST20253112655.32845.44650.38700.3259844280.4959844280.340.835984428FF23.328205.328218449.3621672166600.188933817267811612235237.5DRYL
2025-07-31 20:00:02FORECAST20253112656.87645.55451.21500.3259844280.4959844280.390.885984428FF24.876206.876218449.3621672166600.234742611133181612235237.5DRYL
2025-07-31 16:00:01FORECAST20253112656.64245.84251.24200.3263781290.5663781290.390.956378129FF24.642207.642218449.3621672166600.227448458826891612235237.5DRYL
2025-07-31 12:00:02FORECAST20253112658.58646.86852.72700.1484252770.1584252770.430.588425277FF26.586218.586218449.3621672166600.291760903427411622225230DRYL
2025-07-31 08:00:03FORECAST20253112658.5547.0352.7900.149606380.159606380.520.67960638FF26.55218.55218449.3621672166600.290497072695741622225230DRYL
2025-07-31 04:00:04FORECAST20253112661.46645.96853.71700.0216535550.0316535550.50.531653555FF29.466221.466218449.3621672166600.399968368026011622215215DRYL
2025-07-31 00:00:02FORECAST20253112658.58645.21251.89900.1173228980.1473228980.410.557322898FF26.586215.586218449.3621672166600.291760903427411622225230DRYL
2025-07-30 20:00:03FORECAST20253112659.05446.5852.81700.1118110840.1518110840.420.571811084FF27.054222.054218449.3621672166600.30841860144071622225230DRYL
2025-07-30 16:00:02FORECAST20253112656.24646.99451.6200.3055119760.3055119760.330.635511976FF24.246220.246218449.3621672166600.215399772550791612225225DRYL
2025-07-30 12:00:02FORECAST20253112658.13647.01252.57400.5216538250.5216538250.450.971653825FF26.136219.136218449.3621672166600.276150334983551622235245DRYM
2025-07-30 08:00:03FORECAST20253112658.20847.0352.61900.503937280.503937280.51.00393728FF26.208214.208218449.3621672166600.278620281942161622235245DRYM
2025-07-30 04:00:04FORECAST20253112657.57845.96851.77300.5051183830.5251183830.460.985118383FF25.578209.578218449.3621672166600.257380234290921622235245DRYM
2025-07-30 00:00:02FORECAST20253112653.94245.35649.64901.1094494181.1094494180.561.669449418FF21.942270.942218449.3621672166600.152964893326641612245250DRYMH
2025-07-29 20:00:03FORECAST20253112653.94245.35649.64901.1094494181.1094494180.581.689449418FF21.942267.942218449.3621672166600.152964893326641612245250DRYMH
2025-07-29 16:00:03FORECAST20253112658.5548.39853.47401.110236821.110236820.511.62023682FF26.55283.55218449.3621672166600.290497072695741622245260DRYH
2025-07-29 12:00:03FORECAST20253112670.89849.33460.116000.010.650.66FF38.898297.898218449.3621672166600.761800411035511642215140DRYM
2025-07-29 08:00:03FORECAST20253112670.89849.33460.116000.010.690.7FF38.898305.898218449.3621672166600.761800411035511642215140DRYM
2025-07-29 04:00:04FORECAST20253112671.20451.1761.187000.020.620.64FF39.204305.204218449.3621672166600.771391403075191642215140DRYM
2025-07-29 00:00:04FORECAST20253112653.90648.79451.3500.0141732360.0141732360.520.534173236FF21.906352.906218449.3621672166600.152095349962491612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-28 20:00:03FORECAST20253112653.99648.79451.39500.0122047310.0122047310.440.452204731FF21.996350.996218449.3621672166600.154275359731831612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-28 16:00:03FORECAST20253112653.81650.82852.32200.0122047310.0122047310.450.462204731FF21.816348.816218449.3621672166600.149935840322541612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-28 12:00:03FORECAST20253112654.15850.16252.16000.020.470.49FF22.158371.158218449.3621672166600.1582510612631612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-28 08:00:03FORECAST20253112654.15850.16252.16000.020.50.52FF22.158373.158218449.3621672166600.1582510612631612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-28 04:00:04FORECAST20253112651.13449.13650.135000.070.630.7FF19.134353.134218449.3621672166600.0948257235407141612215212.5DRYL