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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, August 5, 2025

[ Monday, August 4, 2025 | Index | Today | Wednesday, August 6, 2025 ]

DAY 309 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/06/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 59.68°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 42.97°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 51.32°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.306
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 28
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 208

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.04 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.32 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.36 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 216
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 448.23 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 24

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 2
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 15.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-08-06 04:00:02OBSERVATION20253092459.6800442.9699251.32498000.040.320.36FF27.68004207.68004216448.22897902679 00.3062322206673816 22215215DRYL
2025-08-06 00:00:01FORECAST20253092456.60640.9148.758000.040.320.36FF24.606204.606216448.2289790267900.204111351402291612215212.5DRYL
2025-08-05 12:00:01FORECAST20253092457.09242.09849.595000.040.320.36FF25.092205.092216448.2289790267900.21877046480941612215212.5DRYL
2025-08-05 08:00:02FORECAST20253092457.43442.45849.946000.040.320.36FF25.434205.434216448.2289790267900.229438906793781612215212.5DRYL
2025-08-05 04:00:02FORECAST20253092457.66841.39649.532000.040.320.36FF25.668205.668216448.2289790267900.236902949419651612215212.5DRYL
2025-08-05 00:00:01FORECAST20253092457.05641.70249.3790000.320.32FF25.056211.056216448.2289790267900.217664291011691612215212.5DRYL
2025-08-04 20:00:01FORECAST20253092456.26442.1749.2170000.320.32FF24.264212.264216448.2289790267900.194154900116971612215212.5DRYL
2025-08-04 16:00:01FORECAST20253092456.55241.8149.1810000.320.32FF24.552212.552216448.2289790267900.202519407991671612215212.5DRYL
2025-08-04 12:00:01FORECAST20253092456.35442.13449.2440000.320.32FF24.354212.354216448.2289790267900.196745970559671612215212.5DRYL
2025-08-04 08:00:02FORECAST20253092456.06641.95449.010000.320.32FF24.066212.066216448.2289790267900.188528008486451612215212.5DRYL
2025-08-04 04:00:02FORECAST20253092456.13842.24249.190000.320.32FF24.138213.138216448.2289790267900.190562438738741612215212.5DRYL
2025-08-04 00:00:02FORECAST20253092455.68841.9948.83900.0027559070.0027559070.320.322755907FF23.688212.688216448.2289790267900.178067923928821612215212.5DRYL
2025-08-03 20:00:01FORECAST20253092456.15641.88249.01900.0027559070.0027559070.320.322755907FF24.156214.156216448.2289790267900.191073139883531612215212.5DRYL
2025-08-03 16:00:02FORECAST20253092455.8541.68448.7670000.320.32FF23.85212.85216448.2289790267900.182505322022941612215212.5DRYL
2025-08-03 12:00:01FORECAST20253092456.1241.59448.85700.0003937010.0003937010.320.320393701FF24.12214.12216448.2289790267900.190052574614771612215212.5DRYL
2025-08-03 08:00:02FORECAST20253092457.14641.5449.34300.0070866180.0070866180.320.327086618FF25.146217.146216448.2289790267900.220435764934931612215212.5DRYL
2025-08-03 04:00:04FORECAST20253092457.9242.81850.36900.0055118140.0055118140.320.325511814FF25.92218.92216448.2289790267900.245087982099551612215212.5DRYL
2025-08-03 00:00:02FORECAST20253092456.76842.24249.50500.0129921330.0129921330.320.332992133FF24.768210.768216448.2289790267900.208931607267561612215212.5DRYL
2025-08-02 20:00:02FORECAST20253092456.0341.82848.92900.015748040.015748040.320.33574804FF24.03211.03216448.2289790267900.187515823608181612215212.5DRYL
2025-08-02 16:00:01FORECAST20253092457.50642.69250.09900.0141732360.0141732360.320.334173236FF25.506214.506216448.2289790267900.23172141651021612215212.5DRYL
2025-08-02 12:00:02FORECAST20253092457.52442.15249.83800.007874020.007874020.320.32787402FF25.524213.524216448.2289790267900.232294011139551612215212.5DRYL
2025-08-02 08:00:02FORECAST20253092456.5741.9949.2800.0027559070.0027559070.320.322755907FF24.57213.57216448.2289790267900.203049230908411612215212.5DRYL
2025-08-02 04:00:03FORECAST20253092455.83242.74649.28900.0031496080.0031496080.320.323149608FF23.832214.832216448.2289790267900.182008902259921612215212.5DRYL
2025-08-02 00:00:02FORECAST20253092456.5742.72849.64900.0027559070.0127559070.320.332755907FF24.57213.57216448.2289790267900.203049230908411612215212.5DRYL
2025-08-01 20:00:01FORECAST20253092456.10242.45849.2800.0027559070.0127559070.320.332755907FF24.102213.102216448.2289790267900.189543547926771612215212.5DRYL
2025-08-01 16:00:01FORECAST20253092454.87841.8148.34400.0031496080.0231496080.320.343149608FF22.878207.878216448.2289790267900.156910826685441612215212.5DRYL
2025-08-01 12:00:02FORECAST20253092454.06840.4647.26400.0023622060.0023622060.320.322362206FF22.068208.068216448.2289790267900.137474427507891612215212.5DRYL
2025-08-01 08:00:02FORECAST20253092453.92440.69447.30900.0023622060.0123622060.320.332362206FF21.924207.924216448.2289790267900.134198553076861612215212.5DRYL
2025-08-01 04:00:04FORECAST20253092455.65241.77448.71300.0023622060.0123622060.320.332362206FF23.652210.652216448.2289790267900.177091128472911612215212.5DRYL
2025-08-01 00:00:02FORECAST20253092454.8641.28848.07400.0295275750.0395275750.330.369527575FF22.86206.86216448.2289790267900.156460219368281612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-31 20:00:02FORECAST20253092454.80640.67647.74100.0295275750.0395275750.380.419527575FF22.806207.806216448.2289790267900.155113501502421612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-31 16:00:01FORECAST20253092455.20240.44247.82200.023622060.033622060.380.41362206FF23.202209.202216448.2289790267900.165167224966351612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-31 12:00:02FORECAST20253092455.74241.86448.803000.060.370.43FF23.742213.742216448.2289790267900.179539457349781612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-31 08:00:02FORECAST20253092455.97641.57648.776000.060.460.52FF23.976212.976216448.2289790267900.186003842816961612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-31 04:00:03FORECAST20253092455.6741.66648.668000.060.440.5FF23.67212.67216448.2289790267900.177579103347041612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-31 00:00:02FORECAST20253092456.33640.83848.5870000.410.41FF24.336210.336216448.2289790267900.19622609146071612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-30 20:00:02FORECAST20253092456.33640.5548.4430000.420.42FF24.336215.336216448.2289790267900.19622609146071612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-30 16:00:02FORECAST20253092458.20840.78449.4960000.330.33FF26.208215.208216448.2289790267900.254625174632421622215215DRYL
2025-07-30 12:00:02FORECAST20253092456.31840.49648.407000.010.440.45FF24.318211.318216448.2289790267900.195707044382791612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-30 08:00:02FORECAST20253092454.3240.44247.381000.010.490.5FF22.32206.32216448.2289790267900.143337265377381612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-30 04:00:04FORECAST20253092454.93239.61447.27300.0177165450.0277165450.450.477716545FF22.932203.932216448.2289790267900.158267753036031612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-30 00:00:02FORECAST20253092455.34639.7447.5430000.560.56FF23.346269.346216448.2289790267900.168925164230221612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-29 20:00:03FORECAST20253092455.70638.96647.3360000.580.58FF23.706265.706216448.2289790267900.178557589964391612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-29 16:00:03FORECAST20253092457.70442.2649.9820000.510.51FF25.704272.704216448.2289790267900.238062976760171612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-29 12:00:03FORECAST20253092460.15242.02651.08900.0106299270.0106299270.650.660629927FF28.152269.152216448.2289790267900.323704699257621622215215DRYL
2025-07-29 08:00:02FORECAST20253092460.15244.88852.5200.0106299270.0106299270.690.700629927FF28.152277.152216448.2289790267900.323704699257621622215215DRYL
2025-07-29 04:00:04FORECAST20253092460.63845.12252.8800.0106299270.0106299270.620.630629927FF28.638276.638216448.2289790267900.342111696166631622215215DRYL
2025-07-29 00:00:04FORECAST20253092461.77246.454.086000.020.50.52FF29.772340.772216448.2289790267900.38647878292781622215215DRYL
2025-07-28 20:00:02FORECAST20253092461.73647.354.518000.020.420.44FF29.736338.736216448.2289790267900.385043635320031622215215DRYL
2025-07-28 16:00:03FORECAST20253092460.78247.24654.014000.040.410.45FF28.782336.782216448.2289790267900.347640945398731622215215DRYL
2025-07-28 12:00:03FORECAST20253092465.33650.03657.686000.040.430.47FF33.336353.336216448.2289790267900.533061076913011632215217.5DRYL
2025-07-28 08:00:02FORECAST20253092465.33650.03657.686000.040.460.5FF33.336355.336216448.2289790267900.533061076913011632215217.5DRYL
2025-07-28 04:00:04FORECAST20253092462.25849.47855.86800.0507874290.0907874290.590.680787429FF30.258348.258216448.2289790267900.405997736208451622225230DRYL
2025-07-28 00:00:03FORECAST20253092466.1147.82256.9660000.760.76FF34.11409.11216448.2289790267900.564993037024831632315220DRYL
2025-07-27 20:00:03FORECAST20253092465.17446.23855.7060000.750.75FF33.174407.174216448.2289790267900.526343605453561632315220DRYL
2025-07-27 16:00:02FORECAST20253092464.4946.88655.6880000.720.72FF32.49404.49216448.2289790267900.497920925847961622315217.5DRYL
2025-07-27 12:00:03FORECAST20253092461.35846.79654.07700.0133858340.1433858340.580.723385834FF29.358407.358216448.2289790267900.370073019079851622325235DRYL
2025-07-27 08:00:03FORECAST20253092461.35846.79654.07700.0125984320.1425984320.550.692598432FF29.358408.358216448.2289790267900.370073019079851622325235DRYL
2025-07-27 04:00:04FORECAST20253092462.09649.42455.7600.0137795350.0437795350.520.563779535FF30.096410.096216448.2289790267900.39946280239411622315217.5DRYL
2025-07-27 00:00:03FORECAST20253092450.9944.74447.867000.180.620.8FF18.99449.99216448.2289790267900.0788167643886991612325230DRYL
2025-07-26 20:00:03FORECAST20253092454.10445.549.802000.10.620.72FF22.104452.104216448.2289790267900.138301830932441612325230DRYL
2025-07-26 16:00:03FORECAST20253092451.2645.51848.389000.10.620.72FF19.26450.26216448.2289790267900.0830460716903711612325230DRYL
2025-07-26 12:00:03FORECAST20253092450.01846.99448.506000.060.70.76FF18.018450.018216448.2289790267900.0649309586999771612315215DRYL
2025-07-26 08:00:03FORECAST20253092451.94447.42649.685000.060.70.76FF19.944453.944216448.2289790267900.094518462700821612315215DRYL
2025-07-26 04:00:04FORECAST20253092456.13854.24855.193000.050.720.77FF24.138473.138216448.2289790267900.190562438738741612315215DRYL