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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, August 1, 2025

[ Thursday, July 31, 2025 | Index | Today | Saturday, August 2, 2025 ]

DAY 305 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/02/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 65.05°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 49.63°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 57.34°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.489
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 33
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 260

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.32 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.32 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 212
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 445.94 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 20

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 2
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 15.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-08-02 04:00:02OBSERVATION20253052065.0499849.6299257.339950000.320.32FF33.04998260.04998212445.9366015751 00.4891259422251716 22215215DRYL
2025-08-02 00:00:01FORECAST20253052060.31446.86853.59100.0007874020.0007874020.320.320787402FF28.314255.314212445.936601575100.290398411452151622215215DRYL
2025-08-01 12:00:02FORECAST20253052061.35846.77854.06800.0007874020.0007874020.320.320787402FF29.358256.358212445.936601575100.331239014236281622215215DRYL
2025-08-01 08:00:02FORECAST20253052062.90646.25654.5810000.320.32FF30.906257.906212445.936601575100.395540761479621622215215DRYL
2025-08-01 04:00:03FORECAST20253052063.78847.89455.8410000.320.32FF31.788258.788212445.936601575100.433628951782881622215215DRYL
2025-08-01 00:00:01FORECAST20253052064.59847.4856.03900.0019685050.0119685050.320.331968505FF32.598256.598212445.936601575100.469168775780631622215215DRYL
2025-07-31 20:00:01FORECAST20253052064.20248.75856.4800.0086614220.0586614220.320.378661422FF32.202259.202212445.936601575100.451745155730041622215215DRYL
2025-07-31 16:00:01FORECAST20253052064.32849.11856.72300.0141732360.0641732360.320.384173236FF32.328259.328212445.936601575100.457280578902091622215215DRYL
2025-07-31 12:00:01FORECAST20253052064.29250.37857.33500.0007874020.0507874020.320.370787402FF32.292259.292212445.936601575100.455698135799041622215215DRYL
2025-07-31 08:00:02FORECAST20253052063.33850.19856.76800.0204724520.1404724520.320.460472452FF31.338259.338212445.936601575100.414095585295661622225230DRYL
2025-07-31 04:00:03FORECAST20253052062.425056.2100.1003937550.1203937550.320.440393755FF30.42258.42212445.936601575100.374947950228421622225230DRYL
2025-07-31 00:00:01FORECAST20253052062.52849.92856.22800.0846457150.0946457150.320.414645715FF30.528253.528212445.936601575100.379495727286161622225230DRYL
2025-07-30 20:00:02FORECAST20253052062.649.83856.21900.0889764260.0989764260.320.418976426FF30.6255.6212445.936601575100.382536908420721622225230DRYL
2025-07-30 16:00:01FORECAST20253052062.70849.74856.22800.0102362260.0102362260.320.330236226FF30.708256.708212445.936601575100.387112235373211622215215DRYL
2025-07-30 12:00:01FORECAST20253052061.53849.3755.45400.0850394160.1150394160.320.435039416FF29.538256.538212445.936601575100.338506698691511622225230DRYL
2025-07-30 08:00:02FORECAST20253052059.95448.95654.45500.1480315760.1680315760.320.488031576FF27.954255.954212445.936601575100.276882255294081622225230DRYL
2025-07-30 04:00:03FORECAST20253052058.76648.72253.74400.106299270.126299270.320.44629927FF26.766254.766212445.936601575100.234584432627971612225225DRYL
2025-07-30 00:00:01FORECAST20253052057.95648.57853.26700.1346457420.2246457420.320.544645742FF25.956322.956212445.936601575100.207925240445521612225225DRYL
2025-07-29 20:00:02FORECAST20253052058.26248.43453.34800.1027559610.2427559610.320.562755961FF26.262322.262212445.936601575100.217780208332051612225225DRYL
2025-07-29 16:00:02FORECAST20253052059.73848.61454.17600.0960630440.1660630440.320.486063044FF27.738323.738212445.936601575100.268923007617911622225230DRYL
2025-07-29 12:00:02FORECAST20253052059.10848.52453.81600.2051182210.3151182210.320.635118221FF27.108323.108212445.936601575100.246383147585051612225225DRYL
2025-07-29 08:00:02FORECAST20253052060.6249.154.8600.1759843470.3559843470.320.675984347FF28.62325.62212445.936601575100.302124257624031622225230DRYL
2025-07-29 04:00:03FORECAST20253052060.02649.22654.62600.1082677750.2882677750.320.608267775FF28.026325.026212445.936601575100.27956071029711622225230DRYL
2025-07-29 00:00:03FORECAST20253052057.61448.68653.1500.0362204920.1762204920.320.496220492FF25.614384.614212445.936601575100.197227935472561612225225DRYL
2025-07-28 20:00:02FORECAST20253052057.90249.153.50100.0248031630.1048031630.320.424803163FF25.902384.902212445.936601575100.206213820571461612225225DRYL
2025-07-28 16:00:02FORECAST20253052059.64849.47854.56300.0208661530.0908661530.320.410866153FF27.648386.648212445.936601575100.26564084894181622225230DRYL
2025-07-28 12:00:02FORECAST20253052059.66648.4754.06800.0476378210.0976378210.320.417637821FF27.666385.666212445.936601575100.266295654160311622225230DRYL
2025-07-28 08:00:02FORECAST20253052058.06448.00253.03300.0500000270.1300000270.320.450000027FF26.064385.064212445.936601575100.21137308335351612225225DRYL
2025-07-28 04:00:04FORECAST20253052058.51447.85853.18600.0515748310.2615748310.320.581574831FF26.514386.514212445.936601575100.226094243852561612225225DRYL
2025-07-28 00:00:02FORECAST20253052056.49848.88452.69100.3275592320.4275592320.320.747559232FF24.498445.498212445.936601575100.164697456046121612325230DRYL
2025-07-27 20:00:02FORECAST20253052055.16647.44451.30500.3161419030.4161419030.320.736141903FF23.166447.166212445.936601575100.130695743558711612325230DRYL
2025-07-27 16:00:02FORECAST20253052056.06647.37251.71900.3240159230.3940159230.320.714015923FF24.066445.066212445.936601575100.153093985077951612325230DRYL
2025-07-27 12:00:02FORECAST20253052057.88448.1152.99700.0909449310.2509449310.330.580944931FF25.884448.884212445.936601575100.205645204469871612325230DRYL
2025-07-27 08:00:02FORECAST20253052059.14448.45253.79800.0846457150.2346457150.320.554645715FF27.144448.144212445.936601575100.247643329386441612325230DRYL
2025-07-27 04:00:04FORECAST20253052060.13448.25454.19400.1066929710.1966929710.320.516692971FF28.134449.134212445.936601575100.283601799735351622325235DRYL
2025-07-27 00:00:02FORECAST20253052061.57448.2954.932000.30.320.62FF29.574503.574212445.936601575100.339967585959351622425240DRYM
2025-07-26 20:00:03FORECAST20253052062.36648.81255.589000.30.320.62FF30.366504.366212445.936601575100.372680518439491622425240DRYM
2025-07-26 16:00:03FORECAST20253052062.40248.93855.67000.290.330.62FF30.402502.402212445.936601575100.374191655042561622425240DRYM
2025-07-26 12:00:02FORECAST20253052061.37647.0354.20300.291338740.381338740.320.70133874FF29.376504.376212445.936601575100.331962987223531622425240DRYM
2025-07-26 08:00:03FORECAST20253052057.9246.2252.0700.291338740.381338740.320.70133874FF25.92501.92212445.936601575100.206783365766871612425235DRYL
2025-07-26 04:00:03FORECAST20253052058.1946.20252.19600.2870080290.3970080290.320.717008029FF26.19504.19212445.936601575100.215437507049891612425235DRYL
2025-07-26 00:00:03FORECAST20253052058.31646.2252.26800.0094488240.1294488240.320.449448824FF26.316556.316212445.936601575100.219546819000971612425235DRYL
2025-07-25 20:00:02FORECAST20253052063.01446.05854.53600.0094488240.1194488240.320.439448824FF31.014561.014212445.936601575100.40015908942811622425240DRYM
2025-07-25 16:00:02FORECAST20253052061.28646.8554.06800.0192913490.0692913490.320.389291349FF29.286561.286212445.936601575100.328349443605651622415220DRYL
2025-07-25 12:00:02FORECAST20253052057.9246.38252.15100.2692914840.3492914840.320.669291484FF25.92557.92212445.936601575100.206783365766871612425235DRYL
2025-07-25 08:00:03FORECAST20253052058.04648.95653.50100.2692914840.3492914840.320.669291484FF26.046561.046212445.936601575100.210796132994191612425235DRYL
2025-07-25 04:00:04FORECAST20253052058.78448.07453.42900.2700788860.3600788860.320.680078886FF26.784559.784212445.936601575100.235197537782561612425235DRYL
2025-07-25 00:00:02FORECAST20253052062.67248.41655.54400.0149606380.1249606380.330.454960638FF30.672574.672212445.936601575100.38558534851341622425240DRYM
2025-07-24 20:00:02FORECAST20253052062.00647.51654.76100.0149606380.1249606380.330.454960638FF30.006569.006212445.936601575100.35768025549161622425240DRYM
2025-07-24 16:00:03FORECAST20253052063.7747.355.53500.0842520140.3142520140.330.644252014FF31.77570.77212445.936601575100.432844162770141622425240DRYM
2025-07-24 12:00:03FORECAST20253052058.9146.83252.87100.0208661530.1808661530.320.500866153FF26.91557.91212445.936601575100.239513914002241612425235DRYL
2025-07-24 08:00:03FORECAST20253052058.69447.80453.24900.0204724520.1904724520.320.510472452FF26.694554.694212445.936601575100.232140858791031612425235DRYL
2025-07-24 04:00:04FORECAST20253052061.30446.88654.095000.450.320.77FF29.304559.304212445.936601575100.329070883431851622425240DRYM
2025-07-24 00:00:03FORECAST20253052065.13849.2857.20900.11811030.25811030.320.5781103FF33.138572.138212445.936601575100.49301719995341622425240DRYM
2025-07-23 20:00:03FORECAST20253052064.77848.66856.72300.11811030.25811030.320.5781103FF32.778570.778212445.936601575100.477110202140691622425240DRYM
2025-07-23 16:00:02FORECAST20253052064.43647.94856.19200.055118140.285118140.320.60511814FF32.436568.436212445.936601575100.46203187396071622425240DRYM
2025-07-23 12:00:03FORECAST20253052063.17645.46454.32000.420.330.75FF31.176560.176212445.936601575100.407112639835791622425240DRYM
2025-07-23 08:00:04FORECAST20253052063.17645.46454.32000.420.330.75FF31.176563.176212445.936601575100.407112639835791622425240DRYM
2025-07-23 04:00:07FORECAST20253052071.88847.40859.648000.440.330.77FF39.888575.888212445.936601575100.7675261333636516424251100DRYVH
2025-07-23 00:00:03FORECAST20253052047.98444.6946.337000.430.350.78FF15.984542.984212445.936601575100.0273333688453851612425235DRYL
2025-07-22 20:00:03FORECAST20253052048.1144.04246.076000.410.350.76FF16.11542.11212445.936601575100.0282292267661691612425235DRYL
2025-07-22 16:00:03FORECAST20253052046.70643.41245.059000.430.350.78FF14.706539.706212445.936601575100.0195121349822891612425235DRYL
2025-07-22 12:00:03FORECAST20253052044.76240.3742.566000.120.330.45FF12.762541.762212445.936601575100.0112822708777671612425235DRYL
2025-07-22 08:00:04FORECAST20253052044.76240.3742.566000.120.340.46FF12.762538.762212445.936601575100.0112822708777671612425235DRYL
2025-07-22 04:00:05FORECAST20253052049.76647.60648.686000.120.340.46FF17.766555.766212445.936601575100.0424344157541081612425235DRYL