MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, July 29, 2025

[ Monday, July 28, 2025 | Index | Today | Wednesday, July 30, 2025 ]

DAY 302 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/30/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 0.00°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 0.00°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 0.00°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.000
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -32
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 249

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.32 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.32 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 209
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 444.19 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 17

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 2
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 12.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-07-30 04:00:03OBSERVATION20253021700000.320.32FF-32249209444.19430662083 07.8270723236074E-1416 12215212.5DRYL
2025-07-30 00:00:01FORECAST20253021768.97247.60658.2890000.320.32FF36.972317.972209444.1943066208300.65650823661591632215135DRYL
2025-07-29 12:00:01FORECAST20253021768.1846.11257.1460000.320.32FF36.18317.18209444.1943066208300.623071475642021632215135DRYL
2025-07-29 08:00:01FORECAST20253021769.31445.57257.4430000.320.32FF37.314318.314209444.1943066208300.670594250433031632215135DRYL
2025-07-29 04:00:03FORECAST20253021769.81845.69857.7580000.320.32FF37.818318.818209444.1943066208300.690914311304481632215135DRYL
2025-07-29 00:00:02FORECAST20253021770.6146.07658.3430000.320.32FF38.61382.61209444.1943066208300.721681389852671642215140DRYM
2025-07-28 20:00:01FORECAST20253021770.62845.8658.2440000.320.32FF38.628382.628209444.1943066208300.722362958987621642215140DRYM
2025-07-28 16:00:02FORECAST20253021770.50247.91259.2070000.320.32FF38.502382.502209444.1943066208300.717574953918881642215140DRYM
2025-07-28 12:00:01FORECAST20253021770.28649.08259.6840000.320.32FF38.286382.286209444.1943066208300.709275836225141642215140DRYM
2025-07-28 08:00:01FORECAST20253021770.59250.19860.3950000.320.32FF38.592383.592209444.1943066208300.720999007104091642215140DRYM
2025-07-28 04:00:03FORECAST20253021770.66449.74860.2060000.320.32FF38.664384.664209444.1943066208300.723723649095451642215140DRYM
2025-07-28 00:00:02FORECAST20253021770.46649.89260.1790000.320.32FF38.466443.466209444.1943066208300.716199702484521642315145DRYM
2025-07-27 20:00:02FORECAST20253021770.35849.76660.06200.0031496080.0031496080.320.323149608FF38.358444.358209444.1943066208300.712054842508651642315145DRYM
2025-07-27 16:00:01FORECAST20253021770.26849.3759.81900.0031496080.0031496080.320.323149608FF38.268443.268209444.1943066208300.708579131898711642315145DRYM
2025-07-27 12:00:02FORECAST20253021770.80850.3660.58400.0055118140.0055118140.320.325511814FF38.808444.808209444.1943066208300.729133502859371642315145DRYM
2025-07-27 08:00:02FORECAST20253021770.55650.34260.4490000.320.32FF38.556444.556209444.1943066208300.719631808140761642315145DRYM
2025-07-27 04:00:03FORECAST20253021770.17850.14460.1610000.320.32FF38.178445.178209444.1943066208300.705083993828771642315145DRYM
2025-07-27 00:00:02FORECAST20253021769.2650.2759.7650000.320.32FF37.26499.26209444.1943066208300.668385526977921632415145DRYM
2025-07-26 20:00:02FORECAST20253021770.19651.27860.7370000.320.32FF38.196498.196209444.1943066208300.705784563563181642315145DRYM
2025-07-26 16:00:02FORECAST20253021770.35851.83661.09700.0055118140.0055118140.320.325511814FF38.358498.358209444.1943066208300.712054842508651642315145DRYM
2025-07-26 12:00:02FORECAST20253021769.99850.93660.4670000.320.32FF37.998497.998209444.1943066208300.698036453506631632315140DRYM
2025-07-26 08:00:02FORECAST20253021770.01650.43260.2240000.320.32FF38.016500.016209444.1943066208300.698744599770171632415145DRYM
2025-07-26 04:00:03FORECAST20253021769.92649.60459.76500.0003937010.0003937010.320.320393701FF37.926500.926209444.1943066208300.695196428976631632415145DRYM
2025-07-26 00:00:02FORECAST20253021769.49450.4559.97200.0027559070.0027559070.320.322755907FF37.494557.494209444.1943066208300.677913450576841632415145DRYM
2025-07-25 20:00:01FORECAST20253021769.99850.95460.47600.0027559070.0027559070.320.322755907FF37.998557.998209444.1943066208300.698036453506631632415145DRYM
2025-07-25 16:00:02FORECAST20253021770.57451.6261.09700.0027559070.0027559070.320.322755907FF38.574557.574209444.1943066208300.720315812583341642415150DRYMH
2025-07-25 12:00:02FORECAST20253021770.6152.0761.340000.320.32FF38.61558.61209444.1943066208300.721681389852671642415150DRYMH
2025-07-25 08:00:02FORECAST20253021771.3352.64661.9880000.320.32FF39.33561.33209444.1943066208300.748290913855561642415150DRYMH
2025-07-25 04:00:03FORECAST20253021771.27651.96261.61900.0043307110.0043307110.320.324330711FF39.276561.276209444.1943066208300.746342786275661642415150DRYMH
2025-07-25 00:00:02FORECAST20253021772.62652.23262.42900.0110236280.0110236280.320.331023628FF40.626566.626209444.1943066208300.792589336732041642415150DRYMH
2025-07-24 20:00:02FORECAST20253021772.44651.60262.02400.0110236280.0110236280.320.331023628FF40.446563.446209444.1943066208300.786726679424651642415150DRYMH
2025-07-24 16:00:02FORECAST20253021772.53651.81862.17700.0102362260.0102362260.320.330236226FF40.536563.536209444.1943066208300.78966997806991642415150DRYMH
2025-07-24 12:00:02FORECAST20253021771.11449.89260.5030000.320.32FF39.114559.114209444.1943066208300.740451296948821642415150DRYMH
2025-07-24 08:00:02FORECAST20253021769.36850.70260.0350000.320.32FF37.368558.368209444.1943066208300.672797041579111632415145DRYM
2025-07-24 04:00:03FORECAST20253021769.67451.47660.5750000.320.32FF37.674560.674209444.1943066208300.685164342313581632415145DRYM
2025-07-24 00:00:02FORECAST20253021771.70853.07862.3930000.320.32FF39.708565.708209444.1943066208300.761703932578721642415150DRYMH
2025-07-23 20:00:02FORECAST20253021771.99652.82662.4110000.320.32FF39.996561.996209444.1943066208300.771655103964281642415150DRYMH
2025-07-23 16:00:02FORECAST20253021772.21252.91662.5640000.320.32FF40.212562.212209444.1943066208300.778962862513091642415150DRYMH
2025-07-23 12:00:03FORECAST20253021770.26853.27661.77200.0051181130.0051181130.320.325118113FF38.268561.268209444.1943066208300.708579131898711642415150DRYMH
2025-07-23 08:00:03FORECAST20253021770.82653.90662.36600.0055118140.0055118140.320.325511814FF38.826561.826209444.1943066208300.729806003267151642415150DRYMH
2025-07-23 04:00:06FORECAST20253021771.31254.71663.01400.0145669370.0145669370.320.334566937FF39.312566.312209444.1943066208300.74764241587521642415150DRYMH
2025-07-23 00:00:03FORECAST20253021770.59255.52663.05900.0240157610.0240157610.330.354015761FF38.592558.592209444.1943066208300.720999007104091642415150DRYMH
2025-07-22 20:00:02FORECAST20253021770.86253.54662.20400.0244094620.0244094620.330.354409462FF38.862557.862209444.1943066208300.731148497321131642415150DRYMH
2025-07-22 16:00:02FORECAST20253021770.753.0661.8800.0212598540.0212598540.330.351259854FF38.7557.7209444.1943066208300.725081062874561642415150DRYMH
2025-07-22 12:00:03FORECAST20253021771.65452.9762.31200.0003937010.0003937010.330.330393701FF39.654556.654209444.1943066208300.759812036132681642415150DRYMH
2025-07-22 08:00:03FORECAST20253021772.46455.25663.860000.340.34FF40.464555.464209444.1943066208300.787317249204791642415150DRYMH
2025-07-22 04:00:04FORECAST20253021773.65254.53664.0940000.340.34FF41.652556.652209444.1943066208300.824150070201431642415150DRYMH
2025-07-22 00:00:03FORECAST20253021768.61251.00859.8100.0165354420.0265354420.180.206535442FF36.612551.612209444.1943066208300.641442806551331632415145DRYM
2025-07-21 20:00:03FORECAST20253021766.9248.95657.93800.0165354420.0265354420.30.326535442FF34.92549.92209444.1943066208300.568022172267431632415222.5DRYL
2025-07-21 16:00:02FORECAST20253021766.90250.68458.79300.0212598540.0312598540.320.351259854FF34.902557.902209444.1943066208300.56722332921831632415222.5DRYL
2025-07-21 12:00:04FORECAST20253021765.80450.52258.16300.0350393890.0350393890.330.365039389FF33.804562.804209444.1943066208300.51809704442691632415222.5DRYL
2025-07-21 08:00:03FORECAST20253021767.35250.34258.84700.0350393890.0350393890.190.225039389FF35.352570.352209444.1943066208300.587103696969851632415222.5DRYL
2025-07-21 04:00:04FORECAST20253021766.00249.44257.72200.0322834820.0322834820.20.232283482FF34.002562.002209444.1943066208300.526998273500251632415222.5DRYL
2025-07-21 00:00:04FORECAST20253021766.57849.35257.96500.0307086780.0307086780.30.330708678FF34.578563.578209444.1943066208300.552800280376671632415222.5DRYL
2025-07-20 20:00:03FORECAST20253021766.57849.35257.96500.0307086780.0307086780.420.450708678FF34.578562.578209444.1943066208300.552800280376671632415222.5DRYL
2025-07-20 16:00:03FORECAST20253021766.66849.11857.89300.0307086780.0307086780.420.450708678FF34.668561.668209444.1943066208300.556814532109251632415222.5DRYL
2025-07-20 12:00:03FORECAST20253021768.39646.09457.24500.0047244120.0047244120.330.334724412FF36.396562.396209444.1943066208300.632294963305791632415145DRYM
2025-07-20 08:00:03FORECAST20253021768.39645.21256.80400.0066929170.0066929170.310.316692917FF36.396555.396209444.1943066208300.632294963305791632415145DRYM
2025-07-20 04:00:04FORECAST20253021764.50844.54654.52700.0066929170.0066929170.460.466692917FF32.508548.508209444.1943066208300.45981441370191622415220DRYL
2025-07-20 00:00:03FORECAST20253021748.79443.75446.2740000.240.24FF16.794530.794209444.1943066208300.0302638787362181612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-19 20:00:03FORECAST20253021748.79443.75446.2740000.290.29FF16.794532.794209444.1943066208300.0302638787362181612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-19 16:00:04FORECAST20253021749.98244.00646.9940000.420.42FF17.982533.982209444.1943066208300.0407324607092321612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-19 12:00:03FORECAST20253021754.06849.98252.0250000.250.25FF22.068551.068209444.1943066208300.100315076329131612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-19 08:00:03FORECAST20253021757.1152.30454.7070000.240.24FF25.11560.11209444.1943066208300.174628444536241612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-19 04:00:05FORECAST20253021748.43447.89448.1640000.080.08FF16.434549.434209444.1943066208300.0275706780725571612415217.5DRYL