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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, July 27, 2025

[ Saturday, July 26, 2025 | Index | Today | Monday, July 28, 2025 ]

DAY 300 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/28/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 0.00°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 0.00°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 0.00°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.000
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -32
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 368

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.38 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.38 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 207
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 443.02 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 15

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 2
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 12.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-07-28 04:00:03OBSERVATION20253001500000.380.38FF-32368207443.02169306381 01.4733214648288E-1216 12215212.5DRYL
2025-07-28 00:00:01FORECAST20253001557.9240.92849.4240000.380.38FF25.92425.92207443.0216930638100.196182366983861612315215DRYL
2025-07-27 12:00:01FORECAST20253001558.96441.10850.0360000.380.38FF26.964426.964207443.0216930638100.228156292374491612315215DRYL
2025-07-27 08:00:01FORECAST20253001559.28840.38849.8380000.380.38FF27.288427.288207443.0216930638100.238643609281561612315215DRYL
2025-07-27 04:00:03FORECAST20253001559.61240.58650.0990000.380.38FF27.612427.612207443.0216930638100.249388948592421622315217.5DRYL
2025-07-27 00:00:01FORECAST20253001559.8140.2850.0450000.380.38FF27.81483.81207443.0216930638100.256079802069871622315217.5DRYL
2025-07-26 20:00:02FORECAST20253001559.59440.78450.1890000.380.38FF27.594481.594207443.0216930638100.248785323713561612315215DRYL
2025-07-26 16:00:02FORECAST20253001560.04441.64850.8460000.380.38FF28.044482.044207443.0216930638100.264106055961261622315217.5DRYL
2025-07-26 12:00:01FORECAST20253001560.20642.54851.3770000.380.38FF28.206482.206207443.0216930638100.269736718005651622315217.5DRYL
2025-07-26 08:00:02FORECAST20253001560.20642.6251.4130000.380.38FF28.206484.206207443.0216930638100.269736718005651622315217.5DRYL
2025-07-26 04:00:03FORECAST20253001559.8141.9950.90000.380.38FF27.81484.81207443.0216930638100.256079802069871622315217.5DRYL
2025-07-26 00:00:02FORECAST20253001560.11641.46850.7920000.380.38FF28.116542.116207443.0216930638100.266601171833111622415220DRYL
2025-07-25 20:00:01FORECAST20253001560.36841.03650.7020000.380.38FF28.368542.368207443.0216930638100.275426793013441622415220DRYL
2025-07-25 16:00:01FORECAST20253001559.32441.50450.4140000.380.38FF27.324540.324207443.0216930638100.23982490681021612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-25 12:00:01FORECAST20253001559.39641.68450.540000.380.38FF27.396540.396207443.0216930638100.242197026483821612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-25 08:00:02FORECAST20253001559.6341.6350.630000.380.38FF27.63541.63207443.0216930638100.249993349900311622415220DRYL
2025-07-25 04:00:03FORECAST20253001559.39641.61250.5040000.380.38FF27.396542.396207443.0216930638100.242197026483821612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-25 00:00:02FORECAST20253001557.90239.86648.8840000.380.38FF25.902546.902207443.0216930638100.195655998910731612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-24 20:00:01FORECAST20253001557.09238.91248.0020000.380.38FF25.092545.092207443.0216930638100.172862344802051612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-24 16:00:02FORECAST20253001556.91238.55247.7320000.380.38FF24.912544.912207443.0216930638100.168036049850491612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-24 12:00:02FORECAST20253001555.70637.88646.7960000.380.38FF23.706542.706207443.0216930638100.137955019600641612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-24 08:00:02FORECAST20253001556.37238.89447.6330000.380.38FF24.372543.372207443.0216930638100.154081767177141612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-24 04:00:03FORECAST20253001556.94840.08248.5150000.380.38FF24.948544.948207443.0216930638100.168994322907931612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-24 00:00:02FORECAST20253001558.83841.75650.2970000.380.38FF26.838546.838207443.0216930638100.224148838633821612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-23 20:00:02FORECAST20253001558.65841.0949.8740000.380.38FF26.658542.658207443.0216930638100.218493730977831612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-23 16:00:02FORECAST20253001559.01841.77450.3960000.380.38FF27.018543.018207443.0216930638100.22988600615941612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-23 12:00:02FORECAST20253001558.92841.39650.1620000.380.38FF26.928542.928207443.0216930638100.227007220107561612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-23 08:00:02FORECAST2025300155941.0950.0450000.380.38FF27543207443.0216930638100.229308622086261612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-23 04:00:05FORECAST20253001559.68441.95450.8190000.380.38FF27.684545.684207443.0216930638100.251811200499871622415220DRYL
2025-07-23 00:00:02FORECAST20253001560.27842.7151.4940000.390.39FF28.278539.278207443.0216930638100.272258366945531622415220DRYL
2025-07-22 20:00:02FORECAST20253001559.942.22451.0620000.390.39FF27.9537.9207443.0216930638100.259151717389411622415220DRYL
2025-07-22 16:00:02FORECAST20253001559.84641.66650.7560000.390.39FF27.846538.846207443.0216930638100.257306288126521622415220DRYL
2025-07-22 12:00:02FORECAST20253001559.68441.66650.6750000.390.39FF27.684534.684207443.0216930638100.251811200499871622415220DRYL
2025-07-22 08:00:02FORECAST20253001558.65841.64850.1530000.40.4FF26.658533.658207443.0216930638100.218493730977831612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-22 04:00:04FORECAST20253001558.62241.48650.0540000.40.4FF26.622533.622207443.0216930638100.217372631659421612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-22 00:00:03FORECAST20253001559.12641.88250.50400.0129921330.0129921330.240.252992133FF27.126536.126207443.0216930638100.233367319815241612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-21 20:00:03FORECAST20253001559.0942.81850.95400.0137795350.0137795350.360.373779535FF27.09538.09207443.0216930638100.232203648493621612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-21 16:00:02FORECAST20253001559.61244.4252.01600.0122047310.0122047310.380.392204731FF27.612544.612207443.0216930638100.249388948592421622415220DRYL
2025-07-21 12:00:03FORECAST20253001559.43243.82651.62900.0015748040.0015748040.390.391574804FF27.432550.432207443.0216930638100.243387831308741612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-21 08:00:02FORECAST20253001559.55843.64651.60200.0015748040.0015748040.250.251574804FF27.558553.558207443.0216930638100.24758040795231612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-21 04:00:04FORECAST20253001559.32443.48451.40400.0015748040.0015748040.260.261574804FF27.324549.324207443.0216930638100.23982490681021612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-21 00:00:03FORECAST20253001559.01844.09651.5570000.360.36FF27.018549.018207443.0216930638100.22988600615941612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-20 20:00:03FORECAST20253001561.35843.64652.5020000.480.48FF29.358548.358207443.0216930638100.311425091219131622415220DRYL
2025-07-20 16:00:03FORECAST20253001561.28642.58451.9350000.480.48FF29.286548.286207443.0216930638100.30873935256691622415220DRYL
2025-07-20 12:00:02FORECAST20253001563.08643.2553.1680000.390.39FF31.086548.086207443.0216930638100.378609822770181622415220DRYL
2025-07-20 08:00:03FORECAST20253001562.49243.35852.9250000.370.37FF30.492542.492207443.0216930638100.354972600626161622415220DRYL
2025-07-20 04:00:04FORECAST20253001562.18642.94452.5650000.520.52FF30.186540.186207443.0216930638100.343003679017481622415220DRYL
2025-07-20 00:00:02FORECAST20253001559.75642.06250.9090000.30.3FF27.756537.756207443.0216930638100.254245798523921622415220DRYL
2025-07-19 20:00:03FORECAST20253001559.75641.3650.5580000.350.35FF27.756539.756207443.0216930638100.254245798523921622415220DRYL
2025-07-19 16:00:03FORECAST20253001559.73841.50450.6210000.480.48FF27.738540.738207443.0216930638100.253635995827411622415220DRYL
2025-07-19 12:00:02FORECAST20253001558.87442.27850.5760000.310.31FF26.874546.874207443.0216930638100.225289735436611612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-19 08:00:03FORECAST20253001557.99242.40450.1980000.30.3FF25.992550.992207443.0216930638100.198296393595791612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-19 04:00:04FORECAST20253001558.35242.54850.450000.140.14FF26.352557.352207443.0216930638100.209070712533141612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-19 00:00:03FORECAST20253001559.52240.44249.9820000.680.68FF27.522538.522207443.0216930638100.246378611963861612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-18 20:00:03FORECAST20253001559.52240.44249.9820000.770.77FF27.522536.522207443.0216930638100.246378611963861612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-18 16:00:03FORECAST20253001560.09842.2651.1790000.790.79FF28.098531.098207443.0216930638100.265976278633921622415220DRYL
2025-07-18 12:00:03FORECAST20253001563.10445.57254.3380000.540.54FF31.104537.104207443.0216930638100.379333759448231622415220DRYL
2025-07-18 08:00:03FORECAST20253001563.10444.90654.0050000.450.45FF31.104543.104207443.0216930638100.379333759448231622415220DRYL
2025-07-18 04:00:04FORECAST20253001564.23844.8754.5540000.430.43FF32.238547.238207443.0216930638100.425693383595581622415220DRYL
2025-07-18 00:00:11FORECAST20253001557.4742.76450.117000.080.380.46FF25.47528.47207443.0216930638100.183281166953011612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-17 20:00:03FORECAST20253001557.4742.76450.117000.080.380.46FF25.47530.47207443.0216930638100.183281166953011612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-17 16:00:05FORECAST20253001553.85241.947.876000.080.410.49FF21.852522.852207443.0216930638100.0992538304476431612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-17 12:00:03FORECAST20253001558.02854.33856.1830000.180.18FF26.028547.028207443.0216930638100.199358532112031612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-17 08:00:04FORECAST20253001558.02854.33856.1830000.190.19FF26.028552.028207443.0216930638100.199358532112031612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-17 04:00:05FORECAST20253001556.67856.55256.6150000.190.19FF24.678547.678207443.0216930638100.161892513304861612415217.5DRYL