Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, July 26, 2025

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DAY 299 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/27/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 0.00°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 0.00°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 0.00°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.000 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: -32 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 426 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.41 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.41 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 206 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 442.43 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 14 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 2 D2: 3 D3: 1 D4: 5 D5: 2 HSdry: 15.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2025-07-27 04:00:03	OBSERVATION	2025	299	14			0	0	0	0	0.41	0.41	F	F	-32	426	206	442.43203585831	0	1.2106982083537E-13	16	1	2	3	1	5	2	15	DRY	L
2025-07-27 00:00:01	FORECAST	2025	299	14	56.408	41.792	49.1	0	0	0	0.41	0.41	F	F	24.408	482.408	206	442.43203585831	0	0.15138451530532	16	1	2	3	1	5	2	15	DRY	L
2025-07-26 12:00:01	FORECAST	2025	299	14	54.464	39.92	47.192	0	0	0	0.41	0.41	F	F	22.464	480.464	206	442.43203585831	0	0.10608064930219	16	1	2	3	1	5	2	15	DRY	L
2025-07-26 08:00:02	FORECAST	2025	299	14	56.048	39.632	47.84	0	0	0	0.41	0.41	F	F	24.048	482.048	206	442.43203585831	0	0.14214965105422	16	1	2	3	1	5	2	15	DRY	L
2025-07-26 04:00:02	FORECAST	2025	299	14	56.786	39.794	48.29	0	0	0	0.41	0.41	F	F	24.786	482.786	206	442.43203585831	0	0.16150025105289	16	1	2	3	1	5	2	15	DRY	L
2025-07-26 00:00:02	FORECAST	2025	299	14	57.038	39.92	48.479	0	0	0	0.41	0.41	F	F	25.038	540.038	206	442.43203585831	0	0.16848279680775	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2025-07-25 20:00:01	FORECAST	2025	299	14	56.714	40.478	48.596	0	0	0	0.41	0.41	F	F	24.714	539.714	206	442.43203585831	0	0.15954030968563	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2025-07-25 16:00:01	FORECAST	2025	299	14	56.318	40.946	48.632	0	0	0	0.41	0.41	F	F	24.318	539.318	206	442.43203585831	0	0.14903932872487	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2025-07-25 12:00:01	FORECAST	2025	299	14	56.048	41.738	48.893	0	0.000393701	0.000393701	0.41	0.410393701	F	F	24.048	539.048	206	442.43203585831	0	0.14214965105422	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2025-07-25 08:00:02	FORECAST	2025	299	14	56.318	41.702	49.01	0	0	0	0.41	0.41	F	F	24.318	540.318	206	442.43203585831	0	0.14903932872487	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2025-07-25 04:00:03	FORECAST	2025	299	14	56.516	41.234	48.875	0	0	0	0.41	0.41	F	F	24.516	540.516	206	442.43203585831	0	0.15423087561793	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2025-07-25 00:00:01	FORECAST	2025	299	14	55.382	40.316	47.849	0	0	0	0.41	0.41	F	F	23.382	547.382	206	442.43203585831	0	0.12608589746688	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2025-07-24 20:00:01	FORECAST	2025	299	14	54.482	39.398	46.94	0	0	0	0.41	0.41	F	F	22.482	546.482	206	442.43203585831	0	0.10644954787558	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2025-07-24 16:00:02	FORECAST	2025	299	14	54.05	39.308	46.679	0	0	0	0.41	0.41	F	F	22.05	546.05	206	442.43203585831	0	0.097848619586833	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2025-07-24 12:00:02	FORECAST	2025	299	14	53.6	39.002	46.301	0	0	0	0.41	0.41	F	F	21.6	544.6	206	442.43203585831	0	0.089441112866264	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2025-07-24 08:00:02	FORECAST	2025	299	14	53.312	38.732	46.022	0	0	0	0.41	0.41	F	F	21.312	545.312	206	442.43203585831	0	0.084348838047558	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2025-07-24 04:00:03	FORECAST	2025	299	14	53.708	40.154	46.931	0	0	0	0.41	0.41	F	F	21.708	545.708	206	442.43203585831	0	0.091408343905604	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2025-07-24 00:00:02	FORECAST	2025	299	14	55.85	41.99	48.92	0	0	0	0.41	0.41	F	F	23.85	545.85	206	442.43203585831	0	0.13723597519408	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2025-07-23 20:00:02	FORECAST	2025	299	14	55.85	40.892	48.371	0	0	0	0.41	0.41	F	F	23.85	541.85	206	442.43203585831	0	0.13723597519408	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2025-07-23 16:00:01	FORECAST	2025	299	14	56.03	40.712	48.371	0	0	0	0.41	0.41	F	F	24.03	542.03	206	442.43203585831	0	0.14169810848696	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2025-07-23 12:00:02	FORECAST	2025	299	14	56.03	40.64	48.335	0	0	0	0.41	0.41	F	F	24.03	542.03	206	442.43203585831	0	0.14169810848696	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2025-07-23 08:00:02	FORECAST	2025	299	14	55.796	41.27	48.533	0	0	0	0.41	0.41	F	F	23.796	541.796	206	442.43203585831	0	0.13591620187513	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2025-07-23 04:00:05	FORECAST	2025	299	14	56.408	41.684	49.046	0	0	0	0.41	0.41	F	F	24.408	544.408	206	442.43203585831	0	0.15138451530532	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2025-07-23 00:00:02	FORECAST	2025	299	14	56.948	41.702	49.325	0	0	0	0.42	0.42	F	F	24.948	536.948	206	442.43203585831	0	0.16596711919563	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2025-07-22 20:00:02	FORECAST	2025	299	14	56.84	40.388	48.614	0	0	0	0.42	0.42	F	F	24.84	535.84	206	442.43203585831	0	0.16298043923987	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2025-07-22 16:00:02	FORECAST	2025	299	14	56.516	41.756	49.136	0	0	0	0.42	0.42	F	F	24.516	536.516	206	442.43203585831	0	0.15423087561793	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2025-07-22 12:00:02	FORECAST	2025	299	14	54.626	41.45	48.038	0	0	0	0.42	0.42	F	F	22.626	532.626	206	442.43203585831	0	0.10943400866843	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2025-07-22 08:00:02	FORECAST	2025	299	14	54.5	40.982	47.741	0	0	0	0.43	0.43	F	F	22.5	532.5	206	442.43203585831	0	0.10681936881272	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2025-07-22 04:00:04	FORECAST	2025	299	14	54.446	41.324	47.885	0	0	0	0.43	0.43	F	F	22.446	533.446	206	442.43203585831	0	0.10571267228011	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2025-07-22 00:00:02	FORECAST	2025	299	14	57.272	40.298	48.785	0	0	0	0.27	0.27	F	F	25.272	535.272	206	442.43203585831	0	0.1751373393484	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2025-07-21 20:00:02	FORECAST	2025	299	14	59.072	41.756	50.414	0	0	0	0.39	0.39	F	F	27.072	537.072	206	442.43203585831	0	0.23172839585489	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2025-07-21 16:00:02	FORECAST	2025	299	14	59.882	43.412	51.647	0	0	0	0.41	0.41	F	F	27.882	542.882	206	442.43203585831	0	0.26018185714188	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2025-07-21 12:00:03	FORECAST	2025	299	14	61.646	43.736	52.691	0	0.003149608	0.003149608	0.42	0.423149608	F	F	29.646	548.646	206	442.43203585831	0	0.32780762746964	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2025-07-21 08:00:02	FORECAST	2025	299	14	60.602	42.908	51.755	0	0.003149608	0.003149608	0.28	0.283149608	F	F	28.602	551.602	206	442.43203585831	0	0.28690418287626	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2025-07-21 04:00:03	FORECAST	2025	299	14	60.242	42.692	51.467	0	0.002755907	0.002755907	0.29	0.292755907	F	F	28.242	548.242	206	442.43203585831	0	0.27338154334794	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2025-07-21 00:00:03	FORECAST	2025	299	14	60.152	43.502	51.827	0	0	0	0.39	0.39	F	F	28.152	548.152	206	442.43203585831	0	0.27005081367818	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2025-07-20 20:00:03	FORECAST	2025	299	14	59.216	42.584	50.9	0	0	0	0.51	0.51	F	F	27.216	545.216	206	442.43203585831	0	0.23665677644859	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2025-07-20 16:00:03	FORECAST	2025	299	14	58.514	42.35	50.432	0	0	0	0.51	0.51	F	F	26.514	544.514	206	442.43203585831	0	0.21318013876756	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2025-07-20 12:00:02	FORECAST	2025	299	14	59.846	42.008	50.927	0	0	0	0.42	0.42	F	F	27.846	542.846	206	442.43203585831	0	0.25888016324427	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2025-07-20 08:00:02	FORECAST	2025	299	14	58.352	42.206	50.279	0	0	0	0.4	0.4	F	F	26.352	538.352	206	442.43203585831	0	0.20796157493351	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2025-07-20 04:00:04	FORECAST	2025	299	14	58.388	42.134	50.261	0	0	0	0.55	0.55	F	F	26.388	536.388	206	442.43203585831	0	0.20911470467111	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2025-07-20 00:00:02	FORECAST	2025	299	14	57.668	41.774	49.721	0	0	0	0.33	0.33	F	F	25.668	535.668	206	442.43203585831	0	0.18677199566098	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2025-07-19 20:00:03	FORECAST	2025	299	14	58.262	41.558	49.91	0	0	0	0.38	0.38	F	F	26.262	538.262	206	442.43203585831	0	0.20509519342487	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2025-07-19 16:00:03	FORECAST	2025	299	14	58.676	42.062	50.369	0	0	0	0.51	0.51	F	F	26.676	538.676	206	442.43203585831	0	0.21847414230282	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2025-07-19 12:00:02	FORECAST	2025	299	14	58.352	42.548	50.45	0	0	0	0.34	0.34	F	F	26.352	546.352	206	442.43203585831	0	0.20796157493351	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2025-07-19 08:00:03	FORECAST	2025	299	14	58.082	41.054	49.568	0	0	0	0.33	0.33	F	F	26.082	551.082	206	442.43203585831	0	0.19943321577241	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2025-07-19 04:00:04	FORECAST	2025	299	14	58.082	40.856	49.469	0	0	0	0.17	0.17	F	F	26.082	557.082	206	442.43203585831	0	0.19943321577241	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2025-07-19 00:00:03	FORECAST	2025	299	14	55.742	40.028	47.885	0	0	0	0.71	0.71	F	F	23.742	536.742	206	442.43203585831	0	0.13460512009561	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2025-07-18 20:00:03	FORECAST	2025	299	14	55.742	41.504	48.623	0	0	0	0.8	0.8	F	F	23.742	534.742	206	442.43203585831	0	0.13460512009561	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2025-07-18 16:00:03	FORECAST	2025	299	14	57.002	42.278	49.64	0	0	0	0.82	0.82	F	F	25.002	529.002	206	442.43203585831	0	0.16747360569541	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2025-07-18 12:00:03	FORECAST	2025	299	14	59.864	46.04	52.952	0	0	0	0.57	0.57	F	F	27.864	531.864	206	442.43203585831	0	0.25953058934779	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2025-07-18 08:00:03	FORECAST	2025	299	14	59.432	45.788	52.61	0	0	0	0.48	0.48	F	F	27.432	538.432	206	442.43203585831	0	0.24415606398875	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2025-07-18 04:00:04	FORECAST	2025	299	14	59.09	45.266	52.178	0	0	0	0.46	0.46	F	F	27.09	541.09	206	442.43203585831	0	0.23234130418778	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2025-07-18 00:00:11	FORECAST	2025	299	14	53.546	44.96	49.253	0	0.070078778	0.080078778	0.41	0.490078778	F	F	21.546	528.546	206	442.43203585831	0	0.088469346787459	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2025-07-17 20:00:03	FORECAST	2025	299	14	53.546	44.96	49.253	0	0.070078778	0.080078778	0.41	0.490078778	F	F	21.546	530.546	206	442.43203585831	0	0.088469346787459	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2025-07-17 16:00:04	FORECAST	2025	299	14	53.222	44.456	48.839	0	0.071653582	0.081653582	0.44	0.521653582	F	F	21.222	527.222	206	442.43203585831	0	0.082802834027511	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2025-07-17 12:00:02	FORECAST	2025	299	14	66.722	46.544	56.633	0	0	0	0.21	0.21	F	F	34.722	546.722	206	442.43203585831	0	0.54788169595171	16	3	2	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2025-07-17 08:00:04	FORECAST	2025	299	14	66.722	44.294	55.508	0	0	0	0.22	0.22	F	F	34.722	551.722	206	442.43203585831	0	0.54788169595171	16	3	2	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2025-07-17 04:00:05	FORECAST	2025	299	14	65.552	45.806	55.679	0	0	0	0.22	0.22	F	F	33.552	548.552	206	442.43203585831	0	0.49592487553251	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2025-07-17 00:00:04	FORECAST	2025	299	14	52.484	46.904	49.694	0	0	0	0.13	0.13	F	F	20.484	536.484	206	442.43203585831	0	0.070917619162842	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2025-07-16 20:00:03	FORECAST	2025	299	14	52.484	46.904	49.694	0	0	0	0.13	0.13	F	F	20.484	538.484	206	442.43203585831	0	0.070917619162842	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2025-07-16 16:00:03	FORECAST	2025	299	14	58.982	44.528	51.755	0	0	0	0.13	0.13	F	F	26.982	530.982	206	442.43203585831	0	0.22867738267334	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2025-07-16 12:00:03	FORECAST	2025	299	14	59.81	55.166	57.488	0	0	0	0.23	0.23	F	F	27.81	538.81	206	442.43203585831	0	0.2575818421972	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2025-07-16 08:00:03	FORECAST	2025	299	14	59.81	55.166	57.488	0	0	0	0.23	0.23	F	F	27.81	534.81	206	442.43203585831	0	0.2575818421972	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2025-07-16 04:00:05	FORECAST	2025	299	14	48.524	46.958	47.741	0	0	0	0.21	0.21	F	F	16.524	514.524	206	442.43203585831	0	0.027910163601509	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L