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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, July 25, 2025

[ Thursday, July 24, 2025 | Index | Today | Saturday, July 26, 2025 ]

DAY 298 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/26/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 0.00°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 0.00°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 0.00°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.000
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -32
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 499

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.41 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.41 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 205
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 441.84 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 13

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 2
D2: 3
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 15.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-07-26 04:00:02OBSERVATION20252981300000.410.41FF-32499205441.84013369272 02.2976065494618E-1316 12315215DRYL
2025-07-26 00:00:02FORECAST20252981356.98442.22449.6040000.410.41FF24.984555.984205441.8401336927200.184256517712051612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-25 12:00:01FORECAST20252981356.76842.5349.6490000.410.41FF24.768555.768205441.8401336927200.177926372339931612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-25 08:00:01FORECAST20252981358.2843.59250.9360000.410.41FF26.28557.28205441.8401336927200.225100797945061612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-25 04:00:02FORECAST20252981357.93843.59250.7650000.410.41FF25.938556.938205441.8401336927200.213852782328121612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-25 00:00:01FORECAST20252981358.29843.53850.9180000.410.41FF26.298565.298205441.8401336927200.225701923663471612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-24 20:00:01FORECAST20252981357.77642.56650.1710000.410.41FF25.776564.776205441.8401336927200.208640882045321612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-24 16:00:02FORECAST20252981357.54242.58450.0630000.410.41FF25.542564.542205441.8401336927200.201245992990981612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-24 12:00:02FORECAST20252981356.98442.65649.820000.410.41FF24.984563.984205441.8401336927200.184256517712051612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-24 08:00:01FORECAST20252981356.76842.67449.7210000.410.41FF24.768564.768205441.8401336927200.177926372339931612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-24 04:00:03FORECAST20252981357.34443.80850.5760000.410.41FF25.344565.344205441.8401336927200.195112981478561612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-24 00:00:01FORECAST20252981358.80245.93252.3670000.410.41FF26.802562.802205441.8401336927200.242897056037121612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-23 20:00:02FORECAST20252981357.45244.70851.080000.410.41FF25.452559.452205441.8401336927200.198444086555641612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-23 16:00:01FORECAST20252981357.36244.56450.9630000.410.41FF25.362559.362205441.8401336927200.195665798190811612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-23 12:00:02FORECAST20252981357.48844.83451.1610000.410.41FF25.488559.488205441.8401336927200.199562019403961612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-23 08:00:02FORECAST20252981357.32644.7851.0530000.410.41FF25.326559.326205441.8401336927200.194561113133951612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-23 04:00:05FORECAST20252981358.0145.06851.5390000.410.41FF26.01561.01205441.8401336927200.216193257475811612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-23 00:00:02FORECAST20252981357.90244.74451.3230000.420.42FF25.902552.902205441.8401336927200.212688088635751612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-22 20:00:02FORECAST20252981358.1943.98851.0890000.420.42FF26.19552.19205441.8401336927200.22210878802571612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-22 16:00:01FORECAST20252981358.33444.83451.5840000.420.42FF26.334553.334205441.8401336927200.226906890599731612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-22 12:00:02FORECAST20252981357.3844.45650.9180000.420.42FF25.38551.38205441.8401336927200.196219562687511612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-22 08:00:02FORECAST20252981357.32644.81651.0710000.430.43FF25.326551.326205441.8401336927200.194561113133951612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-22 04:00:03FORECAST20252981356.78644.34850.5670000.430.43FF24.786551.786205441.8401336927200.178448598340611612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-22 00:00:02FORECAST20252981357.45245.01451.2330000.270.27FF25.452551.452205441.8401336927200.198444086555641612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-21 20:00:02FORECAST20252981357.43444.92451.1790000.390.39FF25.434551.434205441.8401336927200.197886536924171612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-21 16:00:02FORECAST20252981359.70245.84252.7720000.410.41FF27.702555.702205441.8401336927200.275283794663491622415220DRYL
2025-07-21 12:00:03FORECAST20252981360.51246.47253.4920000.420.42FF28.512559.512205441.8401336927200.306139691876581622415220DRYL
2025-07-21 08:00:02FORECAST20252981361.89846.6754.2840000.280.28FF29.898563.898205441.8401336927200.362163867549921622415220DRYL
2025-07-21 04:00:03FORECAST20252981361.10645.87853.4920000.290.29FF29.106561.106205441.8401336927200.329693049175091622415220DRYL
2025-07-21 00:00:03FORECAST20252981361.26845.30253.2850000.390.39FF29.268561.268205441.8401336927200.336240888691641622415220DRYL
2025-07-20 20:00:02FORECAST20252981361.12444.83452.9790000.510.51FF29.124559.124205441.8401336927200.330418062349271622415220DRYL
2025-07-20 16:00:03FORECAST20252981361.01645.19453.1050000.510.51FF29.016559.016205441.8401336927200.326077614465181622415220DRYL
2025-07-20 12:00:02FORECAST20252981359.21644.8752.0430000.420.42FF27.216556.216205441.8401336927200.257534575836841622415220DRYL
2025-07-20 08:00:02FORECAST20252981359.16244.67251.9170000.40.4FF27.162553.162205441.8401336927200.255599729787651622415220DRYL
2025-07-20 04:00:04FORECAST20252981359.21644.76251.9890000.550.55FF27.216551.216205441.8401336927200.257534575836841622415220DRYL
2025-07-20 00:00:02FORECAST20252981359.32444.18651.7550000.330.33FF27.324551.324205441.8401336927200.261426934944371622415220DRYL
2025-07-19 20:00:03FORECAST20252981359.19844.36651.7820000.380.38FF27.198553.198205441.8401336927200.25688878415391622415220DRYL
2025-07-19 16:00:03FORECAST20252981359.93644.61852.2770000.510.51FF27.936552.936205441.8401336927200.284039108287861622415220DRYL
2025-07-19 12:00:02FORECAST20252981359.91844.72652.3220000.340.34FF27.918560.918205441.8401336927200.283360924196111622415220DRYL
2025-07-19 08:00:03FORECAST20252981360.24244.29452.2680000.330.33FF28.242566.242205441.8401336927200.295685241785781622415220DRYL
2025-07-19 04:00:04FORECAST20252981360.54844.31252.430000.170.17FF28.548571.548205441.8401336927200.30754587398341622415220DRYL
2025-07-19 00:00:02FORECAST20252981358.1943.75450.9720000.710.71FF26.19554.19205441.8401336927200.22210878802571612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-18 20:00:03FORECAST20252981356.55245.15850.8550000.80.8FF24.552551.552205441.8401336927200.171734821783591612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-18 16:00:03FORECAST20252981358.24444.81651.530000.820.82FF26.244545.244205441.8401336927200.223901267187611612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-18 12:00:02FORECAST20252981360.13446.41853.2760000.570.57FF28.134545.134205441.8401336927200.291549854218531622415220DRYL
2025-07-18 08:00:03FORECAST20252981360.54847.26453.9060000.480.48FF28.548551.548205441.8401336927200.30754587398341622415220DRYL
2025-07-18 04:00:04FORECAST20252981359.66646.68853.1770000.460.46FF27.666554.666205441.8401336927200.273948693119651622415220DRYL
2025-07-18 00:00:10FORECAST20252981360.87249.33455.10300.0110236280.0410236280.380.421023628FF28.872547.872205441.8401336927200.320326866167281622415220DRYL
2025-07-17 20:00:03FORECAST20252981360.87249.33455.10300.0110236280.0410236280.380.421023628FF28.872549.872205441.8401336927200.320326866167281622415220DRYL
2025-07-17 16:00:04FORECAST20252981361.08849.24455.16600.0114173290.0314173290.420.451417329FF29.088547.088205441.8401336927200.328968674976581622415220DRYL
2025-07-17 12:00:02FORECAST20252981361.41248.90255.157000.050.160.21FF29.412553.412205441.8401336927200.342103243462081622415220DRYL
2025-07-17 08:00:03FORECAST20252981360.92647.40854.167000.060.160.22FF28.926557.926205441.8401336927200.322478443434771622415220DRYL
2025-07-17 04:00:05FORECAST20252981361.73648.63255.184000.050.170.22FF29.736555.736205441.8401336927200.355431586063441622415220DRYL
2025-07-17 00:00:03FORECAST20252981363.57249.47856.525000.020.110.13FF31.572556.572205441.8401336927200.433875863554751622415220DRYL
2025-07-16 20:00:03FORECAST20252981363.57249.47856.525000.020.110.13FF31.572558.572205441.8401336927200.433875863554751622415220DRYL
2025-07-16 16:00:02FORECAST20252981360.76447.69654.23000.020.110.13FF28.764544.764205441.8401336927200.316041827065531622415220DRYL
2025-07-16 12:00:03FORECAST20252981369.00847.10258.055000.10.130.23FF37.008552.008205441.8401336927200.669315381108811632425190DRYVH
2025-07-16 08:00:03FORECAST20252981369.00847.10258.055000.10.130.23FF37.008548.008205441.8401336927200.669315381108811632425190DRYVH
2025-07-16 04:00:05FORECAST20252981367.47844.63656.057000.10.110.21FF35.478539.478205441.8401336927200.605600334391841632425245DRYM
2025-07-16 00:00:03FORECAST20252981353.8744.67249.2710000.10.1FF21.87533.87205441.8401336927200.106398676719611612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-15 20:00:03FORECAST20252981353.8744.67249.2710000.10.1FF21.87538.87205441.8401336927200.106398676719611612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-15 16:00:03FORECAST20252981359.16246.54452.8530000.10.1FF27.162545.162205441.8401336927200.255599729787651622415220DRYL
2025-07-15 12:00:03FORECAST20252981361.3456.358.82000.010.180.19FF29.34556.34205441.8401336927200.339167202022331622415220DRYL
2025-07-15 08:00:03FORECAST20252981361.3456.358.82000.010.180.19FF29.34562.34205441.8401336927200.339167202022331622415220DRYL
2025-07-15 04:00:05FORECAST20252981359.16256.8458.001000.010.130.14FF27.162550.162205441.8401336927200.255599729787651622415220DRYL