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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, July 23, 2025

[ Tuesday, July 22, 2025 | Index | Today | Thursday, July 24, 2025 ]

DAY 296 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/24/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
VH
VERY HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 69.15°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 51.51°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 60.33°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.731
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 37
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 517

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.32 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.09 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.41 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 203
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 441.48 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.92 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 11

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 2
D2: 4
D3: 2
D4: 4
D5: 1
HSdry: 80.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-07-24 04:00:02OBSERVATION20252961169.1500251.5100260.330022.0915312500.320.090.41FF37.15002517.15002203441.48273647128 0.923374939665190.7309716768139816 42424180DRYVH
2025-07-24 00:00:01FORECAST20252961163.6843.37653.528000.320.090.41FF31.68511.68203440.6495602603600.510140361129511632425245DRYM
2025-07-23 12:00:01FORECAST20252961163.30243.41253.357000.320.090.41FF31.302511.302203440.6495602603600.493867532511191622425240DRYM
2025-07-23 08:00:01FORECAST20252961163.21244.52853.87000.320.090.41FF31.212511.212203440.6495602603600.48999353989061622425240DRYM
2025-07-23 04:00:04FORECAST20252961163.71644.54654.131000.320.090.41FF31.716511.716203440.6495602603600.511689700229841632425245DRYM
2025-07-23 00:00:01FORECAST20252961163.46444.43853.951000.330.090.42FF31.464504.464203440.6495602603600.500841931346341632425245DRYM
2025-07-22 20:00:01FORECAST20252961163.10445.51854.311000.330.090.42FF31.104504.104203440.6495602603600.485346026622991622425240DRYM
2025-07-22 16:00:01FORECAST20252961163.19445.9554.572000.330.090.42FF31.194504.194203440.6495602603600.489218842931021622425240DRYM
2025-07-22 12:00:01FORECAST20252961162.85248.09255.472000.330.090.42FF30.852503.852203440.6495602603600.474510655190581622425240DRYM
2025-07-22 08:00:02FORECAST20252961163.01448.30855.661000.340.090.43FF31.014504.014203440.6495602603600.481474592053861622425240DRYM
2025-07-22 04:00:03FORECAST20252961163.0548.63255.841000.340.090.43FF31.05505.05203440.6495602603600.48302297673061622425240DRYM
2025-07-22 00:00:02FORECAST20252961163.6848.4756.075000.180.090.27FF31.68503.68203440.6495602603600.510140361129511632425245DRYM
2025-07-21 20:00:02FORECAST20252961163.30248.12855.715000.30.090.39FF31.302503.302203440.6495602603600.493867532511191622425240DRYM
2025-07-21 16:00:01FORECAST20252961164.448.84856.624000.320.090.41FF32.4505.4203440.6495602603600.541067059725141632425245DRYM
2025-07-21 12:00:02FORECAST20252961164.83248.14656.489000.330.090.42FF32.832506.832203440.6495602603600.559516400400951632425245DRYM
2025-07-21 08:00:02FORECAST20252961165.73248.16456.948000.190.090.28FF33.732508.732203440.6495602603600.597495674804311632425245DRYM
2025-07-21 04:00:03FORECAST20252961165.24647.82256.534000.20.090.29FF33.246506.246203440.6495602603600.577077118350131632425245DRYM
2025-07-21 00:00:02FORECAST20252961164.92247.51656.219000.290.10.39FF32.922506.922203440.6495602603600.563345158091171632425245DRYM
2025-07-20 20:00:02FORECAST20252961164.6747.91256.291000.350.160.51FF32.67505.67203440.6495602603600.55261083269751632425245DRYM
2025-07-20 16:00:02FORECAST20252961164.5847.42656.003000.350.160.51FF32.58505.58203440.6495602603600.548767366244961632425245DRYM
2025-07-20 12:00:02FORECAST20252961163.84246.455.121000.260.160.42FF31.842504.842203440.6495602603600.51711084473371632425245DRYM
2025-07-20 08:00:02FORECAST20252961163.545.62654.563000.270.130.4FF31.5502.5203440.6495602603600.502391837861791632425245DRYM
2025-07-20 04:00:03FORECAST20252961163.24845.69854.473000.410.140.55FF31.248501.248203440.6495602603600.491543044140551622425240DRYM
2025-07-20 00:00:02FORECAST20252961163.10446.05854.581000.210.120.33FF31.104501.104203440.6495602603600.485346026622991622425240DRYM
2025-07-19 20:00:02FORECAST20252961163.7746.52655.148000.260.120.38FF31.77502.77203440.6495602603600.514013370848471632425245DRYM
2025-07-19 16:00:02FORECAST20252961163.66245.62654.644000.390.120.51FF31.662501.662203440.6495602603600.509365632735091632425245DRYM
2025-07-19 12:00:02FORECAST20252961164.5846.74255.661000.230.110.34FF32.58507.58203440.6495602603600.548767366244961632425245DRYM
2025-07-19 08:00:02FORECAST20252961165.89447.53456.714000.230.10.33FF33.894512.894203440.6495602603600.604246092227681632425245DRYM
2025-07-19 04:00:04FORECAST20252961166.75847.76857.263000.070.10.17FF34.758517.758203440.6495602603600.63967707782511632415222.5DRYL
2025-07-19 00:00:02FORECAST20252961165.01247.91256.462000.620.090.71FF33.012504.012203440.6495602603600.567167991220211632435267.5DRYH
2025-07-18 20:00:03FORECAST20252961163.547.82255.661000.710.090.8FF31.5503.5203440.6495602603600.502391837861791632435267.5DRYH
2025-07-18 16:00:03FORECAST20252961162.63647.22854.932000.720.10.82FF30.636496.636203440.6495602603600.4652378731681622335252.5DRYMH
2025-07-18 12:00:02FORECAST20252961163.01447.1255.067000.470.10.57FF31.014496.014203440.6495602603600.481474592053861622325235DRYL
2025-07-18 08:00:03FORECAST20252961164.77848.256.48900.0031496080.3831496080.10.483149608FF32.778500.778203440.6495602603600.557216448550451632425245DRYM
2025-07-18 04:00:04FORECAST20252961164.70647.69656.20100.0031496080.3731496080.090.463149608FF32.706504.706203440.6495602603600.554146857741371632425245DRYM
2025-07-18 00:00:08FORECAST20252961163.60847.51655.56200.0259842660.2959842660.110.405984266FF31.608494.608203440.6495602603600.507041247235481632325240DRYM
2025-07-17 20:00:03FORECAST20252961164.05847.89455.97600.0259842660.2959842660.110.405984266FF32.058497.058203440.6495602603600.526396326006361632325240DRYM
2025-07-17 16:00:03FORECAST20252961163.60847.71455.66100.0240157610.3340157610.110.444015761FF31.608493.608203440.6495602603600.507041247235481632325240DRYM
2025-07-17 12:00:02FORECAST20252961163.96849.13656.55200.0476378210.1176378210.090.207637821FF31.968500.968203440.6495602603600.522528827569161632425245DRYM
2025-07-17 08:00:03FORECAST20252961164.32848.18256.25500.0582677480.1282677480.090.218267748FF32.328505.328203440.6495602603600.53798245282881632425245DRYM
2025-07-17 04:00:04FORECAST20252961163.89648.09255.99400.0492126250.1292126250.090.219212625FF31.896501.896203440.6495602603600.519433282830441632425245DRYM
2025-07-17 00:00:03FORECAST20252961165.44446.38255.91300.0165354420.0365354420.090.126535442FF33.444497.444203440.6495602603600.585424107330221632315220DRYL
2025-07-16 20:00:03FORECAST20252961167.3747.78657.57800.0165354420.0365354420.090.126535442FF35.37499.37203440.6495602603600.664087077059021632415222.5DRYL
2025-07-16 16:00:02FORECAST20252961165.37247.0356.20100.019685050.039685050.090.12968505FF33.372492.372203440.6495602603600.582393089727021632315220DRYL
2025-07-16 12:00:03FORECAST20252961162.6947.08454.88700.098425250.128425250.10.22842525FF30.69492.69203440.6495602603600.467554497800681622325235DRYL
2025-07-16 08:00:02FORECAST20252961160.67445.87853.27600.098425250.128425250.10.22842525FF28.674488.674203440.6495602603600.382476406807441622325235DRYL
2025-07-16 04:00:04FORECAST20252961159.30644.34851.82700.0988189510.1188189510.090.208818951FF27.306483.306203440.6495602603600.327575113473911622325235DRYL
2025-07-16 00:00:02FORECAST20252961162.49245.78854.140000.10.1FF30.492491.492203440.6495602603600.459066176012791622315217.5DRYL
2025-07-15 20:00:03FORECAST20252961162.49245.55454.0230000.10.1FF30.492496.492203440.6495602603600.459066176012791622315217.5DRYL
2025-07-15 16:00:03FORECAST20252961162.07843.82652.9520000.10.1FF30.078497.078203440.6495602603600.44138252312251622315217.5DRYL
2025-07-15 12:00:03FORECAST20252961160.1743.64651.90800.0070866180.0370866180.150.187086618FF28.17490.17203440.6495602603600.361903705482081622315217.5DRYL
2025-07-15 08:00:03FORECAST20252961160.1743.64651.90800.0070866180.0370866180.150.187086618FF28.17496.17203440.6495602603600.361903705482081622315217.5DRYL
2025-07-15 04:00:05FORECAST20252961158.31643.50250.90900.0110236280.0410236280.10.141023628FF26.316489.316203440.6495602603600.289972643208081622315217.5DRYL
2025-07-15 00:00:03FORECAST20252961163.91442.81853.36600.0047244120.0047244120.10.104724412FF31.914503.914203440.6495602603600.520207286205051632415222.5DRYL
2025-07-14 20:00:03FORECAST20252961162.85242.5352.69100.0047244120.0047244120.10.104724412FF30.852497.852203440.6495602603600.474510655190581622315217.5DRYL
2025-07-14 16:00:03FORECAST20252961163.80643.95253.87900.0047244120.0047244120.090.094724412FF31.806500.806203440.6495602603600.515562225176911632415222.5DRYL
2025-07-14 12:00:03FORECAST20252961162.34840.76651.557000.020.090.11FF30.348495.348203440.6495602603600.452904328648611622315217.5DRYL
2025-07-14 08:00:03FORECAST20252961162.34840.76651.557000.020.090.11FF30.348491.348203440.6495602603600.452904328648611622315217.5DRYL
2025-07-14 04:00:05FORECAST20252961162.52845.8654.19400.0322834820.3722834820.090.462283482FF30.528487.528203440.6495602603600.460608234454671622325235DRYL
2025-07-14 00:00:03FORECAST20252961149.51444.72647.120000.110.11FF17.514497.514203440.6495602603600.0662458185188661612315215DRYL
2025-07-13 20:00:03FORECAST20252961149.51444.72647.120000.110.11FF17.514499.514203440.6495602603600.0662458185188661612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-13 16:00:03FORECAST20252961147.24643.19645.2210000.110.11FF15.246497.246203440.6495602603600.040063846031581612315215DRYL
2025-07-13 12:00:03FORECAST20252961154.6849.9152.295000.030.090.12FF22.68519.68203440.6495602603600.172081336105461612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-13 08:00:03FORECAST20252961154.6849.9152.295000.040.090.13FF22.68523.68203440.6495602603600.172081336105461612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-13 04:00:07FORECAST20252961150.8148.7449.775000.030.090.12FF18.81514.81203440.6495602603600.0862605571636441612415217.5DRYL