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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, July 21, 2025

[ Sunday, July 20, 2025 | Index | Today | Tuesday, July 22, 2025 ]

DAY 294 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/22/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 55.63°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 44.63°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 50.13°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.201
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 24
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 383

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.32 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.32 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.11 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.43 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 201
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 440.08 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.69 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 9

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 2
D2: 2
D3: 2
D4: 4
D5: 2
HSdry: 20.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-07-22 04:00:03OBSERVATION2025294955.6300444.6300650.130051.57644041666670.320000000000050.320000000000050.110.43000000000005FF23.63004382.63004201440.08309477852 0.69376477730060.201320207319216 12224220DRYL
2025-07-22 00:00:01FORECAST2025294953.8742.33248.10100.1610237090.1610237090.110.271023709FF21.87380.87201439.4499039988800.155139141049911612225225DRYL
2025-07-21 12:00:02FORECAST2025294954.5942.54848.56900.271653690.271653690.110.38165369FF22.59381.59201439.4499039988800.173115167712381612225225DRYL
2025-07-21 08:00:01FORECAST2025294956.0342.69249.36100.1547244930.1547244930.110.264724493FF24.03383.03201439.4499039988800.212860031522611612225225DRYL
2025-07-21 04:00:03FORECAST2025294954.28442.85448.56900.1700788320.1700788320.110.280078832FF22.284381.284201439.4499039988800.165319563341441612225225DRYL
2025-07-21 00:00:02FORECAST2025294953.43842.54847.99300.2208662610.2308662610.110.340866261FF21.438382.438201439.4499039988800.14496569145121612225225DRYL
2025-07-20 20:00:01FORECAST2025294951.40441.9946.69700.279527710.349527710.110.45952771FF19.404381.404201439.4499039988800.103151162571861612225225DRYL
2025-07-20 16:00:02FORECAST2025294952.35841.16246.7600.3015749660.3715749660.110.481574966FF20.358382.358201439.4499039988800.121527963117231612225225DRYL
2025-07-20 12:00:01FORECAST2025294952.03441.14446.58900.2031497160.2731497160.110.383149716FF20.034382.034201439.4499039988800.115045667308121612225225DRYL
2025-07-20 08:00:02FORECAST2025294952.6140.87446.74200.1960630980.2360630980.110.346063098FF20.61380.61201439.4499039988800.126743659573481612225225DRYL
2025-07-20 04:00:03FORECAST2025294951.72840.08245.90500.3484253850.3984253850.110.508425385FF19.728378.728201439.4499039988800.109152181571611612225225DRYL
2025-07-20 00:00:01FORECAST2025294953.61839.77646.69700.1562992970.1862992970.110.296299297FF21.618378.618201439.4499039988800.149148877167981612225225DRYL
2025-07-19 20:00:02FORECAST2025294954.89639.63247.26400.2082678290.2382678290.110.348267829FF22.896378.896201439.4499039988800.181140413393831612225225DRYL
2025-07-19 16:00:02FORECAST2025294953.07840.47846.77800.3488190860.3788190860.110.488819086FF21.078378.078201439.4499039988800.136837631181911612225225DRYL
2025-07-19 12:00:02FORECAST2025294955.9440.76648.35300.2003938090.2203938090.110.330393809FF23.94380.94201439.4499039988800.210230248051291612225225DRYL
2025-07-19 08:00:02FORECAST2025294957.25441.66649.4600.1897638820.1997638820.110.309763882FF25.254385.254201439.4499039988800.250479378949661622225230DRYL
2025-07-19 04:00:03FORECAST2025294958.60441.7250.16200.0523622330.0623622330.110.172362233FF26.604387.604201439.4499039988800.295728558267241622215215DRYL
2025-07-19 00:00:02FORECAST2025294956.19242.8949.54100.2358268990.2358268990.110.345826899FF24.192379.192201439.4499039988800.217641628447811612225225DRYL
2025-07-18 20:00:02FORECAST2025294954.80642.67448.7400.3295277370.3295277370.110.439527737FF22.806379.806201439.4499039988800.178756264341281612225225DRYL
2025-07-18 16:00:02FORECAST2025294953.18642.8948.03800.3362206540.3462206540.110.456220654FF21.186377.186201439.4499039988800.139242749014811612225225DRYL
2025-07-18 12:00:02FORECAST2025294952.75441.64847.20100.342519870.352519870.110.46251987FF20.754374.754201439.4499039988800.129792864263461612225225DRYL
2025-07-18 08:00:02FORECAST2025294951.56641.59446.5800.2574804540.2674804540.110.377480454FF19.566374.566201439.4499039988800.106121128477311612225225DRYL
2025-07-18 04:00:03FORECAST2025294954.30242.51248.40700.2535434440.2535434440.110.363543444FF22.302378.302201439.4499039988800.165771757991821612225225DRYL
2025-07-18 00:00:05FORECAST2025294952.9741.5447.25500.1917323870.2117323870.110.321732387FF20.97371.97201439.4499039988800.134460984182591612225225DRYL
2025-07-17 20:00:02FORECAST2025294953.13242.09847.61500.1917323870.2117323870.110.321732387FF21.132374.132201439.4499039988800.138036627847431612225225DRYL
2025-07-17 16:00:02FORECAST2025294953.47442.40447.93900.1913386860.2113386860.110.321338686FF21.474372.474201439.4499039988800.145795963713521612225225DRYL
2025-07-17 12:00:02FORECAST2025294956.69642.96249.82900.0188976480.0188976480.110.128897648FF24.696376.696201439.4499039988800.232907217240681612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-17 08:00:03FORECAST2025294957.34443.26850.30600.0188976480.0188976480.110.128897648FF25.344380.344201439.4499039988800.253377877859341622215215DRYL
2025-07-17 04:00:04FORECAST2025294955.29243.03449.16300.0200787510.0200787510.110.130078751FF23.292378.292201439.4499039988800.191865076714661612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-17 00:00:02FORECAST2025294953.83441.93647.88500.0102362260.0102362260.110.120236226FF21.834372.834201439.4499039988800.154273823759431612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-16 20:00:02FORECAST2025294955.4942.42248.95600.0102362260.0102362260.110.120236226FF23.49372.49201439.4499039988800.19736987448331612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-16 16:00:02FORECAST2025294954.30241.50447.90300.0102362260.0102362260.110.120236226FF22.302368.302201439.4499039988800.165771757991821612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-16 12:00:02FORECAST2025294954.37441.82848.10100.0188976480.0288976480.110.138897648FF22.374369.374201439.4499039988800.167588504018011612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-16 08:00:02FORECAST2025294951.42241.10846.26500.0188976480.0288976480.110.138897648FF19.422369.422201439.4499039988800.103478155958821612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-16 04:00:04FORECAST2025294950.77440.35245.56300.0114173290.0114173290.110.121417329FF18.774365.774201439.4499039988800.0921732822521451612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-16 00:00:02FORECAST2025294952.9741.30647.13800.0019685050.0119685050.110.121968505FF20.97368.97201439.4499039988800.134460984182591612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-15 20:00:03FORECAST2025294953.27642.56647.92100.0019685050.0119685050.110.121968505FF21.276372.276201439.4499039988800.141268800171861612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-15 16:00:02FORECAST2025294954.37441.66648.0200.0019685050.0119685050.110.121968505FF22.374374.374201439.4499039988800.167588504018011612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-15 12:00:03FORECAST2025294955.16642.09848.63200.0074803190.0674803190.110.177480319FF23.166371.166201439.4499039988800.188411358363191612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-15 08:00:02FORECAST2025294958.7341.12649.92800.0074803190.0674803190.110.177480319FF26.73376.73201439.4499039988800.300136122616451622215215DRYL
2025-07-15 04:00:04FORECAST2025294956.71440.89248.80300.007874020.017874020.110.12787402FF24.714373.714201439.4499039988800.233463180496731612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-15 00:00:02FORECAST2025294961.05242.40451.728000.010.110.12FF29.052383.052201439.4499039988800.386034512355631622215215DRYL
2025-07-14 20:00:03FORECAST2025294960.06243.39451.728000.010.110.12FF28.062379.062201439.4499039988800.348423524234061622215215DRYL
2025-07-14 16:00:02FORECAST2025294960.38643.66452.0250000.110.11FF28.386381.386201439.4499039988800.360590085926971622215215DRYL
2025-07-14 12:00:03FORECAST2025294959.7241.37850.5490000.110.11FF27.72372.72201439.4499039988800.335748226082161622215215DRYL
2025-07-14 08:00:03FORECAST2025294957.45238.82248.1370000.110.11FF25.452369.452201439.4499039988800.256879175398311622215215DRYL
2025-07-14 04:00:04FORECAST2025294956.76838.6647.7140000.110.11FF24.768366.768201439.4499039988800.235135471632521612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-14 00:00:03FORECAST2025294953.92442.36848.146000.020.110.13FF21.924387.924201439.4499039988800.156443097655651612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-13 20:00:03FORECAST2025294953.79843.748.749000.020.110.13FF21.798389.798201439.4499039988800.153411695762311612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-13 16:00:02FORECAST2025294954.96843.03449.001000.020.110.13FF22.968393.968201439.4499039988800.183061971465391612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-13 12:00:03FORECAST2025294956.4842.90849.69400.0137795350.0137795350.110.123779535FF24.48397.48201439.4499039988800.226293227515121612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-13 08:00:03FORECAST2025294956.4842.90849.69400.0153543390.0153543390.110.125354339FF24.48401.48201439.4499039988800.226293227515121612315215DRYL
2025-07-13 04:00:07FORECAST2025294954.82444.649.71200.0149606380.0149606380.110.124960638FF22.824399.824201439.4499039988800.179231510659851612315215DRYL
2025-07-13 00:00:03FORECAST2025294961.48446.18453.8340000.110.11FF29.484404.484201439.4499039988800.40281301203621622315217.5DRYL
2025-07-12 20:00:03FORECAST2025294961.8845.35653.6180000.110.11FF29.88411.88201439.4499039988800.418352957264911622315217.5DRYL
2025-07-12 16:00:02FORECAST2025294962.58245.62654.1040000.110.11FF30.582412.582201439.4499039988800.446201567851651622315217.5DRYL
2025-07-12 12:00:03FORECAST2025294964.07648.0256.0480000.110.11FF32.076430.076201439.4499039988800.506186598762231632315220DRYL
2025-07-12 08:00:03FORECAST2025294965.22848.0256.6240000.110.11FF33.228426.228201439.4499039988800.55241537374271632315220DRYL
2025-07-12 04:00:06FORECAST2025294961.26842.51251.8900.015748040.015748040.110.12574804FF29.268422.268201439.4499039988800.394399276666661622315217.5DRYL
2025-07-12 00:00:03FORECAST2025294951.96240.49646.229000.010.110.12FF19.962403.962201439.4499039988800.113639075933241612315215DRYL
2025-07-11 20:00:04FORECAST2025294951.96240.49646.229000.010.110.12FF19.962403.962201439.4499039988800.113639075933241612315215DRYL
2025-07-11 16:00:03FORECAST2025294951.2637.72444.492000.010.110.12FF19.26397.26201439.4499039988800.100562111806951612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-11 12:00:03FORECAST2025294948.27245.57246.9220000.120.12FF16.272384.272201439.4499039988800.0569818763658271612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-11 08:00:03FORECAST2025294947.73245.64446.6880000.120.12FF15.732391.732201439.4499039988800.0509928939179951612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-11 04:00:06FORECAST2025294948.39847.347.8490000.130.13FF16.398373.398201439.4499039988800.0584557774392691612215212.5DRYL