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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, July 18, 2025

[ Thursday, July 17, 2025 | Index | Today | Saturday, July 19, 2025 ]

DAY 291 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/19/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 65.33°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 45.03°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 55.18°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.586
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 33
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 217

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.11 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.11 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 198
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 438.24 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.65 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 6

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 2
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 4
D5: 2
HSdry: 14.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-07-19 04:00:03OBSERVATION2025291665.3300645.0300255.180041.48129625000.110.11FF33.33006217.33006198438.23510709316 0.649156020755440.5855574175733716 32214214DRYL
2025-07-19 00:00:01FORECAST2025291659.48645.42852.4570000.110.11FF27.486211.486198437.6332375803400.357050279142441622215215DRYL
2025-07-18 12:00:01FORECAST2025291660.72844.6952.7090000.110.11FF28.728212.728198437.6332375803400.404172464487821622215215DRYL
2025-07-18 08:00:01FORECAST2025291660.9845.19453.0870000.110.11FF28.98212.98198437.6332375803400.413930973674541622215215DRYL
2025-07-18 04:00:03FORECAST2025291661.10645.24853.1770000.110.11FF29.106213.106198437.6332375803400.418830632835371622215215DRYL
2025-07-18 00:00:03FORECAST2025291661.26844.97853.1230000.110.11FF29.268209.268198437.6332375803400.42514863619461622215215DRYL
2025-07-17 20:00:01FORECAST2025291661.55645.08653.3210000.110.11FF29.556209.556198437.6332375803400.436427226403211622215215DRYL
2025-07-17 16:00:01FORECAST2025291661.7945.12253.4560000.110.11FF29.79209.79198437.6332375803400.445629731550431622215215DRYL
2025-07-17 12:00:02FORECAST2025291662.09645.42853.7620000.110.11FF30.096210.096198437.6332375803400.457707352499171622215215DRYL
2025-07-17 08:00:02FORECAST2025291662.72645.2353.9780000.110.11FF30.726210.726198437.6332375803400.482684001754631622215215DRYL
2025-07-17 04:00:04FORECAST2025291662.20444.63653.420000.110.11FF30.204210.204198437.6332375803400.461979970643421622215215DRYL
2025-07-17 00:00:02FORECAST2025291662.6945.30253.9960000.110.11FF30.69205.69198437.6332375803400.481253994079871622215215DRYL
2025-07-16 20:00:02FORECAST2025291663.1446.02254.5810000.110.11FF31.14205.14198437.6332375803400.49914047556651632215217.5DRYL
2025-07-16 16:00:01FORECAST2025291662.40245.0553.7260000.110.11FF30.402203.402198437.6332375803400.469824156099021622215215DRYL
2025-07-16 12:00:02FORECAST2025291663.73446.38255.0580000.110.11FF31.734205.734198437.6332375803400.522747402577631632215217.5DRYL
2025-07-16 08:00:01FORECAST2025291664.00446.99455.4990000.110.11FF32.004208.004198437.6332375803400.533456460430941632215217.5DRYL
2025-07-16 04:00:03FORECAST2025291663.30246.0454.6710000.110.11FF31.302205.302198437.6332375803400.505581911232461632215217.5DRYL
2025-07-16 00:00:02FORECAST2025291664.43647.82256.1290000.110.11FF32.436203.436198437.6332375803400.550537494020181632215217.5DRYL
2025-07-15 20:00:02FORECAST2025291664.92247.76856.3450000.110.11FF32.922205.922198437.6332375803400.569640780879851632215217.5DRYL
2025-07-15 16:00:02FORECAST2025291665.15648.0256.5880000.110.11FF33.156206.156198437.6332375803400.578783672754521632215217.5DRYL
2025-07-15 12:00:02FORECAST2025291665.08447.62456.3540000.110.11FF33.084205.084198437.6332375803400.575974757270641632215217.5DRYL
2025-07-15 08:00:02FORECAST2025291665.15647.53456.3450000.110.11FF33.156205.156198437.6332375803400.578783672754521632215217.5DRYL
2025-07-15 04:00:04FORECAST2025291664.5847.22855.9040000.110.11FF32.58204.58198437.6332375803400.556212005176881632215217.5DRYL
2025-07-15 00:00:02FORECAST2025291664.92247.69656.3090000.110.11FF32.922207.922198437.6332375803400.569640780879851632215217.5DRYL
2025-07-14 20:00:02FORECAST2025291664.11247.5755.8410000.110.11FF32.112207.112198437.6332375803400.537733747043631632215217.5DRYL
2025-07-14 16:00:02FORECAST2025291664.56248.59656.5790000.110.11FF32.562207.562198437.6332375803400.555503296785741632215217.5DRYL
2025-07-14 12:00:02FORECAST2025291664.70648.86656.7860000.110.11FF32.706206.706198437.6332375803400.561167806908071632215217.5DRYL
2025-07-14 08:00:02FORECAST2025291664.29249.1956.7410000.110.11FF32.292206.292198437.6332375803400.54485262923461632215217.5DRYL
2025-07-14 04:00:04FORECAST2025291664.70649.0156.8580000.110.11FF32.706204.706198437.6332375803400.561167806908071632215217.5DRYL
2025-07-14 00:00:02FORECAST2025291665.58849.78457.6860000.110.11FF33.588218.588198437.6332375803400.59554826759481632215217.5DRYL
2025-07-13 20:00:02FORECAST2025291667.4649.8258.640000.110.11FF35.46220.46198437.6332375803400.665830228036991632215217.5DRYL
2025-07-13 16:00:02FORECAST2025291668.03650.93659.4860000.110.11FF36.036224.036198437.6332375803400.686460032240041632215135DRYL
2025-07-13 12:00:02FORECAST2025291668.88253.0660.9710000.110.11FF36.882222.882198437.6332375803400.715718392941181642215140DRYM
2025-07-13 08:00:02FORECAST2025291668.77452.55660.6650000.110.11FF36.774223.774198437.6332375803400.71205675529441642215140DRYM
2025-07-13 04:00:06FORECAST2025291668.79253.20460.9980000.110.11FF36.792223.792198437.6332375803400.712668570386311642215140DRYM
2025-07-13 00:00:02FORECAST2025291665.6650.39658.0280000.110.11FF33.66221.66198437.6332375803400.598326273386491632215217.5DRYL
2025-07-12 20:00:03FORECAST2025291667.33451.65659.4950000.110.11FF35.334225.334198437.6332375803400.661247086775061632215217.5DRYL
2025-07-12 16:00:02FORECAST2025291667.65851.60259.630000.110.11FF35.658223.658198437.6332375803400.672982426476121632215217.5DRYL
2025-07-12 12:00:03FORECAST2025291671.34850.34260.8450000.110.11FF39.348226.348198437.6332375803400.792752563019931642215140DRYM
2025-07-12 08:00:02FORECAST2025291664.86848.2956.5790000.110.11FF32.868222.868198437.6332375803400.567525383401011632215217.5DRYL
2025-07-12 04:00:06FORECAST2025291666.88446.63456.7590000.110.11FF34.884223.884198437.6332375803400.644687187028621632215217.5DRYL
2025-07-12 00:00:03FORECAST2025291667.147.31857.2090000.110.11FF35.1224.1198437.6332375803400.652672363988321632215217.5DRYL
2025-07-11 20:00:03FORECAST2025291671.56444.99658.280000.110.11FF39.564223.564198437.6332375803400.798857241117911642215140DRYM
2025-07-11 16:00:03FORECAST2025291669.83644.47457.1550000.110.11FF37.836218.836198437.6332375803400.747060277933391642215140DRYM
2025-07-11 12:00:03FORECAST2025291664.63441.25252.9430000.120.12FF32.634208.634198437.6332375803400.558337043123651632215217.5DRYL
2025-07-11 08:00:02FORECAST2025291664.99444.3354.6620000.120.12FF32.994214.994198437.6332375803400.572458194887561632215217.5DRYL
2025-07-11 04:00:05FORECAST2025291661.03443.57452.30400.0114173290.0114173290.120.131417329FF29.034201.034198437.6332375803400.416029234671041622215215DRYL
2025-07-11 00:00:03FORECAST2025291661.57450.43256.0030000.050.05FF29.574215.574198437.6332375803400.437133956444611622215215DRYL
2025-07-10 20:00:03FORECAST2025291661.59250.61256.1020000.060.06FF29.592217.592198437.6332375803400.437840887132561622215215DRYL
2025-07-10 16:00:02FORECAST2025291662.22249.85656.0390000.060.06FF30.222219.222198437.6332375803400.462692513913861622215215DRYL
2025-07-10 12:00:03FORECAST2025291651.51242.9847.2460000.050.05FF19.512209.512198437.6332375803400.122728886272591612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-10 08:00:03FORECAST2025291651.51242.9847.2460000.050.05FF19.512207.512198437.6332375803400.122728886272591612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-10 04:00:05FORECAST2025291653.25843.64648.4520000.050.05FF21.258207.258198437.6332375803400.161758052625841612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-10 00:00:03FORECAST2025291666.45244.70855.580000.040.04FF34.452226.452198437.6332375803400.628528062945291632215217.5DRYL
2025-07-09 20:00:03FORECAST2025291666.45244.70855.580000.060.06FF34.452228.452198437.6332375803400.628528062945291632215217.5DRYL
2025-07-09 16:00:03FORECAST2025291667.7346.99457.3620000.070.07FF35.73228.73198437.6332375803400.675567738528931632215217.5DRYL
2025-07-09 12:00:03FORECAST2025291672.35647.28259.8190000.070.07FF40.356240.356198437.6332375803400.820303760759531642215140DRYM
2025-07-09 08:00:03FORECAST2025291672.35647.28259.8190000.070.07FF40.356239.356198437.6332375803400.820303760759531642215140DRYM
2025-07-09 04:00:05FORECAST2025291668.97239.77654.3740000.080.08FF36.972230.972198437.6332375803400.718752672430981642215140DRYM
2025-07-09 00:00:03FORECAST2025291653.22240.96447.0930000.090.09FF21.222197.222198437.6332375803400.160879683463471612115210DRYL
2025-07-08 20:00:03FORECAST2025291651.8938.33645.1130000.080.08FF19.89199.89198437.6332375803400.130563256573911612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-08 16:00:03FORECAST2025291651.02634.48442.755000.010.10.11FF19.026192.026198437.6332375803400.113147512878121612115210DRYL
2025-07-08 12:00:03FORECAST2025291657.79449.94653.870000.120.12FF25.794219.794198437.6332375803400.296323176528561622215215DRYL
2025-07-08 08:00:04FORECAST2025291657.79449.94653.870000.130.13FF25.794217.794198437.6332375803400.296323176528561622215215DRYL
2025-07-08 04:00:04FORECAST2025291656.26455.4955.8770000.120.12FF24.264216.264198437.6332375803400.245877137968611612215212.5DRYL