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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, July 17, 2025

[ Wednesday, July 16, 2025 | Index | Today | Friday, July 18, 2025 ]

DAY 290 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/18/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 69.81°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 52.19°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 61.00°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.736
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 38
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 152

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.11 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.11 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 197
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 437.69 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.72 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 5

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 2
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 4
D5: 1
HSdry: 28.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-07-18 04:00:03OBSERVATION2025290569.8100852.1900661.000071.6453379166667000.110.11FF37.81008151.81008197437.69399253626 0.720154521817130.736194654217316 42114128DRYL
2025-07-18 00:00:02FORECAST2025290565.89447.22856.5610000.110.11FF33.894147.894197437.0230652900300.598755752477411632115215DRYL
2025-07-17 12:00:02FORECAST2025290565.8447.17456.5070000.110.11FF33.84147.84197437.0230652900300.596720304673061632115215DRYL
2025-07-17 08:00:01FORECAST2025290566.48846.97656.7320000.110.11FF34.488148.488197437.0230652900300.620957598508631632115215DRYL
2025-07-17 04:00:03FORECAST2025290566.1146.0456.0750000.110.11FF34.11148.11197437.0230652900300.606870258630271632115215DRYL
2025-07-17 00:00:01FORECAST2025290566.68645.62656.1560000.110.11FF34.686142.686197437.0230652900300.628274386213781632115215DRYL
2025-07-16 20:00:02FORECAST2025290566.86648.61457.740000.110.11FF34.866141.866197437.0230652900300.634886133381741632115215DRYL
2025-07-16 16:00:01FORECAST2025290566.34448.03857.1910000.110.11FF34.344141.344197437.0230652900300.615608782577461632115215DRYL
2025-07-16 12:00:02FORECAST2025290566.63248.14657.3890000.110.11FF34.632141.632197437.0230652900300.626283361405021632115215DRYL
2025-07-16 08:00:01FORECAST2025290566.70448.257.4520000.110.11FF34.704143.704197437.0230652900300.628937302722291632115215DRYL
2025-07-16 04:00:03FORECAST2025290566.25448.00257.1280000.110.11FF34.254142.254197437.0230652900300.612254490395011632115215DRYL
2025-07-16 00:00:01FORECAST2025290566.97447.76857.3710000.110.11FF34.974138.974197437.0230652900300.63883417170661632115215DRYL
2025-07-15 20:00:02FORECAST2025290566.95647.6657.3080000.110.11FF34.956140.956197437.0230652900300.638177177708711632115215DRYL
2025-07-15 16:00:01FORECAST2025290566.90247.28257.0920000.110.11FF34.902140.902197437.0230652900300.636203758890971632115215DRYL
2025-07-15 12:00:02FORECAST2025290566.21846.70656.4620000.110.11FF34.218140.218197437.0230652900300.610910409429141632115215DRYL
2025-07-15 08:00:01FORECAST2025290566.63246.59856.6150000.110.11FF34.632139.632197437.0230652900300.626283361405021632115215DRYL
2025-07-15 04:00:04FORECAST2025290566.3846.90456.6420000.110.11FF34.38140.38197437.0230652900300.616948095704821632115215DRYL
2025-07-15 00:00:02FORECAST2025290567.24446.81457.0290000.110.11FF35.244143.244197437.0230652900300.648639012803151632115215DRYL
2025-07-14 20:00:02FORECAST2025290566.61446.81456.7140000.110.11FF34.614142.614197437.0230652900300.625618934120041632115215DRYL
2025-07-14 16:00:02FORECAST2025290567.06447.53457.2990000.110.11FF35.064143.064197437.0230652900300.642112970331031632115215DRYL
2025-07-14 12:00:02FORECAST2025290566.72248.68657.7040000.110.11FF34.722141.722197437.0230652900300.629599836985891632115215DRYL
2025-07-14 08:00:02FORECAST2025290566.21849.22657.7220000.110.11FF34.218142.218197437.0230652900300.610910409429141632115215DRYL
2025-07-14 04:00:04FORECAST2025290567.44250.5458.9910000.110.11FF35.442140.442197437.0230652900300.655767343911591632115215DRYL
2025-07-14 00:00:02FORECAST2025290566.97450.39658.6850000.110.11FF34.974152.974197437.0230652900300.63883417170661632115215DRYL
2025-07-13 20:00:02FORECAST2025290567.69450.959.2970000.110.11FF35.694152.694197437.0230652900300.664760097695061632115215DRYL
2025-07-13 16:00:02FORECAST2025290569.92652.17861.0520000.110.11FF37.926155.926197437.0230652900300.739872470221951642115135DRYL
2025-07-13 12:00:02FORECAST2025290570.48452.761.5920000.110.11FF38.484154.484197437.0230652900300.757199715898831642115135DRYL
2025-07-13 08:00:02FORECAST2025290570.59252.68261.6370000.110.11FF38.592154.592197437.0230652900300.760479838545711642115135DRYL
2025-07-13 04:00:06FORECAST2025290570.26853.76262.0150000.110.11FF38.268155.268197437.0230652900300.750567296628551642115135DRYL
2025-07-13 00:00:02FORECAST2025290570.35854.53662.4470000.110.11FF38.358156.358197437.0230652900300.753342432714051642115135DRYL
2025-07-12 20:00:02FORECAST2025290569.72853.72661.7270000.110.11FF37.728157.728197437.0230652900300.73357456700451642115135DRYL
2025-07-12 16:00:02FORECAST2025290570.12452.23261.1780000.110.11FF38.124156.124197437.0230652900300.746092843951281642115135DRYL
2025-07-12 12:00:03FORECAST2025290569.63852.53861.0880000.110.11FF37.638154.638197437.0230652900300.730686629844821642115135DRYL
2025-07-12 08:00:02FORECAST2025290570.30452.84461.5740000.110.11FF38.304158.304197437.0230652900300.751679335428431642115135DRYL
2025-07-12 04:00:05FORECAST2025290567.80252.01659.9090000.110.11FF35.802156.802197437.0230652900300.66858580354441632115215DRYL
2025-07-12 00:00:03FORECAST2025290568.28850.959.5940000.110.11FF36.288157.288197437.0230652900300.685580090668841632115130DRYL
2025-07-11 20:00:03FORECAST2025290563.55450.21656.8850000.110.11FF31.554151.554197437.0230652900300.508840033193791632115215DRYL
2025-07-11 16:00:03FORECAST2025290563.2349.71256.4710000.110.11FF31.23149.23197437.0230652900300.496248325587211622115212.5DRYL
2025-07-11 12:00:03FORECAST2025290559.66645.96852.8170000.120.12FF27.666143.666197437.0230652900300.360689353969731622115212.5DRYL
2025-07-11 08:00:02FORECAST2025290565.49848.9257.2090000.120.12FF33.498150.498197437.0230652900300.583770419825571632115215DRYL
2025-07-11 04:00:05FORECAST2025290561.23247.91254.5720000.120.12FF29.232140.232197437.0230652900300.41915598814271622115212.5DRYL
2025-07-11 00:00:02FORECAST2025290568.05453.38460.7190000.050.05FF36.054154.054197437.0230652900300.677443814828341632115130DRYL
2025-07-10 20:00:03FORECAST2025290568.12653.47460.80000.060.06FF36.126156.126197437.0230652900300.679956578552011632115130DRYL
2025-07-10 16:00:02FORECAST2025290567.5554.06860.8090000.060.06FF35.55156.55197437.0230652900300.65963253207531632115215DRYL
2025-07-10 12:00:03FORECAST2025290567.15452.89860.0260000.050.05FF35.154158.154197437.0230652900300.645381322974571632115215DRYL
2025-07-10 08:00:03FORECAST2025290567.02850.28858.6580000.050.05FF35.028156.028197437.0230652900300.640802692178081632115215DRYL
2025-07-10 04:00:04FORECAST2025290568.34249.0158.6760000.050.05FF36.342154.342197437.0230652900300.68744515791831632115130DRYL
2025-07-10 00:00:02FORECAST2025290569.04451.13460.0890000.040.04FF37.044160.044197437.0230652900300.711241851769091642115135DRYL
2025-07-09 20:00:03FORECAST2025290569.04454.06861.5560000.060.06FF37.044162.044197437.0230652900300.711241851769091642115135DRYL
2025-07-09 16:00:02FORECAST2025290570.44854.84262.6450000.070.07FF38.448161.448197437.0230652900300.756100972144361642115135DRYL
2025-07-09 12:00:03FORECAST2025290575.57856.85866.2180000.070.07FF43.578167.578197437.0230652900300.883746233867421652115140DRYM
2025-07-09 08:00:03FORECAST2025290575.57856.85866.2180000.070.07FF43.578166.578197437.0230652900300.883746233867421652115140DRYM
2025-07-09 04:00:05FORECAST2025290572.66254.53663.5990000.080.08FF40.662161.662197437.0230652900300.818478655497721642115135DRYL
2025-07-09 00:00:03FORECAST2025290568.55850.64859.6030000.090.09FF36.558143.558197437.0230652900300.694857196419731632115130DRYL
2025-07-08 20:00:03FORECAST2025290568.25250.32459.2880000.080.08FF36.252148.252197437.0230652900300.684334073990611632115130DRYL
2025-07-08 16:00:02FORECAST2025290565.04849.49657.27200.0055118140.0055118140.10.105511814FF33.048141.048197437.0230652900300.566593803669691632115215DRYL
2025-07-08 12:00:03FORECAST2025290574.87653.09663.9860000.120.12FF42.876161.876197437.0230652900300.869800619676661652115140DRYM
2025-07-08 08:00:04FORECAST2025290574.87651.94463.410000.130.13FF42.876159.876197437.0230652900300.869800619676661652115140DRYM
2025-07-08 04:00:04FORECAST2025290575.54253.56464.5530000.120.12FF43.542159.542197437.0230652900300.883057841088341652115140DRYM
2025-07-08 00:00:04FORECAST2025290554.51849.13651.8270000.110.11FF22.518129.518197437.0230652900300.195384859885621612115210DRYL
2025-07-07 20:00:03FORECAST2025290554.51848.90251.710000.10.1FF22.518129.518197437.0230652900300.195384859885621612115210DRYL
2025-07-07 16:00:03FORECAST2025290551.40445.3248.3620000.130.13FF19.404121.404197437.0230652900300.12265091579361612115210DRYL
2025-07-07 12:00:04FORECAST2025290555.79649.96452.880000.130.13FF23.796131.796197437.0230652900300.231573237989181612115210DRYL
2025-07-07 11:20:58FORECAST2025290555.79649.96452.880000.130.13FF23.796131.796197437.0230652900300.231573237989181612115210DRYL
2025-07-07 08:00:03FORECAST2025290555.79649.96452.880000.080.08FF23.796129.796197437.0230652900300.231573237989181612115210DRYL
2025-07-07 04:00:04FORECAST2025290550.48648.66849.577NAN000.090.09FF18.486117.486197NANNAN0.105394881787111612115210DRYL