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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, July 16, 2025

[ Tuesday, July 15, 2025 | Index | Today | Thursday, July 17, 2025 ]

DAY 289 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/17/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 73.11°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 52.98°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 63.05°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.844
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 41
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 82

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.11 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.11 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 196
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 437.07 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.70 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 4

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 2
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 4
D5: 1
HSdry: 28.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-07-17 04:00:03OBSERVATION2025289473.1100252.9800863.045051.6026870833333000.110.11FF41.1100282.11002196437.06662891738 0.700481040721930.844236844836916 42114128DRYL
2025-07-17 00:00:01FORECAST2025289466.7446.65256.6960000.110.11FF34.7475.74196436.41056993400.649567189798481632115215DRYL
2025-07-16 12:00:02FORECAST2025289466.48846.52656.5070000.110.11FF34.48875.488196436.41056993400.640322015633951632115215DRYL
2025-07-16 08:00:01FORECAST2025289467.51446.38256.9480000.110.11FF35.51476.514196436.41056993400.677394265391911632115215DRYL
2025-07-16 04:00:03FORECAST2025289467.4646.18456.8220000.110.11FF35.4676.46196436.41056993400.675482513283531632115215DRYL
2025-07-16 00:00:01FORECAST2025289468.946.43657.6680000.110.11FF36.971.9196436.41056993400.7247500558941642115135DRYL
2025-07-15 20:00:02FORECAST2025289469.0847.7558.4150000.110.11FF37.0874.08196436.41056993400.730640269108941642115135DRYL
2025-07-15 16:00:01FORECAST2025289469.18848.03858.6130000.110.11FF37.18874.188196436.41056993400.734143843904341642115135DRYL
2025-07-15 12:00:02FORECAST2025289469.2648.30858.7840000.110.11FF37.2674.26196436.41056993400.73646667859411642115135DRYL
2025-07-15 08:00:01FORECAST2025289469.24248.3858.8110000.110.11FF37.24273.242196436.41056993400.735886941055611642115135DRYL
2025-07-15 04:00:03FORECAST2025289469.13448.27258.7030000.110.11FF37.13474.134196436.41056993400.732394943180361642115135DRYL
2025-07-15 00:00:01FORECAST2025289470.05248.84859.450000.110.11FF38.05276.052196436.41056993400.761317735513251642115135DRYL
2025-07-14 20:00:02FORECAST2025289469.76449.15459.4590000.110.11FF37.76475.764196436.41056993400.752431886894741642115135DRYL
2025-07-14 16:00:01FORECAST2025289469.69249.71259.7020000.110.11FF37.69275.692196436.41056993400.750183170624461642115135DRYL
2025-07-14 12:00:02FORECAST2025289469.47650.12659.8010000.110.11FF37.47675.476196436.41056993400.743372580382921642115135DRYL
2025-07-14 08:00:02FORECAST2025289469.42251.0860.2510000.110.11FF37.42276.422196436.41056993400.741654970843621642115135DRYL
2025-07-14 04:00:03FORECAST2025289469.15250.75659.9540000.110.11FF37.15273.152196436.41056993400.732978553072811642115135DRYL
2025-07-14 00:00:02FORECAST2025289468.95450.82859.8910000.110.11FF36.95485.954196436.41056993400.726523750684781642115135DRYL
2025-07-13 20:00:02FORECAST2025289469.15250.68459.9180000.110.11FF37.15285.152196436.41056993400.732978553072811642115135DRYL
2025-07-13 16:00:01FORECAST2025289469.72850.57660.1520000.110.11FF37.72885.728196436.41056993400.751308880342831642115135DRYL
2025-07-13 12:00:02FORECAST2025289469.42250.0959.7560000.110.11FF37.42284.422196436.41056993400.741654970843621642115135DRYL
2025-07-13 08:00:02FORECAST2025289469.42250.05459.7380000.110.11FF37.42284.422196436.41056993400.741654970843621642115135DRYL
2025-07-13 04:00:06FORECAST2025289469.7150.57660.1430000.110.11FF37.7184.71196436.41056993400.75074636290321642115135DRYL
2025-07-13 00:00:02FORECAST2025289471.38451.7161.5470000.110.11FF39.38486.384196436.41056993400.800062167794291642115135DRYL
2025-07-12 20:00:02FORECAST2025289471.13251.4461.2860000.110.11FF39.13288.132196436.41056993400.793036250162391642115135DRYL
2025-07-12 16:00:02FORECAST2025289470.14250.16260.1520000.110.11FF38.14286.142196436.41056993400.764058400269911642115135DRYL
2025-07-12 12:00:02FORECAST2025289470.44850.16260.3050000.110.11FF38.44885.448196436.41056993400.773245864388991642115135DRYL
2025-07-12 08:00:02FORECAST2025289470.26850.66660.4670000.110.11FF38.26888.268196436.41056993400.767866066409421642115135DRYL
2025-07-12 04:00:05FORECAST2025289469.15250.19859.6750000.110.11FF37.15289.152196436.41056993400.732978553072811642115135DRYL
2025-07-12 00:00:02FORECAST2025289468.50449.496590000.110.11FF36.50488.504196436.41056993400.71157283731031642115135DRYL
2025-07-11 20:00:03FORECAST2025289468.84651.18860.0170000.110.11FF36.84687.846196436.41056993400.722970723655191642115135DRYL
2025-07-11 16:00:02FORECAST2025289468.86451.81860.3410000.110.11FF36.86485.864196436.41056993400.723564458787651642115135DRYL
2025-07-11 12:00:02FORECAST2025289468.9949.7359.36000.010.110.12FF36.9983.99196436.41056993400.727703066109341642115135DRYL
2025-07-11 08:00:02FORECAST2025289469.3145059.657000.010.110.12FF37.31485.314196436.41056993400.738201991371991642115135DRYL
2025-07-11 04:00:05FORECAST2025289468.91850.79259.855000.010.110.12FF36.91878.918196436.41056993400.725341915466371642115135DRYL
2025-07-11 00:00:02FORECAST2025289469.851.09860.4490000.050.05FF37.885.8196436.41056993400.753552182713951642115135DRYL
2025-07-10 20:00:03FORECAST2025289469.81851.24260.53000.010.050.06FF37.81887.818196436.41056993400.754111311757951642115135DRYL
2025-07-10 16:00:02FORECAST2025289469.85451.90860.881000.010.050.06FF37.85488.854196436.41056993400.755227527480321642115135DRYL
2025-07-10 12:00:03FORECAST2025289469.76451.56660.6650000.050.05FF37.76490.764196436.41056993400.752431886894741642115135DRYL
2025-07-10 08:00:03FORECAST2025289469.5351.99860.7640000.050.05FF37.5388.53196436.41056993400.745084232408731642115135DRYL
2025-07-10 04:00:04FORECAST2025289468.1851.76459.9720000.050.05FF36.1886.18196436.41056993400.700575330755271642115135DRYL
2025-07-10 00:00:02FORECAST2025289472.33853.9663.1490000.040.04FF40.33891.338196436.41056993400.825336977915371642115135DRYL
2025-07-09 20:00:02FORECAST2025289474.0354.3264.1750000.060.06FF42.0393.03196436.41056993400.864934812733691652115140DRYM
2025-07-09 16:00:02FORECAST2025289474.58854.2364.4090000.070.07FF42.58890.588196436.41056993400.876529339170041652115140DRYM
2025-07-09 12:00:03FORECAST2025289474.69655.18464.940000.070.07FF42.69691.696196436.41056993400.878690646873511652115140DRYM
2025-07-09 08:00:02FORECAST2025289475.09255.27465.1830000.070.07FF43.09291.092196436.41056993400.886388033474431652115140DRYM
2025-07-09 04:00:04FORECAST2025289474.98454.5964.7870000.080.08FF42.98488.984196436.41056993400.884324033542371652115140DRYM
2025-07-09 00:00:03FORECAST2025289469.6251.6260.620000.090.09FF37.6274.62196436.41056993400.747923672384261642115135DRYL
2025-07-08 20:00:02FORECAST2025289469.69250.61260.1520000.080.08FF37.69279.692196436.41056993400.750183170624461642115135DRYL
2025-07-08 16:00:02FORECAST2025289468.6350.14459.3870000.10.1FF36.6375.63196436.41056993400.715797676330491642115135DRYL
2025-07-08 12:00:03FORECAST2025289473.23853.85263.5450000.120.12FF41.23887.238196436.41056993400.847234834012341642115135DRYL
2025-07-08 08:00:03FORECAST2025289471.49251.83661.6640000.130.13FF39.49285.492196436.41056993400.803028928042981642115135DRYL
2025-07-08 04:00:04FORECAST2025289471.49251.8961.6910000.120.12FF39.49284.492196436.41056993400.803028928042981642115135DRYL
2025-07-08 00:00:03FORECAST2025289470.35852.62861.4930000.110.11FF38.35875.358196436.41056993400.770564787393391642115135DRYL
2025-07-07 20:00:03FORECAST2025289469.76453.04261.4030000.10.1FF37.76474.764196436.41056993400.752431886894741642115135DRYL
2025-07-07 16:00:02FORECAST2025289468.39651.42259.9090000.130.13FF36.39670.396196436.41056993400.707928175862041642115135DRYL
2025-07-07 12:00:04FORECAST2025289472.1450.37861.2590000.130.13FF40.1476.14196436.41056993400.820264931779641642115135DRYL
2025-07-07 11:20:58FORECAST2025289472.1450.37861.2590000.130.13FF40.1476.14196436.41056993400.820264931779641642115135DRYL
2025-07-07 08:00:03FORECAST2025289469.40451.9860.6920000.080.08FF37.40474.404196436.41056993400.741081115253341642115135DRYL
2025-07-07 04:00:04FORECAST2025289468.70250.97259.837NAN000.090.09FF36.70266.702196NANNAN0.718198525248611642115135DRYL
2025-07-07 00:00:04FORECAST2025289457.95649.24453.60000.10.1FF25.956126.956196436.41056993400.315105030519541622115212.5DRYL
2025-07-06 20:00:04FORECAST2025289457.95649.24453.60000.10.1FF25.956126.956196436.41056993400.315105030519541622115212.5DRYL
2025-07-06 16:00:03FORECAST2025289459.12648.72253.9240000.110.11FF27.126124.126196436.41056993400.357131936121631622115212.5DRYL
2025-07-06 12:00:03FORECAST2025289450.19843.41246.805000.010.10.11FF18.198109.198196436.41056993400.106319497637121612115210DRYL
2025-07-06 08:00:03FORECAST2025289450.19843.41246.805000.020.10.12FF18.198106.198196436.41056993400.106319497637121612115210DRYL
2025-07-06 04:00:05FORECAST2025289442.8941.93642.413NAN000.090.09FF10.89104.89196NANNAN0.0244833613618931612115210DRYL