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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, July 15, 2025

[ Monday, July 14, 2025 | Index | Today | Wednesday, July 16, 2025 ]

DAY 288 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/16/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 71.61°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 46.67°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 59.14°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.822
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 40
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 9

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.32 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.32 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 195
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 436.43 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.67 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 3

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 2
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 4
D5: 1
HSdry: 28.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-07-16 04:00:03OBSERVATION2025288371.6100846.6759.140041.5321491666667000.320.32FF39.610088.61008195436.42537119648 0.668668768790880.8220269461374916 42114128DRYL
2025-07-16 00:00:01FORECAST2025288365.53444.11454.8240000.320.32FF33.5342.534195435.7957426677800.619409074456221632115215DRYL
2025-07-15 12:00:02FORECAST2025288367.92842.42255.1750000.320.32FF35.9284.928195435.7957426677800.708104837239761642115217.5DRYL
2025-07-15 08:00:01FORECAST2025288367.44241.55854.50000.320.32FF35.4424.442195435.7957426677800.69087635597061632115215DRYL
2025-07-15 04:00:03FORECAST2025288367.67641.8154.7430000.320.32FF35.6764.676195435.7957426677800.69922717982081642115217.5DRYL
2025-07-15 00:00:01FORECAST2025288368.7242.5355.6250000.320.32FF36.725.72195435.7957426677800.735181515472611642115135DRYL
2025-07-14 20:00:02FORECAST2025288368.37843.32255.850000.320.32FF36.3786.378195435.7957426677800.723647099460871642115135DRYL
2025-07-14 16:00:01FORECAST2025288368.21644.8756.5430000.320.32FF36.2166.216195435.7957426677800.718098809003121642115135DRYL
2025-07-14 12:00:02FORECAST2025288367.56845.6856.6240000.320.32FF35.5685.568195435.7957426677800.695385571836351632115215DRYL
2025-07-14 08:00:01FORECAST2025288367.60447.06657.3350000.320.32FF35.6046.604195435.7957426677800.696668530418771632115215DRYL
2025-07-14 04:00:03FORECAST2025288367.15446.70656.930000.320.32FF35.1544.154195435.7957426677800.680461904992891632115215DRYL
2025-07-14 00:00:02FORECAST2025288366.7446.56256.6510000.320.32FF34.7416.74195435.7957426677800.665240335026451632115215DRYL
2025-07-13 20:00:02FORECAST2025288367.146.74256.9210000.320.32FF35.116.1195435.7957426677800.678492929994991632115215DRYL
2025-07-13 16:00:01FORECAST2025288367.2846.83257.0560000.320.32FF35.2816.28195435.7957426677800.685036382288491632115215DRYL
2025-07-13 12:00:02FORECAST2025288366.61446.14856.3810000.320.32FF34.61414.614195435.7957426677800.660551808433141632115215DRYL
2025-07-13 08:00:02FORECAST2025288366.86645.75256.3090000.320.32FF34.86614.866195435.7957426677800.669903258429671632115215DRYL
2025-07-13 04:00:05FORECAST2025288367.44246.9457.1910000.320.32FF35.44215.442195435.7957426677800.69087635597061632115215DRYL
2025-07-13 00:00:02FORECAST2025288368.2748.03858.1540000.320.32FF36.2715.27195435.7957426677800.719954183951821642115135DRYL
2025-07-12 20:00:02FORECAST2025288368.4548.25458.3520000.320.32FF36.4517.45195435.7957426677800.726095715598721642115135DRYL
2025-07-12 16:00:01FORECAST2025288367.13646.59856.8670000.320.32FF35.13616.136195435.7957426677800.679806141076321632115215DRYL
2025-07-12 12:00:02FORECAST2025288366.245.53655.8680000.320.32FF34.215.2195435.7957426677800.644974342087231632115215DRYL
2025-07-12 08:00:02FORECAST2025288366.18245.80655.9940000.320.32FF34.18218.182195435.7957426677800.64429130523891632115215DRYL
2025-07-12 04:00:05FORECAST2025288366.32646.47256.3990000.320.32FF34.32620.326195435.7957426677800.64974246022561632115215DRYL
2025-07-12 00:00:02FORECAST2025288366.23647.28256.7590000.320.32FF34.23620.236195435.7957426677800.646339017784591632115215DRYL
2025-07-11 20:00:03FORECAST2025288366.52448.63257.5780000.320.32FF34.52418.524195435.7957426677800.657187536735451632115215DRYL
2025-07-11 16:00:02FORECAST2025288366.79448.54257.6680000.320.32FF34.79416.794195435.7957426677800.667241902462531632115215DRYL
2025-07-11 12:00:02FORECAST2025288365.58846.7656.174000.010.320.33FF33.58814.588195435.7957426677800.62150321133221632115215DRYL
2025-07-11 08:00:02FORECAST2025288365.87646.02255.949000.010.320.33FF33.87615.876195435.7957426677800.632610415939361632115215DRYL
2025-07-11 04:00:04FORECAST2025288365.78647.1256.453000.010.320.33FF33.7869.786195435.7957426677800.629150814638391632115215DRYL
2025-07-11 00:00:02FORECAST2025288365.6649.83857.7490000.260.26FF33.6615.66195435.7957426677800.624289844749461632115215DRYL
2025-07-10 20:00:02FORECAST2025288365.6649.87457.767000.010.260.27FF33.6617.66195435.7957426677800.624289844749461632115215DRYL
2025-07-10 16:00:02FORECAST2025288366.21850.16258.19000.010.260.27FF34.21819.218195435.7957426677800.645656913593821632115215DRYL
2025-07-10 12:00:03FORECAST2025288366.5651.33258.9460000.260.26FF34.5620.56195435.7957426677800.658534759130181632115215DRYL
2025-07-10 08:00:02FORECAST2025288367.44251.78259.6120000.260.26FF35.44219.442195435.7957426677800.69087635597061632115215DRYL
2025-07-10 04:00:04FORECAST2025288367.1950.86459.0270000.260.26FF35.1918.19195435.7957426677800.681771740983841632115215DRYL
2025-07-10 00:00:02FORECAST2025288371.18652.98862.0870000.250.25FF39.18619.186195435.7957426677800.810539530877291642115135DRYL
2025-07-09 20:00:02FORECAST2025288371.20453.36662.2850000.270.27FF39.20419.204195435.7957426677800.811036175438441642115135DRYL
2025-07-09 16:00:02FORECAST2025288370.17853.27661.7270000.280.28FF38.17816.178195435.7957426677800.781463072718931642115135DRYL
2025-07-09 12:00:03FORECAST2025288369.85452.30461.0790000.280.28FF37.85416.854195435.7957426677800.771598999464851642115135DRYL
2025-07-09 08:00:02FORECAST2025288369.87251.94460.9080000.280.28FF37.87215.872195435.7957426677800.772153473510291642115135DRYL
2025-07-09 04:00:04FORECAST2025288369.85450.95460.4040000.290.29FF37.85413.854195435.7957426677800.771598999464851642115135DRYL
2025-07-09 00:00:03FORECAST2025288368.949.40659.1530000.30.3FF36.94.9195435.7957426677800.741152541179211642115135DRYL
2025-07-08 20:00:02FORECAST2025288369.45849.04659.2520000.290.29FF37.45810.458195435.7957426677800.759210810279751642115135DRYL
2025-07-08 16:00:02FORECAST2025288369.76449.62259.6930000.310.31FF37.7646.764195435.7957426677800.768815304627281642115135DRYL
2025-07-08 12:00:02FORECAST2025288370.77250.6360.7010000.330.33FF38.77213.772195435.7957426677800.798896553394431642115135DRYL
2025-07-08 08:00:03FORECAST2025288369.51248.488590000.340.34FF37.51213.512195435.7957426677800.760921315401891642115135DRYL
2025-07-08 04:00:04FORECAST2025288369.58448.2958.9370000.330.33FF37.58412.584195435.7957426677800.763191635824581642115135DRYL
2025-07-08 00:00:03FORECAST2025288370.37649.89260.1340000.320.32FF38.3765.376195435.7957426677800.787368584894781642115135DRYL
2025-07-07 20:00:03FORECAST2025288370.17850.3660.2690000.310.31FF38.1785.178195435.7957426677800.781463072718931642115135DRYL
2025-07-07 16:00:02FORECAST2025288370.19650.52260.3590000.340.34FF38.1962.196195435.7957426677800.782003801666391642115135DRYL
2025-07-07 12:00:03FORECAST2025288368.37848.90258.64000.010.330.34FF36.3784.378195435.7957426677800.723647099460871642115135DRYL
2025-07-07 11:20:57FORECAST2025288368.37848.90258.64000.010.330.34FF36.3784.378195435.7957426677800.723647099460871642115135DRYL
2025-07-07 08:00:03FORECAST2025288370.68250.1860.431000.010.070.08FF38.6824.682195435.7957426677800.796309941851011642115135DRYL
2025-07-07 04:00:04FORECAST2025288369.36848.34458.856NAN00.020.070.09FF37.368-1.632195NANNAN0.756345255024461642115135DRYL
2025-07-07 00:00:04FORECAST2025288373.68853.13263.410000.10.1FF41.68868.688195435.7957426677800.87181434361641652115140DRYM
2025-07-06 20:00:03FORECAST2025288373.68853.13263.410000.10.1FF41.68868.688195435.7957426677800.87181434361641652115140DRYM
2025-07-06 16:00:03FORECAST2025288373.86855.464.6340000.110.11FF41.86864.868195435.7957426677800.875620961171221652115140DRYM
2025-07-06 12:00:02FORECAST2025288366.77646.52656.651000.010.10.11FF34.77658.776195435.7957426677800.666575238900561632115215DRYL
2025-07-06 08:00:03FORECAST2025288366.05646.52656.291000.020.10.12FF34.05656.056195435.7957426677800.639497184494341632115215DRYL
2025-07-06 04:00:05FORECAST2025288366.12844.22255.175NAN000.090.09FF34.12862.128195NANNAN0.642239422451541632115215DRYL
2025-07-06 00:00:04FORECAST2025288351.8942.33247.1110000.050.05FF19.89103.89195435.7957426677800.138637112599061612115210DRYL
2025-07-05 20:00:03FORECAST2025288351.8943.80847.8490000.050.05FF19.89112.89195435.7957426677800.138637112599061612115210DRYL
2025-07-05 16:00:03FORECAST2025288344.5138.0341.27000.030.070.1FF12.51101.51195435.7957426677800.0328564565453541612115210DRYL
2025-07-05 12:00:03FORECAST2025288341.937.439.65000.070.060.13FF9.9106.9195435.7957426677800.0175284958895441612115210DRYL
2025-07-05 08:00:03FORECAST2025288341.937.439.65000.070.060.13FF9.9110.9195435.7957426677800.0175284958895441612115210DRYL
2025-07-05 04:00:05FORECAST2025288343.48442.04442.764NAN00.030.090.12FF11.484108.484195NANNAN0.0258621822816811612115210DRYL