MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, July 14, 2025

[ Sunday, July 13, 2025 | Index | Today | Tuesday, July 15, 2025 ]

DAY 287 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/15/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 61.55°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 49.11°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 55.33°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.494
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 30
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -63

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.42 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.42 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 194
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 435.66 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.51 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 2

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 2
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 4
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-07-15 04:00:03OBSERVATION2025287261.5500649.1100855.330071.1679766666667000.420.42FF29.55006-63.44994194435.66059852221 0.508841413659980.4942838662566516 22114210DRYL
2025-07-15 00:00:01FORECAST2025287262.13246.95854.5450000.420.42FF30.132-62.868194435.1785746132700.516922167631331632115215DRYL
2025-07-14 12:00:02FORECAST2025287263.21247.33655.2740000.420.42FF31.212-61.788194435.1785746132700.558736756014091632115215DRYL
2025-07-14 08:00:01FORECAST2025287263.55449.35256.4530000.420.42FF31.554-61.446194435.1785746132700.571864842711841632115215DRYL
2025-07-14 04:00:03FORECAST2025287262.2448.81255.5260000.420.42FF30.24-62.76194435.1785746132700.521119704504491632115215DRYL
2025-07-14 00:00:01FORECAST2025287263.35648.8356.0930000.420.42FF31.356-49.644194435.1785746132700.564273101882841632115215DRYL
2025-07-13 20:00:02FORECAST2025287262.99648.93855.9670000.420.42FF30.996-51.004194435.1785746132700.550411008091511632115215DRYL
2025-07-13 16:00:01FORECAST2025287262.56448.90255.7330000.420.42FF30.564-51.436194435.1785746132700.533696413756651632115215DRYL
2025-07-13 12:00:02FORECAST2025287262.45648.27255.3640000.420.42FF30.456-51.544194435.1785746132700.529507290976621632115215DRYL
2025-07-13 08:00:01FORECAST2025287262.25847.7555.0040000.420.42FF30.258-51.742194435.1785746132700.521819078911471632115215DRYL
2025-07-13 04:00:05FORECAST2025287261.89848.88455.3910000.420.42FF29.898-52.102194435.1785746132700.507821687855571632115215DRYL
2025-07-13 00:00:01FORECAST2025287262.54650.16256.3540000.420.42FF30.546-53.454194435.1785746132700.532998473182211632115215DRYL
2025-07-12 20:00:02FORECAST2025287262.67250.39656.5340000.420.42FF30.672-51.328194435.1785746132700.537881806740331632115215DRYL
2025-07-12 16:00:01FORECAST2025287262.74448.50655.6250000.420.42FF30.744-51.256194435.1785746132700.540669769108641632115215DRYL
2025-07-12 12:00:02FORECAST2025287263.26648.45255.85900.0023622060.0023622060.420.422362206FF31.266-50.734194435.1785746132700.560814290851971632115215DRYL
2025-07-12 08:00:02FORECAST2025287263.84249.53256.68700.0023622060.0023622060.420.422362206FF31.842-48.158194435.1785746132700.582859325694841632115215DRYL
2025-07-12 04:00:05FORECAST2025287265.22850.70257.9650000.420.42FF33.228-45.772194435.1785746132700.634726113480121632115215DRYL
2025-07-12 00:00:02FORECAST2025287267.2851.20659.24300.0003937010.0003937010.420.420393701FF35.28-45.72194435.1785746132700.7069667179971642115217.5DRYL
2025-07-11 20:00:02FORECAST2025287266.251.49458.84700.0023622060.0023622060.420.422362206FF34.2-47.8194435.1785746132700.669742517038981632115215DRYL
2025-07-11 16:00:02FORECAST2025287266.32651.94459.13500.0023622060.0023622060.420.422362206FF34.326-49.674194435.1785746132700.674182518631221632115215DRYL
2025-07-11 12:00:02FORECAST2025287265.08449.9157.49700.0082677210.0082677210.420.428267721FF33.084-50.916194435.1785746132700.629432949315121632115215DRYL
2025-07-11 08:00:02FORECAST2025287263.80648.72256.26400.011811030.011811030.420.43181103FF31.806-50.194194435.1785746132700.581488367987641632115215DRYL
2025-07-11 04:00:04FORECAST2025287262.29449.3755.83200.0090551230.0090551230.420.429055123FF30.294-55.706194435.1785746132700.523217624029351632115215DRYL
2025-07-11 00:00:02FORECAST2025287261.89847.82254.8600.003937010.003937010.360.36393701FF29.898-50.102194435.1785746132700.507821687855571632115215DRYL
2025-07-10 20:00:02FORECAST2025287261.7947.24654.51800.0055118140.0055118140.360.365511814FF29.79-48.21194435.1785746132700.503619805668851632115215DRYL
2025-07-10 16:00:02FORECAST2025287262.61847.17454.89600.0055118140.0055118140.360.365511814FF30.618-47.382194435.1785746132700.535789605291441632115215DRYL
2025-07-10 12:00:02FORECAST2025287264.77848.95656.8670000.360.36FF32.778-46.222194435.1785746132700.6181044446231632115215DRYL
2025-07-10 08:00:02FORECAST2025287265.58850.1857.8840000.360.36FF33.588-48.412194435.1785746132700.647845344136381632115215DRYL
2025-07-10 04:00:04FORECAST2025287265.42649.29857.3620000.360.36FF33.426-48.574194435.1785746132700.641962342209811632115215DRYL
2025-07-10 00:00:02FORECAST2025287266.99248.52457.7580000.350.35FF34.992-52.008194435.1785746132700.69723099011251632115215DRYL
2025-07-09 20:00:02FORECAST2025287267.3748.63258.0010000.370.37FF35.37-51.63194435.1785746132700.709979105898381642115217.5DRYL
2025-07-09 16:00:02FORECAST2025287267.35248.21857.7850000.380.38FF35.352-53.648194435.1785746132700.709377789731661642115217.5DRYL
2025-07-09 12:00:03FORECAST2025287266.90247.71457.3080000.380.38FF34.902-53.098194435.1785746132700.694159159704091632115215DRYL
2025-07-09 08:00:02FORECAST2025287266.27247.44456.8580000.380.38FF34.272-53.728194435.1785746132700.672282635880171632115215DRYL
2025-07-09 04:00:04FORECAST2025287264.90447.40856.1560000.390.39FF32.904-56.096194435.1785746132700.622782001582691632115215DRYL
2025-07-09 00:00:03FORECAST2025287264.59849.24456.9210000.40.4FF32.598-64.402194435.1785746132700.611392369776111632115215DRYL
2025-07-08 20:00:02FORECAST2025287266.09250.93658.5140000.390.39FF34.092-58.908194435.1785746132700.665917668004581632115215DRYL
2025-07-08 16:00:02FORECAST2025287264.8550.66657.7580000.410.41FF32.85-63.15194435.1785746132700.620779493900511632115215DRYL
2025-07-08 12:00:02FORECAST2025287267.0151.04459.0270000.430.43FF35.01-56.99194435.1785746132700.697843695830311632115215DRYL
2025-07-08 08:00:03FORECAST2025287266.77649.74858.2620000.440.44FF34.776-56.224194435.1785746132700.689835606967371632115215DRYL
2025-07-08 04:00:04FORECAST2025287266.48849.15457.8210000.430.43FF34.488-56.512194435.1785746132700.679854944763731632115215DRYL
2025-07-08 00:00:03FORECAST2025287268.32449.8259.0720000.420.42FF36.324-64.676194435.1785746132700.740984004157731642115135DRYL
2025-07-07 20:00:02FORECAST2025287269.65647.80458.730000.410.41FF37.656-65.344194435.1785746132700.781221793028921642115135DRYL
2025-07-07 16:00:02FORECAST2025287270.28647.8459.0630000.440.44FF38.286-67.714194435.1785746132700.798926835687011642115135DRYL
2025-07-07 12:00:03FORECAST2025287268.7246.18457.452000.010.430.44FF36.72-64.28194435.1785746132700.753331855538961642115135DRYL
2025-07-07 11:20:57FORECAST2025287268.7246.18457.452000.010.430.44FF36.72-64.28194435.1785746132700.753331855538961642115135DRYL
2025-07-07 08:00:03FORECAST2025287267.40646.41856.912000.010.070.08FF35.406-65.594194435.1785746132700.711179987104251642115217.5DRYL
2025-07-07 04:00:04FORECAST2025287265.1246.05855.589NAN00.020.070.09FF33.12-70.88194NANNAN0.630758583510991632115215DRYL
2025-07-07 00:00:03FORECAST2025287269.65649.92859.7920000.10.1FF37.656-5.344194435.1785746132700.781221793028921642115135DRYL
2025-07-06 20:00:03FORECAST2025287269.65650.68460.170000.10.1FF37.656-5.344194435.1785746132700.781221793028921642115135DRYL
2025-07-06 16:00:03FORECAST2025287269.11650.32459.720000.110.11FF37.116-8.884194435.1785746132700.76535775879041642115135DRYL
2025-07-06 12:00:02FORECAST2025287262.65445.96854.31100.0141732360.0141732360.10.114173236FF30.654-8.346194435.1785746132700.537184519820181632115215DRYL
2025-07-06 08:00:03FORECAST2025287261.3445.64453.49200.0192913490.0192913490.10.119291349FF29.34-9.66194435.1785746132700.486112937344481622115212.5DRYL
2025-07-06 04:00:05FORECAST2025287265.8446.05855.949NAN000.090.09FF33.84-4.16194NANNAN0.656926351242571632115215DRYL
2025-07-06 00:00:03FORECAST2025287261.10647.0354.06800.0023622060.0023622060.050.052362206FF29.10652.106194435.1785746132700.477017801729811622115212.5DRYL
2025-07-05 20:00:03FORECAST2025287262.5148.03855.27400.0023622060.0023622060.050.052362206FF30.5160.51194435.1785746132700.531602289753261632115215DRYL
2025-07-05 16:00:03FORECAST2025287257.72245.66251.69200.0295275750.0295275750.070.099527575FF25.72256.722194435.1785746132700.3491201584821622115212.5DRYL
2025-07-05 12:00:03FORECAST2025287263.10441.8152.45700.0011811030.0711811030.060.131181103FF31.10465.104194435.1785746132700.554576890681391632115215DRYL
2025-07-05 08:00:03FORECAST2025287263.10441.8152.45700.0011811030.0711811030.060.131181103FF31.10469.104194435.1785746132700.554576890681391632115215DRYL
2025-07-05 04:00:05FORECAST2025287262.63644.29453.465NAN0.0007874020.0407874020.080.120787402FF30.63664.636194NANNAN0.536487118626911632115215DRYL
2025-07-05 00:00:04FORECAST2025287249.31643.77246.5440000.030.03FF17.316102.316194435.1785746132700.113533167944251612115210DRYL
2025-07-04 20:00:04FORECAST2025287249.31643.77246.5440000.030.03FF17.31699.316194435.1785746132700.113533167944251612115210DRYL
2025-07-04 16:00:03FORECAST2025287249.42442.36845.8960000.040.04FF17.424104.424194435.1785746132700.115574959569111612115210DRYL
2025-07-04 12:00:03FORECAST2025287245.44641.9943.71800.5559058121.0559058120.051.105905812FF13.44692.446194435.1785746132700.0563400616486481612145240DRYM
2025-07-04 08:00:03FORECAST2025287243.17840.26241.7200.5559058121.0559058120.061.115905812FF11.17888.178194435.1785746132700.0352792059657521612145240DRYM
2025-07-04 04:00:06FORECAST2025287238.73236.53637.634NAN00.030.010.04FF6.73292.732194NANNAN0.0124059538780071612115210DRYL