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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, July 14, 2025

[ Sunday, July 13, 2025 | Index | Today | Tuesday, July 15, 2025 ]

DAY 287 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/08/2025 12:00:02 PM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 67.01°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 51.04°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 59.03°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.698
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 35
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -57

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.43 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.43 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 194
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 435.18 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 2

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 2
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 15.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-07-08 12:00:02FORECAST2025287267.0151.04459.0270000.430.43FF35.01-56.99194435.1785746132700.697843695830311632115215DRYL
2025-07-08 08:00:03FORECAST2025287266.77649.74858.2620000.440.44FF34.776-56.224194435.1785746132700.689835606967371632115215DRYL
2025-07-08 04:00:04FORECAST2025287266.48849.15457.8210000.430.43FF34.488-56.512194435.1785746132700.679854944763731632115215DRYL
2025-07-08 00:00:03FORECAST2025287268.32449.8259.0720000.420.42FF36.324-64.676194435.1785746132700.740984004157731642115135DRYL
2025-07-07 20:00:02FORECAST2025287269.65647.80458.730000.410.41FF37.656-65.344194435.1785746132700.781221793028921642115135DRYL
2025-07-07 16:00:02FORECAST2025287270.28647.8459.0630000.440.44FF38.286-67.714194435.1785746132700.798926835687011642115135DRYL
2025-07-07 12:00:03FORECAST2025287268.7246.18457.452000.010.430.44FF36.72-64.28194435.1785746132700.753331855538961642115135DRYL
2025-07-07 11:20:57FORECAST2025287268.7246.18457.452000.010.430.44FF36.72-64.28194435.1785746132700.753331855538961642115135DRYL
2025-07-07 08:00:03FORECAST2025287267.40646.41856.912000.010.070.08FF35.406-65.594194435.1785746132700.711179987104251642115217.5DRYL
2025-07-07 04:00:04FORECAST2025287265.1246.05855.589NAN00.020.070.09FF33.12-70.88194NANNAN0.630758583510991632115215DRYL
2025-07-07 00:00:03FORECAST2025287269.65649.92859.7920000.10.1FF37.656-5.344194435.1785746132700.781221793028921642115135DRYL
2025-07-06 20:00:03FORECAST2025287269.65650.68460.170000.10.1FF37.656-5.344194435.1785746132700.781221793028921642115135DRYL
2025-07-06 16:00:03FORECAST2025287269.11650.32459.720000.110.11FF37.116-8.884194435.1785746132700.76535775879041642115135DRYL
2025-07-06 12:00:02FORECAST2025287262.65445.96854.31100.0141732360.0141732360.10.114173236FF30.654-8.346194435.1785746132700.537184519820181632115215DRYL
2025-07-06 08:00:03FORECAST2025287261.3445.64453.49200.0192913490.0192913490.10.119291349FF29.34-9.66194435.1785746132700.486112937344481622115212.5DRYL
2025-07-06 04:00:05FORECAST2025287265.8446.05855.949NAN000.090.09FF33.84-4.16194NANNAN0.656926351242571632115215DRYL
2025-07-06 00:00:03FORECAST2025287261.10647.0354.06800.0023622060.0023622060.050.052362206FF29.10652.106194435.1785746132700.477017801729811622115212.5DRYL
2025-07-05 20:00:03FORECAST2025287262.5148.03855.27400.0023622060.0023622060.050.052362206FF30.5160.51194435.1785746132700.531602289753261632115215DRYL
2025-07-05 16:00:03FORECAST2025287257.72245.66251.69200.0295275750.0295275750.070.099527575FF25.72256.722194435.1785746132700.3491201584821622115212.5DRYL
2025-07-05 12:00:03FORECAST2025287263.10441.8152.45700.0011811030.0711811030.060.131181103FF31.10465.104194435.1785746132700.554576890681391632115215DRYL
2025-07-05 08:00:03FORECAST2025287263.10441.8152.45700.0011811030.0711811030.060.131181103FF31.10469.104194435.1785746132700.554576890681391632115215DRYL
2025-07-05 04:00:05FORECAST2025287262.63644.29453.465NAN0.0007874020.0407874020.080.120787402FF30.63664.636194NANNAN0.536487118626911632115215DRYL
2025-07-05 00:00:04FORECAST2025287249.31643.77246.5440000.030.03FF17.316102.316194435.1785746132700.113533167944251612115210DRYL
2025-07-04 20:00:04FORECAST2025287249.31643.77246.5440000.030.03FF17.31699.316194435.1785746132700.113533167944251612115210DRYL
2025-07-04 16:00:03FORECAST2025287249.42442.36845.8960000.040.04FF17.424104.424194435.1785746132700.115574959569111612115210DRYL
2025-07-04 12:00:03FORECAST2025287245.44641.9943.71800.5559058121.0559058120.051.105905812FF13.44692.446194435.1785746132700.0563400616486481612145240DRYM
2025-07-04 08:00:03FORECAST2025287243.17840.26241.7200.5559058121.0559058120.061.115905812FF11.17888.178194435.1785746132700.0352792059657521612145240DRYM
2025-07-04 04:00:06FORECAST2025287238.73236.53637.634NAN00.030.010.04FF6.73292.732194NANNAN0.0124059538780071612115210DRYL