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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, July 13, 2025

[ Saturday, July 12, 2025 | Index | Today | Monday, July 14, 2025 ]

DAY 286 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/08/2025 12:00:02 PM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 68.56°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 51.57°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 60.06°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.720
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 37
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -124

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.44 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.44 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 193
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 434.56 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 1

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 2
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 35.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-07-08 12:00:02FORECAST2025286168.55851.56660.06200.0011811030.0011811030.440.441181103FF36.558-124.442193434.5590568585600.719927885080451642115135DRYL
2025-07-08 08:00:03FORECAST2025286168.41450.07259.24300.0011811030.0011811030.450.451181103FF36.414-122.586193434.5590568585600.715222881548061642115135DRYL
2025-07-08 04:00:04FORECAST2025286168.0950.37859.23400.0011811030.0011811030.440.441181103FF36.09-122.91193434.5590568585600.704501019482631642115135DRYL
2025-07-08 00:00:03FORECAST2025286167.58651.18859.3870000.430.43FF35.586-133.414193434.5590568585600.687464101250911632115215DRYL
2025-07-07 20:00:02FORECAST2025286166.05651.02658.5410000.420.42FF34.056-134.944193434.5590568585600.633370654739831632115215DRYL
2025-07-07 16:00:02FORECAST2025286165.17450.77457.9740000.450.45FF33.174-137.826193434.5590568585600.600849563439131632115215DRYL
2025-07-07 12:00:03FORECAST2025286165.5749.15457.36200.0074803190.0074803190.440.447480319FF33.57-133.43193434.5590568585600.615552618182791632115215DRYL
2025-07-07 11:20:57FORECAST2025286165.5749.15457.36200.0074803190.0074803190.440.447480319FF33.57-133.43193434.5590568585600.615552618182791632115215DRYL
2025-07-07 08:00:02FORECAST2025286165.60649.42457.51500.0074803190.0074803190.070.077480319FF33.606-133.394193434.5590568585600.616881403579571632115215DRYL
2025-07-07 04:00:04FORECAST2025286164.90449.35257.128NAN0.0181102460.0181102460.070.088110246FF32.904-136.096193NANNAN0.590740691991181632115215DRYL
2025-07-07 00:00:03FORECAST2025286164.8549.11856.9840000.10.1FF32.85-75.15193434.5590568585600.588711424881331632115215DRYL
2025-07-06 20:00:03FORECAST2025286166.70448.77657.740000.10.1FF34.704-75.296193434.5590568585600.656682296252861632115215DRYL
2025-07-06 16:00:02FORECAST2025286165.73249.08257.4070000.110.11FF33.732-78.268193434.5590568585600.621521241146931632115215DRYL
2025-07-06 12:00:02FORECAST2025286164.7649.98257.37100.0003937010.0003937010.10.100393701FF32.76-71.24193434.5590568585600.585324059443881632115215DRYL
2025-07-06 08:00:03FORECAST2025286162.2448.9255.5800.0003937010.0003937010.10.100393701FF30.24-70.76193434.5590568585600.488819539587151622115212.5DRYL
2025-07-06 04:00:04FORECAST2025286164.18449.65856.921NAN000.090.09FF32.184-69.816193NANNAN0.563504935086091632115215DRYL
2025-07-06 00:00:03FORECAST2025286167.22651.18859.2070000.050.05FF35.226-8.774193434.5590568585600.67504200793511632115215DRYL
2025-07-05 20:00:03FORECAST2025286167.94651.56659.7560000.050.05FF35.946-2.054193434.5590568585600.699676949968591642115217.5DRYL
2025-07-05 16:00:03FORECAST2025286166.68651.78259.2340000.070.07FF34.686-1.314193434.5590568585600.656042248041441632115215DRYL
2025-07-05 12:00:02FORECAST2025286161.91650.10856.01200.0724409840.0724409840.060.132440984FF29.9161.916193434.5590568585600.476339055628191622115212.5DRYL
2025-07-05 08:00:03FORECAST2025286161.91650.10856.01200.0724409840.0724409840.060.132440984FF29.9165.916193434.5590568585600.476339055628191622115212.5DRYL
2025-07-05 04:00:05FORECAST2025286161.68250.73856.21NAN0.0283464720.0383464720.080.118346472FF29.6821.682193NANNAN0.467339081332471622115212.5DRYL
2025-07-05 00:00:04FORECAST2025286163.55448.99256.2730000.030.03FF31.55452.554193434.5590568585600.53941939675161632115215DRYL
2025-07-04 20:00:04FORECAST2025286163.55448.99256.2730000.030.03FF31.55449.554193434.5590568585600.53941939675161632115215DRYL
2025-07-04 16:00:03FORECAST2025286166.09250.7258.4060000.040.04FF34.09255.092193434.5590568585600.634679682077281632115215DRYL
2025-07-04 12:00:03FORECAST2025286154.93246.11250.52200.5003939710.5003939710.050.550393971FF22.93246.932193434.5590568585600.231353900428541612135230DRYL
2025-07-04 08:00:03FORECAST2025286154.39243.82649.10900.5003939710.5003939710.060.560393971FF22.39245.392193434.5590568585600.215757504005131612135230DRYL
2025-07-04 04:00:06FORECAST2025286156.62440.38848.506NAN0.0251968640.0251968640.010.035196864FF24.62453.624193NANNAN0.284055865897811622115212.5DRYL
2025-07-04 00:00:03FORECAST2025286150.8144.67247.7410000.030.03FF18.8198.81193434.5590568585600.128598251460411612115210DRYL
2025-07-03 20:00:03FORECAST2025286150.8144.70847.7590000.030.03FF18.8198.81193434.5590568585600.128598251460411612115210DRYL
2025-07-03 16:00:03FORECAST2025286158.31646.00452.160000.060.06FF26.316116.316193434.5590568585600.34189698358111622115212.5DRYL
2025-07-03 12:00:03FORECAST2025286150.3644.76247.5610000.070.07FF18.36108.36193434.5590568585600.119679834020781612115210DRYL
2025-07-03 08:00:03FORECAST2025286150.3644.76247.5610000.070.07FF18.36112.36193434.5590568585600.119679834020781612115210DRYL
2025-07-03 04:00:05FORECAST2025286142.9841.55842.269NAN000.040.04FF10.98100.98193NANNAN0.0292455688137711612115210DRYL