MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, July 13, 2025

[ Saturday, July 12, 2025 | Index | Today | Monday, July 14, 2025 ]

DAY 286 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/14/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 59.77°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 58.47°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 59.12°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.395
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 28
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -125

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.43 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.43 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 193
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 435.14 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.61 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 1

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 2
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 4
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-07-14 04:00:03OBSERVATION2025286159.7700458.4700859.120061.397635000.430.43FF27.77004-125.22996193435.13788801585 0.608163942117030.3948291089075916 22114210DRYL
2025-07-14 00:00:01FORECAST2025286171.52851.58461.5560000.430.43FF39.528-113.472193434.5590568585600.80778257072061642115135DRYL
2025-07-13 12:00:02FORECAST2025286170.93451.67461.3040000.430.43FF38.934-114.066193434.5590568585600.791695905439981642115135DRYL
2025-07-13 08:00:01FORECAST2025286171.18651.4461.3130000.430.43FF39.186-113.814193434.5590568585600.79861519625751642115135DRYL
2025-07-13 04:00:05FORECAST2025286170.66451.04460.8540000.430.43FF38.664-114.336193434.5590568585600.784129249753111642115135DRYL
2025-07-13 00:00:01FORECAST2025286171.40251.31461.3580000.430.43FF39.402-115.598193434.5590568585600.804435158680971642115135DRYL
2025-07-12 20:00:02FORECAST2025286171.5150.93661.2230000.430.43FF39.51-114.49193434.5590568585600.807306521738391642115135DRYL
2025-07-12 16:00:01FORECAST2025286172.08652.84462.4650000.430.43FF40.086-113.914193434.5590568585600.82218214193681642115135DRYL
2025-07-12 12:00:02FORECAST2025286171.88853.47462.6810000.430.43FF39.888-114.112193434.5590568585600.817152223641721642115135DRYL
2025-07-12 08:00:01FORECAST2025286172.98655.25664.1210000.430.43FF40.986-112.014193434.5590568585600.84393379756781642115135DRYL
2025-07-12 04:00:04FORECAST2025286174.04855.45464.7510000.430.43FF42.048-110.952193434.5590568585600.867252445778881652115140DRYM
2025-07-12 00:00:02FORECAST2025286173.36454.93264.1480000.430.43FF41.364-112.636193434.5590568585600.852524524402821652115140DRYM
2025-07-11 20:00:02FORECAST2025286173.83255.47264.6520000.430.43FF41.832-114.168193434.5590568585600.862714860672741652115140DRYM
2025-07-11 16:00:02FORECAST2025286172.3254.73463.5270000.430.43FF40.32-115.68193434.5590568585600.828013152117951642115135DRYL
2025-07-11 12:00:02FORECAST2025286172.33854.46463.4010000.430.43FF40.338-115.662193434.5590568585600.828456590450261642115135DRYL
2025-07-11 08:00:01FORECAST2025286172.53654.48263.5090000.430.43FF40.536-114.464193434.5590568585600.833286239778671642115135DRYL
2025-07-11 04:00:04FORECAST2025286171.04253.88862.4650000.430.43FF39.042-117.958193434.5590568585600.794678297976821642115135DRYL
2025-07-11 00:00:02FORECAST2025286170.93454.21262.5730000.370.37FF38.934-112.066193434.5590568585600.791695905439981642115135DRYL
2025-07-10 20:00:02FORECAST2025286170.59254.06862.330000.370.37FF38.592-110.408193434.5590568585600.782084945930021642115135DRYL
2025-07-10 16:00:01FORECAST2025286170.57454.12262.3480000.370.37FF38.574-110.426193434.5590568585600.781572134314281642115135DRYL
2025-07-10 12:00:02FORECAST2025286170.50254.28462.3930000.370.37FF38.502-111.498193434.5590568585600.779513963512451642115135DRYL
2025-07-10 08:00:02FORECAST2025286169.74654.4162.0780000.370.37FF37.746-114.254193434.5590568585600.757244478923021642115135DRYL
2025-07-10 04:00:04FORECAST2025286168.64853.6961.1690000.370.37FF36.648-114.352193434.5590568585600.722849274644921642115135DRYL
2025-07-10 00:00:02FORECAST2025286167.71252.53860.1250000.360.36FF35.712-119.288193434.5590568585600.691762976484691632115215DRYL
2025-07-09 20:00:02FORECAST2025286169.18852.19660.6920000.380.38FF37.188-118.812193434.5590568585600.740058352342051642115135DRYL
2025-07-09 16:00:02FORECAST2025286168.03651.859.9180000.390.39FF36.036-120.964193434.5590568585600.70269616632431642115135DRYL
2025-07-09 12:00:02FORECAST2025286167.5551.13459.34200.0003937010.0003937010.390.390393701FF35.55-120.45193434.5590568585600.686231120755381632115215DRYL
2025-07-09 08:00:02FORECAST2025286166.6551.24258.9460000.390.39FF34.65-120.35193434.5590568585600.654760811688251632115215DRYL
2025-07-09 04:00:04FORECAST2025286168.25251.78260.0170000.40.4FF36.252-120.748193434.5590568585600.709885138593161642115135DRYL
2025-07-09 00:00:03FORECAST2025286167.92850.0959.0090000.410.41FF35.928-129.072193434.5590568585600.699071449349631642115217.5DRYL
2025-07-08 20:00:02FORECAST2025286168.950.5459.720000.40.4FF36.9-125.1193434.5590568585600.730949064206841642115135DRYL
2025-07-08 16:00:02FORECAST2025286168.25250.07259.1620000.420.42FF36.252-127.748193434.5590568585600.709885138593161642115135DRYL
2025-07-08 12:00:02FORECAST2025286168.55851.56660.06200.0011811030.0011811030.440.441181103FF36.558-124.442193434.5590568585600.719927885080451642115135DRYL
2025-07-08 08:00:03FORECAST2025286168.41450.07259.24300.0011811030.0011811030.450.451181103FF36.414-122.586193434.5590568585600.715222881548061642115135DRYL
2025-07-08 04:00:04FORECAST2025286168.0950.37859.23400.0011811030.0011811030.440.441181103FF36.09-122.91193434.5590568585600.704501019482631642115135DRYL
2025-07-08 00:00:03FORECAST2025286167.58651.18859.3870000.430.43FF35.586-133.414193434.5590568585600.687464101250911632115215DRYL
2025-07-07 20:00:02FORECAST2025286166.05651.02658.5410000.420.42FF34.056-134.944193434.5590568585600.633370654739831632115215DRYL
2025-07-07 16:00:02FORECAST2025286165.17450.77457.9740000.450.45FF33.174-137.826193434.5590568585600.600849563439131632115215DRYL
2025-07-07 12:00:03FORECAST2025286165.5749.15457.36200.0074803190.0074803190.440.447480319FF33.57-133.43193434.5590568585600.615552618182791632115215DRYL
2025-07-07 11:20:57FORECAST2025286165.5749.15457.36200.0074803190.0074803190.440.447480319FF33.57-133.43193434.5590568585600.615552618182791632115215DRYL
2025-07-07 08:00:02FORECAST2025286165.60649.42457.51500.0074803190.0074803190.070.077480319FF33.606-133.394193434.5590568585600.616881403579571632115215DRYL
2025-07-07 04:00:04FORECAST2025286164.90449.35257.128NAN0.0181102460.0181102460.070.088110246FF32.904-136.096193NANNAN0.590740691991181632115215DRYL
2025-07-07 00:00:03FORECAST2025286164.8549.11856.9840000.10.1FF32.85-75.15193434.5590568585600.588711424881331632115215DRYL
2025-07-06 20:00:03FORECAST2025286166.70448.77657.740000.10.1FF34.704-75.296193434.5590568585600.656682296252861632115215DRYL
2025-07-06 16:00:02FORECAST2025286165.73249.08257.4070000.110.11FF33.732-78.268193434.5590568585600.621521241146931632115215DRYL
2025-07-06 12:00:02FORECAST2025286164.7649.98257.37100.0003937010.0003937010.10.100393701FF32.76-71.24193434.5590568585600.585324059443881632115215DRYL
2025-07-06 08:00:03FORECAST2025286162.2448.9255.5800.0003937010.0003937010.10.100393701FF30.24-70.76193434.5590568585600.488819539587151622115212.5DRYL
2025-07-06 04:00:04FORECAST2025286164.18449.65856.921NAN000.090.09FF32.184-69.816193NANNAN0.563504935086091632115215DRYL
2025-07-06 00:00:03FORECAST2025286167.22651.18859.2070000.050.05FF35.226-8.774193434.5590568585600.67504200793511632115215DRYL
2025-07-05 20:00:03FORECAST2025286167.94651.56659.7560000.050.05FF35.946-2.054193434.5590568585600.699676949968591642115217.5DRYL
2025-07-05 16:00:03FORECAST2025286166.68651.78259.2340000.070.07FF34.686-1.314193434.5590568585600.656042248041441632115215DRYL
2025-07-05 12:00:02FORECAST2025286161.91650.10856.01200.0724409840.0724409840.060.132440984FF29.9161.916193434.5590568585600.476339055628191622115212.5DRYL
2025-07-05 08:00:03FORECAST2025286161.91650.10856.01200.0724409840.0724409840.060.132440984FF29.9165.916193434.5590568585600.476339055628191622115212.5DRYL
2025-07-05 04:00:05FORECAST2025286161.68250.73856.21NAN0.0283464720.0383464720.080.118346472FF29.6821.682193NANNAN0.467339081332471622115212.5DRYL
2025-07-05 00:00:04FORECAST2025286163.55448.99256.2730000.030.03FF31.55452.554193434.5590568585600.53941939675161632115215DRYL
2025-07-04 20:00:04FORECAST2025286163.55448.99256.2730000.030.03FF31.55449.554193434.5590568585600.53941939675161632115215DRYL
2025-07-04 16:00:03FORECAST2025286166.09250.7258.4060000.040.04FF34.09255.092193434.5590568585600.634679682077281632115215DRYL
2025-07-04 12:00:03FORECAST2025286154.93246.11250.52200.5003939710.5003939710.050.550393971FF22.93246.932193434.5590568585600.231353900428541612135230DRYL
2025-07-04 08:00:03FORECAST2025286154.39243.82649.10900.5003939710.5003939710.060.560393971FF22.39245.392193434.5590568585600.215757504005131612135230DRYL
2025-07-04 04:00:06FORECAST2025286156.62440.38848.506NAN0.0251968640.0251968640.010.035196864FF24.62453.624193NANNAN0.284055865897811622115212.5DRYL
2025-07-04 00:00:03FORECAST2025286150.8144.67247.7410000.030.03FF18.8198.81193434.5590568585600.128598251460411612115210DRYL
2025-07-03 20:00:03FORECAST2025286150.8144.70847.7590000.030.03FF18.8198.81193434.5590568585600.128598251460411612115210DRYL
2025-07-03 16:00:03FORECAST2025286158.31646.00452.160000.060.06FF26.316116.316193434.5590568585600.34189698358111622115212.5DRYL
2025-07-03 12:00:03FORECAST2025286150.3644.76247.5610000.070.07FF18.36108.36193434.5590568585600.119679834020781612115210DRYL
2025-07-03 08:00:03FORECAST2025286150.3644.76247.5610000.070.07FF18.36112.36193434.5590568585600.119679834020781612115210DRYL
2025-07-03 04:00:05FORECAST2025286142.9841.55842.269NAN000.040.04FF10.98100.98193NANNAN0.0292455688137711612115210DRYL