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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, July 12, 2025

[ Friday, July 11, 2025 | Index | Today | Sunday, July 13, 2025 ]

DAY 285 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/08/2025 12:00:02 PM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 67.82°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 50.86°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 59.34°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.651
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 36
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -193

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.01 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.43 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.44 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 192
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 433.94 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 0

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 2
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 15.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-07-08 12:00:02FORECAST2025285067.8250.86459.342000.010.430.44FF35.82-193.18192433.9371804577800.650586485030321632115215DRYL
2025-07-08 08:00:02FORECAST2025285067.33450.01858.676000.010.440.45FF35.334-190.666192433.9371804577800.633346926418871632115215DRYL
2025-07-08 04:00:03FORECAST2025285068.0949.62258.8560000.440.44FF36.09-190.91192433.9371804577800.660034179314891632115130DRYL
2025-07-08 00:00:03FORECAST2025285067.17248.90258.0370000.430.43FF35.172-200.828192433.9371804577800.627538073657911632115215DRYL
2025-07-07 20:00:02FORECAST2025285067.26248.99258.1270000.420.42FF35.262-200.738192433.9371804577800.63076889124841632115215DRYL
2025-07-07 16:00:02FORECAST2025285067.15448.72257.9380000.450.45FF35.154-202.846192433.9371804577800.626890823790311632115215DRYL
2025-07-07 12:00:03FORECAST2025285065.64248.34456.993000.010.430.44FF33.642-199.358192433.9371804577800.57141622308091632115215DRYL
2025-07-07 11:20:57FORECAST2025285065.64248.34456.993000.010.430.44FF33.642-199.358192433.9371804577800.57141622308091632115215DRYL
2025-07-07 08:00:02FORECAST2025285065.55249.157.3260000.070.07FF33.552-199.448192433.9371804577800.568057329391851632115215DRYL
2025-07-07 04:00:04FORECAST2025285065.64248.52457.083NAN000.070.07FF33.642-201.358192NANNAN0.57141622308091632115215DRYL
2025-07-07 00:00:03FORECAST2025285064.00447.10255.553000.010.090.1FF32.004-139.996192433.9371804577800.509718060864991632115215DRYL
2025-07-06 20:00:03FORECAST2025285062.61846.45454.536000.010.090.1FF30.618-142.382192433.9371804577800.457269321382611622115212.5DRYL
2025-07-06 16:00:02FORECAST2025285062.31246.34654.329000.010.10.11FF30.312-143.688192433.9371804577800.445757585613291622115212.5DRYL
2025-07-06 12:00:02FORECAST2025285065.78648.18256.984000.010.090.1FF33.786-136.214192433.9371804577800.576779612390631632115215DRYL
2025-07-06 08:00:02FORECAST2025285066.248.27257.236000.010.090.1FF34.2-132.8192433.9371804577800.592116982408361632115215DRYL
2025-07-06 04:00:04FORECAST2025285067.02848.32657.677NAN00.010.080.09FF35.028-133.972192NANNAN0.622350140890321632115215DRYL
2025-07-06 00:00:03FORECAST2025285068.12649.5558.838000.020.030.05FF36.126-75.874192433.9371804577800.661286474029981632115130DRYL
2025-07-05 20:00:03FORECAST2025285068.4551.6260.035000.020.030.05FF36.45-69.55192433.9371804577800.672475622388111632115130DRYL
2025-07-05 16:00:03FORECAST2025285069.06251.860.431000.020.050.07FF37.062-67.938192433.9371804577800.693187397400071632115130DRYL
2025-07-05 12:00:02FORECAST2025285069.47652.37660.9260000.060.06FF37.476-59.524192433.9371804577800.706861989472671642115135DRYL
2025-07-05 08:00:02FORECAST2025285070.5252.28661.4030000.060.06FF38.52-56.48192433.9371804577800.740029760215581642115135DRYL
2025-07-05 04:00:05FORECAST2025285068.50451.7160.107NAN0.0082677210.0182677210.070.088267721FF36.504-60.496192NANNAN0.674325860804641632115130DRYL
2025-07-05 00:00:03FORECAST2025285068.91851.45860.188000.010.020.03FF36.918-11.082192433.9371804577800.688365973457231632115130DRYL
2025-07-04 20:00:03FORECAST2025285068.91851.1760.044000.010.020.03FF36.918-14.082192433.9371804577800.688365973457231632115130DRYL
2025-07-04 16:00:03FORECAST2025285070.23252.3461.2860000.040.04FF38.232-10.768192433.9371804577800.731076442102431642115135DRYL
2025-07-04 12:00:02FORECAST2025285068.79252.19660.494000.010.040.05FF36.792-8.208192433.9371804577800.684120556822911632115130DRYL
2025-07-04 08:00:02FORECAST2025285068.5451.0859.81000.010.050.06FF36.54-9.46192433.9371804577800.675556976841511632115130DRYL
2025-07-04 04:00:06FORECAST2025285066.66847.08456.876NAN00.0100.01FF34.668-3.332192NANNAN0.609285299307221632115215DRYL
2025-07-04 00:00:03FORECAST2025285064.5847.26455.9220000.030.03FF32.5847.58192433.9371804577800.531517534907071632115215DRYL
2025-07-03 20:00:03FORECAST2025285064.56247.35455.9580000.030.03FF32.56247.562192433.9371804577800.530837389063811632115215DRYL
2025-07-03 16:00:03FORECAST2025285066.16447.64256.9030000.060.06FF34.16458.164192433.9371804577800.590788529099171632115215DRYL
2025-07-03 12:00:03FORECAST2025285071.04245.89658.4690000.070.07FF39.04258.042192433.9371804577800.755857321471171642115135DRYL
2025-07-03 08:00:02FORECAST2025285071.04246.20258.6220000.070.07FF39.04262.042192433.9371804577800.755857321471171642115135DRYL
2025-07-03 04:00:05FORECAST2025285061.41244.38452.898NAN000.040.04FF29.41258.412192NANNAN0.412198897456711622115212.5DRYL
2025-07-03 00:00:03FORECAST2025285051.81845.12248.4700.0389763990.0889763990.040.128976399FF19.81895.818192433.9371804577800.128468192609771612115210DRYL
2025-07-02 20:00:03FORECAST2025285054.60845.84250.22500.0389763990.0889763990.040.128976399FF22.608105.608192433.9371804577800.192589756572451612115210DRYL
2025-07-02 16:00:04FORECAST2025285048.18242.00845.09500.03937010.08937010.10.1893701FF16.18296.182192433.9371804577800.0694712607286821612115210DRYL
2025-07-02 12:00:03FORECAST2025285044.45641.03642.746000.040.010.05FF12.45690.456192433.9371804577800.0332528292584111612115210DRYL
2025-07-02 08:00:03FORECAST2025285042.63840.49641.567000.0400.04FF10.63887.638192433.9371804577800.0222906871942741612115210DRYL
2025-07-02 04:00:05FORECAST2025285042.63840.49641.567NAN00.0400.04FF10.63886.638192NANNAN0.0222906871942741612115210DRYL