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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, July 11, 2025

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DAY 284 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/08/2025 12:00:02 PM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 66.88°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 48.20°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 57.54°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.674
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 35
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -261

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.10 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.34 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.44 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 191
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 433.31 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -1

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 25.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-07-08 12:00:02FORECAST2025284-166.88448.257.542000.10.340.44FF34.884-261.116191433.3129364310400.674246213874221631125225DRYL
2025-07-08 08:00:02FORECAST2025284-167.67647.64257.659000.110.340.45FF35.676-258.324191433.3129364310400.700930048617461641125230DRYL
2025-07-08 04:00:03FORECAST2025284-166.7446.81456.777000.10.340.44FF34.74-259.26191433.3129364310400.66929179225971631125225DRYL
2025-07-08 00:00:02FORECAST2025284-164.61645.60855.112000.090.340.43FF32.616-268.384191433.3129364310400.593180616204931631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-07 20:00:02FORECAST2025284-164.7646.47255.616000.080.340.42FF32.76-268.24191433.3129364310400.59849146382321631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-07 16:00:02FORECAST2025284-164.92245.84255.382000.110.340.45FF32.922-270.078191433.3129364310400.604444453756561631125225DRYL
2025-07-07 12:00:03FORECAST2025284-167.08246.00456.543000.10.340.44FF35.082-264.918191433.3129364310400.681008490390261631125225DRYL
2025-07-07 11:20:57FORECAST2025284-167.08246.00456.543000.10.340.44FF35.082-264.918191433.3129364310400.681008490390261631125225DRYL
2025-07-07 08:00:02FORECAST2025284-167.17246.3156.741000.0700.07FF35.172-264.828191433.3129364310400.684062638399521631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-07 04:00:04FORECAST2025284-166.30845.80656.057NAN00.0700.07FF34.308-266.692191NANNAN0.654252682548991631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-07 00:00:03FORECAST2025284-165.6646.65256.156000.100.1FF33.66-204.34191433.3129364310400.63123720880641631125225DRYL
2025-07-06 20:00:02FORECAST2025284-165.6647.53456.597000.100.1FF33.66-205.34191433.3129364310400.63123720880641631125225DRYL
2025-07-06 16:00:02FORECAST2025284-165.17447.96656.57000.1100.11FF33.174-205.826191433.3129364310400.613655953049981631125225DRYL
2025-07-06 12:00:02FORECAST2025284-165.69646.68856.192000.100.1FF33.696-202.304191433.3129364310400.632529174825461631125225DRYL
2025-07-06 08:00:02FORECAST2025284-165.60645.24855.427000.100.1FF33.606-199.394191433.3129364310400.629296480971831631125225DRYL
2025-07-06 04:00:04FORECAST2025284-165.4845.37455.427NAN00.0900.09FF33.48-200.52191NANNAN0.624755385101711631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-06 00:00:03FORECAST2025284-167.2845.556.39000.0500.05FF35.28-143.72191433.3129364310400.687711097666151631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-05 20:00:03FORECAST2025284-168.68447.28257.983000.0500.05FF36.684-138.316191433.3129364310400.733376177112141641115130DRYL
2025-07-05 16:00:02FORECAST2025284-168.82847.40858.118000.0700.07FF36.828-137.172191433.3129364310400.737861985485271641115130DRYL
2025-07-05 12:00:02FORECAST2025284-167.13647.9357.533000.0600.06FF35.136-128.864191433.3129364310400.682842469844351631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-05 08:00:02FORECAST2025284-167.9147.37257.641000.0600.06FF35.91-127.09191433.3129364310400.708619964483871641115215DRYL
2025-07-05 04:00:04FORECAST2025284-167.60447.98457.794NAN00.0800.08FF35.604-129.396191NANNAN0.698545535281241631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-05 00:00:03FORECAST2025284-168.4545.57257.011000.0300.03FF36.45-79.55191433.3129364310400.726004993485141641115130DRYL
2025-07-04 20:00:03FORECAST2025284-169.1746.70657.938000.0300.03FF37.17-82.83191433.3129364310400.748358808500141641115130DRYL
2025-07-04 16:00:03FORECAST2025284-169.8947.06658.478000.0400.04FF37.89-81.11191433.3129364310400.769711792369251641115130DRYL
2025-07-04 12:00:02FORECAST2025284-170.91649.62260.269000.0500.05FF38.916-77.084191433.3129364310400.798313470950711641115130DRYL
2025-07-04 08:00:02FORECAST2025284-170.93447.42659.18000.0600.06FF38.934-78.066191433.3129364310400.798795522094851641115130DRYL
2025-07-04 04:00:06FORECAST2025284-172.19447.10259.648NAN00.0100.01FF40.194-69.806191NANNAN0.83080473450011641115130DRYL
2025-07-04 00:00:03FORECAST2025284-169.02648.95658.9910000.030.03FF37.026-16.974191433.3129364310400.743966284197161641115130DRYL
2025-07-03 20:00:03FORECAST2025284-169.04449.04659.0450000.030.03FF37.044-16.956191433.3129364310400.74451752555011641115130DRYL
2025-07-03 16:00:03FORECAST2025284-170.91650.28860.6020000.060.06FF38.916-8.084191433.3129364310400.798313470950711641115130DRYL
2025-07-03 12:00:03FORECAST2025284-164.9446.86855.9040000.070.07FF32.94-13.06191433.3129364310400.605104423376041631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-03 08:00:02FORECAST2025284-164.92247.08456.0030000.070.07FF32.922-9.078191433.3129364310400.604444453756561631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-03 04:00:05FORECAST2025284-165.55246.99456.273NAN000.040.04FF33.552-3.448191NANNAN0.627352459096131631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-03 00:00:03FORECAST2025284-167.08247.6657.37100.0480315220.08803152200.088031522FF35.08244.082191433.3129364310400.681008490390261631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-02 20:00:03FORECAST2025284-168.43247.9358.18100.0480315220.08803152200.088031522FF36.43251.432191433.3129364310400.72543384021221641115130DRYL
2025-07-02 16:00:03FORECAST2025284-167.35248.86658.10900.0492126250.0592126250.090.149212625FF35.35248.352191433.3129364310400.690133256214981631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-02 12:00:03FORECAST2025284-162.74446.0454.39200.0059055150.0359055150.010.045905515FF30.74445.744191433.3129364310400.522928718437921631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-02 08:00:03FORECAST2025284-165.01244.07854.54500.0059055150.03590551500.035905515FF33.01245.012191433.3129364310400.607741270291071631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-02 04:00:05FORECAST2025284-165.01244.07854.545NAN0.0059055150.03590551500.035905515FF33.01244.012191NANNAN0.607741270291071631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-02 00:00:03FORECAST2025284-152.64648.75850.70200000FF20.64683.646191433.3129364310400.18299697189906161111527.5DRYL
2025-07-01 20:00:03FORECAST2025284-153.6947.51650.60300000FF21.6977.69191433.3129364310400.21053592026315161111527.5DRYL
2025-07-01 16:00:03FORECAST2025284-153.7847.44450.61200000FF21.7877.78191433.3129364310400.21301848245265161111527.5DRYL
2025-07-01 12:00:03FORECAST2025284-150.91845.28448.101000.020.010.03FF18.91874.918191433.3129364310400.14261584418835161111527.5DRYL
2025-07-01 08:00:03FORECAST2025284-150.91845.28448.101000.0300.03FF18.91877.918191433.3129364310400.14261584418835161111527.5DRYL
2025-07-01 04:00:04FORECAST2025284-148.3846.1347.255NAN00.0300.03FF16.3877.38191NANNAN0.094995156995718161111527.5DRYL