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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, July 10, 2025

[ Wednesday, July 9, 2025 | Index | Today | Friday, July 11, 2025 ]

DAY 283 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/08/2025 12:00:01 PM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 58.03°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 40.41°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 49.22°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.379
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 26
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -328

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.01 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.10 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.34 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.44 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 190
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 432.69 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -2

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 20.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-07-08 12:00:01FORECAST2025283-258.02840.40649.21700.0059055150.0959055150.340.435905515FF26.028-327.972190432.6863157642500.378609795405751621125220DRYL
2025-07-08 08:00:02FORECAST2025283-258.29840.17249.23500.0055118140.1055118140.340.445511814FF26.298-325.702190432.6863157642500.387863185603211621125220DRYL
2025-07-08 04:00:03FORECAST2025283-258.5540.04649.29800.0043307110.1043307110.340.444330711FF26.55-326.45190432.6863157642500.396557620045781621125220DRYL
2025-07-08 00:00:02FORECAST2025283-257.45239.61448.53300.0027559070.0927559070.340.432755907FF25.452-332.548190432.6863157642500.35910612907041621125220DRYL
2025-07-07 20:00:02FORECAST2025283-257.66839.14648.40700.0019685050.0819685050.340.421968505FF25.668-333.332190432.6863157642500.366380201686261621115210DRYL
2025-07-07 16:00:01FORECAST2025283-256.28239.61447.94800.003937010.113937010.340.45393701FF24.282-334.718190432.6863157642500.320644600731441621125220DRYL
2025-07-07 12:00:03FORECAST2025283-257.9239.66848.79400.0062992160.0962992160.340.436299216FF25.92-332.08190432.6863157642500.374927501643231621125220DRYL
2025-07-07 11:20:57FORECAST2025283-257.9239.66848.79400.0062992160.0962992160.340.436299216FF25.92-332.08190432.6863157642500.374927501643231621125220DRYL
2025-07-07 08:00:02FORECAST2025283-258.47840.29849.38800.0027559070.07275590700.072755907FF26.478-331.522190432.6863157642500.394068036028771621115210DRYL
2025-07-07 04:00:03FORECAST2025283-257.2940.06448.677NAN00.0700.07FF25.29-332.71190NANNAN0.353683718000141621115210DRYL
2025-07-07 00:00:02FORECAST2025283-258.15439.77648.96500.0145669370.10456693700.104566937FF26.154-269.846190432.6863157642500.382919749122031621125220DRYL
2025-07-06 20:00:02FORECAST2025283-258.9139.32649.11800.0129921330.10299213300.102992133FF26.91-271.09190432.6863157642500.409066938821451621125220DRYL
2025-07-06 16:00:02FORECAST2025283-259.46838.19248.8300.0122047310.11220473100.112204731FF27.468-270.532190432.6863157642500.428636212414231621125220DRYL
2025-07-06 12:00:02FORECAST2025283-259.30637.59848.45200.0066929170.09669291700.096692917FF27.306-267.694190432.6863157642500.422934459992341621125220DRYL
2025-07-06 08:00:02FORECAST2025283-258.20838.40848.30800.0062992160.09629921600.096299216FF26.208-264.792190432.6863157642500.384771352634811621125220DRYL
2025-07-06 04:00:03FORECAST2025283-258.76639.03848.902NAN0.0062992160.08629921600.086299216FF26.766-266.234190NANNAN0.40405132266791621115210DRYL
2025-07-06 00:00:03FORECAST2025283-258.58641.93650.26100.0220472560.05204725600.052047256FF26.586-211.414190432.6863157642500.397804001842321621115210DRYL
2025-07-05 20:00:02FORECAST2025283-258.7341.52250.12600.0220472560.05204725600.052047256FF26.73-207.27190432.6863157642500.402799844279111621115210DRYL
2025-07-05 16:00:02FORECAST2025283-258.53242.74650.63900.015748040.0657480400.06574804FF26.532-206.468190432.6863157642500.395934824326031621115210DRYL
2025-07-05 12:00:02FORECAST2025283-260.20645.64452.92500.0047244120.06472441200.064724412FF28.206-195.794190432.6863157642500.454782147801841621115210DRYL
2025-07-05 08:00:02FORECAST2025283-259.79244.56452.17800.0047244120.06472441200.064724412FF27.792-195.208190432.6863157642500.440083341029841621115210DRYL
2025-07-05 04:00:04FORECAST2025283-260.06243.8851.971NAN0.007874020.0778740200.07787402FF28.062-196.938190NANNAN0.449661444487521621115210DRYL
2025-07-05 00:00:03FORECAST2025283-259.37843.55651.46700.0062992160.02629921600.026299216FF27.378-147.622190432.6863157642500.425466653994191621115210DRYL
2025-07-04 20:00:03FORECAST2025283-260.27842.60251.4400.0110236280.03102362800.031023628FF28.278-151.722190432.6863157642500.457345374195711621115210DRYL
2025-07-04 16:00:03FORECAST2025283-259.73840.94650.34200.003937010.0439370100.04393701FF27.738-151.262190432.6863157642500.43817173698441621115210DRYL
2025-07-04 12:00:02FORECAST2025283-260.31442.42251.36800.0133858340.05338583400.053385834FF28.314-147.686190432.6863157642500.458627659832311621115210DRYL
2025-07-04 08:00:02FORECAST2025283-261.26845.03253.1500.0122047310.06220473100.062204731FF29.268-148.732190432.6863157642500.492723866829371621115210DRYL
2025-07-04 04:00:06FORECAST2025283-261.64645.6853.663NAN0.0122047310.01220473100.012204731FF29.646-142.354190NANNAN0.506262358364751631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-04 00:00:03FORECAST2025283-263.08646.92255.0040000.030.03FF31.086-85.914190432.6863157642500.557638342268041631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-03 20:00:02FORECAST2025283-263.06846.92254.9950000.030.03FF31.068-85.932190432.6863157642500.557000286678561631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-03 16:00:02FORECAST2025283-264.6747.6656.1650000.060.06FF32.67-79.33190432.6863157642500.613020174844281631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-03 12:00:03FORECAST2025283-264.32848.36256.345000.010.060.07FF32.328-77.672190432.6863157642500.601215203643061631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-03 08:00:02FORECAST2025283-264.95848.27256.615000.010.060.07FF32.958-74.042190432.6863157642500.622881256094271631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-03 04:00:05FORECAST2025283-266.88449.60458.244NAN000.040.04FF34.884-69.116190NANNAN0.686509871621611631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-03 00:00:03FORECAST2025283-265.0349.42457.227000.0400.04FF33.03-22.97190432.6863157642500.625334340203161631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-02 20:00:02FORECAST2025283-266.05648.25457.155000.0400.04FF34.056-16.944190432.6863157642500.659698045570411631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-02 16:00:03FORECAST2025283-267.78450.5459.162000.010.090.1FF35.784-19.216190432.6863157642500.714571922156071641115215DRYL
2025-07-02 12:00:03FORECAST2025283-265.7549.31657.53300.027559070.027559070.010.03755907FF33.75-17.25190432.6863157642500.649572005785341631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-02 08:00:03FORECAST2025283-265.53448.93857.23600.0259842660.02598426600.025984266FF33.534-20.466190432.6863157642500.642359175907551631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-02 04:00:05FORECAST2025283-265.53448.93857.236NAN0.0259842660.02598426600.025984266FF33.534-21.466190NANNAN0.642359175907551631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-02 00:00:03FORECAST2025283-267.71247.73257.72200000FF35.71230.712190432.6863157642500.712371504496861641115215DRYL
2025-07-01 20:00:03FORECAST2025283-266.84847.64257.24500000FF34.84823.848190432.6863157642500.685363094794781631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-01 16:00:02FORECAST2025283-267.22648.05657.64100000FF35.22624.226190432.6863157642500.697313279917271631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-01 12:00:03FORECAST2025283-268.57646.99457.78500.023622060.023622060.010.03362206FF36.57623.576190432.6863157642500.738232807128851641115130DRYL
2025-07-01 08:00:03FORECAST2025283-268.57646.99457.78500.0295275750.02952757500.029527575FF36.57626.576190432.6863157642500.738232807128851641115130DRYL
2025-07-01 04:00:04FORECAST2025283-264.68849.1956.939NAN0.0295275750.02952757500.029527575FF32.68828.688190NANNAN0.613638707970211631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-01 00:00:03FORECAST2025283-257.12849.94653.537000.0200.02FF25.12893.128190432.6863157642500.34829081739781621115210DRYL
2025-06-30 20:00:03FORECAST2025283-257.12849.94653.537000.0200.02FF25.12898.128190432.6863157642500.34829081739781621115210DRYL
2025-06-30 16:00:03FORECAST2025283-248.95644.40246.679000.0200.02FF16.95686.956190432.6863157642500.13052496475903161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-30 12:00:03FORECAST2025283-249.87444.92447.3990000.050.05FF17.87491.874190432.6863157642500.14884229856529161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-30 08:00:03FORECAST2025283-249.87444.92447.3990000.070.07FF17.87490.874190432.6863157642500.14884229856529161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-30 04:00:05FORECAST2025283-242.29642.1742.233NAN00.020.060.08FF10.29672.296190NANNAN0.042416353442794161111527.5DRYL