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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, July 9, 2025

[ Tuesday, July 8, 2025 | Index | Today | Thursday, July 10, 2025 ]

DAY 282 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/08/2025 12:00:01 PM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 51.30°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 43.83°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 47.56°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.143
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 19
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -386

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.09 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.09 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.37 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.46 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 189
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 432.06 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -3

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-07-08 12:00:01FORECAST2025282-351.29643.82647.56100.0854331170.0854331170.370.455433117FF19.296-385.704189432.0573094089800.1429814145344161111527.5DRYL
2025-07-08 08:00:02FORECAST2025282-351.85443.89847.87600.1019685590.1019685590.370.471968559FF19.854-384.146189432.0573094089800.155947839996031611125215DRYL
2025-07-08 04:00:03FORECAST2025282-351.56643.77247.66900.0952756420.0952756420.370.465275642FF19.566-385.434189432.0573094089800.14916193501351611125215DRYL
2025-07-08 00:00:02FORECAST2025282-351.36844.3347.84900.0850394160.0850394160.370.455039416FF19.368-389.632189432.0573094089800.14461242471148161111527.5DRYL
2025-07-07 20:00:02FORECAST2025282-351.22444.20447.71400.082677210.082677210.370.45267721FF19.224-390.776189432.0573094089800.14136284536312161111527.5DRYL
2025-07-07 16:00:01FORECAST2025282-351.09844.6947.89400.1118110840.1118110840.370.481811084FF19.098-390.902189432.0573094089800.138560248941471611125215DRYL
2025-07-07 12:00:02FORECAST2025282-351.63844.52848.08300.0925197350.0925197350.370.462519735FF19.638-390.362189432.0573094089800.150839684767731611125215DRYL
2025-07-07 11:20:57FORECAST2025282-351.63844.52848.08300.0925197350.0925197350.370.462519735FF19.638-390.362189432.0573094089800.150839684767731611125215DRYL
2025-07-07 08:00:02FORECAST2025282-351.4444.04247.74100.0700787780.07007877800.070078778FF19.44-389.56189432.0573094089800.14625588663304161111527.5DRYL
2025-07-07 04:00:03FORECAST2025282-352.23243.6147.921NAN0.0744094890.07440948900.074409489FF20.232-389.768189NANNAN0.16515763201861161111527.5DRYL
2025-07-07 00:00:02FORECAST2025282-351.81843.08847.45300.0929134360.09291343600.092913436FF19.818-328.182189432.0573094089800.155088675050741611125215DRYL
2025-07-06 20:00:02FORECAST2025282-351.1742.94447.05700.0881890240.08818902400.088189024FF19.17-329.83189432.0573094089800.14015707576368161111527.5DRYL
2025-07-06 16:00:02FORECAST2025282-352.0743.30447.68700.1015748580.10157485800.101574858FF20.07-329.93189432.0573094089800.161168418452511611125215DRYL
2025-07-06 12:00:02FORECAST2025282-353.65442.04447.84900.0937008380.09370083800.093700838FF21.654-327.346189432.0573094089800.202871383082511611125215DRYL
2025-07-06 08:00:02FORECAST2025282-354.53642.99848.76700.0925197350.09251973500.092519735FF22.536-323.464189432.0573094089800.228647783233341611125215DRYL
2025-07-06 04:00:03FORECAST2025282-353.11443.32248.218NAN0.0763779940.07637799400.076377994FF21.114-324.886189NANNAN0.18798269867314161111527.5DRYL
2025-07-06 00:00:03FORECAST2025282-353.2444.72648.98300.0338582860.03385828600.033858286FF21.24-269.76189432.0573094089800.19139510939225161111527.5DRYL
2025-07-05 20:00:02FORECAST2025282-355.43644.61850.02700.0318897810.03188978100.031889781FF23.436-265.564189432.0573094089800.256743267072971621115210DRYL
2025-07-05 16:00:02FORECAST2025282-356.35445.78851.07100.0452756150.04527561500.045275615FF24.354-264.646189432.0573094089800.287146799945851621115210DRYL
2025-07-05 12:00:02FORECAST2025282-361.59248.09254.84200.0649606650.06496066500.064960665FF29.592-256.408189432.0573094089800.484571788453611621115210DRYL
2025-07-05 08:00:02FORECAST2025282-362.34847.37254.8600.0649606650.06496066500.064960665FF30.348-254.652189432.0573094089800.514681289491261631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-05 04:00:04FORECAST2025282-358.58647.0352.808NAN0.0661417680.06614176800.066141768FF26.586-257.414189NANNAN0.367360991240121621115210DRYL
2025-07-05 00:00:03FORECAST2025282-357.90245.66251.78200.0228346580.02283465800.022834658FF25.902-207.098189432.0573094089800.341947485189021621115210DRYL
2025-07-04 20:00:03FORECAST2025282-355.97644.40250.18900.0228346580.02283465800.022834658FF23.976-212.024189432.0573094089800.274423476921531621115210DRYL
2025-07-04 16:00:02FORECAST2025282-356.0344.13250.08100.0381889970.03818899700.038188997FF24.03-210.97189432.0573094089800.276223954553361621115210DRYL
2025-07-04 12:00:02FORECAST2025282-356.13845.26650.70200.0448819140.04488191400.044881914FF24.138-207.862189432.0573094089800.279842188178981621115210DRYL
2025-07-04 08:00:02FORECAST2025282-359.55847.78653.67200.0476378210.04763782100.047637821FF27.558-210.442189432.0573094089800.404471409165241621115210DRYL
2025-07-04 04:00:05FORECAST2025282-361.82649.08255.454NAN0.0019685050.00196850500.001968505FF29.826-204.174189NANNAN0.493890004224041621115210DRYL
2025-07-04 00:00:03FORECAST2025282-362.85250.7256.78600.0003937010.0003937010.030.030393701FF30.852-149.148189432.0573094089800.534718440983571631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-03 20:00:02FORECAST2025282-362.83450.68456.75900.0003937010.0003937010.030.030393701FF30.834-149.166189432.0573094089800.534004039036271631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-03 16:00:02FORECAST2025282-364.00450.64857.32600.0011811030.0011811030.060.061181103FF32.004-143.996189432.0573094089800.580108386497441631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-03 12:00:03FORECAST2025282-366.41650.55858.487000.010.060.07FF34.416-141.584189432.0573094089800.671126903583831631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-03 08:00:02FORECAST2025282-368.10853.18660.647000.010.060.07FF36.108-138.892189432.0573094089800.729729804225031641115130DRYL
2025-07-03 04:00:05FORECAST2025282-368.73853.38461.061NAN000.040.04FF36.738-136.262189NANNAN0.750135066761131641115130DRYL
2025-07-03 00:00:03FORECAST2025282-369.29652.3460.81800.0413386050.04133860500.041338605FF37.296-87.704189432.0573094089800.76750236822891641115130DRYL
2025-07-02 20:00:02FORECAST2025282-372.26652.41262.33900.0413386050.04133860500.041338605FF40.266-82.734189432.0573094089800.847875869534411641115130DRYL
2025-07-02 16:00:03FORECAST2025282-373.3154.48263.89600.0122047310.0122047310.090.102204731FF41.31-86.69189432.0573094089800.87112347145031651115135DRYL
2025-07-02 12:00:03FORECAST2025282-373.92253.4263.6710000.010.01FF41.922-83.078189432.0573094089800.883547007753071651115135DRYL
2025-07-02 08:00:03FORECAST2025282-373.00452.66462.83400000FF41.004-85.996189432.0573094089800.864579611921761651115135DRYL
2025-07-02 04:00:05FORECAST2025282-373.00452.66462.834NAN0000FF41.004-86.996189NANNAN0.864579611921761651115135DRYL
2025-07-02 00:00:02FORECAST2025282-368.34248.8358.58600000FF36.342-36.658189432.0573094089800.737404957569821641115130DRYL
2025-07-01 20:00:03FORECAST2025282-36848.07458.03700000FF36-43189432.0573094089800.72615002546771641115130DRYL
2025-07-01 16:00:02FORECAST2025282-368.12647.9358.02800000FF36.126-42.874189432.0573094089800.730324154126611641115130DRYL
2025-07-01 12:00:03FORECAST2025282-364.32848.36256.3450000.010.01FF32.328-44.672189432.0573094089800.59271099252521631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-01 08:00:03FORECAST2025282-364.32848.36256.34500000FF32.328-41.672189432.0573094089800.59271099252521631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-01 04:00:04FORECAST2025282-366.86650.86458.865NAN0000FF34.866-36.134189NANNAN0.687212415092691631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-01 00:00:03FORECAST2025282-366.05652.82659.44100.0098425250.01984252500.019842525FF34.05636.056189432.0573094089800.658024540113071631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-30 20:00:03FORECAST2025282-366.05652.82659.44100.0098425250.01984252500.019842525FF34.05641.056189432.0573094089800.658024540113071631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-30 16:00:03FORECAST2025282-362.54647.354.92300.0094488240.01944882400.019448824FF30.54637.546189432.0573094089800.522560264781181631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-30 12:00:03FORECAST2025282-373.0448.72260.8810000.050.05FF41.0442.04189432.0573094089800.865361051770511651115135DRYL
2025-06-30 08:00:03FORECAST2025282-373.0448.72260.8810000.070.07FF41.0441.04189432.0573094089800.865361051770511651115135DRYL
2025-06-30 04:00:05FORECAST2025282-361.95243.2552.601NAN00.020.060.08FF29.95229.952189NANNAN0.498909210711391621115210DRYL
2025-06-30 00:00:03FORECAST2025282-350.4537.56244.00600000FF18.4585.45189432.0573094089800.1247449943716161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-29 20:00:03FORECAST2025282-350.4537.56244.00600000FF18.4584.45189432.0573094089800.1247449943716161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-29 16:00:03FORECAST2025282-352.9745.73449.35200000FF20.9791.97189432.0573094089800.18412901328315161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-29 12:00:05FORECAST2025282-350.79243.48447.138000.040.070.11FF18.79283.792189432.0573094089800.13191194162855161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-29 08:00:04FORECAST2025282-350.79243.48447.138000.040.070.11FF18.79282.792189432.0573094089800.13191194162855161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-29 04:00:06FORECAST2025282-346.27444.3345.302NAN00.040.070.11FF14.27481.274189NANNAN0.058270023930116161111527.5DRYL