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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, July 7, 2025

[ Sunday, July 6, 2025 | Index | Today | Tuesday, July 8, 2025 ]

DAY 280 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/08/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 71.97°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 52.43°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 62.20°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.896
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 40
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -504

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.02 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.08 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.10 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 2 in
SWE DAY: 187
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 431.72 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.94 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -5

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 4
D5: 1
HSdry: 28.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-07-08 04:00:03OBSERVATION2025280-571.9700852.4362.200042.181754166666700.021.081.1FF39.97008-504.02992187431.71559647195 0.941897301417660.8960004639857516 51114128DRYL
2025-07-08 00:00:02FORECAST2025280-567.13646.09456.615000.021.081.1FF35.136-508.864187430.79210326700.771341245900071641115215DRYL
2025-07-07 12:00:01FORECAST2025280-566.00246.00456.003000.021.081.1FF34.002-509.998187430.79210326700.733142420782491641115215DRYL
2025-07-07 11:20:56FORECAST2025280-566.00246.00456.003000.021.081.1FF34.002-509.998187430.79210326700.733142420782491641115215DRYL
2025-07-07 08:00:01FORECAST2025280-566.81246.07656.44400000FF34.812-509.188187430.79210326700.760750628138731641115215DRYL
2025-07-07 04:00:03FORECAST2025280-566.75844.11455.436NAN0000FF34.758-509.242187NANNAN0.758959872588831641115215DRYL
2025-07-07 00:00:01FORECAST2025280-567.3743.32255.34600000FF35.37-447.63187430.79210326700.778823639602691641115215DRYL
2025-07-06 20:00:02FORECAST2025280-567.40643.10655.25600000FF35.406-448.594187430.79210326700.779962236593721641115215DRYL
2025-07-06 16:00:01FORECAST2025280-567.29845.91456.60600000FF35.298-448.702187430.79210326700.776536381324811641115215DRYL
2025-07-06 12:00:01FORECAST2025280-567.6447.13857.38900000FF35.64-448.36187430.79210326700.787280829638371641115215DRYL
2025-07-06 08:00:01FORECAST2025280-568.50448.70458.60400000FF36.504-446.496187430.79210326700.813045909932061641115130DRYL
2025-07-06 04:00:03FORECAST2025280-568.70248.90258.802NAN0000FF36.702-446.298187NANNAN0.818667218250121641115130DRYL
2025-07-06 00:00:02FORECAST2025280-568.46848.61458.54100000FF36.468-389.532187430.79210326700.812012415517441641115130DRYL
2025-07-05 20:00:02FORECAST2025280-568.21648.75858.48700000FF36.216-388.784187430.79210326700.80467982275351641115130DRYL
2025-07-05 16:00:02FORECAST2025280-56848.5658.2800000FF36-389187430.79210326700.798258759257551641115130DRYL
2025-07-05 12:00:01FORECAST2025280-568.52248.9258.72100000FF36.522-387.478187430.79210326700.813561339231121641115130DRYL
2025-07-05 08:00:02FORECAST2025280-568.8148.63258.72100000FF36.81-387.19187430.79210326700.821688399122911641115130DRYL
2025-07-05 04:00:04FORECAST2025280-568.57649.04658.811NAN0000FF36.576-386.424187NANNAN0.815102350781261641115130DRYL
2025-07-05 00:00:02FORECAST2025280-568.25249.0158.63100000FF36.252-335.748187430.79210326700.805737824634041641115130DRYL
2025-07-04 20:00:02FORECAST2025280-567.24448.1157.67700000FF35.244-336.756187430.79210326700.774812158914151641115215DRYL
2025-07-04 16:00:02FORECAST2025280-567.62247.78657.70400000FF35.622-337.378187430.79210326700.786722947200451641115215DRYL
2025-07-04 12:00:02FORECAST2025280-567.51447.98457.74900000FF35.514-337.486187430.79210326700.783357817665671641115215DRYL
2025-07-04 08:00:02FORECAST2025280-566.45247.49856.97500000FF34.452-338.548187430.79210326700.74867617917711641115215DRYL
2025-07-04 04:00:05FORECAST2025280-566.93848.00257.47NAN0000FF34.938-338.062187NANNAN0.764900689329231641115215DRYL
2025-07-04 00:00:02FORECAST2025280-567.3749.40658.3880000.030.03FF35.37-283.63187430.79210326700.778823639602691641115215DRYL
2025-07-03 20:00:02FORECAST2025280-567.35248.36257.8570000.030.03FF35.352-283.648187430.79210326700.778253081774691641115215DRYL
2025-07-03 16:00:02FORECAST2025280-568.10847.08457.5960000.060.06FF36.108-279.892187430.79210326700.801484919039831641115130DRYL
2025-07-03 12:00:02FORECAST2025280-568.66647.1257.8930000.060.06FF36.666-279.334187430.79210326700.81765309314151641115130DRYL
2025-07-03 08:00:02FORECAST2025280-569.33248.27258.8020000.060.06FF37.332-277.668187430.79210326700.835841017644811641115130DRYL
2025-07-03 04:00:04FORECAST2025280-569.42248.21858.82NAN000.040.04FF37.422-276.578187NANNAN0.838205591127661641115130DRYL
2025-07-03 00:00:02FORECAST2025280-565.2144.79855.00400000FF33.21-227.79187430.79210326700.704675475091091641115215DRYL
2025-07-02 20:00:02FORECAST2025280-565.69643.80854.75200000FF33.696-226.304187430.79210326700.722309527525751641115215DRYL
2025-07-02 16:00:03FORECAST2025280-564.32842.87253.60000.090.09FF32.328-229.672187430.79210326700.671426149466361631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-02 12:00:02FORECAST2025280-563.51842.6253.0690000.010.01FF31.518-226.482187430.79210326700.639638566041291631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-02 08:00:02FORECAST2025280-564.41841.73853.07800000FF32.418-227.582187430.79210326700.674887804844091631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-02 04:00:05FORECAST2025280-564.41841.64853.033NAN0000FF32.418-228.582187NANNAN0.674887804844091631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-02 00:00:02FORECAST2025280-561.37642.09851.73700000FF29.376-170.624187430.79210326700.55136805684111631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-01 20:00:02FORECAST2025280-560.13441.8150.97200000FF28.134-175.866187430.79210326700.498683641929361621115210DRYL
2025-07-01 16:00:02FORECAST2025280-560.2641.55850.90900000FF28.26-175.74187430.79210326700.504042849998581631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-01 12:00:03FORECAST2025280-561.19643.32252.2590000.010.01FF29.196-176.804187430.79210326700.54376654830871631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-01 08:00:03FORECAST2025280-563.75244.0653.90600000FF31.752-175.248187430.79210326700.648933095695221631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-01 04:00:04FORECAST2025280-565.01244.74454.878NAN0000FF33.012-172.988187NANNAN0.697346561529591631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-01 00:00:02FORECAST2025280-565.33646.50855.92200000FF33.336-98.664187430.79210326700.709296430328431641115215DRYL
2025-06-30 20:00:02FORECAST2025280-566.27247.7557.01100000FF34.272-93.728187430.79210326700.74252048737411641115215DRYL
2025-06-30 16:00:03FORECAST2025280-567.11847.62457.37100000FF35.118-89.882187430.79210326700.770759858688971641115215DRYL
2025-06-30 12:00:03FORECAST2025280-566.63245.69856.1650000.050.05FF34.632-100.368187430.79210326700.75475329264891641115215DRYL
2025-06-30 08:00:02FORECAST2025280-567.20842.1754.6890000.070.07FF35.208-100.792187430.79210326700.773658510401281641115215DRYL
2025-06-30 04:00:04FORECAST2025280-566.90243.19655.049NAN000.060.06FF34.902-100.098187NANNAN0.763719024483861641115215DRYL
2025-06-30 00:00:03FORECAST2025280-560.60241.43251.01700000FF28.602-30.398187430.79210326700.518582810422311631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-29 20:00:02FORECAST2025280-560.60241.43251.01700000FF28.602-31.398187430.79210326700.518582810422311631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-29 16:00:03FORECAST2025280-563.89642.60253.24900000FF31.896-29.104187430.79210326700.654609273341551631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-29 12:00:04FORECAST2025280-553.2435.94244.591000.0700.07FF21.24-36.76187430.79210326700.23014950347719161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-29 08:00:04FORECAST2025280-553.2435.94244.591000.0700.07FF21.24-37.76187430.79210326700.23014950347719161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-29 04:00:05FORECAST2025280-554.93236.30245.617NAN00.0700.07FF22.932-35.068187NANNAN0.288445988914041621115210DRYL
2025-06-29 00:00:03FORECAST2025280-548.50637.32842.91700.0086614220.18866142200.188661422FF16.5069.506187430.79210326700.106846211261271611125215DRYL
2025-06-28 20:00:03FORECAST2025280-548.50637.32842.91700.0086614220.18866142200.188661422FF16.50619.506187430.79210326700.106846211261271611125215DRYL
2025-06-28 16:00:03FORECAST2025280-547.0336.75241.89100.0074803190.16748031900.167480319FF15.0312.03187430.79210326700.0805859109295151611125215DRYL
2025-06-28 12:00:03FORECAST2025280-560.49438.7549.62200000FF28.49437.494187430.79210326700.513992996703031631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-28 08:00:03FORECAST2025280-560.49438.7549.62200000FF28.49429.494187430.79210326700.513992996703031631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-28 04:00:04FORECAST2025280-562.99638.85850.927NAN00.0200.02FF30.99633.996187NANNAN0.618612313525321631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-28 00:00:03FORECAST2025280-545.48238.28241.88200.0011811030.0011811030.030.031181103FF13.48266.482187430.79210326700.058601255328496161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-27 20:00:04FORECAST2025280-545.51840.33442.92600.0011811030.0011811030.040.041181103FF13.51871.518187430.79210326700.059052838547298161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-27 16:00:03FORECAST2025280-543.41239.0241.21600.0011811030.0011811030.030.031181103FF11.41269.412187430.79210326700.036877023942204161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-27 12:00:03FORECAST2025280-547.69642.45845.0770000.030.03FF15.69677.696187430.79210326700.091761421743709161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-27 08:00:04FORECAST2025280-547.69642.45845.0770000.020.02FF15.69681.696187430.79210326700.091761421743709161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-27 04:00:04FORECAST2025280-545.35643.10644.231NAN000.030.03FF13.35686.356187NANNAN0.057041964483084161111527.5DRYL