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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, July 6, 2025

[ Saturday, July 5, 2025 | Index | Today | Monday, July 7, 2025 ]

DAY 279 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/07/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 0.00°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 0.00°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 0.00°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.000
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -32
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -576

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.02 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.37 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.10 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 186
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 0.00 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -6

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-07-07 04:00:02OBSERVATION2025279-60NAN0000FF-32-576186NAN NAN1.2124505566202E-816 1111527.5DRYL
2025-07-07 00:00:01FORECAST2025279-660.7139.86650.28800000FF28.71-515.29186430.1558852106900.575178188687821631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-06 12:00:01FORECAST2025279-660.4440.22650.33300000FF28.44-515.56186430.1558852106900.565120101613831631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-06 08:00:01FORECAST2025279-661.3440.6450.9900000FF29.34-514.66186430.1558852106900.598446798255921631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-06 04:00:03FORECAST2025279-661.41240.35250.882NAN0000FF29.412-514.588186NANNAN0.601085620333271631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-06 00:00:02FORECAST2025279-661.91640.02850.97200000FF29.916-458.084186430.1558852106900.619421899778711631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-05 20:00:02FORECAST2025279-662.27641.2751.77300000FF30.276-456.724186430.1558852106900.632359560895791631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-05 16:00:01FORECAST2025279-661.91641.6351.77300000FF29.916-457.084186430.1558852106900.619421899778711631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-05 12:00:01FORECAST2025279-662.642.8952.74500000FF30.6-456.4186430.1558852106900.643876921076941631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-05 08:00:01FORECAST2025279-662.52842.9852.75400000FF30.528-456.472186430.1558852106900.641328390559121631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-05 04:00:04FORECAST2025279-662.63643.3452.988NAN0000FF30.636-455.364186NANNAN0.645148789622471631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-05 00:00:02FORECAST2025279-662.47443.37652.92500000FF30.474-403.526186430.1558852106900.639412849066921631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-04 20:00:02FORECAST2025279-661.46642.74652.10600000FF29.466-403.534186430.1558852106900.603061717149531631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-04 16:00:02FORECAST2025279-661.19643.08852.14200000FF29.196-404.804186430.1558852106900.593155782016171631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-04 12:00:01FORECAST2025279-661.48442.94452.21400000FF29.484-404.516186430.1558852106900.603719831341741631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-04 08:00:02FORECAST2025279-660.99842.5351.76400000FF28.998-405.002186430.1558852106900.585852978500261631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-04 04:00:05FORECAST2025279-661.32242.60251.962NAN0000FF29.322-404.678186NANNAN0.59778638573461631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-04 00:00:02FORECAST2025279-661.7943.50252.646000.0300.03FF29.79-351.21186430.1558852106900.614861137274091631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-03 20:00:01FORECAST2025279-661.71843.48452.601000.0300.03FF29.718-351.282186430.1558852106900.612247792640971631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-03 16:00:02FORECAST2025279-662.20443.05252.628000.0600.06FF30.204-347.796186430.1558852106900.629783477891271631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-03 12:00:02FORECAST2025279-662.00642.96252.484000.0600.06FF30.006-347.994186430.1558852106900.622669499924331631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-03 08:00:01FORECAST2025279-662.25842.92652.592000.0600.06FF30.258-346.742186430.1558852106900.631716092767921631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-03 04:00:04FORECAST2025279-662.63643.2552.943NAN00.0400.04FF30.636-346.364186NANNAN0.645148789622471631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-03 00:00:02FORECAST2025279-659.32442.47650.900000FF27.324-292.676186430.1558852106900.523169834801521631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-02 20:00:02FORECAST2025279-658.94641.77450.3600000FF26.946-292.054186430.1558852106900.508878728069191631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-02 16:00:02FORECAST2025279-657.7441.57649.658000.0900.09FF25.74-294.26186430.1558852106900.46329668881851621115210DRYL
2025-07-02 12:00:02FORECAST2025279-658.87441.70250.288000.0100.01FF26.874-290.126186430.1558852106900.50615475706311631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-02 08:00:02FORECAST2025279-657.50641.82849.66700000FF25.506-292.494186430.1558852106900.45448942440841621115210DRYL
2025-07-02 04:00:04FORECAST2025279-657.0241.88249.451NAN0000FF25.02-292.98186NANNAN0.436273608273021621115210DRYL
2025-07-02 00:00:02FORECAST2025279-655.9440.92848.43400.0007874020.00078740200.000787402FF23.94-232.06186430.1558852106900.396328405277821621115210DRYL
2025-07-01 20:00:02FORECAST2025279-655.77840.29848.03800.0007874020.00078740200.000787402FF23.778-236.222186430.1558852106900.390418681600541621115210DRYL
2025-07-01 16:00:02FORECAST2025279-655.25640.22647.74100.0007874020.00078740200.000787402FF23.256-235.744186430.1558852106900.371554078810461621115210DRYL
2025-07-01 12:00:02FORECAST2025279-655.25639.52447.39000.0100.01FF23.256-237.744186430.1558852106900.371554078810461621115210DRYL
2025-07-01 08:00:02FORECAST2025279-655.0439.05647.04800000FF23.04-238.96186430.1558852106900.363834478026431621115210DRYL
2025-07-01 04:00:03FORECAST2025279-656.22839.12847.678NAN0000FF24.228-237.772186NANNAN0.406892784098861621115210DRYL
2025-07-01 00:00:02FORECAST2025279-659.07240.6449.85600000FF27.072-163.928186430.1558852106900.513644604749471631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-30 20:00:02FORECAST2025279-660.8940.40650.64800000FF28.89-160.11186430.1558852106900.581856913217911631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-30 16:00:03FORECAST2025279-661.37641.97251.67400000FF29.376-156.624186430.1558852106900.599766778497571631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-30 12:00:03FORECAST2025279-657.88438.19248.038000.010.040.05FF25.884-167.116186430.1558852106900.468725778478491621115210DRYL
2025-06-30 08:00:02FORECAST2025279-654.17637.74245.959000.010.060.07FF22.176-167.824186430.1558852106900.333532249350721621115210DRYL
2025-06-30 04:00:04FORECAST2025279-654.78838.3946.589NAN00.010.050.06FF22.788-167.212186NANNAN0.354897802554711621115210DRYL
2025-06-30 00:00:03FORECAST2025279-658.26240.40649.33400000FF26.262-90.738186430.1558852106900.483002238017611621115210DRYL
2025-06-29 20:00:02FORECAST2025279-658.26240.6449.45100000FF26.262-91.738186430.1558852106900.483002238017611621115210DRYL
2025-06-29 16:00:03FORECAST2025279-658.17240.83849.50500000FF26.172-92.828186430.1558852106900.479600414937851621115210DRYL
2025-06-29 12:00:04FORECAST2025279-652.5239.34445.93200.0653543660.06535436600.065354366FF20.52-90.48186430.1558852106900.278513875996391621115210DRYL
2025-06-29 08:00:04FORECAST2025279-650.1839.34444.76200.0653543660.06535436600.065354366FF18.18-90.82186430.1558852106900.20918330671882161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-29 04:00:05FORECAST2025279-650.4539.66845.059NAN0.0653543660.06535436600.065354366FF18.45-89.55186NANNAN0.21662562226802161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-29 00:00:03FORECAST2025279-651.02639.93845.48200.1818898620.18188986200.181889862FF19.026-38.974186430.1558852106900.233003410509531611125215DRYL
2025-06-28 20:00:02FORECAST2025279-651.02639.93845.48200.1818898620.18188986200.181889862FF19.026-28.974186430.1558852106900.233003410509531611125215DRYL
2025-06-28 16:00:03FORECAST2025279-650.28839.63244.9600.1559055960.15590559600.155905596FF18.288-34.712186430.1558852106900.21214203943211611125215DRYL
2025-06-28 12:00:03FORECAST2025279-652.89839.21846.05800000FF20.898-23.102186430.1558852106900.290677932057581621115210DRYL
2025-06-28 08:00:03FORECAST2025279-652.89839.21846.05800000FF20.898-31.102186430.1558852106900.290677932057581621115210DRYL
2025-06-28 04:00:04FORECAST2025279-651.94438.5745.257NAN00.0200.02FF19.944-29.056186NANNAN0.260468230356191621115210DRYL
2025-06-28 00:00:03FORECAST2025279-653.38439.00246.1930000.030.03FF21.38421.384186430.1558852106900.306672349051811621115210DRYL
2025-06-27 20:00:03FORECAST2025279-655.90440.87448.3890000.040.04FF23.90425.904186430.1558852106900.395013021171611621115210DRYL
2025-06-27 16:00:03FORECAST2025279-655.27440.85648.0650000.030.03FF23.27426.274186430.1558852106900.372199765486731621115210DRYL
2025-06-27 12:00:03FORECAST2025279-658.89240.83849.8650000.030.03FF26.89229.892186430.1558852106900.506835781684221631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-27 08:00:03FORECAST2025279-658.89240.83849.8650000.020.02FF26.89233.892186430.1558852106900.506835781684221631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-27 04:00:04FORECAST2025279-661.32239.8350.576NAN000.030.03FF29.32241.322186NANNAN0.59778638573461631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-27 00:00:03FORECAST2025279-646.9441.16244.0510000.070.07FF14.9467.94186430.1558852106900.13204383890337161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-26 20:00:03FORECAST2025279-642.58438.9340.7570000.070.07FF10.58452.584186430.1558852106900.062915890415928161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-26 16:00:03FORECAST2025279-648.241.84645.0230000.040.04FF16.272.2186430.1558852106900.15934309414171161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-26 12:00:03FORECAST2025279-638.69633.20635.95100.2448820220.4948820220.060.554882022FF6.69652.696186430.1558852106900.0286534131070681611135222.5DRYL
2025-06-26 08:00:03FORECAST2025279-638.69633.20635.95100.2448820220.4948820220.050.544882022FF6.69656.696186430.1558852106900.0286534131070681611135222.5DRYL
2025-06-26 04:00:05FORECAST2025279-642.38640.92841.657NAN00.120.040.16FF10.38692.386186NANNAN0.0606207671441751611125215DRYL