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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, July 5, 2025

[ Friday, July 4, 2025 | Index | Today | Sunday, July 6, 2025 ]

DAY 278 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/06/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 0.00°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 0.00°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 0.00°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.000
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -32
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -576

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.02 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.02 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.90 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.10 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 185
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 0.00 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -7

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-07-06 04:00:02OBSERVATION2025278-70NAN0000FF-32-576185NAN NAN1.623697637454E-816 1111527.5DRYL
2025-07-06 00:00:02FORECAST2025278-756.0338.10247.06600000FF24.03-519.97185429.5172449264500.404747015573551621115210DRYL
2025-07-05 12:00:01FORECAST2025278-756.53438.40847.47100000FF24.534-519.466185429.5172449264500.423238147005681621115210DRYL
2025-07-05 08:00:01FORECAST2025278-756.5738.19247.38100000FF24.57-519.43185429.5172449264500.424565949198671621115210DRYL
2025-07-05 04:00:03FORECAST2025278-757.75837.07647.417NAN0000FF25.758-518.242185NANNAN0.468774597916241621115210DRYL
2025-07-05 00:00:02FORECAST2025278-758.13638.06648.10100000FF26.136-465.864185429.5172449264500.482948898779211621115210DRYL
2025-07-04 20:00:01FORECAST2025278-758.06438.85848.46100000FF26.064-464.936185429.5172449264500.480246818957791621115210DRYL
2025-07-04 16:00:02FORECAST2025278-757.1139.41648.26300000FF25.11-465.89185429.5172449264500.444577462227541621115210DRYL
2025-07-04 12:00:01FORECAST2025278-757.18239.77648.47900000FF25.182-465.818185429.5172449264500.447257527154281621115210DRYL
2025-07-04 08:00:01FORECAST2025278-756.7538.94847.84900000FF24.75-466.25185429.5172449264500.431217512143361621115210DRYL
2025-07-04 04:00:04FORECAST2025278-757.05639.32648.191NAN0000FF25.056-465.944185NANNAN0.44256906807821621115210DRYL
2025-07-04 00:00:02FORECAST2025278-757.239.248.2000.0300.03FF25.2-412.8185429.5172449264500.447927924735521621115210DRYL
2025-07-03 20:00:01FORECAST2025278-756.91239.25448.083000.0300.03FF24.912-413.088185429.5172449264500.437220697933071621115210DRYL
2025-07-03 16:00:02FORECAST2025278-758.0139.90248.956000.0600.06FF26.01-409.99185429.5172449264500.478220847766671621115210DRYL
2025-07-03 12:00:02FORECAST2025278-757.70439.9248.81200.0003937010.06039370100.060393701FF25.704-410.296185429.5172449264500.466752504408871621115210DRYL
2025-07-03 08:00:01FORECAST2025278-758.0139.95648.98300.0011811030.06118110300.061181103FF26.01-408.99185429.5172449264500.478220847766671621115210DRYL
2025-07-03 04:00:04FORECAST2025278-758.06439.93849.001NAN00.0400.04FF26.064-408.936185NANNAN0.480246818957791621115210DRYL
2025-07-03 00:00:02FORECAST2025278-757.1139.84848.47900000FF25.11-351.89185429.5172449264500.444577462227541621115210DRYL
2025-07-02 20:00:02FORECAST2025278-757.09239.18248.13700.0011811030.00118110300.001181103FF25.092-350.908185429.5172449264500.443907836791211621115210DRYL
2025-07-02 16:00:02FORECAST2025278-756.9338.7547.8400.0023622060.09236220600.092362206FF24.93-352.07185429.5172449264500.437888637824541621125220DRYL
2025-07-02 12:00:02FORECAST2025278-756.98438.8447.912000.0100.01FF24.984-349.016185429.5172449264500.439893512005021621115210DRYL
2025-07-02 08:00:02FORECAST2025278-756.26438.46247.36300000FF24.264-349.736185429.5172449264500.41330840814811621115210DRYL
2025-07-02 04:00:04FORECAST2025278-756.15638.51647.336NAN0000FF24.156-349.844185NANNAN0.409351610289161621115210DRYL
2025-07-02 00:00:02FORECAST2025278-754.53637.3145.92300000FF22.536-288.464185429.5172449264500.351315176273721621115210DRYL
2025-07-01 20:00:02FORECAST2025278-753.31236.60844.9600000FF21.312-291.688185429.5172449264500.309579718165251621115210DRYL
2025-07-01 16:00:02FORECAST2025278-752.736.3244.5100000FF20.7-291.3185429.5172449264500.289557170784311621115210DRYL
2025-07-01 12:00:02FORECAST2025278-751.99836.55444.276000.0100.01FF19.998-293.002185429.5172449264500.267367530176891621115210DRYL
2025-07-01 08:00:02FORECAST2025278-751.51236.8644.18600000FF19.512-294.488185429.5172449264500.25252396139141621115210DRYL
2025-07-01 04:00:03FORECAST2025278-751.45837.5844.519NAN0000FF19.458-293.542185NANNAN0.250901857996161621115210DRYL
2025-07-01 00:00:02FORECAST2025278-752.89837.32845.11300000FF20.898-223.102185429.5172449264500.295968407852311621115210DRYL
2025-06-30 20:00:02FORECAST2025278-753.43837.07645.25700000FF21.438-220.562185429.5172449264500.313775830915581621115210DRYL
2025-06-30 16:00:03FORECAST2025278-754.03238.58846.3100000FF22.032-217.968185429.5172449264500.33387583742681621115210DRYL
2025-06-30 12:00:03FORECAST2025278-750.0936.33843.214000.0500.05FF18.09-224.91185429.5172449264500.21170677929831161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-30 08:00:02FORECAST2025278-749.65837.43643.547000.0700.07FF17.658-222.342185429.5172449264500.20011508229363161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-30 04:00:04FORECAST2025278-750.16237.4943.826NAN00.0600.06FF18.162-221.838185NANNAN0.2136761589443161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-30 00:00:03FORECAST2025278-753.92439.8346.87700000FF21.924-149.076185429.5172449264500.330183479496361621115210DRYL
2025-06-29 20:00:02FORECAST2025278-753.83440.1947.01200000FF21.834-150.166185429.5172449264500.327119070075241621115210DRYL
2025-06-29 16:00:03FORECAST2025278-753.70840.1946.94900000FF21.708-151.292185429.5172449264500.322848428091771621115210DRYL
2025-06-29 12:00:03FORECAST2025278-754.51841.73848.12800000FF22.518-143.482185429.5172449264500.350686654835851621115210DRYL
2025-06-29 08:00:04FORECAST2025278-755.29241.3648.32600000FF23.292-140.708185429.5172449264500.378060854083471621115210DRYL
2025-06-29 04:00:05FORECAST2025278-756.31841.23448.776NAN0000FF24.318-139.682185NANNAN0.415290140096931621115210DRYL
2025-06-29 00:00:02FORECAST2025278-756.31841.32448.82100000FF24.318-89.682185429.5172449264500.415290140096931621115210DRYL
2025-06-28 20:00:02FORECAST2025278-756.40842.27849.34300000FF24.408-79.592185429.5172449264500.418597795777431621115210DRYL
2025-06-28 16:00:02FORECAST2025278-756.04842.1749.10900000FF24.048-84.952185429.5172449264500.405404023944371621115210DRYL
2025-06-28 12:00:03FORECAST2025278-756.7543.4350.0900000FF24.75-76.25185429.5172449264500.431217512143361621115210DRYL
2025-06-28 08:00:03FORECAST2025278-757.09243.4350.26100000FF25.092-83.908185429.5172449264500.443907836791211621115210DRYL
2025-06-28 04:00:04FORECAST2025278-753.74441.48647.615NAN0.0216535550.02165355500.021653555FF21.744-81.256185NANNAN0.324066263109151621115210DRYL
2025-06-28 00:00:03FORECAST2025278-755.70642.15248.9290000.030.03FF23.706-32.294185429.5172449264500.392968467969291621115210DRYL
2025-06-27 20:00:03FORECAST2025278-758.08242.69250.3870000.040.04FF26.082-29.918185429.5172449264500.480922258688891621115210DRYL
2025-06-27 16:00:03FORECAST2025278-758.1943.32250.7560000.030.03FF26.19-28.81185429.5172449264500.4849759795331621115210DRYL
2025-06-27 12:00:03FORECAST2025278-756.67843.41250.0450000.030.03FF24.678-29.322185429.5172449264500.428554435600271621115210DRYL
2025-06-27 08:00:03FORECAST2025278-756.67843.41250.0450000.020.02FF24.678-25.322185429.5172449264500.428554435600271621115210DRYL
2025-06-27 04:00:04FORECAST2025278-760.20643.89852.052NAN000.030.03FF28.206-19.794185NANNAN0.560477878867721631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-27 00:00:03FORECAST2025278-760.06246.29253.1770000.070.07FF28.06221.062185429.5172449264500.555124875573111631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-26 20:00:02FORECAST2025278-758.65843.82651.2420000.070.07FF26.6589.658185429.5172449264500.502554670039131631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-26 16:00:03FORECAST2025278-762.56445.60854.0860000.040.04FF30.56423.564185429.5172449264500.64588649646621631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-26 12:00:03FORECAST2025278-751.31439.9245.61700.2452757230.2452757230.060.305275723FF19.31414.314185429.5172449264500.246603315471631611125215DRYL
2025-06-26 08:00:03FORECAST2025278-751.31439.9245.61700.2452757230.2452757230.050.295275723FF19.31418.314185429.5172449264500.246603315471631611125215DRYL
2025-06-26 04:00:04FORECAST2025278-761.93443.66452.799NAN0.0228346580.1228346580.040.162834658FF29.93449.934185NANNAN0.623584848852831631125225DRYL
2025-06-26 00:00:03FORECAST2025278-748.27241.3644.81600.0066929170.0066929170.040.046692917FF16.27278.272185429.5172449264500.16557464945055161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-25 20:00:03FORECAST2025278-748.27241.3644.81600.0066929170.0066929170.030.036692917FF16.27275.272185429.5172449264500.16557464945055161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-25 16:00:03FORECAST2025278-747.80434.95241.37800.0066929170.0066929170.120.126692917FF15.80480.804185429.5172449264500.15483704205845161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-25 12:00:03FORECAST2025278-758.35246.70652.529000.040.080.12FF26.35282.352185429.5172449264500.491059342290491621115210DRYL
2025-06-25 08:00:03FORECAST2025278-758.35246.70652.529000.040.060.1FF26.35282.352185429.5172449264500.491059342290491621115210DRYL
2025-06-25 04:00:05FORECAST2025278-752.01651.40451.71NAN00.040.040.08FF20.01672.016185NANNAN0.267925615509661621115210DRYL