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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, July 4, 2025

[ Thursday, July 3, 2025 | Index | Today | Saturday, July 5, 2025 ]

DAY 277 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/05/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 0.00°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 0.00°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 0.00°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.000
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -32
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -576

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.08 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.08 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 184
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 0.00 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -8

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-07-05 04:00:03OBSERVATION2025277-80NAN0000FF-32-576184NAN NAN6.1931145767247E-916 1111527.5DRYL
2025-07-05 00:00:02FORECAST2025277-851.69238.31845.00500.0011811030.00118110300.001181103FF19.692-524.308184428.876173192300.23910840990579161111527.5DRYL
2025-07-04 12:00:01FORECAST2025277-853.02438.1245.57200.0031496080.00314960800.003149608FF21.024-522.976184428.876173192300.280642646059281621115210DRYL
2025-07-04 08:00:01FORECAST2025277-852.9739.5646.26500000FF20.97-523.03184428.876173192300.278893363101781621115210DRYL
2025-07-04 04:00:04FORECAST2025277-852.739.1145.905NAN0.0027559070.00275590700.002755907FF20.7-523.3184NANNAN0.270227295574431621115210DRYL
2025-07-04 00:00:02FORECAST2025277-852.08838.58845.33800.0318897810.03188978100.031889781FF20.088-469.912184428.876173192300.251095453652441621115210DRYL
2025-07-03 20:00:01FORECAST2025277-851.69238.55245.12200.0251968640.02519686400.025196864FF19.692-470.308184428.876173192300.23910840990579161111527.5DRYL
2025-07-03 16:00:01FORECAST2025277-854.0539.52446.78700.0555118410.05551184100.055511841FF22.05-467.95184428.876173192300.314845461625591621115210DRYL
2025-07-03 12:00:02FORECAST2025277-853.85240.58647.21900.0574803460.05748034600.057480346FF21.852-468.148184428.876173192300.308107192131411621115210DRYL
2025-07-03 08:00:01FORECAST2025277-853.31240.62246.96700.0562992430.05629924300.056299243FF21.312-466.688184428.876173192300.290060635100371621115210DRYL
2025-07-03 04:00:03FORECAST2025277-853.49240.60447.048NAN0.0366141930.03661419300.036614193FF21.492-466.508184NANNAN0.296021039187561621115210DRYL
2025-07-03 00:00:02FORECAST2025277-853.83440.58647.2100.0007874020.00078740200.000787402FF21.834-409.166184428.876173192300.307497768947861621115210DRYL
2025-07-02 20:00:01FORECAST2025277-854.06840.38847.22800.0027559070.00275590700.002755907FF22.068-407.932184428.876173192300.315461142175491621115210DRYL
2025-07-02 16:00:02FORECAST2025277-852.93440.69446.81400.0937008380.09370083800.093700838FF20.934-409.066184428.876173192300.277730125855431621125220DRYL
2025-07-02 12:00:02FORECAST2025277-855.05840.7347.89400.0114173290.01141732900.011417329FF23.058-405.942184428.876173192300.350071643171411621115210DRYL
2025-07-02 08:00:02FORECAST2025277-855.2239.54247.38100.0003937010.00039370100.000393701FF23.22-405.78184428.876173192300.355865468735041621115210DRYL
2025-07-02 04:00:04FORECAST2025277-855.25638.82247.039NAN0.0003937010.00039370100.000393701FF23.256-405.744184NANNAN0.357157573384691621115210DRYL
2025-07-02 00:00:02FORECAST2025277-852.28637.86845.07700.0019685050.00196850500.001968505FF20.286-342.714184428.876173192300.257205891119971621115210DRYL
2025-07-01 20:00:02FORECAST2025277-851.31437.1344.22200.0015748040.00157480400.001574804FF19.314-344.686184428.876173192300.22796391211968161111527.5DRYL
2025-07-01 16:00:01FORECAST2025277-852.08836.89644.49200.0015748040.00157480400.001574804FF20.088-343.912184428.876173192300.251095453652441621115210DRYL
2025-07-01 12:00:02FORECAST2025277-851.6237.02244.32100.0055118140.00551181400.005511814FF19.62-345.38184428.876173192300.23696299714053161111527.5DRYL
2025-07-01 08:00:02FORECAST2025277-850.57637.00443.7900000FF18.576-346.424184428.876173192300.20706938045428161111527.5DRYL
2025-07-01 04:00:03FORECAST2025277-851.27837.29244.285NAN0000FF19.278-344.722184NANNAN0.22691796218607161111527.5DRYL
2025-07-01 00:00:02FORECAST2025277-851.6237.36444.49200000FF19.62-276.38184428.876173192300.23696299714053161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-30 20:00:02FORECAST2025277-852.48437.27444.87900000FF20.484-273.516184428.876173192300.263392636936541621115210DRYL
2025-06-30 16:00:02FORECAST2025277-852.84437.65245.24800000FF20.844-272.156184428.876173192300.274832428943481621115210DRYL
2025-06-30 12:00:03FORECAST2025277-851.69236.6844.18600.007874020.0478740200.04787402FF19.692-275.308184428.876173192300.23910840990579161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-30 08:00:02FORECAST2025277-854.87838.15646.51700.0090551230.06905512300.069055123FF22.878-272.122184428.876173192300.343674777402661621115210DRYL
2025-06-30 04:00:04FORECAST2025277-851.74637.59844.672NAN0.007874020.0578740200.05787402FF19.746-272.254184NANNAN0.24072439982005161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-30 00:00:02FORECAST2025277-855.70638.62447.16500.0003937010.00039370100.000393701FF23.706-203.294184428.876173192300.373442805751651621115210DRYL
2025-06-29 20:00:02FORECAST2025277-855.74238.9347.33600.0003937010.00039370100.000393701FF23.742-204.258184428.876173192300.374755888980031621115210DRYL
2025-06-29 16:00:02FORECAST2025277-855.11239.8347.47100.0003937010.00039370100.000393701FF23.112-204.888184428.876173192300.35199912482591621115210DRYL
2025-06-29 12:00:03FORECAST2025277-857.14642.11649.63100000FF25.146-197.854184428.876173192300.426955190252471621115210DRYL
2025-06-29 08:00:03FORECAST2025277-856.04841.77448.91100000FF24.048-195.952184428.876173192300.385974326971761621115210DRYL
2025-06-29 04:00:05FORECAST2025277-856.37241.25248.812NAN0000FF24.372-195.628184NANNAN0.397957277079071621115210DRYL
2025-06-29 00:00:02FORECAST2025277-857.2940.11848.70400000FF25.29-145.71184428.876173192300.432399013353981621115210DRYL
2025-06-28 20:00:02FORECAST2025277-860.74640.8250.78300000FF28.746-136.254184428.876173192300.564508595418951631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-28 16:00:02FORECAST2025277-860.45842.06251.2600000FF28.458-140.542184428.876173192300.553570284211791631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-28 12:00:03FORECAST2025277-860.85443.82652.3400000FF28.854-133.146184428.876173192300.568598233356791631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-28 08:00:03FORECAST2025277-859.46843.91651.69200000FF27.468-140.532184428.876173192300.515709460451391631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-28 04:00:04FORECAST2025277-858.51443.37650.945NAN0000FF26.514-135.486184NANNAN0.479086837966641621115210DRYL
2025-06-28 00:00:03FORECAST2025277-858.98242.56650.7740000.030.03FF26.982-88.018184428.876173192300.497049788188021621115210DRYL
2025-06-27 20:00:03FORECAST2025277-858.60441.57650.09000.010.030.04FF26.604-88.396184428.876173192300.482539081104241621115210DRYL
2025-06-27 16:00:03FORECAST2025277-859.84641.7250.7830000.030.03FF27.846-87.154184428.876173192300.53020087732741631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-27 12:00:03FORECAST2025277-860.87242.5351.7010000.030.03FF28.872-86.128184428.876173192300.56927913766141631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-27 08:00:03FORECAST2025277-862.22242.96252.5920000.020.02FF30.222-81.778184428.876173192300.619623744388121631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-27 04:00:03FORECAST2025277-863.542.15252.826NAN000.030.03FF31.5-80.5184NANNAN0.665498663575721631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-27 00:00:03FORECAST2025277-860.2639.61449.9370000.070.07FF28.26-38.74184428.876173192300.546025961292671631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-26 20:00:02FORECAST2025277-859.16242.3550.7560000.070.07FF27.162-48.838184428.876173192300.503962200313981631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-26 16:00:03FORECAST2025277-862.4241.30651.8630000.040.04FF30.42-38.58184428.876173192300.626861654685921631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-26 12:00:03FORECAST2025277-861.64643.91652.7810000.060.06FF29.646-37.354184428.876173192300.598337319459091631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-26 08:00:02FORECAST2025277-861.64643.91652.7810000.050.05FF29.646-33.354184428.876173192300.598337319459091631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-26 04:00:04FORECAST2025277-870.53850.03660.287NAN0.0952756420.0952756420.040.135275642FF38.538-12.462184NANNAN0.865476439468321651125170DRYH
2025-06-26 00:00:03FORECAST2025277-863.84245.55454.6980000.040.04FF31.84229.842184428.876173192300.6773997170821631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-25 20:00:03FORECAST2025277-863.84245.55454.6980000.030.03FF31.84226.842184428.876173192300.6773997170821631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-25 16:00:03FORECAST2025277-865.22848.34456.7860000.120.12FF33.22833.228184428.876173192300.723699750812241641115215DRYL
2025-06-25 12:00:03FORECAST2025277-875.18248.36261.77200.0370078940.0370078940.080.117007894FF43.18224.182184428.876173192300.93980942020611651115135DRYL
2025-06-25 08:00:03FORECAST2025277-875.18248.2961.73600.0358267910.0358267910.060.095826791FF43.18224.182184428.876173192300.93980942020611651115135DRYL
2025-06-25 04:00:05FORECAST2025277-873.86846.56260.215NAN0.0350393890.0350393890.040.075039389FF41.86819.868184NANNAN0.923115908731841651115135DRYL
2025-06-25 00:00:03FORECAST2025277-847.13831.83839.4880000.060.06FF15.13853.138184428.876173192300.12552117935753161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-24 20:00:03FORECAST2025277-847.13831.83839.4880000.060.06FF15.13854.138184428.876173192300.12552117935753161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-24 16:00:02FORECAST2025277-851.8943.73647.8130000.060.06FF19.8958.89184428.876173192300.24506256899736161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-24 12:00:02FORECAST2025277-847.98437.59842.7910000.040.04FF15.98460.984184428.876173192300.1431446773742161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-24 08:00:03FORECAST2025277-847.98437.59842.7910000.020.02FF15.98463.984184428.876173192300.1431446773742161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-24 04:00:05FORECAST2025277-839.07437.7638.417NAN000.020.02FF7.07446.074184NANNAN0.027027131586292161111527.5DRYL