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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, July 2, 2025

[ Tuesday, July 1, 2025 | Index | Today | Thursday, July 3, 2025 ]

DAY 275 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/03/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 0.00°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 0.00°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 0.00°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.000
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -32
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -465

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.08 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.08 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 182
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 0.00 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -10

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-07-03 04:00:03OBSERVATION2025275-100NAN0000FF-32-465182NAN NAN7.3654757459796E-816 1111527.5DRYL
2025-07-03 00:00:01FORECAST2025275-1057.32642.8950.10800000FF25.326-407.674182427.5866983106800.475330356476061621115210DRYL
2025-07-02 12:00:02FORECAST2025275-1056.98443.39450.18900000FF24.984-408.016182427.5866983106800.463032496923021621115210DRYL
2025-07-02 08:00:01FORECAST2025275-1058.143.5250.8100000FF26.1-406.9182427.5866983106800.503231036256771631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-02 04:00:04FORECAST2025275-1058.24443.750.972NAN0000FF26.244-406.756182NANNAN0.5084242051361631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-02 00:00:01FORECAST2025275-1057.93842.6250.27900000FF25.938-339.062182427.5866983106800.49738811056341621115210DRYL
2025-07-01 20:00:01FORECAST2025275-1057.77642.42250.09900000FF25.776-339.224182427.5866983106800.491545745109461621115210DRYL
2025-07-01 16:00:01FORECAST2025275-1057.7442.20649.97300000FF25.74-339.26182427.5866983106800.490247643810731621115210DRYL
2025-07-01 12:00:02FORECAST2025275-1057.99242.11650.05400000FF25.992-339.008182427.5866983106800.499335752102971631115212.5DRYL
2025-07-01 08:00:02FORECAST2025275-1057.48841.88249.68500000FF25.488-338.512182427.5866983106800.481164595919421621115210DRYL
2025-07-01 04:00:03FORECAST2025275-1057.90242.2650.081NAN0000FF25.902-339.098182NANNAN0.496089714589421621115210DRYL
2025-07-01 00:00:01FORECAST2025275-1057.84841.12649.48700000FF25.848-271.152182427.5866983106800.494142202589651621115210DRYL
2025-06-30 20:00:01FORECAST2025275-1057.75841.39649.57700000FF25.758-270.242182427.5866983106800.490896682408161621115210DRYL
2025-06-30 16:00:02FORECAST2025275-1058.98242.3550.66600000FF26.982-268.018182427.5866983106800.534997838622671631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-30 12:00:02FORECAST2025275-1058.3742.38650.37800000FF26.37-269.63182427.5866983106800.512967086936291631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-30 08:00:02FORECAST2025275-1058.38842.2650.32400000FF26.388-268.612182427.5866983106800.513615946473971631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-30 04:00:03FORECAST2025275-1059.30642.1750.738NAN0000FF27.306-267.694182NANNAN0.546622178364791631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-30 00:00:02FORECAST2025275-1058.31641.82850.07200000FF26.316-201.684182427.5866983106800.511020309221171631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-29 20:00:02FORECAST2025275-1057.9242.24250.08100000FF25.92-202.08182427.5866983106800.496738908258381621115210DRYL
2025-06-29 16:00:02FORECAST2025275-1056.80441.95449.37900000FF24.804-203.196182427.5866983106800.456573353011381621115210DRYL
2025-06-29 12:00:03FORECAST2025275-1057.52443.01650.2700000FF25.524-202.476182427.5866983106800.482461685810651621115210DRYL
2025-06-29 08:00:03FORECAST2025275-1059.39644.85252.12400000FF27.396-199.604182427.5866983106800.549844515686971631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-29 04:00:04FORECAST2025275-1059.55843.98851.773NAN0000FF27.558-198.442182NANNAN0.555636309954921631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-29 00:00:02FORECAST2025275-1059.84643.64651.74600000FF27.846-146.154182427.5866983106800.5659027840151631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-28 20:00:02FORECAST2025275-1061.37645.21253.29400000FF29.376-143.624182427.5866983106800.619541893561091631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-28 16:00:02FORECAST2025275-1061.41246.56253.98700000FF29.412-146.588182427.5866983106800.620780989877271631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-28 12:00:02FORECAST2025275-1064.3147.85856.08400000FF32.31-140.69182427.5866983106800.715507453305081641115215DRYL
2025-06-28 08:00:02FORECAST2025275-1060.2646.6753.46500000FF28.26-146.74182427.5866983106800.580581584887371631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-28 04:00:03FORECAST2025275-1064.34647.5755.958NAN0000FF32.346-139.654182NANNAN0.716610568120651641115215DRYL
2025-06-28 00:00:02FORECAST2025275-1062.47446.63454.55400.003937010.003937010.030.03393701FF30.474-92.526182427.5866983106800.656727401035171631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-27 20:00:02FORECAST2025275-1062.16846.07654.12200.0051181130.0051181130.030.035118113FF30.168-91.832182427.5866983106800.646497804410861631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-27 16:00:02FORECAST2025275-1060.72846.29253.510000.030.03FF28.728-93.272182427.5866983106800.597039985219241631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-27 12:00:02FORECAST2025275-1059.12646.3152.7180000.030.03FF27.126-95.874182427.5866983106800.540168497268961631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-27 08:00:03FORECAST2025275-1062.22247.42654.8240000.020.02FF30.222-92.778182427.5866983106800.648310984980361631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-27 04:00:03FORECAST2025275-1061.62847.06654.347NAN000.030.03FF29.628-93.372182NANNAN0.628189131303821631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-27 00:00:02FORECAST2025275-1061.41247.89454.6530000.070.07FF29.412-44.588182427.5866983106800.620780989877271631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-26 20:00:02FORECAST2025275-1056.19244.43850.315000.010.060.07FF24.192-54.808182427.5866983106800.434707990804671621115210DRYL
2025-06-26 16:00:03FORECAST2025275-1056.31843.46649.8920000.040.04FF24.318-49.682182427.5866983106800.439195636487831621115210DRYL
2025-06-26 12:00:02FORECAST2025275-1059.64845.64452.646000.010.050.06FF27.648-49.352182427.5866983106800.558848928549711631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-26 08:00:02FORECAST2025275-1061.77246.74254.2570000.050.05FF29.772-46.228182427.5866983106800.633101855218371631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-26 04:00:04FORECAST2025275-1064.61647.22855.922NAN000.040.04FF32.616-41.384182NANNAN0.72481797250741641115215DRYL
2025-06-26 00:00:03FORECAST2025275-1066.25447.67856.9660000.040.04FF34.25412.254182427.5866983106800.771963963138621641115215DRYL
2025-06-25 20:00:02FORECAST2025275-1063.08647.4855.2830000.030.03FF31.0869.086182427.5866983106800.676839718026031631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-25 16:00:03FORECAST2025275-1066.09248.84857.47000.080.040.12FF34.09211.092182427.5866983106800.767512820338751641115215DRYL
2025-06-25 12:00:03FORECAST2025275-1060.45848.23654.3470000.080.08FF28.458-2.542182427.5866983106800.587563744977761631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-25 08:00:02FORECAST2025275-1060.18847.04853.6180000.060.06FF28.188-2.812182427.5866983106800.57803619169741631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-25 04:00:05FORECAST2025275-1060.02646.65253.339NAN000.040.04FF28.026-4.974182NANNAN0.57229728287951631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-25 00:00:02FORECAST2025275-1063.5947.28255.4360000.060.06FF31.5956.59182427.5866983106800.693026639628341631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-24 20:00:02FORECAST2025275-1063.5947.01255.3010000.060.06FF31.5957.59182427.5866983106800.693026639628341631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-24 16:00:02FORECAST2025275-1063.0546.97655.013000.010.050.06FF31.0556.05182427.5866983106800.675670116214841631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-24 12:00:02FORECAST2025275-1058.67643.35851.0170000.040.04FF26.67653.676182427.5866983106800.523991630836431631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-24 08:00:03FORECAST2025275-1059.34243.89851.620000.020.02FF27.34257.342182427.5866983106800.547911493766421631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-24 04:00:05FORECAST2025275-1057.09241.61249.352NAN000.020.02FF25.09254.092182NANNAN0.466912777220021621115210DRYL
2025-06-24 00:00:03FORECAST2025275-1056.19243.32249.75700.0960630440.1260630440.040.166063044FF24.192103.192182427.5866983106800.434707990804671621125220DRYL
2025-06-23 20:00:02FORECAST2025275-1058.49645.57252.03400.0992126520.1292126520.040.169212652FF26.496105.496182427.5866983106800.517508286708871631125225DRYL
2025-06-23 16:00:03FORECAST2025275-1057.32644.40250.86400.0885827250.1185827250.060.178582725FF25.326106.326182427.5866983106800.475330356476061621125220DRYL
2025-06-23 12:00:03FORECAST2025275-1059.19844.8752.034000.010.040.05FF27.198110.198182427.5866983106800.542751336534921631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-23 08:00:03FORECAST2025275-1059.5446.34652.943000.010.020.03FF27.54106.54182427.5866983106800.554993340454821631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-23 04:00:04FORECAST2025275-1062.76246.6754.716NAN000.030.03FF30.762108.762182NANNAN0.666251692036781631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-23 00:00:03FORECAST2025275-1053.97841.84647.91200.0035433090.0235433090.090.113543309FF21.978144.978182427.5866983106800.357717706054051621115210DRYL
2025-06-22 20:00:04FORECAST2025275-1045.30240.38842.84500.0035433090.0235433090.090.113543309FF13.302134.302182427.5866983106800.12522541379522161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-22 16:00:03FORECAST2025275-1047.08440.96444.02400.0035433090.0235433090.060.083543309FF15.084138.084182427.5866983106800.16157782982445161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-22 12:00:04FORECAST2025275-1040.98236.0538.516000.020.050.07FF8.982120.982182427.5866983106800.061705855895107161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-22 08:00:03FORECAST2025275-1040.98236.0538.516000.020.070.09FF8.982121.982182427.5866983106800.061705855895107161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-22 04:00:05FORECAST2025275-1045.3242.83644.078NAN00.020.110.13FF13.32129.32182NANNAN0.12556155038973161111527.5DRYL