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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, July 1, 2025

[ Monday, June 30, 2025 | Index | Today | Wednesday, July 2, 2025 ]

DAY 274 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/02/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 0.00°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 0.00°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 0.00°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.000
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -32
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -420

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.08 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.09 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 181
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 0.00 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -11

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-07-02 04:00:03OBSERVATION2025274-110NAN000.010.01FF-32-420181NAN NAN1.1928632803748E-816 1111527.5DRYL
2025-07-02 00:00:01FORECAST2025274-1168.4547.94858.1990000.010.01FF36.45-351.55181426.9382765431700.824998860616211641115130DRYL
2025-07-01 12:00:01FORECAST2025274-1168.05448.00258.0280000.010.01FF36.054-351.946181426.9382765431700.815120480059441641115130DRYL
2025-07-01 08:00:02FORECAST2025274-1168.82847.58858.2080000.010.01FF36.828-351.172181426.9382765431700.834110326683541641115130DRYL
2025-07-01 04:00:03FORECAST2025274-1168.16246.63457.398NAN000.010.01FF36.162-351.838181NANNAN0.817848271667451641115130DRYL
2025-07-01 00:00:01FORECAST2025274-1168.28846.79657.5420000.010.01FF36.288-283.712181426.9382765431700.820998791485921641115130DRYL
2025-06-30 20:00:01FORECAST2025274-1168.59448.8358.7120000.010.01FF36.594-283.406181426.9382765431700.828506589781271641115130DRYL
2025-06-30 16:00:02FORECAST2025274-1169.74649.1959.4680000.010.01FF37.746-282.254181426.9382765431700.854940342335161651115135DRYL
2025-06-30 12:00:02FORECAST2025274-1169.4450.07259.7560000.010.01FF37.44-282.56181426.9382765431700.848201334931641115130DRYL
2025-06-30 08:00:01FORECAST2025274-1169.2650.07259.6660000.010.01FF37.26-281.74181426.9382765431700.844141805302531641115130DRYL
2025-06-30 04:00:03FORECAST2025274-1169.20650.55859.882NAN000.010.01FF37.206-281.794181NANNAN0.84291015373011641115130DRYL
2025-06-30 00:00:02FORECAST2025274-1168.86450.37859.6210000.010.01FF36.864-215.136181426.9382765431700.83496184262771641115130DRYL
2025-06-29 20:00:02FORECAST2025274-1168.48650.88259.6840000.010.01FF36.486-214.514181426.9382765431700.825880021903911641115130DRYL
2025-06-29 16:00:02FORECAST2025274-1168.07250.79259.4320000.010.01FF36.072-214.928181426.9382765431700.815576862550611641115130DRYL
2025-06-29 12:00:02FORECAST2025274-1167.67650.6359.1530000.010.01FF35.676-215.324181426.9382765431700.805375273357831641115215DRYL
2025-06-29 08:00:03FORECAST2025274-1169.31450.73860.0260000.010.01FF37.314-213.686181426.9382765431700.845367090278781641115130DRYL
2025-06-29 04:00:04FORECAST2025274-1168.95450.39659.675NAN000.010.01FF36.954-213.046181NANNAN0.837078259644511641115130DRYL
2025-06-29 00:00:02FORECAST2025274-1168.3650.32459.3420000.010.01FF36.36-160.64181426.9382765431700.822783634898191641115130DRYL
2025-06-28 20:00:02FORECAST2025274-1168.86451.15260.0080000.010.01FF36.864-160.136181426.9382765431700.83496184262771641115130DRYL
2025-06-28 16:00:02FORECAST2025274-1168.1852.08860.1340000.010.01FF36.18-162.82181426.9382765431700.818300451099571641115130DRYL
2025-06-28 12:00:02FORECAST2025274-1169.56652.4360.9980000.010.01FF37.566-160.434181426.9382765431700.85100093990431651115135DRYL
2025-06-28 08:00:02FORECAST2025274-1169.27852.37660.8270000.010.01FF37.278-161.722181426.9382765431700.844550940992571641115130DRYL
2025-06-28 04:00:03FORECAST2025274-1169.5352.32260.926NAN000.010.01FF37.53-159.47181NANNAN0.850204586020451651115135DRYL
2025-06-28 00:00:02FORECAST2025274-1169.29651.45860.3770000.040.04FF37.296-109.704181426.9382765431700.844959369307551641115130DRYL
2025-06-27 20:00:02FORECAST2025274-1169.49451.54860.5210000.040.04FF37.494-108.506181426.9382765431700.849405405856911651115135DRYL
2025-06-27 16:00:02FORECAST2025274-1168.25251.38659.8190000.040.04FF36.252-108.748181426.9382765431700.820102153058051641115130DRYL
2025-06-27 12:00:02FORECAST2025274-1167.1951.51259.3510000.040.04FF35.19-109.81181426.9382765431700.792397180500291641115215DRYL
2025-06-27 08:00:03FORECAST2025274-1167.5551.8959.720000.030.03FF35.55-110.45181426.9382765431700.802058793354671641115215DRYL
2025-06-27 04:00:03FORECAST2025274-1167.38851.38659.387NAN000.040.04FF35.388-109.612181NANNAN0.797745050151011641115215DRYL
2025-06-27 00:00:02FORECAST2025274-1166.2951.51258.9010000.080.08FF34.29-60.71181426.9382765431700.767059651272411641115215DRYL
2025-06-26 20:00:02FORECAST2025274-1163.66249.51456.588000.010.070.08FF31.662-66.338181426.9382765431700.684165118420231631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-26 16:00:02FORECAST2025274-1165.42647.85856.6420000.050.05FF33.426-60.574181426.9382765431700.741203348509371641115215DRYL
2025-06-26 12:00:02FORECAST2025274-1163.6849.31656.49800.0043307110.0143307110.060.074330711FF31.68-64.32181426.9382765431700.684773352645761631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-26 08:00:02FORECAST2025274-1164.86848.7456.80400.0043307110.0043307110.060.064330711FF32.868-63.132181426.9382765431700.723749144112011641115215DRYL
2025-06-26 04:00:04FORECAST2025274-1166.86650.39658.631NAN0.0023622060.0023622060.050.052362206FF34.866-61.134181NANNAN0.783468480771991641115215DRYL
2025-06-26 00:00:02FORECAST2025274-1167.7350.959.3150000.050.05FF35.73-9.27181426.9382765431700.806786232229321641115215DRYL
2025-06-25 20:00:02FORECAST2025274-1168.12652.32260.2240000.040.04FF36.126-8.874181426.9382765431700.816941809686711641115130DRYL
2025-06-25 16:00:03FORECAST2025274-1166.4752.73659.60300.0464567180.0764567180.050.126456718FF34.47-9.53181426.9382765431700.772260163049781641115215DRYL
2025-06-25 12:00:02FORECAST2025274-1165.0353.16859.0990000.090.09FF33.03-17.97181426.9382765431700.728875380266961641115215DRYL
2025-06-25 08:00:02FORECAST2025274-1164.27452.71858.4960000.070.07FF32.274-17.726181426.9382765431700.704556597870291641115215DRYL
2025-06-25 04:00:04FORECAST2025274-1164.00451.7157.857NAN000.050.05FF32.004-19.996181NANNAN0.695634757793711631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-25 00:00:02FORECAST2025274-1164.2250.95457.5870000.070.07FF32.2238.22181426.9382765431700.702781866266651641115215DRYL
2025-06-24 20:00:02FORECAST2025274-1164.61650.61257.6140000.070.07FF32.61638.616181426.9382765431700.715681773058681641115215DRYL
2025-06-24 16:00:02FORECAST2025274-1164.41850.957.65900.0082677210.0082677210.060.068267721FF32.41838.418181426.9382765431700.709265242480981641115215DRYL
2025-06-24 12:00:02FORECAST2025274-1166.63249.69458.1630000.050.05FF34.63239.632181426.9382765431700.776884313472471641115215DRYL
2025-06-24 08:00:03FORECAST2025274-1167.38850.59458.9910000.030.03FF35.38843.388181426.9382765431700.797745050151011641115215DRYL
2025-06-24 04:00:05FORECAST2025274-1166.4748.9257.695NAN000.030.03FF34.4742.47181NANNAN0.772260163049781641115215DRYL
2025-06-24 00:00:03FORECAST2025274-1165.24650.93658.09100.015748040.025748040.050.07574804FF33.24692.246181426.9382765431700.735635840231251641115215DRYL
2025-06-23 20:00:02FORECAST2025274-1166.81252.64659.72900.0161417410.0261417410.050.076141741FF34.81291.812181426.9382765431700.781959097378231641115215DRYL
2025-06-23 16:00:03FORECAST2025274-1165.5750.50458.03700.0185039470.0285039470.070.098503947FF33.5793.57181426.9382765431700.745613322587091641115215DRYL
2025-06-23 12:00:03FORECAST2025274-1164.3149.62256.96600.0027559070.0127559070.050.062755907FF32.3196.31181426.9382765431700.705737040256781641115215DRYL
2025-06-23 08:00:03FORECAST2025274-1164.18451.33257.75800.0023622060.0123622060.030.042362206FF32.18492.184181426.9382765431700.701596014231831641115215DRYL
2025-06-23 04:00:04FORECAST2025274-1163.33849.51456.426NAN000.040.04FF31.33891.338181NANNAN0.673132973717251631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-23 00:00:02FORECAST2025274-1160.0847.53453.80700.0161417410.0161417410.10.116141741FF28.08136.08181426.9382765431700.555238755346781631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-22 20:00:04FORECAST2025274-1159.14446.6752.90700.0161417410.0161417410.10.116141741FF27.144134.144181426.9382765431700.519915998874491631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-22 16:00:03FORECAST2025274-1158.92846.8552.88900.0161417410.0161417410.070.086141741FF26.928135.928181426.9382765431700.511732085418231631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-22 12:00:03FORECAST2025274-1159.39643.4351.41300.0059055150.0159055150.060.075905515FF27.396125.396181426.9382765431700.529453056797071631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-22 08:00:03FORECAST2025274-1159.39643.4351.41300.0059055150.0159055150.080.095905515FF27.396126.396181426.9382765431700.529453056797071631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-22 04:00:05FORECAST2025274-1161.6145.6853.645NAN0.0059055150.0159055150.120.135905515FF29.61128.61181NANNAN0.61192258328561631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-22 00:00:03FORECAST2025274-1149.53242.11645.82400.0007874020.0007874020.440.440787402FF17.532155.532181426.9382765431700.19386325079519161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-21 20:00:03FORECAST2025274-1148.09242.11645.10400.0007874020.0007874020.450.450787402FF16.092156.092181426.9382765431700.1584862067582161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-21 16:00:03FORECAST2025274-1149.98247.2148.596000.010.50.51FF17.982155.982181426.9382765431700.20583500794212161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-21 12:00:03FORECAST2025274-1154.98650.88252.9340000.670.67FF22.986181.986181426.9382765431700.364945279625991621115210DRYL
2025-06-21 08:00:03FORECAST2025274-1154.98650.88252.9340000.810.81FF22.986184.986181426.9382765431700.364945279625991621115210DRYL
2025-06-21 04:00:05FORECAST2025274-1149.51448.07448.794NAN000.770.77FF17.514171.514181NANNAN0.19339335939851161111527.5DRYL