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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, June 29, 2025

[ Saturday, June 28, 2025 | Index | Today | Monday, June 30, 2025 ]

DAY 272 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/30/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 0.00°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 0.00°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 0.00°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.000
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -32
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -329

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.31 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.08 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.11 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 3 in
SWE DAY: 179
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 0.00 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -13

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-06-30 04:00:03OBSERVATION2025272-130NAN000.030.03FF-32-329179NAN NAN3.0961974123445E-716 1111527.5DRYL
2025-06-30 00:00:02FORECAST2025272-1365.85841.39653.6270000.030.03FF33.858-263.142179425.634017538500.751932813979371641115215DRYL
2025-06-29 12:00:02FORECAST2025272-1366.70439.9253.3120000.030.03FF34.704-262.296179425.634017538500.774342233116121641115215DRYL
2025-06-29 08:00:02FORECAST2025272-1366.54239.79453.1680000.030.03FF34.542-262.458179425.634017538500.77014168784951641115215DRYL
2025-06-29 04:00:04FORECAST2025272-1366.84839.61453.231NAN000.030.03FF34.848-262.152179NANNAN0.778039372171921641115215DRYL
2025-06-29 00:00:01FORECAST2025272-1366.68639.75853.2220000.030.03FF34.686-208.314179425.634017538500.773877657693021641115215DRYL
2025-06-28 20:00:01FORECAST2025272-1366.77639.23653.0060000.030.03FF34.776-208.224179425.634017538500.776195134311831641115215DRYL
2025-06-28 16:00:01FORECAST2025272-1366.07442.2654.1670000.030.03FF34.074-208.926179425.634017538500.757764655960411641115215DRYL
2025-06-28 12:00:02FORECAST2025272-1366.242.42254.3110000.030.03FF34.2-208.8179425.634017538500.76113198932211641115215DRYL
2025-06-28 08:00:02FORECAST2025272-1366.23643.82655.0310000.030.03FF34.236-208.764179425.634017538500.762089368501121641115215DRYL
2025-06-28 04:00:03FORECAST2025272-1366.61443.62855.121NAN000.030.03FF34.614-208.386179NANNAN0.772013969896621641115215DRYL
2025-06-28 00:00:02FORECAST2025272-1367.53243.53855.535000.030.030.06FF35.532-158.468179425.634017538500.795122250195821641115215DRYL
2025-06-27 20:00:02FORECAST2025272-1368.2743.48455.877000.030.030.06FF36.27-156.73179425.634017538500.81264975476511641115130DRYL
2025-06-27 16:00:02FORECAST2025272-1368.14443.41255.778000.030.030.06FF36.144-156.856179425.634017538500.809724557935341641115130DRYL
2025-06-27 12:00:01FORECAST2025272-1367.78443.37655.58000.030.030.06FF35.784-157.216179425.634017538500.801213809514251641115215DRYL
2025-06-27 08:00:02FORECAST2025272-1367.92843.39455.661000.020.030.05FF35.928-158.072179425.634017538500.804645240391141641115215DRYL
2025-06-27 04:00:03FORECAST2025272-1368.23444.29456.264NAN00.030.030.06FF36.234-155.766179NANNAN0.811816828280891641115130DRYL
2025-06-27 00:00:02FORECAST2025272-1367.53245.01456.273000.030.070.1FF35.532-109.468179425.634017538500.795122250195821641115215DRYL
2025-06-26 20:00:01FORECAST2025272-1367.06445.03256.048000.030.060.09FF35.064-109.936179425.634017538500.783519815680861641115215DRYL
2025-06-26 16:00:02FORECAST2025272-1368.16244.38456.273000.010.060.07FF36.162-107.838179425.634017538500.810144148732231641115130DRYL
2025-06-26 12:00:02FORECAST2025272-1368.01844.34856.183000.020.060.08FF36.018-108.982179425.634017538500.806771534200691641115130DRYL
2025-06-26 08:00:01FORECAST2025272-1367.83844.31256.075000.030.050.08FF35.838-109.162179425.634017538500.802504823969961641115215DRYL
2025-06-26 04:00:03FORECAST2025272-1367.94643.32255.634NAN00.030.040.07FF35.946-110.054179NANNAN0.805071630030821641115215DRYL
2025-06-26 00:00:02FORECAST2025272-1367.58643.32255.454000.030.040.07FF35.586-59.414179425.634017538500.796436826207081641115215DRYL
2025-06-25 20:00:02FORECAST2025272-1367.49643.30455.4000.020.040.06FF35.496-59.504179425.634017538500.794243074254451641115215DRYL
2025-06-25 16:00:02FORECAST2025272-1367.67643.84455.76000.030.040.07FF35.676-58.324179425.634017538500.798616596599981641115215DRYL
2025-06-25 12:00:02FORECAST2025272-1364.83243.754.266000.040.070.11FF32.832-63.168179425.634017538500.723241275667551641115215DRYL
2025-06-25 08:00:02FORECAST2025272-1364.45443.37653.915000.030.060.09FF32.454-61.546179425.634017538500.712275952804331641115215DRYL
2025-06-25 04:00:04FORECAST2025272-1365.15642.7153.933NAN00.010.060.07FF33.156-63.844179NANNAN0.732474402698581641115215DRYL
2025-06-25 00:00:02FORECAST2025272-1365.60643.62854.6170000.090.09FF33.606-4.394179425.634017538500.745035597983141641115215DRYL
2025-06-24 20:00:02FORECAST2025272-1365.33644.45654.8960000.090.09FF33.336-3.664179425.634017538500.737536033882991641115215DRYL
2025-06-24 16:00:02FORECAST2025272-1365.5743.77254.6710000.080.08FF33.57-4.43179425.634017538500.744042165787241641115215DRYL
2025-06-24 12:00:02FORECAST2025272-1365.35442.40453.8790000.070.07FF33.354-5.646179425.634017538500.738039490659171641115215DRYL
2025-06-24 08:00:02FORECAST2025272-1365.80442.92654.3650000.050.05FF33.804-3.196179425.634017538500.750463254867241641115215DRYL
2025-06-24 04:00:04FORECAST2025272-1365.64242.4454.041NAN000.050.05FF33.642-4.358179NANNAN0.74602701179111641115215DRYL
2025-06-24 00:00:03FORECAST2025272-1364.20241.8153.006000.030.040.07FF32.20248.202179425.634017538500.704853644035821641115215DRYL
2025-06-23 20:00:02FORECAST2025272-1364.14841.1852.664000.030.040.07FF32.14846.148179425.634017538500.703251762945341641115215DRYL
2025-06-23 16:00:03FORECAST2025272-1365.26442.40453.834000.040.050.09FF33.26449.264179425.634017538500.735517271670681641115215DRYL
2025-06-23 12:00:02FORECAST2025272-1366.45244.61855.5350000.070.07FF34.45254.452179425.634017538500.767789298458341641115215DRYL
2025-06-23 08:00:03FORECAST2025272-1366.25445.10455.6790000.050.05FF34.25450.254179425.634017538500.762567269243221641115215DRYL
2025-06-23 04:00:04FORECAST2025272-1366.45247.0356.741NAN000.060.06FF34.45252.452179NANNAN0.767789298458341641115215DRYL
2025-06-23 00:00:02FORECAST2025272-1367.56846.70657.1370000.120.12FF35.56898.568179425.634017538500.795999193034061641115215DRYL
2025-06-22 20:00:03FORECAST2025272-1367.17246.59856.8850000.120.12FF35.17299.172179425.634017538500.786230464073661641115215DRYL
2025-06-22 16:00:03FORECAST2025272-1366.8346.27456.5520000.090.09FF34.83100.83179425.634017538500.777579126516371641115215DRYL
2025-06-22 12:00:03FORECAST2025272-1364.25642.27853.267000.020.060.08FF32.25691.256179425.634017538500.706451535841111641115215DRYL
2025-06-22 08:00:02FORECAST2025272-1363.6842.92653.303000.020.080.1FF31.6891.68179425.634017538500.689205396428821631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-22 04:00:04FORECAST2025272-1363.9544.40254.176NAN00.020.120.14FF31.9591.95179NANNAN0.697344466270971631115212.5DRYL
2025-06-22 00:00:03FORECAST2025272-1364.14849.35256.75000.030.430.46FF32.148136.148179425.634017538500.703251762945341641115215DRYL
2025-06-21 20:00:02FORECAST2025272-1364.47248.32656.399000.030.440.47FF32.472138.472179425.634017538500.712802729050051641115215DRYL
2025-06-21 16:00:02FORECAST2025272-1365.37248.9257.146000.030.490.52FF33.372133.372179425.634017538500.73854245249441641115215DRYL
2025-06-21 12:00:03FORECAST2025272-1366.59650.5458.568000.030.660.69FF34.596145.596179425.634017538500.771546703859351641115215DRYL
2025-06-21 08:00:03FORECAST2025272-1366.59650.5458.568000.030.80.83FF34.596148.596179425.634017538500.771546703859351641115215DRYL
2025-06-21 04:00:05FORECAST2025272-1365.5750.46858.019NAN00.040.750.79FF33.57148.57179NANNAN0.744042165787241641115215DRYL
2025-06-21 00:00:03FORECAST2025272-1365.9351.8958.91000.010.930.94FF33.93189.93179425.634017538500.753885032162541641115215DRYL
2025-06-20 20:00:03FORECAST2025272-1365.8451.8958.865000.010.860.87FF33.84196.84179425.634017538500.751443473755311641115215DRYL
2025-06-20 16:00:02FORECAST2025272-1366.90252.46659.684000.010.840.85FF34.902199.902179425.634017538500.779416847533921641215217.5DRYL
2025-06-20 12:00:03FORECAST2025272-1369.2648.1158.685000.010.720.73FF37.26197.26179425.634017538500.834657904604921641115130DRYL
2025-06-20 08:00:03FORECAST2025272-1369.2645.48257.371000.010.770.78FF37.26179.26179425.634017538500.834657904604921641115130DRYL
2025-06-20 04:00:04FORECAST2025272-1372.12246.1359.126NAN00.020.820.84FF40.122181.122179NANNAN0.888516022210681651115135DRYL
2025-06-20 00:00:03FORECAST2025272-1348.6544.79846.7240000.720.72FF16.65214.65179425.634017538500.212820501913281611215210DRYL
2025-06-19 20:00:03FORECAST2025272-1349.24445.5947.4170000.80.8FF17.244218.244179425.634017538500.227934144802841611215210DRYL
2025-06-19 16:00:02FORECAST2025272-1351.27847.46249.370000.870.87FF19.278223.278179425.634017538500.283988032498451621215212.5DRYL
2025-06-19 12:00:03FORECAST2025272-1351.4445.39248.416000.041.441.48FF19.44220.44179425.634017538500.288720311348621621215212.5DRYL
2025-06-19 08:00:03FORECAST2025272-1346.47241.1843.826000.041.381.42FF14.472227.472179425.634017538500.162623613676921611215210DRYL
2025-06-19 04:00:04FORECAST2025272-1342.00840.42441.216NAN00.11.421.52FF10.008217.008179NANNAN0.0857430395808591611225220DRYL