MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, June 26, 2025

[ Wednesday, June 25, 2025 | Index | Today | Friday, June 27, 2025 ]

DAY 269 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/27/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 0.00°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 0.00°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 0.00°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.000
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -32
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -126

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.01 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.01 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.80 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.80 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 9 in
SWE DAY: 176
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 0.00 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -16

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-06-27 04:00:02OBSERVATION2025269-160NAN000.030.03FF-32-126176NAN NAN1.0307814712895E-816 1111527.5DRYL
2025-06-27 00:00:01FORECAST2025269-1647.67838.87643.27700.0370078940.0370078940.030.067007894FF15.678-78.322176423.6589488367900.1537639890463161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-26 12:00:01FORECAST2025269-1647.89439.16443.52900.031496080.031496080.030.06149608FF15.894-78.106176423.6589488367900.15873468434696161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-26 08:00:01FORECAST2025269-1648.25439.18243.71800.0173228440.0173228440.030.047322844FF16.254-77.746176423.6589488367900.16725006117975161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-26 04:00:03FORECAST2025269-1648.54238.2143.376NAN0.0098425250.0098425250.030.039842525FF16.542-77.458176NANNAN0.17426992262308161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-26 00:00:02FORECAST2025269-1648.12837.92243.02500.0086614220.0086614220.030.038661422FF16.128-26.872176423.6589488367900.16423686029676161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-25 20:00:01FORECAST2025269-1647.8438.62443.23200.0086614220.0086614220.030.038661422FF15.84-28.16176423.6589488367900.15748226915073161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-25 16:00:02FORECAST2025269-1646.9438.37242.65600.0145669370.0145669370.030.044566937FF14.94-29.06176423.6589488367900.13756355092044161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-25 12:00:01FORECAST2025269-1646.8539.18243.01600.043307110.043307110.030.07330711FF14.85-29.15176423.6589488367900.13567046393995161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-25 08:00:01FORECAST2025269-1647.13839.34443.24100.031496080.031496080.030.06149608FF15.138-27.862176423.6589488367900.14179138476025161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-25 04:00:04FORECAST2025269-1646.09438.49842.296NAN0.0267716680.0267716680.030.056771668FF14.094-28.906176NANNAN0.12047082813226161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-25 00:00:01FORECAST2025269-1645.69838.44442.07100.0555118410.0555118410.030.085511841FF13.69828.698176423.6589488367900.11300480571683161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-24 20:00:01FORECAST2025269-1645.98638.44442.21500.059055150.059055150.030.08905515FF13.98628.986176423.6589488367900.11840112709537161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-24 16:00:01FORECAST2025269-1645.84238.06641.95400.0464567180.0464567180.030.076456718FF13.84227.842176423.6589488367900.11568068664517161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-24 12:00:01FORECAST2025269-1645.82437.23841.53100.0299212760.0399212760.030.069921276FF13.82427.824176423.6589488367900.11534376919011161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-24 08:00:02FORECAST2025269-1645.66237.441.53100.0192913490.0192913490.030.049291349FF13.66228.662176423.6589488367900.11234277170511161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-24 04:00:04FORECAST2025269-1646.27436.9541.612NAN0.0059055150.0159055150.030.045905515FF14.27429.274176NANNAN0.12397652408937161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-24 00:00:02FORECAST2025269-1646.50836.48241.49500.011811030.011811030.030.04181103FF14.50884.508176423.6589488367900.12863946079039161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-23 20:00:01FORECAST2025269-1647.337.38242.34100.0082677210.0082677210.030.038267721FF15.385.3176423.6589488367900.14531513706173161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-23 16:00:02FORECAST2025269-1647.1238.01242.56600.0098425250.0198425250.030.049842525FF15.1285.12176423.6589488367900.14140344935067161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-23 12:00:02FORECAST2025269-1647.53438.42642.9800.0259842660.0359842660.030.065984266FF15.53484.534176423.6589488367900.15050790355754161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-23 08:00:02FORECAST2025269-1646.56238.19242.37700.0185039470.0185039470.030.048503947FF14.56283.562176423.6589488367900.1297325335759161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-23 04:00:03FORECAST2025269-1647.24637.99442.62NAN0.0185039470.0285039470.030.058503947FF15.24684.246176NANNAN0.14413408297088161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-23 00:00:02FORECAST2025269-1647.73239.16443.44800.0657480670.0757480670.040.115748067FF15.732129.732176423.6589488367900.1549969220965161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-22 20:00:02FORECAST2025269-1647.5739.43443.50200.0696850770.0796850770.040.119685077FF15.57129.57176423.6589488367900.15131759835589161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-22 16:00:02FORECAST2025269-1649.60438.1243.86200.0456693160.0456693160.040.085669316FF17.604133.604176423.6589488367900.20173822947248161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-22 12:00:03FORECAST2025269-1647.2137.23842.22400.019685050.019685050.040.05968505FF15.21131.21176423.6589488367900.14335030902019161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-22 08:00:02FORECAST2025269-1648.25437.72442.98900.019685050.019685050.060.07968505FF16.254131.254176423.6589488367900.16725006117975161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-22 04:00:04FORECAST2025269-1646.50837.79642.152NAN0.0421260070.0521260070.070.122126007FF14.508128.508176NANNAN0.12863946079039161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-22 00:00:03FORECAST2025269-1646.16637.56241.86400.0086614220.0486614220.380.428661422FF14.166169.166176423.6589488367900.12186466236056161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-21 20:00:02FORECAST2025269-1646.70637.65242.17900.0086614220.0486614220.390.438661422FF14.706170.706176423.6589488367900.13267868608424161111527.5DRYL
2025-06-21 16:00:02FORECAST2025269-1645.46438.08441.77400.0740157880.0940157880.40.494015788FF13.464167.464176423.6589488367900.108750948497791611125215DRYL
2025-06-21 12:00:02FORECAST2025269-1647.40837.54442.47600.2429135170.2529135170.410.662913517FF15.408172.408176423.6589488367900.147696674063041611125215DRYL
2025-06-21 08:00:02FORECAST2025269-1647.35437.9442.64700.2429135170.2429135170.560.802913517FF15.354173.354176423.6589488367900.14650266627761611125215DRYL
2025-06-21 04:00:04FORECAST2025269-1647.17438.49842.836NAN0.2688977830.2688977830.480.748897783FF15.174174.174176NANNAN0.142569410036871611125215DRYL
2025-06-21 00:00:02FORECAST2025269-1646.23838.82242.5300.1940945930.1940945930.740.934094593FF14.238211.238176423.6589488367900.123269751583841611225220DRYL
2025-06-20 20:00:03FORECAST2025269-1646.88639.43443.1600.1933071910.1933071910.670.863307191FF14.886215.886176423.6589488367900.136425552487381611225220DRYL
2025-06-20 16:00:02FORECAST2025269-1647.71440.04643.8800.1933071910.1933071910.650.843307191FF15.714215.714176423.6589488367900.154585222972491611225220DRYL
2025-06-20 12:00:02FORECAST2025269-1650.34239.30844.82500.0389763990.0489763990.670.718976399FF18.342215.342176423.6589488367900.222266682760931611215210DRYL
2025-06-20 08:00:03FORECAST2025269-1648.54237.88643.21400.0389763990.0489763990.720.768976399FF16.542207.542176423.6589488367900.174269922623081611215210DRYL
2025-06-20 04:00:04FORECAST2025269-1648.57838.24643.412NAN0.0665354690.0765354690.740.816535469FF16.578207.578176NANNAN0.175160353578161611215210DRYL
2025-06-20 00:00:03FORECAST2025269-1650.19838.62444.4110000.720.72FF18.198260.198176423.6589488367900.21817023693141611215210DRYL
2025-06-19 20:00:02FORECAST2025269-1650.25237.2243.7360000.80.8FF18.252261.252176423.6589488367900.219701291072671611215210DRYL
2025-06-19 16:00:02FORECAST2025269-1650.6337.34643.9880000.870.87FF18.63261.63176423.6589488367900.230589607733211611215210DRYL
2025-06-19 12:00:02FORECAST2025269-1646.29237.05841.67500.5874018920.5974018920.841.437401892FF14.292256.292176423.6589488367900.124330968554771611235230DRYL
2025-06-19 08:00:02FORECAST2025269-1647.53439.72243.62800.5874018920.5974018920.781.377401892FF15.534267.534176423.6589488367900.150507903557541611235230DRYL
2025-06-19 04:00:04FORECAST2025269-1647.89438.94843.421NAN0.5814963770.5914963770.831.421496377FF15.894268.894176NANNAN0.158734684346961611235230DRYL
2025-06-19 00:00:02FORECAST2025269-1657.9240.83849.37900.0283464720.0283464720.870.898346472FF25.92326.92176423.6589488367900.485216280262931621215212.5DRYL
2025-06-18 20:00:03FORECAST2025269-1657.9243.84450.88200.0283464720.0283464720.940.968346472FF25.92331.92176423.6589488367900.485216280262931621215212.5DRYL
2025-06-18 16:00:02FORECAST2025269-1656.60642.849.70300.0283464720.0283464720.991.018346472FF24.606326.606176423.6589488367900.435179278262611621215212.5DRYL
2025-06-18 12:00:03FORECAST2025269-1657.43443.750.56700.0094488240.0094488241.061.069448824FF25.434328.434176423.6589488367900.466639812112921621215212.5DRYL
2025-06-18 08:00:03FORECAST2025269-1655.25641.05448.15500.0094488240.0094488241.091.099448824FF23.256322.256176423.6589488367900.384838842102321621215212.5DRYL
2025-06-18 04:00:05FORECAST2025269-1654.08640.8247.453NAN0.0094488240.0094488241.091.099448824FF22.086321.086176NANNAN0.342697533403091621215212.5DRYL
2025-06-18 00:00:03FORECAST2025269-1656.31842.51249.41519.1718828430290.0125984320.0525984320.940.992598432FF24.318370.318176431.940611706328.281114802780.42432170980256162121225DRYL
2025-06-17 20:00:03FORECAST2025269-1655.99441.05448.52423.4002836806310.0114173290.0514173290.920.971417329FF23.994367.994176433.713500880910.1490189567330.41217562351886162121122.5DRYL
2025-06-17 16:00:03FORECAST2025269-1656.37242.4449.40622.97311925913400.040.910.95FF24.372365.372176433.535262241619.95965728251640.42635339307618162121225DRYL
2025-06-17 12:00:03FORECAST2025269-1663.48241.66652.57421.27494598093900.020.910.93FF31.482375.482176432.82476672569.20832353129940.69035727325463163121226DRYL
2025-06-17 08:00:03FORECAST2025269-1663.21241.66652.43921.11633413324800.020.90.92FF31.212383.212176432.758248792429.138267780420.68115941880044163121226DRYL
2025-06-17 04:00:04FORECAST2025269-1660.45838.4849.46921.20321245621200.010.80.81FF28.458376.458176432.794686757399.17663769323650.58182687463827163121226DRYL
2025-06-17 00:00:03FORECAST2025269-1640.74834.80837.77822.76988966587900.010.860.87FF8.748353.748176433.450394740919.86961766388190.045794485478269161121224DRYL
2025-06-16 20:00:03FORECAST2025269-1640.74834.80837.77826.84661905009800.010.850.86FF8.748349.748176435.14446664411.6821577277490.045794485478269161121122DRYL
2025-06-16 16:00:05FORECAST2025269-1647.55240.78444.16825.31008360723400.010.890.9FF15.552367.552176434.5080231964710.9974343951170.15091239048971161121122DRYL
2025-06-16 12:00:03FORECAST2025269-1652.64645.10448.87525.60562167754100.080.971.05FF20.646374.646176434.6306300880611.1289874835060.29344393795908162121122.5DRYL
2025-06-16 08:00:03FORECAST2025269-1652.64645.10448.87525.37906210609700.080.971.05FF20.646377.646176434.5366478433511.0281325729920.29344393795908162121122.5DRYL
2025-06-16 04:00:04FORECAST2025269-1648.84847.5748.20922.9168461007800.040.850.89FF16.848378.848176433.511767282339.93472245368620.18193007036048161121224DRYL