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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, June 20, 2025

[ Thursday, June 19, 2025 | Index | Today | Saturday, June 21, 2025 ]

DAY 263 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/21/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 0.00°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 0.00°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 0.00°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.000
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -32
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 248

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.03 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.03 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 170
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 0.00 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -22

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-06-21 04:00:03OBSERVATION2025263-220NAN000.030.03FF-32248170NAN NAN3.844442486578E-916 11215210DRYL
2025-06-21 00:00:01FORECAST2025263-2236.530.1133.30500.2405513110.2405513110.030.270551311FF4.5284.5170419.6406179709900.0213784473663841611225220DRYL
2025-06-20 12:00:01FORECAST2025263-2236.66229.85833.2600.216535550.216535550.030.24653555FF4.662284.662170419.6406179709900.0222488727553441611225220DRYL
2025-06-20 08:00:02FORECAST2025263-2235.09628.68831.89200.2622048660.2622048660.030.292204866FF3.096283.096170419.6406179709900.0149690268166911611225220DRYL
2025-06-20 04:00:03FORECAST2025263-2235.22228.54431.883NAN0.2200788590.2200788590.030.250078859FF3.222283.222170NANNAN0.0154675035498461611225220DRYL
2025-06-20 00:00:02FORECAST2025263-2235.07828.16631.6220.0963982132720390.2594489590.2594489590.030.289448959FF3.078330.078170419.684259698150.04045681277330.0148989535182061611224216DRYL
2025-06-19 20:00:01FORECAST2025263-2235.629.76832.6840.0397585001578870.2366143010.2366143010.030.266614301FF3.6330.6170419.658618869240.0166849972645720.0170491249433511611224216DRYL
2025-06-19 16:00:01FORECAST2025263-2235.85230.2933.07100.2090552310.2090552310.030.239055231FF3.852330.852170419.6406179709900.0181785282449731611225220DRYL
2025-06-19 12:00:01FORECAST2025263-2236.42830.43433.43100.2035434170.2035434170.030.233543417FF4.428331.428170419.6406179709900.0210009127824591611225220DRYL
2025-06-19 08:00:01FORECAST2025263-2237.0431.08234.06100.2011812110.2011812110.030.231181211FF5.04334.04170419.6406179709900.0243964271522681611225220DRYL
2025-06-19 04:00:03FORECAST2025263-2236.78831.133.944NAN0.1740158420.1740158420.030.204015842FF4.788333.788170NANNAN0.0229463248543031611225220DRYL
2025-06-19 00:00:01FORECAST2025263-2237.36431.29834.33100.1602363070.1802363070.030.210236307FF5.364381.364170419.6406179709900.0263728729815191611225220DRYL
2025-06-18 20:00:02FORECAST2025263-2237.43631.35234.39400.1807087590.2207087590.030.250708759FF5.436381.436170419.6406179709900.0268297528488461611225220DRYL
2025-06-18 16:00:01FORECAST2025263-2237.70631.1934.44800.1751969450.2151969450.030.245196945FF5.706381.706170419.6406179709900.028602145701081611225220DRYL
2025-06-18 12:00:02FORECAST2025263-2237.1331.4634.29500.1917323870.2317323870.030.261732387FF5.13381.13170419.6406179709900.0249325826543071611225220DRYL
2025-06-18 08:00:02FORECAST2025263-2236.96830.86633.91700.1972442010.2272442010.030.257244201FF4.968380.968170419.6406179709900.0239744853613821611225220DRYL
2025-06-18 04:00:04FORECAST2025263-2237.18430.93834.061NAN0.2157481480.2357481480.030.265748148FF5.184382.184170NANNAN0.0252589811969621611225220DRYL
2025-06-18 00:00:02FORECAST2025263-2237.2231.20834.21428.5388264067930.141732360.161732360.030.19173236FF5.22436.22170432.1051678658812.3317743752030.025478558225325161132125DRYL
2025-06-17 20:00:02FORECAST2025263-2237.70631.13634.42132.225120.1362205460.1462205460.030.176220546FF5.706435.706170433.6502907471413.9744326573610.02860214570108161132125DRYL
2025-06-17 16:00:02FORECAST2025263-2237.45431.15434.30432.2482440.1236221140.1436221140.030.173622114FF5.454435.454170433.6599376639313.9847714828110.026944997077963161132125DRYL
2025-06-17 12:00:02FORECAST2025263-2237.32831.06434.19630.61106480.1082677750.1382677750.030.168267775FF5.328435.328170432.9755339747913.2538421273170.0261468763912161132125DRYL
2025-06-17 08:00:02FORECAST2025263-2238.33631.49634.91630.6399002661880.0968504460.1268504460.030.156850446FF6.336437.336170432.9876129440613.2666972771010.033117574051905161132125DRYL
2025-06-17 04:00:03FORECAST2025263-2237.8531.40634.62830.2192144363640.0881890240.1081890240.030.138189024FF5.85434.85170432.8113029503513.0792175743380.029586462024727161132125DRYL
2025-06-17 00:00:02FORECAST2025263-2236.48230.43433.45829.0324455768820.1015748580.1515748580.030.181574858FF4.482434.482170432.3129099548212.5511010304470.021283531001077161132125DRYL
2025-06-16 20:00:02FORECAST2025263-2237.430.66834.03432.7888200611570.1015748580.1415748580.030.171574858FF5.4433.4170433.8852948984614.2265868616080.026600495633892161132125DRYL
2025-06-16 16:00:02FORECAST2025263-2238.62431.26234.94332.3912784202580.0795276020.1595276020.030.189527602FF6.624435.624170433.7195964605714.0487322052760.035368687626787161132125DRYL
2025-06-16 12:00:02FORECAST2025263-2239.30830.93835.12330.8296557450940.0921260340.1321260340.030.162126034FF7.308437.308170433.0670780858713.3513089319210.041218804935561161132125DRYL
2025-06-16 08:00:02FORECAST2025263-2238.40830.12834.26830.7912011967080.0921260340.1321260340.030.162126034FF6.408440.408170433.0509773176213.3341597710180.033669013845516161132125DRYL
2025-06-16 04:00:03FORECAST2025263-2239.70430.77635.2430.4104754829020.0791339010.1091339010.030.139133901FF7.704439.704170432.8914840665613.1644358629630.044948392772538161132125DRYL
2025-06-16 00:00:03FORECAST2025263-2238.01230.48834.2528.9447021640350.1212599080.1512599080.030.181259908FF6.012434.012170432.2760017340712.5121001228530.030727162643493161132125DRYL
2025-06-15 20:00:02FORECAST2025263-2238.80430.45234.62832.7400983255370.1149606920.1549606920.030.184960692FF6.804431.804170433.8649962964814.2047826387560.036838107881613161132125DRYL
2025-06-15 16:00:02FORECAST2025263-2239.88432.28836.08632.59524240.1397638550.1797638550.030.209763855FF7.884433.884170433.8046311285714.1399671058780.046730901261506161132125DRYL
2025-06-15 12:00:03FORECAST2025263-2239.12830.99235.0631.4040807101960.2405513110.2605513110.030.290551311FF7.128435.128170433.307400452713.6076205761420.039608278935988161132125DRYL
2025-06-15 08:00:03FORECAST2025263-2239.0231.49635.25831.1527172328940.2405513110.2605513110.030.290551311FF7.02435.02170433.2022805755613.4954281514150.038666706441027161132125DRYL
2025-06-15 04:00:05FORECAST2025263-2240.0131.85635.93330.6875022384830.1818898620.1918898620.030.221889862FF8.01442.01170433.0075511320713.2879201946450.048011961293421161132125DRYL
2025-06-15 00:00:02FORECAST2025263-2238.37231.76635.06930.9419508538840.1570866990.1670866990.020.187086699FF6.372439.372170433.1140866059313.4013947818860.03339235938737161132125DRYL
2025-06-14 20:00:02FORECAST2025263-2238.13831.4634.79932.8665032690290.1673229250.1773229250.020.197322925FF6.138440.138170433.9176543244614.2613560043440.031639271146086161132125DRYL
2025-06-14 16:00:02FORECAST2025263-2237.27431.76634.5233.4144803861520.1858268720.1958268720.020.215826872FF5.274436.274170434.1457363338414.5067541914590.025810911816046161132125DRYL
2025-06-14 12:00:02FORECAST2025263-2240.47831.4635.96931.7320014868460.2263780750.2563780750.020.276378075FF8.478440.478170433.444435641213.7540594762320.053017115846646161132125DRYL
2025-06-14 08:00:02FORECAST2025263-2240.53232.0936.31131.6388642562530.2263780750.2563780750.020.276378075FF8.532443.532170433.40552602213.712458605720.05362024655439161132125DRYL
2025-06-14 04:00:04FORECAST2025263-2236.9529.9333.4432.2234294998110.2515749390.2715749390.020.291574939FF4.95435.95170433.6495854786513.9736768452940.023869961041018161132125DRYL
2025-06-14 00:00:03FORECAST2025263-2238.91230.25434.58333.74823520.0468504190.09685041900.096850419FF6.912439.912170434.2844980941914.6563353853970.037743396429768161132125DRYL
2025-06-13 20:00:02FORECAST2025263-2247.17433.4440.30734.46385920.0476378210.09763782100.097637821FF15.174454.174170434.5816294038614.9773600866810.17662003672149161132125DRYL
2025-06-13 16:00:02FORECAST2025263-2245.21234.08839.6534.5144609086270.0531496350.10314963500.103149635FF13.212450.212170434.60261909415.0000751075070.12929868456762161132125DRYL
2025-06-13 12:00:02FORECAST2025263-2245.9534.41240.18133.46322960.1283465260.17834652600.178346526FF13.95452.95170434.1660116232514.5285969314650.14595359207215161132125DRYL
2025-06-13 08:00:02FORECAST2025263-2240.92830.59635.76234.2876708746970.1283465260.17834652600.178346526FF8.928447.928170434.508525080214.89828530020.058210218586407161132125DRYL
2025-06-13 04:00:04FORECAST2025263-2241.01830.68635.85233.7717437865350.1240158150.17401581500.174015815FF9.018448.018170434.2942675802414.6668747326810.05929511494374161132125DRYL
2025-06-13 00:00:03FORECAST2025263-2242.96229.67836.3236.0092215017540.0322834820.1322834820.020.152283482FF10.962440.962170435.2214334713315.671985000180.086782964988311161132125DRYL
2025-06-12 20:00:03FORECAST2025263-2243.46629.01236.23938.0847138365860.0291338740.1291338740.020.149133874FF11.466444.466170436.0767777290216.607859290590.095259686631724161132125DRYL
2025-06-12 16:00:03FORECAST2025263-2244.04231.1937.61637.4868405000850.0318897810.1218897810.020.141889781FF12.042450.042170435.8308465748316.3379214305670.10567364888952161132125DRYL
2025-06-12 12:00:03FORECAST2025263-2248.21831.13639.67736.09743819321600.060.110.17FF16.218455.218170435.2578808386715.7116944516840.20576585261765161131122.5DRYL
2025-06-12 08:00:03FORECAST2025263-2248.21831.13639.67737.30243696221500.060.110.17FF16.218440.218170435.7549180361316.2547203610180.20576585261765161131122.5DRYL
2025-06-12 04:00:04FORECAST2025263-2250.8643241.43236.53544241666700.060.090.15FF18.864445.864170435.4387245780715.9089464478090.29123672250726162131123DRYL
2025-06-12 00:00:03FORECAST2025263-2245.73434.35840.04637.0760012318350.062992160.132992160.190.32299216FF13.734438.734170435.6616339949416.152591278660.14093670090646161132125DRYL
2025-06-11 20:00:03FORECAST2025263-2246.50835.11440.81140.6564215621090.062992160.132992160.190.32299216FF14.508443.508170437.1303843892717.7721571853370.15946183405092161132125DRYL
2025-06-11 16:00:03FORECAST2025263-2250.43236.4143.42139.8551516729760.0330708840.1030708840.190.293070884FF18.432454.432170436.8028487736317.4088437890610.27622760554521162132126DRYL
2025-06-11 12:00:03FORECAST2025263-2259.32433.1746.24737.88677593625100.10.250.35FF27.324457.324170435.9953986635216.5184599784010.62471320233833163132127DRYL
2025-06-11 08:00:03FORECAST2025263-2259.32433.1746.24738.123828800.10.210.31FF27.324456.324170436.0928543923116.6255293217560.62471320233833163132127DRYL
2025-06-11 04:00:05FORECAST2025263-2249.85633.4441.64838.47180089190.0968504460.2468504460.210.456850446FF17.856442.856170436.2358043121216.7827770054140.25682434650057162132126DRYL
2025-06-11 00:00:03FORECAST2025263-2239.36235.29437.32838.91088986334200.350.831.18FF7.362419.362170436.4160056175716.9813351291850.04171215260916161132125DRYL
2025-06-10 20:00:03FORECAST2025263-2240.69435.29437.99443.89245423197500.350.831.18FF8.694427.694170438.4464179461519.2444893328750.055462181068114161132125DRYL
2025-06-10 16:00:03FORECAST2025263-2240.5535.61838.08444.12594895933200.370.380.75FF8.55423.55170438.540958098119.3510359336130.053822489604585161132125DRYL
2025-06-10 12:00:03FORECAST2025263-2242.87239.95641.41440.45741936864200.070.160.23FF10.872432.872170437.0491003422417.6818787372340.085330295709735161131122.5DRYL
2025-06-10 08:00:03FORECAST2025263-2242.87239.95641.41441.94807467362100.060.160.22FF10.872422.872170437.6569728800418.3588673798030.085330295709735161131122.5DRYL
2025-06-10 04:00:05FORECAST2025263-2237.68835.88836.78840.30465726652300.060.170.23FF5.688424.688170436.9866755513617.6125981881350.028481038353872161131122.5DRYL