MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, June 19, 2025

[ Wednesday, June 18, 2025 | Index | Today | Friday, June 20, 2025 ]

DAY 262 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/20/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 0.00°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 0.00°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 0.00°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.000
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -32
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 301

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.03 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.03 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 169
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 0.00 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -23

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-06-20 04:00:02OBSERVATION2025262-230NAN000.030.03FF-32301169NAN NAN2.2775126451435E-816 11215210DRYL
2025-06-20 00:00:02FORECAST2025262-2347.19232.10839.650000.030.03FF15.192348.192169418.9619436547500.214188696530441611215210DRYL
2025-06-19 12:00:01FORECAST2025262-2347.28231.94639.6140000.030.03FF15.282348.282169418.9619436547500.216792800218271611215210DRYL
2025-06-19 08:00:01FORECAST2025262-2349.13633.54841.3420000.030.03FF17.136350.136169418.9619436547500.274340123831761621215212.5DRYL
2025-06-19 04:00:03FORECAST2025262-2349.20832.66640.937NAN000.030.03FF17.208350.208169NANNAN0.276717787035461621215212.5DRYL
2025-06-19 00:00:01FORECAST2025262-2350.52233.13441.828000.020.030.05FF18.522396.522169418.9619436547500.321788788894261621215212.5DRYL
2025-06-18 20:00:02FORECAST2025262-2350.28833.4441.864000.040.030.07FF18.288397.288169418.9619436547500.313541037245161621215212.5DRYL
2025-06-18 16:00:01FORECAST2025262-2350.2733.5341.9000.040.030.07FF18.27397.27169418.9619436547500.312910367234191621215212.5DRYL
2025-06-18 12:00:02FORECAST2025262-2350.21633.40441.8100.0003937010.0403937010.030.070393701FF18.216397.216169418.9619436547500.311021642815421621215212.5DRYL
2025-06-18 08:00:01FORECAST2025262-2349.4633.0841.27000.030.030.06FF17.46397.46169418.9619436547500.285118154859681621215212.5DRYL
2025-06-18 04:00:03FORECAST2025262-2349.22632.70240.964NAN00.020.030.05FF17.226398.226169NANNAN0.27731377467821621215212.5DRYL
2025-06-18 00:00:02FORECAST2025262-2349.42432.30640.86528.858442400.020.030.05FF17.424452.424169431.6090028860312.4555635491080.28391070163437162131123DRYL
2025-06-17 20:00:01FORECAST2025262-2349.3732.10840.73932.552693600.010.030.04FF17.37451.37169433.1620795400814.1005924544070.28210411873094162131123DRYL
2025-06-17 16:00:01FORECAST2025262-2349.3732.01840.69432.563517600.020.030.05FF17.37451.37169433.1666086108814.1054284832330.28210411873094162131123DRYL
2025-06-17 12:00:02FORECAST2025262-2349.31632.12640.72130.910102400.030.030.06FF17.316451.316169432.4733272107913.3677948293540.28030308272581162131123DRYL
2025-06-17 08:00:02FORECAST2025262-2349.5531.94640.74830.948773600.030.030.06FF17.55451.55169432.4895754225813.3850219541140.2881474388011162131123DRYL
2025-06-17 04:00:03FORECAST2025262-2349.53232.07240.80230.58644323636400.020.030.05FF17.532449.532169432.3372749738413.2236595199510.28754036997975162131123DRYL
2025-06-17 00:00:02FORECAST2025262-2349.53232.59441.06329.276760800.050.030.08FF17.532450.532169431.7855980136912.6412836699320.28754036997975162131123DRYL
2025-06-16 20:00:01FORECAST2025262-2349.22632.37840.80233.031134400.040.030.07FF17.226449.226169433.3621539960914.3144435525180.2773137746782162131123DRYL
2025-06-16 16:00:02FORECAST2025262-2350.41432.88241.64832.811702400.080.030.11FF18.414450.414169433.2704220684314.2163401476320.31797090357324162131123DRYL
2025-06-16 12:00:02FORECAST2025262-2350.55832.50441.53131.16537200.040.030.07FF18.558450.558169432.5805525828913.4815338412110.32306563312164162131123DRYL
2025-06-16 08:00:02FORECAST2025262-2351.87232.61242.24231.074253600.040.030.07FF19.872454.872169432.5422865003113.4409287034350.37099007705211162131123DRYL
2025-06-16 04:00:03FORECAST2025262-2351.40432.48641.94530.80335343333300.030.030.06FF19.404453.404169432.4284669483113.3202469020430.35364375963913162131123DRYL
2025-06-16 00:00:02FORECAST2025262-2349.62232.82841.22529.293016800.030.030.06FF17.622448.622169431.7924567756112.6485036904410.29058173475063162131123DRYL
2025-06-15 20:00:02FORECAST2025262-2347.40832.50439.95633.141460800.040.030.07FF15.408446.408169433.4082558215214.3637827207050.22046906802387161131122.5DRYL
2025-06-15 16:00:02FORECAST2025262-2348.09232.16240.12733.143920800.040.030.07FF16.092447.092169433.4092836285214.3648829705680.24103728699604161131122.5DRYL
2025-06-15 12:00:03FORECAST2025262-2350.3423241.17131.312795200.020.030.05FF18.342449.342169432.6424456758613.5472442962750.31543631160249162131123DRYL
2025-06-15 08:00:03FORECAST2025262-2349.47833.24241.3631.131739200.020.030.05FF17.478449.478169432.5664291836313.466545260020.28572279700207162131123DRYL
2025-06-15 04:00:05FORECAST2025262-2351.6232.37841.99930.85639813333300.010.030.04FF19.62454.62169432.4507600115513.3438728239790.36161457634583162131123DRYL
2025-06-15 00:00:02FORECAST2025262-2349.87432.82841.35131.140162400.010.020.03FF17.874453.874169432.5699664456313.4702990044790.29917655673482162131123DRYL
2025-06-14 20:00:02FORECAST2025262-2348.63232.84640.73933.020350400.010.020.03FF16.632454.632169433.3576470189914.3096213530870.25798394107486162131123DRYL
2025-06-14 16:00:02FORECAST2025262-2348.231.7339.96533.41532800.010.020.03FF16.2452.2169433.5226402219514.4863012184430.24437753223783161131122.5DRYL
2025-06-14 12:00:02FORECAST2025262-2350.07231.67640.87432.078367200.030.020.05FF18.072453.072169432.9634854884613.8887616716910.30600940333754162131123DRYL
2025-06-14 08:00:02FORECAST2025262-2352.26832.30642.28732.0775800.030.020.05FF20.268456.268169432.9631556995513.8884102640050.38587692643466162131123DRYL
2025-06-14 04:00:04FORECAST2025262-2350.4531.554132.267628700.020.020.04FF18.45452.45169433.0427554090813.9732628427650.31924141151964162131123DRYL
2025-06-14 00:00:03FORECAST2025262-2350.3630.8340.59534.12737040.0074803190.04748031900.047480319FF18.36454.36169433.8196624160414.8051243060750.31606915272889162131123DRYL
2025-06-13 20:00:02FORECAST2025262-2350.28829.7540.01935.47039280.0074803190.04748031900.047480319FF18.288460.288169434.3784322795115.4075736168020.31354103724516162131123DRYL
2025-06-13 16:00:02FORECAST2025262-2348.39829.53438.96635.5049553086270.0074803190.04748031900.047480319FF16.398458.398169434.3927870070215.4230964890740.25056544648103162131123DRYL
2025-06-13 12:00:02FORECAST2025262-2348.39830.18239.2934.49032880.0129921330.05299213300.052992133FF16.398460.398169433.9708607248614.967797676020.25056544648103162131123DRYL
2025-06-13 08:00:02FORECAST2025262-2346.07629.71437.89534.6139728358810.0129921330.05299213300.052992133FF14.076460.076169434.0223355468215.0232373327830.18343540780765161131122.5DRYL
2025-06-13 04:00:04FORECAST2025262-2345.2329.42637.32834.0261954088410.0149606380.05496063800.054960638FF13.23460.23169433.7774908977314.7597976692430.16205645618117161131122.5DRYL
2025-06-13 00:00:03FORECAST2025262-2346.83229.4838.15636.4908243910390.0185039470.11850394700.118503947FF14.832450.832169434.8017144275815.8662730060990.20395558297915161132125DRYL
2025-06-12 20:00:03FORECAST2025262-2351.42230.59641.00938.5988705046550.0177165450.11771654500.117716545FF19.422454.422169435.6726800971116.8164733614840.35430560704874162132126DRYL
2025-06-12 16:00:03FORECAST2025262-2353.5130.68642.09838.1391029477230.0035433090.11354330900.113543309FF21.51458.51169435.4831188122216.6089355003750.43357037217049162132126DRYL
2025-06-12 12:00:02FORECAST2025262-2353.1532.32442.73737.10456219321600.1700.17FF21.15460.15169435.0557692954716.1425538493410.41961335615186162132126DRYL
2025-06-12 08:00:03FORECAST2025262-2347.9330.6539.2938.30956096221500.1700.17FF15.93444.93169435.5534241493916.6858604547520.23607374646871161132125DRYL
2025-06-12 04:00:04FORECAST2025262-2349.5531.02840.28937.74418801666700.1500.15FF17.55447.55169435.3201193121516.4308044307560.2881474388011162132126DRYL
2025-06-12 00:00:03FORECAST2025262-2352.73630.30841.52238.14787243183500.2600.26FF20.736445.736169435.4867365250716.6128924707150.40368793423565162132126DRYL
2025-06-11 20:00:03FORECAST2025262-2353.9631.40642.68341.82501996210900.2600.26FF21.96449.96169436.9966070158818.2773918118130.4511317969804162132126DRYL
2025-06-11 16:00:03FORECAST2025262-2354.12231.58642.85441.31058607297600.2600.26FF22.122457.122169436.7862232336618.0438948703840.45747925116859162132126DRYL
2025-06-11 12:00:03FORECAST2025262-2349.24432.07240.65839.4861695362510.0649606650.2549606650.10.354960665FF17.244451.244169436.0378865278217.2174659116660.27791038861951162132126DRYL
2025-06-11 08:00:03FORECAST2025262-2349.24432.07240.65839.72322240.0649606650.2249606650.090.314960665FF17.244450.244169436.1353166817617.3247001810440.27791038861951162132126DRYL
2025-06-11 04:00:05FORECAST2025262-2348.32632.41440.3739.74440809190.0925197350.2725197350.090.362519735FF16.326446.326169436.1440212732817.3342859683270.24830575002166161132125DRYL
2025-06-11 00:00:03FORECAST2025262-2352.3433.00842.67439.1680090633420.0086614220.6786614220.51.178661422FF20.34433.34169435.9070284184317.0736104398680.38860250231964162133129DRYL
2025-06-10 20:00:02FORECAST2025262-2352.23234.75443.49344.1911966319750.0086614220.6786614220.51.178661422FF20.232440.232169437.9607504904319.354009642010.38451623826073162133129DRYL
2025-06-10 16:00:03FORECAST2025262-2351.49433.81842.65644.4295129593320.0094488240.6794488240.070.749448824FF19.494436.494169438.0575361758919.462682980460.35695737961456162133129DRYL
2025-06-10 12:00:03FORECAST2025262-2356.9335.31246.12140.8571201686420.066929170.076929170.150.22692917FF24.93442.93169436.6005449263517.8382409297510.56781943930927163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-10 08:00:02FORECAST2025262-2356.9333.24245.08642.3477754736210.0633858610.0733858610.150.223385861FF24.93432.93169437.2101126024318.5148756832840.56781943930927163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-10 04:00:05FORECAST2025262-2351.40435.00643.20540.3831804665230.0633858610.0733858610.160.233385861FF19.404440.404169436.4062546179617.6234725369560.35364375963913162131123DRYL
2025-06-10 00:00:04FORECAST2025262-2339.09235.31237.20237.2236332515320.0015748040.1615748040.030.191574804FF7.092426.092169435.1050125371416.1961894125860.055470099616757161132125DRYL
2025-06-09 20:00:03FORECAST2025262-2339.21835.34837.28343.7368046404960.0015748040.1615748040.030.191574804FF7.218433.218169437.7760491340619.1469255372640.056883646069675161132125DRYL
2025-06-09 16:00:04FORECAST2025262-2337.4926.04231.76644.8404155830.0019685050.1819685050.040.221968505FF5.49424.49169438.2242755553319.650158634460.039805833488589161132125DRYL
2025-06-09 12:00:03FORECAST2025262-2336.66230.97433.81839.892983200.0900.09FF4.662432.662169436.2050533529317.4015208651630.033241161607482161132125DRYL
2025-06-09 08:00:04FORECAST2025262-2344.38438.10241.24338.504952800.0900.09FF12.384453.384169435.6339759963516.7740656838160.1423659612848161132125DRYL
2025-06-09 04:00:04FORECAST2025262-2344.47442.40443.43938.6693714500.0900.09FF12.474459.474169435.7017279319116.8483119588060.14438046462817161132125DRYL