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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, June 18, 2025

[ Tuesday, June 17, 2025 | Index | Today | Thursday, June 19, 2025 ]

DAY 261 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/19/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 0.00°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 0.00°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 0.00°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.000
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -32
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 353

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.03 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.03 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 168
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 0.00 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -24

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-06-19 04:00:02OBSERVATION2025261-240NAN000.030.03FF-32353168NAN NAN1.0335286221297E-716 11215210DRYL
2025-06-19 00:00:01FORECAST2025261-2444.99636.71640.85600.023622060.023622060.030.05362206FF12.996397.996168418.2806854698600.191985939627511611215210DRYL
2025-06-18 12:00:02FORECAST2025261-2445.96837.07641.52200.0377952960.0377952960.030.067795296FF13.968398.968168418.2806854698600.218450661724771611215210DRYL
2025-06-18 08:00:01FORECAST2025261-2446.68836.39241.5400.0338582860.0338582860.030.063858286FF14.688399.688168418.2806854698600.239337980731531611315212.5DRYL
2025-06-18 04:00:03FORECAST2025261-2447.5736.26641.918NAN0.0244094620.0244094620.030.054409462FF15.57400.57168NANNAN0.266342480801011621315215DRYL
2025-06-18 00:00:01FORECAST2025261-2447.73236.19441.96330.00539280.0204724520.0204724520.030.050472452FF15.732454.732168431.46147961412.9461711738870.27146473593246162131123DRYL
2025-06-17 20:00:01FORECAST2025261-2447.8436.2342.03533.69236240.0149606380.0149606380.030.044960638FF15.84453.84168433.0128844607914.5892270271220.27490658978777162131123DRYL
2025-06-17 16:00:01FORECAST2025261-2447.58836.03241.8133.69560960.0192913490.0192913490.030.049291349FF15.588453.588168433.0142444256514.5906789314060.26690919904197162131123DRYL
2025-06-17 12:00:02FORECAST2025261-2447.85835.72641.79232.05173920.0263779670.0263779670.030.056377967FF15.858453.858168432.3243360306513.8567468682680.27548231340075162131123DRYL
2025-06-17 08:00:02FORECAST2025261-2446.6735.54641.10832.10694160.0271653690.0271653690.030.057165369FF14.67453.67168432.3475504451613.8813575530460.23880286075854161131122.5DRYL
2025-06-17 04:00:03FORECAST2025261-2446.45435.52840.99131.7497280363640.0204724520.0204724520.030.050472452FF14.454452.454168432.1972728259413.7221458702820.23243265986623161131122.5DRYL
2025-06-17 00:00:02FORECAST2025261-2446.25635.76241.00930.45529760.0496063260.0496063260.030.079606326FF14.256453.256168431.6515699622913.1460770227090.22667716154903161131122.5DRYL
2025-06-16 20:00:01FORECAST2025261-2446.32835.2440.78434.16913040.0444882130.0444882130.030.074488213FF14.328452.328168433.2124403729914.8024923660070.22876072602348161131122.5DRYL
2025-06-16 16:00:02FORECAST2025261-2446.2235.72640.97334.0981840.0767716950.0767716950.030.106771695FF14.22452.22168433.1827603655714.7707454685730.2256394018304161131122.5DRYL
2025-06-16 12:00:02FORECAST2025261-2446.83235.6941.26132.42853280.0370078940.0370078940.030.067007894FF14.832451.832168432.4827253651214.0247802449360.2436423917312161131122.5DRYL
2025-06-16 08:00:02FORECAST2025261-2447.62436.19441.90932.34499120.0350393890.0350393890.030.065039389FF15.624454.624168432.447620812313.9875144896350.26804445768433162131123DRYL
2025-06-16 04:00:03FORECAST2025261-2447.24636.35641.80132.0732054333330.0259842660.0259842660.030.055984266FF15.246454.246168432.3333636705613.866316788690.25624662365775162131123DRYL
2025-06-16 00:00:02FORECAST2025261-2447.08436.62641.85530.47047120.0303149770.0303149770.030.060314977FF15.084451.084168431.6579772102613.1528219628350.25127445497123162131123DRYL
2025-06-15 20:00:01FORECAST2025261-2447.33636.01441.67534.19729280.0385826980.0385826980.030.068582698FF15.336451.336168433.2242204638614.8150955152540.25903090855999162131123DRYL
2025-06-15 16:00:01FORECAST2025261-2446.72435.92441.32434.23438960.0448819140.0448819140.030.074881914FF14.724450.724168433.2397364517714.8316979278910.24041017975574161131122.5DRYL
2025-06-15 12:00:03FORECAST2025261-2448.36235.74442.05332.535120.0244094620.0244094620.030.054409462FF16.362451.362168432.5275029683914.0723342123770.29183868187146162131123DRYL
2025-06-15 08:00:03FORECAST2025261-2449.40636.53642.97132.3442240.015748040.015748040.030.04574804FF17.406452.406168432.4472983969213.9871722875450.32708119128062162131123DRYL
2025-06-15 04:00:04FORECAST2025261-2449.98237.443.69132.1931621333330.011811030.011811030.030.04181103FF17.982454.982168432.3838024874713.9198018573060.34723445732443162131123DRYL
2025-06-15 00:00:02FORECAST2025261-2450.30637.2243.76332.29213120.0114173290.0114173290.020.031417329FF18.306456.306168432.4254049565213.9639379110690.35876798826096162131123DRYL
2025-06-14 20:00:02FORECAST2025261-2450.41436.71643.56534.10619440.0082677210.0082677210.020.028267721FF18.414458.414168433.1861117369514.7743297382810.36264190806053162131123DRYL
2025-06-14 16:00:02FORECAST2025261-2449.76635.90642.83634.4421320.0082677210.0082677210.020.028267721FF17.766455.766168433.326599105114.9246919254890.33962247389841162131123DRYL
2025-06-14 12:00:02FORECAST2025261-2449.60435.4242.51233.22384160.0303149770.0303149770.020.050314977FF17.604454.604168432.816544927814.379828330540.33395587881087162131123DRYL
2025-06-14 08:00:02FORECAST2025261-2450.3635.43842.89933.41611520.0303149770.0303149770.020.050314977FF18.36456.36168432.897147867114.4657409628780.36070316222638162131123DRYL
2025-06-14 04:00:03FORECAST2025261-2448.86633.99841.43233.44232790.0177165450.0177165450.020.037716545FF16.866453.866168432.9081334338514.4774557488720.30863316657284162131123DRYL
2025-06-14 00:00:03FORECAST2025261-2447.06633.47640.27135.22964720.0425197080.04251970800.042519708FF15.066456.066168433.655464381715.2775290165190.25072515329312162131123DRYL
2025-06-13 20:00:02FORECAST2025261-2447.3932.93640.16336.57207920.0417323060.04173230600.041732306FF15.39462.39168434.214547950715.8801288374450.26070894745987162131123DRYL
2025-06-13 16:00:02FORECAST2025261-2447.37232.95440.16336.53016080.0421260070.04212600700.042126007FF15.372462.372168434.1971189849415.8612905754170.26014898107957162131123DRYL
2025-06-13 12:00:02FORECAST2025261-2448.12833.51240.8235.53356560.0397638010.03976380100.039763801FF16.128464.128168433.7822044753715.4138284188380.28418855068453162131123DRYL
2025-06-13 08:00:02FORECAST2025261-2447.51633.29640.40635.44500560.0397638010.03976380100.039763801FF15.516465.516168433.7452832721515.3741039945550.26464598272294162131123DRYL
2025-06-13 04:00:04FORECAST2025261-2447.71433.36840.54134.8104289043480.0381889970.03818899700.038188997FF15.714466.714168433.4804812776615.0896414749390.2708931850276162131123DRYL
2025-06-13 00:00:02FORECAST2025261-2444.49232.73838.61537.3964608221250.07874020.098740200.0987402FF12.492456.492168434.5569351256716.250891399410.17906994244299161132125DRYL
2025-06-12 20:00:03FORECAST2025261-2445.10434.26839.68639.7270623647750.0783464990.09834649900.098346499FF13.104455.104168435.521025236117.3019709307250.19482592208516161132125DRYL
2025-06-12 16:00:02FORECAST2025261-2444.36634.1639.26339.4478938843760.0913386320.11133863200.111338632FF12.366457.366168435.4058434311617.175843508310.17592819354758161132125DRYL
2025-06-12 12:00:02FORECAST2025261-2447.53435.20441.36938.4345365932160.0559055420.16590554200.165905542FF15.534458.534168434.9870565174316.7185259412950.26521087162041162132126DRYL
2025-06-12 08:00:02FORECAST2025261-2444.11433.18838.65139.2943481622150.0559055420.16590554200.165905542FF12.114449.114168435.3424573536417.1064980890480.16974990026838161132125DRYL
2025-06-12 04:00:04FORECAST2025261-2444.09633.45838.77738.8483344166670.0641732630.15417326300.154173263FF12.096450.096168435.1581956385116.9051711083180.16931396961694161132125DRYL
2025-06-12 00:00:03FORECAST2025261-2445.15831.89238.52539.4810940318350.0744094890.26440948900.264409489FF13.158445.158168435.4195457215117.190840027930.19625542434385161132125DRYL
2025-06-11 20:00:03FORECAST2025261-2445.06832.2738.66943.2882279621090.0744094890.26440948900.264409489FF13.068448.068168436.9831787971218.9162274593760.19387644077316161132125DRYL
2025-06-11 16:00:03FORECAST2025261-2448.25432.55840.40642.8092180729760.0657480670.25574806700.255748067FF16.254455.254168436.7872745427318.6985216874010.28829594944251162132126DRYL
2025-06-11 12:00:03FORECAST2025261-2448.41632.3640.38840.6161951362510.0448819140.29488191400.294881914FF16.416454.416168435.8873276805717.7040847584930.29361761259722162132126DRYL
2025-06-11 08:00:03FORECAST2025261-2448.72233.11640.91940.8532480.0448819140.25488191400.254881914FF16.722452.722168435.9848484608517.8113971384140.30379163807982162132126DRYL
2025-06-11 04:00:04FORECAST2025261-2446.7632.84639.80340.8248273462170.062992160.2729921600.27299216FF14.76449.76168435.9731596334217.7985289696190.24148498557181161132125DRYL
2025-06-11 00:00:02FORECAST2025261-2446.59832.16239.3840.6423362633420.3409450661.17094506601.170945066FF14.598432.598168435.8980847158317.7159165355680.236668929466751611341210DRYL
2025-06-10 20:00:02FORECAST2025261-2447.24635.58241.41445.7699262319750.3409450661.17094506601.170945066FF15.246440.246168437.9943299183820.0469681703880.256246623657751621341212DRYL
2025-06-10 16:00:03FORECAST2025261-2446.38235.16840.77545.8932129593320.3602364150.74023641500.740236415FF14.382437.382168438.0443962656220.103264763460.23033041719831161133127.5DRYL
2025-06-10 12:00:03FORECAST2025261-2447.28235.0641.17142.4540537686420.0011811030.16118110300.161181103FF15.282438.282168436.6418663827818.5372172730550.25735846488028162132126DRYL
2025-06-10 08:00:02FORECAST2025261-2443.73632.86438.343.6907386736210.0007874020.16078740200.160787402FF11.736427.736168437.1476124164619.0993020958850.16074614630867161132125DRYL
2025-06-10 04:00:05FORECAST2025261-2447.334.84441.07241.8267084665230.0011811030.1611811030.010.171181103FF15.3441.3168436.3847036356118.2525357782170.25791532281288162132126DRYL
2025-06-10 00:00:03FORECAST2025261-2450.25235.76243.00737.44414765153200.1900.19FF18.252439.252168434.5767187821916.2723548239990.35683643122349162132126DRYL
2025-06-09 20:00:03FORECAST2025261-2450.59435.85243.22343.95259584049600.1900.19FF18.594445.594168437.25449604619.2184701441490.36912960688595162132126DRYL
2025-06-09 16:00:04FORECAST2025261-2447.7534.741.22544.9407665539990.0066929170.21669291700.216692917FF15.75438.75168437.6572032093819.6686502001090.27203688617342162132126DRYL
2025-06-09 12:00:03FORECAST2025261-2451.24235.85243.54739.96934160.0153543390.08535433900.085354339FF19.242448.242168435.6209207723417.4114813904560.39278313635643162131123DRYL
2025-06-09 08:00:03FORECAST2025261-2460.02636.87848.45238.89815920.0153543390.08535433900.085354339FF28.026461.026168435.1787901161816.9276538584030.71551036946351164131124DRYL
2025-06-09 04:00:04FORECAST2025261-2467.26239.03853.1538.856921850.0153543390.08535433900.085354339FF35.262467.262168435.1617453371716.9090459306760.89676131072278165131124.5DRYL
2025-06-09 00:00:03FORECAST2025261-2442.9838.19240.58637.3752224000.030.03FF10.98439.98168434.5481232496216.2413327499570.14368925121063161131122.5DRYL
2025-06-08 20:00:03FORECAST2025261-2442.9838.19240.58644.533272000.030.03FF10.98443.98168437.4912602555119.4829172905810.14368925121063161131122.5DRYL
2025-06-08 16:00:03FORECAST2025261-2440.96433.3537.15744.3321424000.030.03FF8.964442.964168437.4092914376419.3912909950970.10432421347049161131122.5DRYL
2025-06-08 12:00:03FORECAST2025261-2441.07239.81240.44241.87574136368500.100.1FF9.072438.072168436.4048180728318.2747752914840.10621225345137161132125DRYL
2025-06-08 08:00:03FORECAST2025261-2441.07239.81240.44242.121192800.100.1FF9.072433.072168436.505470323818.3861310737630.10621225345137161132125DRYL
2025-06-08 04:00:04FORECAST2025261-2436.57234.5235.54642.25081291666700.1800.18FF4.572420.572168436.5585983210418.4449556648250.046556828726404161132125DRYL