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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, June 17, 2025

[ Monday, June 16, 2025 | Index | Today | Wednesday, June 18, 2025 ]

DAY 260 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/18/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 0.00°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 0.00°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 0.00°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.000
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -32
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 411

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.04 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.04 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 167
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 0.00 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -25

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 3
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 12.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-06-18 04:00:03OBSERVATION2025260-250NAN000.040.04FF-32411167NAN NAN2.2995066467635E-716 11315212.5DRYL
2025-06-18 00:00:01FORECAST2025260-2554.17636.15845.16731.3081104000.040.04FF22.176465.176167431.3797220328713.5056839617260.5982524438659163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-17 12:00:02FORECAST2025260-2553.4236.10444.76233.342452000.040.04FF21.42464.42167432.2379509780414.4118731330640.56952270552163163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-17 08:00:01FORECAST2025260-2553.90635.61844.76233.3394016000.040.04FF21.906464.906167432.2366674208714.410511841390.58804412566351163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-17 04:00:03FORECAST2025260-2553.29436.19444.74432.951782436364000.040.04FF21.294464.294167432.0734828247914.2375914025640.56469404830048163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-17 00:00:02FORECAST2025260-2552.91635.56444.2431.67329280.0011811030.0011811030.040.041181103FF20.916464.916167431.5341085180613.6681061722790.55015293512512163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-16 20:00:01FORECAST2025260-2552.91636.10444.5135.39302960.0011811030.0011811030.040.041181103FF20.916463.916167433.0985531561515.3286699115730.55015293512512163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-16 16:00:02FORECAST2025260-2552.75436.30244.52835.37256240.0011811030.0011811030.040.041181103FF20.754463.754167433.0899854520515.3195025352180.5438991822025163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-16 12:00:01FORECAST2025260-2552.32236.24844.28533.70960240.0019685050.0019685050.040.041968505FF20.322463.322167432.3923690990314.5757748431220.52717344685378163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-16 08:00:01FORECAST2025260-2552.73635.99644.36633.6587296000.040.04FF20.736464.736167432.3709813322514.5530579475490.54320362012573163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-16 04:00:03FORECAST2025260-2552.84436.17644.5133.375923033333000.040.04FF20.844464.844167432.2520343744914.4268106302850.54737493284674163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-16 00:00:02FORECAST2025260-2553.22235.97844.631.7905072000.040.04FF21.222462.222167431.5836323599613.7202625719420.56193043066704163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-15 20:00:01FORECAST2025260-2553.07836.33844.70835.5082760.0003937010.0003937010.040.040393701FF21.078462.078167433.1467877406415.3802956876080.55639425794286163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-15 16:00:01FORECAST2025260-2552.8836.01444.44735.504832000.040.04FF20.88461.88167433.1453465127815.3787527595180.54876423250933163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-15 12:00:02FORECAST2025260-2552.77235.4244.09633.8859552000.040.04FF20.772460.772167432.4664893419114.6545400833410.54459460977897163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-15 08:00:02FORECAST2025260-2552.89836.44644.67233.8296704000.040.04FF20.898460.898167432.4428367153914.6293986329230.54945865949997163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-15 04:00:04FORECAST2025260-2553.97836.73445.35633.786061333333000.040.04FF21.978462.978167432.4245085018714.6099209662810.59077248064163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-15 00:00:02FORECAST2025260-2553.83436.64445.23933.8617096000.030.03FF21.834463.834167432.4563009999914.6437096791520.58531150877933163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-14 20:00:02FORECAST2025260-2553.81636.42845.12235.6557976000.030.03FF21.816465.816167433.208510006115.4463949513750.58462770362008163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-14 16:00:02FORECAST2025260-2552.9735.81644.39335.89185920.0015748040.0015748040.030.031574804FF20.97463.97167433.3072288424615.5522020479560.5522348327942163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-14 12:00:02FORECAST2025260-2552.32236.3244.32134.77255920.0035433090.0035433090.030.033543309FF20.322463.322167432.838622159115.0509066130740.52717344685378163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-14 08:00:02FORECAST2025260-2552.46636.5944.52834.90402160.0003937010.0003937010.030.030393701FF20.466464.466167432.8937293448315.1097320795570.53275548922692163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-14 04:00:03FORECAST2025260-2552.19635.22243.70934.74553750.0003937010.0003937010.030.030393701FF20.196463.196167432.8272927631615.0388169317260.522284740573163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-14 00:00:02FORECAST2025260-2551.81835.31243.56536.4564984000.010.01FF19.818466.818167433.5431158971615.8054639110360.50760143126223163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-13 20:00:01FORECAST2025260-2551.31435.54643.4337.7654744000.010.01FF19.314473.314167434.0886620893716.3935642554660.48801109495413162131123DRYL
2025-06-13 16:00:01FORECAST2025260-2551.4435.47443.45737.7040728000.010.01FF19.44473.44167434.0631120702816.3659471772920.4929078138093162131123DRYL
2025-06-13 12:00:02FORECAST2025260-2551.92636.15844.04236.7566776000.010.01FF19.926473.926167433.6683828915415.9402089352580.5117985853821163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-13 08:00:02FORECAST2025260-2552.735.40244.05136.690848000.010.01FF20.7475.7167433.6409198893815.9106530782410.54181210092834163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-13 04:00:04FORECAST2025260-2553.31234.98844.1536.089727304348000.010.01FF21.312477.312167433.3899299139915.6409243870460.56538446474815163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-13 00:00:02FORECAST2025260-2552.2534.77243.51138.41794560.0212598540.0212598540.010.031259854FF20.25470.25167434.3599179919816.6872157002360.52438035414475163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-12 20:00:02FORECAST2025260-2551.65634.64643.15140.8128640.0212598540.0212598540.010.031259854FF19.656467.656167435.3517277830117.7679508581730.50130426706248163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-12 16:00:02FORECAST2025260-2551.6235.90643.76340.47771360.0173228440.0173228440.010.027322844FF19.62470.62167435.2132944475917.6164390875620.4999047978559163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-12 12:00:02FORECAST2025260-2550.4536.39243.42139.41686320.1118110840.1118110840.010.121811084FF18.45469.45167434.7743342189317.1374404547790.45452092835881162132126DRYL
2025-06-12 08:00:02FORECAST2025260-2548.18236.82442.50340.00627920.1118110840.1118110840.010.121811084FF16.182463.182167435.0183696472517.4034663532370.36871858159298162132126DRYL
2025-06-12 04:00:04FORECAST2025260-2548.16436.39242.27839.6202824166670.0877953230.0877953230.010.097795323FF16.164464.164167434.8585970020917.2292204245380.36805727057546162131123DRYL
2025-06-12 00:00:03FORECAST2025260-2547.26437.54442.40440.09082480.1925197890.1925197890.010.202519789FF15.264458.264167435.0533440417417.4416473946310.33552632054907162132126DRYL
2025-06-11 20:00:03FORECAST2025260-2548.3838.22843.30444.02792720.1925197890.1925197890.010.202519789FF16.38461.38167436.673734051719.225839372980.37601826594919162132126DRYL
2025-06-11 16:00:03FORECAST2025260-2550.57638.42644.50143.7678560.1921260880.1921260880.010.202126088FF18.576464.576167436.5671958835619.1076101637550.45939050929431162132126DRYL
2025-06-11 12:00:03FORECAST2025260-2551.24238.17444.70841.7019480.1527559880.2527559880.010.262755988FF19.242464.242167435.7183920459718.1703057277450.48521373375891162132126DRYL
2025-06-11 08:00:03FORECAST2025260-2550.59437.2243.90742.01643440.1240158150.2140158150.010.224015815FF18.594461.594167435.8478902492818.3127742890370.46008667862957162132126DRYL
2025-06-11 04:00:04FORECAST2025260-2550.5437.1343.83541.8145910333330.1232284130.2132284130.010.223228413FF18.54460.54167435.7647877242518.2213263854170.45799854622749162132126DRYL
2025-06-11 00:00:02FORECAST2025260-2545.6832.93639.30841.6473938633420.3287403350.8287403350.010.838740335FF13.68443.68167435.6959173877718.1455994760990.28127332056789162133129DRYL
2025-06-10 20:00:02FORECAST2025260-2549.89232.1841.03646.9971710319750.3287403350.8287403350.010.838740335FF17.892450.892167437.8851093298320.5793613755290.43304757811997162133129DRYL
2025-06-10 16:00:03FORECAST2025260-2549.22632.59440.9147.0088721593320.3055119760.3755119760.010.385511976FF17.226449.226167437.8898650398820.5847086855270.40767968607373162132126DRYL
2025-06-10 12:00:03FORECAST2025260-2549.96430.86640.41543.7114089686420.0070866180.1570866180.010.167086618FF17.964448.964167436.5440630603119.0819560732620.43580862388846162132126DRYL
2025-06-10 08:00:02FORECAST2025260-2545.15829.76837.46344.5231042736210.0070866180.1570866180.010.167086618FF13.158442.158167436.8763888788919.4510930167370.26436875742169162132126DRYL
2025-06-10 04:00:05FORECAST2025260-2549.17232.32440.74843.0311244665230.0070866180.1570866180.020.177086618FF17.172452.172167436.2650114641718.7729740087040.40563819889911162132126DRYL
2025-06-10 00:00:03FORECAST2025260-2547.55231.89239.72238.8924972515320.1610237090.1910237090.010.201023709FF15.552446.552167434.5569241050216.9010039763890.34581670330662162132126DRYL
2025-06-09 20:00:03FORECAST2025260-2547.51634.23240.87445.4371566404960.1610237090.1910237090.010.201023709FF15.516452.516167437.2498026277919.8673877730250.3445239698099162132126DRYL
2025-06-09 16:00:03FORECAST2025260-2546.86833.7140.28946.1724393539990.1716536360.2116536360.010.221653636FF14.868448.868167437.5495558435420.2027303315550.32157730734666162132126DRYL
2025-06-09 12:00:03FORECAST2025260-2550.03637.52643.78141.3426120.0712598810.0712598810.010.081259881FF18.036455.036167435.5702991397618.0076138760590.43857280159111162131123DRYL
2025-06-09 08:00:03FORECAST2025260-2551.04438.53444.78940.79314640.0700787780.0700787780.010.080078778FF19.044459.044167435.3435867221417.7590346674570.47752515481359162131123DRYL
2025-06-09 04:00:04FORECAST2025260-2552.8838.69645.78841.182704250.0700787780.0700787780.010.080078778FF20.88457.88167435.5043529939917.9352469689390.54876423250933163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-09 00:00:03FORECAST2025260-2558.74837.448.07437.73280800.030.010.04FF26.748454.748167434.0750696636816.3788712612060.75627334309293164131124DRYL
2025-06-08 20:00:03FORECAST2025260-2558.74837.448.07444.890857600.030.010.04FF26.748458.748167437.0267297520219.6185046926920.75627334309293164131124DRYL
2025-06-08 16:00:03FORECAST2025260-2558.56838.8448.70444.603529600.030.010.04FF26.568459.568167436.9092794755819.4876959796040.75074053030715164131124DRYL
2025-06-08 12:00:03FORECAST2025260-2558.11835.88847.00342.24228136368500.10.010.11FF26.118455.118167435.9408249921118.4151349872340.73662190979139164132128DRYL
2025-06-08 08:00:03FORECAST2025260-2558.11835.47446.79642.487732800.10.010.11FF26.118450.118167436.0417664278518.5264260616260.73662190979139164132128DRYL
2025-06-08 04:00:04FORECAST2025260-2551.83635.11443.47542.3089673166670.0137795350.1837795350.010.193779535FF19.836441.836167435.968255689818.4453666810840.50830102795335163132127DRYL
2025-06-08 00:00:03FORECAST2025260-2551.47638.4844.97839.9708889043680.0610236550.2610236550.010.271023655FF19.476440.476167435.0037273393617.3874856584680.49430710495463162132126DRYL
2025-06-07 20:00:04FORECAST2025260-2551.47638.4844.97845.6516985043680.0610236550.2610236550.010.271023655FF19.476442.476167437.3373229087919.9651916101390.49430710495463162132126DRYL
2025-06-07 16:00:04FORECAST2025260-2537.72432.30635.01546.5846444283560.0625984590.3825984590.020.402598459FF5.724416.724167437.7173550428220.390907344790.087717562131396161132125DRYL
2025-06-07 12:00:04FORECAST2025260-2537.3130.18233.74644.384117600.750.040.79FF5.31409.31167436.8195332980719.3878495358790.08145178371033161133127.5DRYL
2025-06-07 08:00:04FORECAST2025260-2537.3130.18233.74644.656488800.770.040.81FF5.31408.31167436.9309339061119.5118013563520.08145178371033161133127.5DRYL
2025-06-07 04:00:04FORECAST2025260-2535.92434.91635.4244.5225734333330.0086614220.5186614220.040.558661422FF3.924406.924167436.8761717650819.4508514386840.062912554731472161133127.5DRYL