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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, June 16, 2025

[ Sunday, June 15, 2025 | Index | Today | Tuesday, June 17, 2025 ]

DAY 259 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/17/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 51.57°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 44.08°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 47.82°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.499
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 20
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 482

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.01 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.03 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.04 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 35 in
SWE DAY: 166
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 432.13 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 14.95 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -26

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 3
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-06-17 04:00:03OBSERVATION2025259-2651.5699644.0799847.8249734.59191363636400.010.030.04FF19.56996481.56996166432.1341531595 14.9483473054160.4988943468112116 2131123DRYL
2025-06-17 00:00:02FORECAST2025259-2653.09637.88645.49133.280755200.010.030.04FF21.096483.096166431.5811758357714.3633474619180.55898461528543163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-16 12:00:01FORECAST2025259-2652.23238.19245.21235.311160800.010.030.04FF20.232482.232166432.4367123070715.2698422840980.52504071523933163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-16 08:00:01FORECAST2025259-2652.64638.4845.56335.276917600.010.030.04FF20.646482.646166432.4223200603415.254526553170.54134356191199163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-16 04:00:03FORECAST2025259-2652.57438.60645.5935.00877263333300.010.030.04FF20.574482.574166432.3095767729315.1346276804560.53851249767209163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-16 00:00:02FORECAST2025259-2653.25838.80446.03133.442446400.010.030.04FF21.258480.258166431.6494682283814.4354142048160.565308710007163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-15 20:00:01FORECAST2025259-2653.640.15446.87737.153917600.010.030.04FF21.6479.6166433.2093704839516.0954252545080.57860293574969163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-15 16:00:01FORECAST2025259-2653.70839.6546.67937.13138400.010.030.04FF21.708479.708166433.1999440893516.085313472760.58278331304365163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-15 12:00:02FORECAST2025259-2653.02439.43446.22935.497255200.010.030.04FF21.024479.024166432.5149049753315.3530919597130.55616897236644163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-15 08:00:02FORECAST2025259-2652.03439.45245.74335.48367600.010.030.04FF20.034479.034166432.5092005518515.3470163394010.51722715785968163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-15 04:00:04FORECAST2025259-2652.50240.29846.435.53600693333300.010.030.04FF20.502479.502166432.5311829303115.3704311154940.53567948056422163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-15 00:00:01FORECAST2025259-2651.81840.13645.97735.5860712000.030.03FF19.818480.818166432.5522104274515.3928337579890.50869582815667163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-14 20:00:02FORECAST2025259-2652.30439.86646.08537.3825208000.030.03FF20.304483.304166433.3049706905216.1980320795820.52787978120944163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-14 16:00:02FORECAST2025259-2652.08838.89445.49137.5189032000.030.03FF20.088482.088166433.3619783933116.2592661178990.51935891107037163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-14 12:00:01FORECAST2025259-2652.2539.245.72536.435224000.030.03FF20.25482.25166432.9084561731315.7731165721620.52575060660759163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-14 08:00:02FORECAST2025259-2652.19638.85845.52736.5450384000.030.03FF20.196483.196166432.9544706118315.8223377539610.52362069623612163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-14 04:00:03FORECAST2025259-2651.4438.06644.75336.2895319000.030.03FF19.44482.44166432.8473884446915.7078291107950.49375877431733162131123DRYL
2025-06-14 00:00:02FORECAST2025259-2652.46638.80445.63537.9693000.010.01FF20.466486.466166433.5501035564216.4615939469650.53426228431246163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-13 20:00:01FORECAST2025259-2653.85238.55246.20239.2574152000.010.01FF21.852492.852166434.086946915417.0411315079580.58834254820127163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-13 16:00:01FORECAST2025259-2653.8738.73246.30139.210872000.010.01FF21.87492.87166434.0675798360617.0201683123010.58903623185122163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-13 12:00:02FORECAST2025259-2654.37438.76846.57138.2779416000.010.01FF22.374493.374166433.6788951128716.6003354202830.60833882192849163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-13 08:00:01FORECAST2025259-2653.67238.76846.2238.2436984000.010.01FF21.672493.672166433.6646109130916.5849385865130.58139086869231163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-13 04:00:04FORECAST2025259-2652.59238.91245.75237.688924104348000.010.01FF20.592494.592166433.433019306816.3356241689720.53922045238688163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-13 00:00:02FORECAST2025259-2650.95437.4944.22239.9247448000.010.01FF18.954488.954166434.3643776639717.3418869284450.47456976965807162131123DRYL
2025-06-12 20:00:02FORECAST2025259-2649.38837.1343.25942.3038208000.010.01FF17.388487.388166435.3496195624618.4169522913180.41335905450183162131123DRYL
2025-06-12 16:00:02FORECAST2025259-2652.39437.79645.09542.0292848000.010.01FF20.394490.394166435.2362301672618.2926674729780.5314266058228163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-12 12:00:02FORECAST2025259-2650.10838.04844.07840.9001448000.010.01FF18.108490.108166434.7690383012917.782116621080.44133292534408162131123DRYL
2025-06-12 08:00:02FORECAST2025259-2649.29836.33842.81841.332908000.010.01FF17.298486.298166434.9482563589317.9776762648440.40989002221253162131123DRYL
2025-06-12 04:00:04FORECAST2025259-2650.61237.77844.19540.962064816667000.010.01FF18.612486.612166434.7946930063417.8100883968680.46109904456634162131123DRYL
2025-06-12 00:00:03FORECAST2025259-2651.837.07644.43841.4576008000.010.01FF19.8481.8166434.9998582161518.0340504699820.50798465050481163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-11 20:00:02FORECAST2025259-2653.47437.07645.27545.4620088000.010.01FF21.474484.474166436.6483497614319.850911119360.57371464110404163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-11 16:00:03FORECAST2025259-2654.15837.5845.86945.3143104000.010.01FF22.158485.158166436.5878442214219.7836770899160.6000959102614163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-11 12:00:03FORECAST2025259-2651.27836.82444.05143.28195680.0960630440.0960630440.010.106063044FF19.278484.278166435.7529691034418.8602411842070.48735863715491162132126DRYL
2025-06-11 08:00:03FORECAST2025259-2648.88437.43643.1643.42798240.0893701270.0893701270.010.099370127FF16.884481.884166435.8130990998818.9264835973990.39402712057683162131123DRYL
2025-06-11 04:00:04FORECAST2025259-2648.14637.25642.70143.2360774333330.0889764260.0889764260.010.098976426FF16.146481.146166435.7340724265818.8394320957770.36619662303375162131123DRYL
2025-06-11 00:00:02FORECAST2025259-2641.64833.56637.60742.3244609962720.500000270.500000270.010.51000027FF9.648468.648166435.3581412213418.4262986675320.16212192054769161133127.5DRYL
2025-06-10 20:00:02FORECAST2025259-2644.90634.14239.52447.786939353120.500000270.500000270.010.51000027FF12.906471.906166437.5977868122720.9114588994580.25369271578549162133129DRYL
2025-06-10 16:00:02FORECAST2025259-2644.9634.2539.60547.78832320.070866180.070866180.010.08086618FF12.96470.96166437.5983502689320.9120913944380.2554090725128162131123DRYL
2025-06-10 12:00:03FORECAST2025259-2645.26636.64440.95544.6984954695140.1523622870.1523622870.010.162362287FF13.266470.266166436.3353271607619.5035326442840.26524834888678162132126DRYL
2025-06-10 08:00:02FORECAST2025259-2643.95233.838.87645.352273413680.1476378750.1476378750.010.157637875FF11.952467.952166436.6033981662719.8009566869790.22439420729782161132125DRYL
2025-06-10 04:00:04FORECAST2025259-2644.99634.95239.97444.2751120789280.1480315760.1480315760.020.168031576FF12.996473.996166436.1614880553419.3110987681620.25655666768162132126DRYL
2025-06-10 00:00:03FORECAST2025259-2650.0935.31242.70139.79464160.0295275750.0295275750.010.039527575FF18.09470.09166434.3103264037617.2832237824160.44062939021212162131123DRYL
2025-06-09 20:00:02FORECAST2025259-2655.83237.83246.83246.51117040.0295275750.0295275750.010.039527575FF23.832475.832166437.077492462620.3289857299330.66254577679764163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-09 16:00:03FORECAST2025259-2655.3136.9546.1347.1462440.0381889970.0381889970.010.048188997FF23.31473.31166437.3367040282120.618782958270.64345581571889163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-09 12:00:02FORECAST2025259-2658.38841.950.14442.885524000.010.01FF26.388476.388166435.589614653518.6804888733730.74941053663757164131124DRYL
2025-06-09 08:00:03FORECAST2025259-2657.97439.81248.89342.473228000.010.01FF25.974478.974166435.4195490164718.4936737810340.73618219487981164131124DRYL
2025-06-09 04:00:03FORECAST2025259-2657.25440.08248.66843.02278425000.010.01FF25.254476.254166435.6461928509318.7427121643590.712358999235164131124DRYL
2025-06-09 00:00:02FORECAST2025259-2653.74434.75444.24939.870252800.030.010.04FF21.744466.744166434.341741184317.317315022610.58417472005003163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-08 20:00:02FORECAST2025259-2653.74433.78243.76347.028302400.030.010.04FF21.744470.744166437.2885966090120.56494035740.58417472005003163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-08 16:00:03FORECAST2025259-2654.84234.57444.70846.798046400.030.010.04FF22.842471.842166437.1946355172820.4598548387690.62602803366622163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-08 12:00:03FORECAST2025259-2650.5433.96242.25143.8246517636850.0996063530.0996063530.010.109606353FF18.54467.54166435.976325923219.1065106607950.45826825932716162132126DRYL
2025-06-08 08:00:03FORECAST2025259-2648.30834.73641.52243.96560240.0996063530.0996063530.010.109606353FF16.308463.308166436.0342865892319.170510076950.37225148233419162132126DRYL
2025-06-08 04:00:04FORECAST2025259-2645.6834.75440.21743.5530385166670.1744095430.1744095430.010.184409543FF13.68460.68166435.8645766180318.9832266934960.27885948345383162132126DRYL
2025-06-08 00:00:03FORECAST2025259-2652.71837.02244.8740.3909585043680.1149606920.2049606920.010.214960692FF20.718459.718166434.5579191197717.5522108789110.54417253073915163132127DRYL
2025-06-07 20:00:04FORECAST2025259-2652.71837.02244.8746.0717681043680.1149606920.2049606920.010.214960692FF20.718461.718166436.897901183320.1286587886020.54417253073915163132127DRYL
2025-06-07 16:00:03FORECAST2025259-2649.4636.33842.89946.7347044283560.1251969180.3251969180.010.335196918FF17.46450.46166437.1687777748520.4309536146130.41613917146924162132126DRYL
2025-06-07 12:00:04FORECAST2025259-2644.4233.7139.06544.42396960.5204727220.7504727220.040.790472722FF12.42443.42166436.2226295205119.3787408326510.23852172082729161133127.5DRYL
2025-06-07 08:00:04FORECAST2025259-2644.27632.73838.50744.69634080.5287404430.7687404430.040.808740443FF12.276442.276166436.3344429374119.5025529643090.23412374841674161133127.5DRYL
2025-06-07 04:00:04FORECAST2025259-2643.32234.77239.04744.5786614333330.4145671530.5145671530.040.554567153FF11.322442.322166436.2861428708219.4490522510930.20614706296196161133127.5DRYL
2025-06-07 00:00:03FORECAST2025259-2634.46631.4632.96343.69338993413600.110.090.2FF2.466430.466166435.9223307523919.0469243785620.044688993336952161132125DRYL
2025-06-06 20:00:03FORECAST2025259-2634.53831.9133.22447.59182881453500.110.090.2FF2.538430.538166437.5183244299620.8222971994930.045367927399511161132125DRYL
2025-06-06 16:00:04FORECAST2025259-2640.94633.42237.18447.81548433413600.110.090.2FF8.946434.946166437.6094089829720.9245058396960.14562820363774161132125DRYL
2025-06-06 12:00:03FORECAST2025259-2636.78830.52433.65645.335008853324000.020.02FF4.788442.788166436.5963248352919.7930982517370.071060016645615161131122.5DRYL
2025-06-06 08:00:02FORECAST2025259-2636.78830.52433.65645.681657336424000.020.02FF4.788439.788166436.7382881404519.9509288245280.071060016645615161131122.5DRYL
2025-06-06 04:00:04FORECAST2025259-2634.46632.88233.67446.42396498699600.030.010.04FF2.466423.466166437.0418660503920.2892162873750.044688993336952161131122.5DRYL