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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, June 15, 2025

[ Saturday, June 14, 2025 | Index | Today | Monday, June 16, 2025 ]

DAY 258 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/16/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 58.92°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 37.34°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 48.13°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.722
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 27
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 480

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.03 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.07 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.10 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 37 in
SWE DAY: 165
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 432.41 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 15.89 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -27

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 3
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-06-16 04:00:02OBSERVATION2025258-2758.9200837.3400648.1300736.75517583333300.030.070.1FF26.92008479.92008165432.41483631407 15.8934833416660.7218132322254516 4131124DRYL
2025-06-16 00:00:02FORECAST2025258-2755.86834.35845.11335.250349600.030.070.1FF23.868476.868165431.7810988358815.2204346846370.62211231734346163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-15 12:00:02FORECAST2025258-2755.09433.7144.40237.326019200.030.070.1FF23.094476.094165432.6546063599716.1492741439610.59512084776712163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-15 08:00:02FORECAST2025258-2755.8533.83644.84337.27209600.030.070.1FF23.85476.85165432.631971986516.125100392550.62149077210764163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-15 04:00:04FORECAST2025258-2755.9433.15244.54637.38543493333300.030.070.1FF23.94476.94165432.6795426459316.1759128885740.62459532488922163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-15 00:00:01FORECAST2025258-2757.45233.2645.35637.41749200.020.070.09FF25.452479.452165432.6929951656116.1902866850650.67540789238556163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-14 20:00:02FORECAST2025258-2756.7534.37645.56339.196524800.020.070.09FF24.75480.75165433.4378390671916.9892570082550.65215237220047163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-14 16:00:01FORECAST2025258-2756.17434.03445.10439.246708800.020.070.09FF24.174480.174165433.4588012886317.0118313509720.63262904820189163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-14 12:00:01FORECAST2025258-2755.95835.61845.78838.189105600.020.070.09FF23.958479.958165433.0164670442716.5365115864920.62521527595889163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-14 08:00:01FORECAST2025258-2755.8534.93445.39238.2472600.020.070.09FF23.85480.85165433.0408205510116.5626248542280.62149077210764163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-14 04:00:03FORECAST2025258-2756.44434.745.57237.889614300.020.070.09FF24.444481.444165432.8909911186316.4020726874290.64182693441606163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-14 00:00:02FORECAST2025258-2756.3934.745.54539.6741784000.070.07FF24.39484.39165433.6372501717617.20420162420.63999372782871163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-13 20:00:01FORECAST2025258-2756.91234.2545.58141.06768000.070.07FF24.912488.912165434.2176294692617.8323106574020.6575740381743163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-13 16:00:01FORECAST2025258-2757.21835.04246.1340.9765616000.070.07FF25.218489.218165434.179742316817.7911929565170.66772616730677163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-13 12:00:01FORECAST2025258-2757.05636.15846.60740.0987352000.070.07FF25.056489.056165433.814291419517.3954043976060.66236624569327163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-13 08:00:01FORECAST2025258-2757.3835.79846.58940.0383176000.070.07FF25.38490.38165433.7891087789217.3681861087110.67305202318872163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-13 04:00:03FORECAST2025258-2758.08236.26647.17439.456188104348000.070.07FF26.082492.082165433.5462734664817.1060833178320.69571490920165163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-13 00:00:02FORECAST2025258-2757.9236.5947.25541.520104000.070.07FF25.92487.92165434.4056181696318.0365664445870.69054710558648163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-12 20:00:02FORECAST2025258-2757.81236.42847.1243.8302016000.070.07FF25.812487.812165435.3621366353619.0820102177340.68708078083615163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-12 16:00:02FORECAST2025258-2757.81237.41847.61543.8301032000.070.07FF25.812487.812165435.3620960112919.0819655975430.68708078083615163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-12 12:00:02FORECAST2025258-2757.81237.90447.85842.4869432000.070.07FF25.812489.812165434.8066304252818.4736046098620.68708078083615163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-12 08:00:02FORECAST2025258-2757.25436.8647.05742.7000776000.070.07FF25.254487.254165434.894898981518.5700459343540.6689126677498163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-12 04:00:03FORECAST2025258-2756.98437.23847.11142.553684816667000.070.07FF24.984485.984165434.8342762743818.5038007400640.65997337074221163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-12 00:00:03FORECAST2025258-2754.7736.0545.4143.092812000.070.07FF22.77479.77165435.0574228903218.7478477338170.58367807736184163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-11 20:00:02FORECAST2025258-2754.6835.25844.96947.1520288000.070.07FF22.68480.68165436.7277709508620.5926004336350.58048646055282163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-11 16:00:02FORECAST2025258-2755.20234.26844.73547.1268384000.070.07FF23.202481.202165436.7174582389320.5811130808850.59891761832764163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-11 12:00:02FORECAST2025258-2756.37234.41245.39244.8701328000.070.07FF24.372483.372165435.7909017266419.5539956335060.6393819406331163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-11 08:00:03FORECAST2025258-2754.7734.66444.71744.8628512000.070.07FF22.77482.77165435.7879034483419.5506878671630.58367807736184163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-11 04:00:04FORECAST2025258-2754.9534.55644.75344.644575033333000.070.07FF22.95482.95165435.6980001026819.4515520574570.59004458726935163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-11 00:00:02FORECAST2025258-2753.00633.65643.33143.067504000.070.07FF21.006477.006165435.0469546552118.7363864598010.52037896459078163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-10 20:00:02FORECAST2025258-2755.3134.0744.6948.8435648000.070.07FF23.31477.31165437.4187621796821.3650916552590.6027050719827163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-10 16:00:02FORECAST2025258-2752.8834.0743.47548.8806616000.070.07FF20.88475.88165437.4338829518621.3820576049440.51581844471995163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-10 12:00:02FORECAST2025258-2752.32235.31243.81745.860372000.070.07FF20.322475.322165436.1981274142120.0042083889190.49560517348088162131123DRYL
2025-06-10 08:00:02FORECAST2025258-2749.7335.13242.43146.0185008000.070.07FF17.73473.73165436.2630614696420.0761720432510.40267738864148162131123DRYL
2025-06-10 04:00:04FORECAST2025258-2753.94235.09644.51945.27071789424900.010.070.08FF21.942478.942165435.9557616016619.7360302978410.55413387275981163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-10 00:00:03FORECAST2025258-2750.14434.14242.14341.1819832000.070.07FF18.144470.144165434.2651444949917.8838998849380.41729309203877162131123DRYL
2025-06-09 20:00:02FORECAST2025258-2751.36834.35842.86348.4696256000.070.07FF19.368470.368165437.26626379621.1941320937030.4611015089498162131123DRYL
2025-06-09 16:00:03FORECAST2025258-2751.18833.36842.27849.0396568000.070.07FF19.188468.188165437.498673757821.4547848115370.45461622483229162131123DRYL
2025-06-09 12:00:02FORECAST2025258-2755.2236.53645.87845.2622776000.070.07FF23.22468.22165435.952289747619.7321935589120.59954951683574163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-09 08:00:03FORECAST2025258-2755.1337.1346.1344.713304000.070.07FF23.13471.13165435.726313489919.4827631158730.59638745204617163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-09 04:00:03FORECAST2025258-2755.77837.05846.41845.20726425000.070.07FF23.778468.778165435.9296585798619.7071872698320.61900146275638163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-09 00:00:02FORECAST2025258-2751.85434.2543.05241.4680720.0287401730.0287401730.070.098740173FF19.854462.854165434.3840091149518.0130673656270.47865865442099162131123DRYL
2025-06-08 20:00:02FORECAST2025258-2749.56835.1542.35948.57219840.0287401730.0287401730.070.098740173FF17.568466.568165437.3081090410121.2410162342690.39699381733684162131123DRYL
2025-06-08 16:00:03FORECAST2025258-2751.20635.76243.48448.481080.0287401730.0287401730.070.098740173FF19.206467.206165437.2709372342121.1993672897270.45526423807807162131123DRYL
2025-06-08 12:00:03FORECAST2025258-2750.84636.7743.80844.8932192000.070.07FF18.846466.846165435.8004074372719.5644832185310.44232885934324162131123DRYL
2025-06-08 08:00:03FORECAST2025258-2748.8336.42842.62945.1997352000.070.07FF16.83464.83165435.9265610639419.7037651267370.37139461594556162131123DRYL
2025-06-08 04:00:04FORECAST2025258-2749.1936.7742.9844.617824916667000.070.07FF17.19465.19165435.6869788653119.4394053414840.3838188473929162131123DRYL
2025-06-08 00:00:03FORECAST2025258-2746.8533.6240.23542.0705481043680.0925197350.0925197350.070.162519735FF14.85456.85165434.6340445249618.2852924779840.30572954396024162132126DRYL
2025-06-07 20:00:03FORECAST2025258-2746.8533.11639.98347.7513577043680.0925197350.0925197350.070.162519735FF14.85458.85165436.9729360423120.8660509760850.30572954396024162132126DRYL
2025-06-07 16:00:03FORECAST2025258-2745.24833.4439.34448.1047276283560.185039470.195039470.070.26503947FF13.248451.248165437.1173128714821.0274092773220.2567166215755162132126DRYL
2025-06-07 12:00:04FORECAST2025258-2742.06235.5138.78645.32964320.2259843740.2559843740.070.325984374FF10.062449.062165435.9799980268319.7628177528930.17285157497117161132125DRYL
2025-06-07 08:00:03FORECAST2025258-2741.75633.87237.81445.51945680.23622060.26622060.070.3362206FF9.756447.756165436.0580451419919.8491253481330.16583254968003161132125DRYL
2025-06-07 04:00:04FORECAST2025258-2745.46434.37639.9245.4655406333330.1011811570.1311811570.070.201181157FF13.464449.464165436.0358798438419.8246070126310.2630792361156162132126DRYL
2025-06-07 00:00:03FORECAST2025258-2746.72434.1640.44243.7174979341360.0129921330.1229921330.140.262992133FF14.724445.724165435.3156006976919.0309088741980.30172840187163162132126DRYL
2025-06-06 20:00:03FORECAST2025258-2746.52635.61841.07247.6402416145350.0129921330.1229921330.140.262992133FF14.526445.526165436.9275104035820.8153321636640.29548890486247162132126DRYL
2025-06-06 16:00:03FORECAST2025258-2746.1335.58240.85647.9521619341360.0129921330.1229921330.140.262992133FF14.13444.13165437.0549947950220.9577318845340.28319116439336162132126DRYL
2025-06-06 12:00:03FORECAST2025258-2757.235.02446.11245.3769272533240.0027559070.0127559070.070.082755907FF25.2456.2165435.9994436934619.7843150389680.66713228556455163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-06 08:00:02FORECAST2025258-2757.235.02446.11245.7235757364240.0027559070.0127559070.070.082755907FF25.2453.2165436.1419323134919.9419686739660.66713228556455163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-06 04:00:04FORECAST2025258-2754.01436.08645.0546.4514185869960.007874020.027874020.070.09787402FF22.014439.014165436.4407015687720.2732897169730.55671736227476163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-06 00:00:03FORECAST2025258-2744.45634.55639.50645.7906398962810.0003937010.0203937010.070.090393701FF12.456429.456165436.1694843158119.9724797900520.23408956656885161131122.5DRYL
2025-06-05 20:00:03FORECAST2025258-2744.45634.55639.50649.5913598962810.0003937010.0203937010.070.090393701FF12.456429.456165437.7232908673321.7072932523860.23408956656885161131122.5DRYL
2025-06-05 16:00:03FORECAST2025258-2742.40434.53838.47149.3465312741730.0003937010.0203937010.070.090393701FF10.404427.404165437.6236516482921.595209212380.18091646155354161131122.5DRYL
2025-06-05 12:00:03FORECAST2025258-2735.0629.53432.29749.03044523868700.140.070.21FF3.06414.06165437.494920745421.4505707538110.057056364373517161132125DRYL
2025-06-05 08:00:04FORECAST2025258-2735.0629.53432.29748.46735388382400.140.070.21FF3.06419.06165437.2653369111121.19309382520.057056364373517161132125DRYL
2025-06-05 04:00:05FORECAST2025258-2734.03430.5632.29748.30933947116600.140.070.21FF2.034417.034165437.2008521877621.1208843854220.047116963592472161132125DRYL