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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, June 14, 2025

[ Friday, June 13, 2025 | Index | Today | Sunday, June 15, 2025 ]

DAY 257 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/15/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 45.27°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.56°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 38.42°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.258
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 13
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 492

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.01 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.03 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.07 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.10 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 39 in
SWE DAY: 164
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 432.77 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 16.92 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -28

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 3
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-06-15 04:00:03OBSERVATION2025257-2845.2699631.5600838.4150239.1075333333330.00999999999999090.0299999999999910.070.099999999999991FF13.26996492.26996164432.77437343134 16.9247382347790.2576240574416716 2131123DRYL
2025-06-15 00:00:01FORECAST2025257-2845.8630.86638.36339.21132400.020.070.09FF13.86492.86164432.8178994808616.9713628895430.27572919797312162131123DRYL
2025-06-14 12:00:01FORECAST2025257-2848.230.79439.49740.026627200.020.070.09FF16.2495.2164433.1594093381617.3379101957510.35307566609775162131123DRYL
2025-06-14 08:00:01FORECAST2025257-2848.63230.32639.47940.034499200.020.070.09FF16.632495.632164433.1627032735717.3414518976760.36817733447445162131123DRYL
2025-06-14 04:00:03FORECAST2025257-2849.04630.1139.57839.670752700.020.070.09FF17.046496.046164433.0104294979417.1778496651340.38284375235322162131123DRYL
2025-06-14 00:00:02FORECAST2025257-2849.74830.07439.91141.4224512000.070.07FF17.748498.748164433.7424453119817.9666752743040.408090382716162131123DRYL
2025-06-13 20:00:01FORECAST2025257-2850.7230.3840.5542.8622992000.070.07FF18.72502.72164434.3417081219718.6168842485630.44366473666551162141123.5DRYL
2025-06-13 16:00:01FORECAST2025257-2850.6330.8340.7342.8386832000.070.07FF18.63502.63164434.3318968424618.6062065324890.44034706613588162141123.5DRYL
2025-06-13 12:00:01FORECAST2025257-2851.02631.5541.28842.0303272000.070.07FF19.026503.026164433.9957098326118.2409816876610.45497300566762162141123.5DRYL
2025-06-13 08:00:01FORECAST2025257-2851.1731.02841.09941.973944000.070.07FF19.17504.17164433.9722348728218.2155262841070.46030776883359162141123.5DRYL
2025-06-13 04:00:03FORECAST2025257-2851.20631.17241.18941.488246504348000.070.07FF19.206505.206164433.7698770422517.9963515848890.46164261481706162141123.5DRYL
2025-06-13 00:00:02FORECAST2025257-2851.09831.17241.13543.5675128000.070.07FF19.098501.098164434.6344184569418.9359405894430.45763943326754162141123.5DRYL
2025-06-12 20:00:02FORECAST2025257-2851.24231.71241.47745.8793816000.070.07FF19.242501.242164435.5903285423519.9846149044640.46297789301679162141123.5DRYL
2025-06-12 16:00:02FORECAST2025257-2851.36831.94641.65745.8842032000.070.07FF19.368501.368164435.5923163146519.986806354140.46765455435663162141123.5DRYL
2025-06-12 12:00:02FORECAST2025257-2851.69232.2741.98144.5562952000.070.07FF19.692502.692164435.0439466743619.3839465129960.47969922387385162141123.5DRYL
2025-06-12 08:00:02FORECAST2025257-2851.0831.87441.47744.6641416000.070.07FF19.08501.08164435.0885516999919.4328566816670.45697264283925162141123.5DRYL
2025-06-12 04:00:03FORECAST2025257-2851.47631.96441.7244.525620816667000.070.07FF19.476500.476164435.0312575871619.3700368187240.47166670234246162141123.5DRYL
2025-06-12 00:00:02FORECAST2025257-2851.4431.04641.24344.8326224000.070.07FF19.44496.44164435.1582105257519.5092837367610.47032897991288162131123DRYL
2025-06-11 20:00:02FORECAST2025257-2851.54831.29841.42348.8683216000.070.07FF19.548496.548164436.8179028591121.3465577575560.47434309130571162131123DRYL
2025-06-11 16:00:02FORECAST2025257-2850.77431.15440.96448.8435248000.070.07FF18.774496.774164436.8077569654121.3352305101720.44565725112015162131123DRYL
2025-06-11 12:00:02FORECAST2025257-2850.28831.56840.92846.6227352000.070.07FF18.288498.288164435.8964992437920.322687058850.42778000163666162131123DRYL
2025-06-11 08:00:02FORECAST2025257-2850.21632.2741.24346.5640888000.070.07FF18.216499.216164435.8723651041520.2959995141760.42514317107253162141123.5DRYL
2025-06-11 04:00:04FORECAST2025257-2849.24432.37840.81146.338531033333000.070.07FF17.244499.244164435.7795101652920.1933823554850.38991942316082162141123.5DRYL
2025-06-11 00:00:02FORECAST2025257-2850.05432.68441.36944.5353368000.070.07FF18.054495.054164435.0352769097319.3744425770560.41922270367251162131123DRYL
2025-06-10 20:00:02FORECAST2025257-2850.86432.32441.59450.4188504000.070.07FF18.864492.864164437.4510518359522.0557791398390.44898113596628162131123DRYL
2025-06-10 16:00:02FORECAST2025257-2850.6332.82841.72950.4003512000.070.07FF18.63493.63164437.4435124887822.0473066595960.44034706613588162131123DRYL
2025-06-10 12:00:02FORECAST2025257-2850.03633.27841.65747.3933456000.070.07FF18.036494.036164436.2132867301920.6736070533160.41856597562406162131123DRYL
2025-06-10 08:00:02FORECAST2025257-2849.35233.04441.19847.2744784000.070.07FF17.352495.352164436.164462472920.6194474600230.39379447313015162131123DRYL
2025-06-10 04:00:04FORECAST2025257-2849.92833.11641.52246.76285549424900.010.070.08FF17.928495.928164435.9541469292320.386460774970.41463043351822162131123DRYL
2025-06-10 00:00:03FORECAST2025257-2850.6332.5441.58542.5772952000.070.07FF18.63490.63164434.2232637463618.4880520832360.44034706613588162131123DRYL
2025-06-09 20:00:02FORECAST2025257-2851.56633.3542.45849.9771136000.070.07FF19.566489.566164437.2709252422821.8535387048110.47501237425749162131123DRYL
2025-06-09 16:00:03FORECAST2025257-2850.84631.17241.00950.4509096000.070.07FF18.846487.846164437.464116720922.070462605930.4483160648601162131123DRYL
2025-06-09 12:00:02FORECAST2025257-2851.51230.50641.00947.128532000.070.07FF19.512483.512164436.1044953711520.5529646654430.47300474449033162131123DRYL
2025-06-09 08:00:02FORECAST2025257-2851.69231.33441.51346.6358432000.070.07FF19.692486.692164435.9018929503920.3286523302180.47969922387385162131123DRYL
2025-06-09 04:00:03FORECAST2025257-2851.27830.90241.0947.14308745000.070.07FF19.278484.278164436.1104769767820.5595943539780.46431358847621162131123DRYL
2025-06-09 00:00:02FORECAST2025257-2849.42431.58640.50543.0187576000.070.07FF17.424482.424164434.4066939826718.6876362682580.39638371929902162131123DRYL
2025-06-08 20:00:02FORECAST2025257-2850.91833.24242.0850.0049024000.070.07FF18.918487.918164437.2822626128121.8662568632050.45097720213696162131123DRYL
2025-06-08 16:00:03FORECAST2025257-2851.72833.87242.850.0404248000.070.07FF19.728486.728164437.2967539989321.8825153337680.48103886791934162131123DRYL
2025-06-08 12:00:02FORECAST2025257-2853.34834.08843.71846.4319984000.070.07FF21.348487.348164435.817994154120.2359004072550.54131469605157163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-08 08:00:02FORECAST2025257-2851.90833.49442.70146.5606072000.070.07FF19.908486.908164435.8709322446620.2944152661420.48773999823097162131123DRYL
2025-06-08 04:00:03FORECAST2025257-2851.7134.01642.86346.001033716667000.070.07FF19.71486.71164435.6404738949120.0399121279840.48036901818201162131123DRYL
2025-06-08 00:00:03FORECAST2025257-2851.92631.2841.60343.1654449043680.0003937010.0003937010.070.070393701FF19.926480.926164434.4675979125418.7539871604270.48841033296083162131123DRYL
2025-06-07 20:00:03FORECAST2025257-2851.38631.67641.53148.8179153043680.0003937010.0003937010.070.070393701FF19.386483.386164436.7972778772121.3235325165880.4683230286369162131123DRYL
2025-06-07 16:00:03FORECAST2025257-2849.42431.7340.57749.0233900283560.0133858340.0133858340.070.083385834FF17.424477.424164436.8813363848921.4174041497060.39638371929902162131123DRYL
2025-06-07 12:00:03FORECAST2025257-2850.25231.4640.85646.214652800.030.070.1FF18.252478.252164435.7284908114120.1370409179170.42646117552671162131123DRYL
2025-06-07 08:00:03FORECAST2025257-2849.35232.1840.76646.276546400.030.070.1FF17.352477.352164435.7539837489320.1651894479420.39379447313015162131123DRYL
2025-06-07 04:00:04FORECAST2025257-2849.04632.66640.85646.41264063333300.030.070.1FF17.046475.046164435.8100245922320.2270940558030.38284375235322162131123DRYL
2025-06-07 00:00:03FORECAST2025257-2850.95435.6943.32244.8691715341360.0992126520.1792126520.070.249212652FF18.954469.954164435.1733179260919.5258662491050.45230860512306162132126DRYL
2025-06-06 20:00:03FORECAST2025257-2850.77436.37443.57448.8837224145350.0992126520.1792126520.070.249212652FF18.774469.774164436.8242039564421.3535931301570.44565725112015162132126DRYL
2025-06-06 16:00:03FORECAST2025257-2850.7234.66442.69249.1149547341360.1011811570.1811811570.070.251181157FF18.72468.72164436.9187808418721.4592461435420.44366473666551162132126DRYL
2025-06-06 12:00:03FORECAST2025257-2853.67232.43243.05247.26837205332400.010.070.08FF21.672469.672164436.1619539157620.6166655131950.55330067479209163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-06 08:00:02FORECAST2025257-2854.71632.25243.48447.60114613642400.010.070.08FF22.716466.716164436.2986046200520.7683136376370.59153870732348163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-06 04:00:04FORECAST2025257-2845.78832.16238.97548.0952889869960.0224409570.0224409570.070.092440957FF13.788455.788164436.5013069876420.9936565027720.27348687604432162131123DRYL
2025-06-06 00:00:03FORECAST2025257-2845.98631.74838.86746.008786080090.0248031630.0248031630.070.094803163FF13.986455.986164435.6436689162820.0434363703150.27967484925859162131123DRYL
2025-06-05 20:00:03FORECAST2025257-2845.98631.74838.86749.809506080090.0248031630.0248031630.070.094803163FF13.986455.986164437.2025271762521.7768419356160.27967484925859162131123DRYL
2025-06-05 16:00:02FORECAST2025257-2844.88830.75837.82349.5461848741730.0248031630.0248031630.070.094803163FF12.888455.888164437.09501099221.6563902221880.24624138157542161131122.5DRYL
2025-06-05 12:00:03FORECAST2025257-2850.03628.07639.05649.0562260386870.0980315490.1380315490.070.208031549FF18.036450.036164436.8947653395521.4324083636160.41856597562406162132126DRYL
2025-06-05 08:00:04FORECAST2025257-2850.03628.07639.05648.4931346838240.0980315490.1380315490.070.208031549FF18.036455.036164436.6643225176321.1752218034680.41856597562406162132126DRYL
2025-06-05 04:00:05FORECAST2025257-2849.5528.52639.03848.3220330711660.098425250.138425250.070.20842525FF17.55453.55164436.5942345702221.0971210415830.40092584752179162132126DRYL
2025-06-05 00:00:02FORECAST2025257-2839.63233.90836.7746.5827288000.070.07FF7.632461.632164435.8800362181420.3044815164840.11948982225504161131122.5DRYL
2025-06-04 20:00:03FORECAST2025257-2839.63233.90836.7748.952752000.070.07FF7.632458.632164436.8524437290521.3851293384620.11948982225504161131122.5DRYL
2025-06-04 16:00:03FORECAST2025257-2836.53632.10834.32249.5658824000.070.07FF4.536449.536164437.1030561402121.6653986773260.071156658096618161131122.5DRYL
2025-06-04 12:00:03FORECAST2025257-2836.26632.6334.44847.7639816000.070.07FF4.266458.266164436.365429472520.8425503442010.067782382766363161131122.5DRYL
2025-06-04 08:00:03FORECAST2025257-2836.26632.6334.44847.445756000.070.07FF4.266460.266164436.2348094234820.6974903266130.067782382766363161131122.5DRYL
2025-06-04 04:00:05FORECAST2025257-2836.37434.41235.39347.714944916667000.070.07FF4.374456.374164436.3453085757320.8201923633370.069117005837812161131122.5DRYL