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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, June 13, 2025

[ Thursday, June 12, 2025 | Index | Today | Saturday, June 14, 2025 ]

DAY 256 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/14/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 38.66°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 33.95°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 36.30°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.109
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 7
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 515

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.02 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.02 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.07 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.09 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 41 in
SWE DAY: 163
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 432.81 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 17.61 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -29

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-06-14 04:00:02OBSERVATION2025256-2938.6633.9499436.3049740.69873750.0199999999999820.0199999999999820.070.089999999999982FF6.66514.66163432.81427263514 17.6149944682310.1089846780040916 1141123DRYL
2025-06-14 00:00:02FORECAST2025256-2941.48631.20836.34742.4729696000.070.07FF9.486517.486163433.5565657961518.414434838940.16998690416298161141123DRYL
2025-06-13 12:00:01FORECAST2025256-2943.9731.40637.68843.261016000.070.07FF11.97519.97163433.8851928295618.7703142691630.23877329239765161141123DRYL
2025-06-13 08:00:01FORECAST2025256-2945.03231.33438.18343.1997128000.070.07FF13.032521.032163433.8596520745218.7426123651270.27226538088226162141123.5DRYL
2025-06-13 04:00:03FORECAST2025256-2945.5931.71238.65142.731825704348000.070.07FF13.59521.59163433.6645851861118.5312794683210.29075199815015162141123.5DRYL
2025-06-13 00:00:02FORECAST2025256-2945.26632.41438.8444.80105520.0011811030.0011811030.070.071181103FF13.266518.266163434.5255162869319.4672016409790.27994645597682162141123.5DRYL
2025-06-12 20:00:02FORECAST2025256-2945.28431.74838.51647.13634320.0007874020.0007874020.070.070787402FF13.284518.284163435.4917250938420.5274874147830.28054162714801162141123.5DRYL
2025-06-12 16:00:02FORECAST2025256-2945.39231.29838.34547.15710560.0011811030.0011811030.070.071181103FF13.392518.392163435.5002897113420.5369331507480.28412544160181162141123.5DRYL
2025-06-12 12:00:01FORECAST2025256-2945.62631.24438.43545.858324000.070.07FF13.626518.626163434.9636637998419.946704622760.29196453923969162141123.5DRYL
2025-06-12 08:00:02FORECAST2025256-2944.56430.90237.73345.905064000.070.07FF12.564517.564163434.9830063883119.9679227471680.25722389072505162141123.5DRYL
2025-06-12 04:00:03FORECAST2025256-2944.49230.70437.59845.806985616667000.070.07FF12.492517.492163434.9424155987519.923400975410.25494870949762162141123.5DRYL
2025-06-12 00:00:02FORECAST2025256-2943.71830.07436.89646.0531760.0031496080.0031496080.070.073149608FF11.718512.718163435.0442849638120.0351710232330.23116983121234161141123DRYL
2025-06-11 20:00:02FORECAST2025256-2943.66429.98436.82450.113672000.070.07FF11.664512.664163436.715291502921.8854068757610.22955824521782161141123DRYL
2025-06-11 16:00:02FORECAST2025256-2944.99629.69637.34650.043808000.070.07FF12.996513.996163436.6866860033621.8534646705090.271093027601162141123.5DRYL
2025-06-11 12:00:02FORECAST2025256-2945.69830.3838.03947.8009768000.070.07FF13.698515.698163435.7656664699720.8300245131680.29439665171597162141123.5DRYL
2025-06-11 08:00:02FORECAST2025256-2946.29230.84838.5747.7473488000.070.07FF14.292517.292163435.7435798180420.8056006929330.3148083654843162141123.5DRYL
2025-06-11 04:00:04FORECAST2025256-2946.88631.20839.04747.472984633333000.070.07FF14.886517.886163435.6305360591920.6806817441490.33580165309932162141123.5DRYL
2025-06-11 00:00:02FORECAST2025256-2946.88631.53239.20945.758252000.070.07FF14.886512.886163434.9222429086319.9012815914180.33580165309932162141123.5DRYL
2025-06-10 20:00:01FORECAST2025256-2946.27432.19839.23651.61628000.070.07FF14.274510.274163437.3293005151622.5733116275950.3141810121651162141123.5DRYL
2025-06-10 16:00:02FORECAST2025256-2946.8531.80239.32651.61805120.0019685050.0019685050.070.071968505FF14.85510.85163437.3300228967122.574123513180.33451379282817162141123.5DRYL
2025-06-10 12:00:02FORECAST2025256-2947.4832.37839.92948.64204160.0011811030.0011811030.070.071181103FF15.48512.48163436.1116650804121.2133617550870.35731994025995162141123.5DRYL
2025-06-10 08:00:02FORECAST2025256-2944.36632.66638.51648.4460288000.070.07FF12.366514.366163436.0310950605621.1239749889990.25099259085887162141123.5DRYL
2025-06-10 04:00:04FORECAST2025256-2945.1432.68438.91248.0014162942490.007874020.007874020.070.07787402FF13.14514.14163435.8481906954620.9213304426680.27579746762336162141123.5DRYL
2025-06-10 00:00:02FORECAST2025256-2945.03232.2738.65143.84547440.0047244120.0047244120.070.074724412FF13.032508.032163434.1284961627319.0345698648130.27226538088226162141123.5DRYL
2025-06-09 20:00:02FORECAST2025256-2945.10432.25238.67851.356780.0047244120.0047244120.070.074724412FF13.104506.104163437.2234286621922.454387436650.27461761022528162141123.5DRYL
2025-06-09 16:00:03FORECAST2025256-2944.92431.20838.06651.68799440.0023622060.0023622060.070.072362206FF12.924504.924163437.3585465391222.6061861043060.26875588985931162141123.5DRYL
2025-06-09 12:00:02FORECAST2025256-2941.97230.88436.42848.42701840.0023622060.0023622060.070.072362206FF9.972499.972163436.0232788025721.11530734540.18234184915878161141123DRYL
2025-06-09 08:00:02FORECAST2025256-2942.9831.53237.25647.96955680.0023622060.0023622060.070.072362206FF10.98502.98163435.8350764275820.9068154541250.20969679921681161141123DRYL
2025-06-09 04:00:03FORECAST2025256-2942.4431.1936.81548.450921850.0023622060.0023622060.070.072362206FF10.44501.44163436.0331068109821.1262059821110.19475434873414161141123DRYL
2025-06-09 00:00:02FORECAST2025256-2947.44431.2839.36244.1949328000.070.07FF15.444501.444163434.2737992382619.1927013741360.35600196746125162141123.5DRYL
2025-06-08 20:00:02FORECAST2025256-2949.96431.13640.5551.3841752000.070.07FF17.964504.964163437.234608760922.4669397400730.451542309046162141123.5DRYL
2025-06-08 16:00:02FORECAST2025256-2949.24431.5540.39751.5031408000.070.07FF17.244503.244163437.2831501094522.5214556495550.42369440807686162141123.5DRYL
2025-06-08 12:00:02FORECAST2025256-2948.1131.2839.69548.0506784000.070.07FF16.11502.11163435.8684662808920.9437754979640.380647286567162141123.5DRYL
2025-06-08 08:00:02FORECAST2025256-2946.29232.79239.54248.0496944000.070.07FF14.292503.292163435.8680613052520.9433271444380.3148083654843162141123.5DRYL
2025-06-08 04:00:03FORECAST2025256-2947.2133.04440.12747.534597716667000.070.07FF15.21503.21163435.6559287940820.7087293181070.34747764163189162141123.5DRYL
2025-06-08 00:00:02FORECAST2025256-2944.90632.46838.68744.4939512000.070.07FF12.906496.906163434.3980272579519.3280846261910.26817318889283162131123DRYL
2025-06-07 20:00:03FORECAST2025256-2945.533.15239.32650.108636000.070.07FF13.5499.5163436.7132297051921.8831042636820.28773098245231162141123.5DRYL
2025-06-07 16:00:03FORECAST2025256-2943.84433.06238.45350.2008523239880.0007874020.0007874020.070.070787402FF11.844495.844163436.7509799745421.9252714480590.23495459475248161131122.5DRYL
2025-06-07 12:00:03FORECAST2025256-2943.6131.06437.33747.40352160.0322834820.0322834820.070.102283482FF11.61495.61163435.6019033412220.6490642340360.22795296247926161131122.5DRYL
2025-06-07 08:00:03FORECAST2025256-2944.5130.30837.40947.3657360.0307086780.0307086780.070.100708678FF12.51495.51163435.5863259650620.6318669208710.25551651729114162131123DRYL
2025-06-07 04:00:04FORECAST2025256-2943.68230.43437.05847.4960246333330.0307086780.0307086780.070.100708678FF11.682493.682163435.6400320499920.6911696935120.23009474119518161131122.5DRYL
2025-06-07 00:00:02FORECAST2025256-2947.91229.44438.67846.4108043341360.0051181130.0751181130.070.145118113FF15.912486.912163435.1921520121120.1976178147860.37326435393037162131123DRYL
2025-06-06 20:00:03FORECAST2025256-2946.99428.45437.72450.4912832145350.0051181130.0751181130.070.145118113FF14.994486.994163436.8698148768522.0581175508290.33967676046689162131123DRYL
2025-06-06 16:00:03FORECAST2025256-2945.84228.41837.1350.5942019341360.0055118140.0755118140.070.145511814FF13.842485.842163436.9119048471622.1052091412660.29928869758525162131123DRYL
2025-06-06 12:00:02FORECAST2025256-2946.00429.4837.74248.8831160533240.0074803190.0074803190.070.077480319FF14.004484.004163436.2107024629521.3233383921980.30483585585424162131123DRYL
2025-06-06 08:00:02FORECAST2025256-2944.7825.41235.09649.2607605364240.0074803190.0074803190.070.077480319FF12.78479.78163436.3657232226121.4957073979730.2641121422663162131123DRYL
2025-06-06 04:00:04FORECAST2025256-2943.89826.54635.22249.017027016667000.070.07FF11.898477.898163436.2656891137821.3844470697350.23658704049821161131122.5DRYL
2025-06-06 00:00:03FORECAST2025256-2943.3431.13637.23846.8649592000.070.07FF11.34478.34163435.3797359818820.4040535632980.22002178778491161131122.5DRYL
2025-06-05 20:00:02FORECAST2025256-2943.3431.13637.23850.6656792000.070.07FF11.34478.34163436.9411299458922.1379191191240.22002178778491161131122.5DRYL
2025-06-05 16:00:02FORECAST2025256-2943.14229.8436.49150.2891024000.070.07FF11.142479.142163436.7870983160321.9656311142140.21430742627571161131122.5DRYL
2025-06-05 12:00:03FORECAST2025256-2941.14427.80634.47549.2594196980740.0421260070.0421260070.070.112126007FF9.144468.144163436.3651730796421.4950952023530.161621539918161131122.5DRYL
2025-06-05 08:00:03FORECAST2025256-2941.14427.80634.47548.6960796980740.0421260070.0421260070.070.112126007FF9.144473.144163436.1338701006121.2380096974490.161621539918161131122.5DRYL
2025-06-05 04:00:04FORECAST2025256-2941.25228.38234.81748.4929271699860.0429134090.0429134090.070.112913409FF9.252472.252163436.0503760371421.1453591276140.16423382229148161131122.5DRYL
2025-06-05 00:00:02FORECAST2025256-2948.8333.51241.17146.7333792000.070.07FF16.83489.83163435.3254104867420.3442274836720.40784366611074162131123DRYL
2025-06-04 20:00:03FORECAST2025256-2948.8333.51241.17149.1034024000.070.07FF16.83486.83163436.3011467369821.4238707758070.40784366611074162131123DRYL
2025-06-04 16:00:03FORECAST2025256-2947.69633.13440.41549.6332864000.070.07FF15.696480.696163436.5184972003721.6658475904430.36526304711692162131123DRYL
2025-06-04 12:00:03FORECAST2025256-2951.6232.73842.17947.8628736000.070.07FF19.62489.62163435.791154881220.8582169620770.51627668959571163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-04 08:00:03FORECAST2025256-2951.00832.66641.83747.544648000.070.07FF19.008492.008163435.6600704623920.7133046977890.49231217447782162131123DRYL
2025-06-04 04:00:05FORECAST2025256-2948.95632.19840.57747.770639316667000.070.07FF16.956487.956163435.7531723695920.8162076283610.41265312469896162131123DRYL
2025-06-04 00:00:03FORECAST2025256-2937.36431.11834.24150.2189832000.070.07FF5.364466.364163436.7584011068321.9335628076430.08700896370951161131122.5DRYL
2025-06-03 20:00:03FORECAST2025256-2937.05832.43234.74552.3728216000.070.07FF5.058468.058163437.6375594140522.9203138246520.082338641002233161131122.5DRYL
2025-06-03 16:00:02FORECAST2025256-2935.61829.04832.33352.2761928000.070.07FF3.618467.618163437.5982202296122.875968929660.062854720232409161131122.5DRYL
2025-06-03 12:00:03FORECAST2025256-2935.8733.0834.47553.2794339140540.1177165990.2077165990.070.277716599FF3.87454.87163438.0061864062823.336721662580.06597810863467161132125DRYL
2025-06-03 08:00:03FORECAST2025256-2940.4636.24838.35453.1200137274130.1177165990.2077165990.070.277716599FF8.46462.46163437.9414279298523.2634546634370.1457078716199161132125DRYL
2025-06-03 04:00:04FORECAST2025256-2946.7644.47445.61752.23836273876200.130.070.2FF14.76480.76163437.5828163551522.8586098890090.33130267163758162132126DRYL