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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, June 12, 2025

[ Wednesday, June 11, 2025 | Index | Today | Friday, June 13, 2025 ]

DAY 255 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/13/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 51.98°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 35.48°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 43.73°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.452
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 20
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 521

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.21 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.21 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 44 in
SWE DAY: 162
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 433.39 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 18.88 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -30

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-06-13 04:00:02OBSERVATION2025255-3051.9835.4799443.7299743.574031304348000.210.21FF19.98520.98162433.3915967479 18.8846190037340.4516898674780716 2141123.5DRYL
2025-06-13 00:00:01FORECAST2025255-3048.70436.28442.49445.679472000.210.21FF16.704517.704162434.2690097585919.8371790717350.33311731856983162141123.5DRYL
2025-06-12 12:00:01FORECAST2025255-3048.99234.6141.80146.70604000.210.21FF16.992517.992162434.6951189604820.3028876139730.34307896940641162141123.5DRYL
2025-06-12 08:00:01FORECAST2025255-3048.95634.39441.67546.6925592000.210.21FF16.956517.956162434.6895305286120.2967666378270.34182760876953162141123.5DRYL
2025-06-12 04:00:03FORECAST2025255-3048.81234.30441.55846.569684016667000.210.21FF16.812517.812162434.6385841072120.2409815233240.33683963056698162141123.5DRYL
2025-06-12 00:00:02FORECAST2025255-3047.8433.3540.59546.7220008000.210.21FF15.84513.84162434.7017352227520.3101348208390.30395332116428162141123.5DRYL
2025-06-11 20:00:01FORECAST2025255-3048.23633.85441.04550.800504000.210.21FF16.236514.236162436.3836441975922.1685090625940.3171802955375162141123.5DRYL
2025-06-11 16:00:02FORECAST2025255-3048.14634.17841.16250.794108000.210.21FF16.146514.146162436.381020207422.1655846695650.31415278585586162141123.5DRYL
2025-06-11 12:00:02FORECAST2025255-3048.50634.741.60348.6172048000.210.21FF16.506514.506162435.4854541398221.1720855113370.32633578938377162141123.5DRYL
2025-06-11 08:00:02FORECAST2025255-3048.66835.1541.90948.6434776000.210.21FF16.668515.668162435.4962921737921.1840541332390.33188016734538162141123.5DRYL
2025-06-11 04:00:03FORECAST2025255-3048.70435.36642.03548.423528633333000.210.21FF16.704515.704162435.4055366845421.0838724727560.33311731856983162141123.5DRYL
2025-06-11 00:00:01FORECAST2025255-3049.22635.52842.37746.7208008000.210.21FF17.226511.226162434.7012377936820.3095899384720.35125424856406162141123.5DRYL
2025-06-10 20:00:01FORECAST2025255-3048.57835.85242.21552.5849296000.210.21FF16.578508.578162437.1140510413122.9856116011780.32879531719798162141123.5DRYL
2025-06-10 16:00:02FORECAST2025255-3048.50635.47441.9952.5998864000.210.21FF16.506508.506162437.1201592272122.9924707185010.32633578938377162141123.5DRYL
2025-06-10 12:00:02FORECAST2025255-3049.29835.54642.42249.659596000.210.21FF17.298510.298162435.9149060777821.64735812620.35378383633183162141123.5DRYL
2025-06-10 08:00:01FORECAST2025255-3049.71236.4143.06149.2825272000.210.21FF17.712514.712162435.7596897666121.4753387635860.3684513611177162141123.5DRYL
2025-06-10 04:00:04FORECAST2025255-3049.2836.80643.04348.91914055000.210.21FF17.28514.28162435.6099648336421.3096650946780.35315082902401162141123.5DRYL
2025-06-10 00:00:02FORECAST2025255-3048.79436.42842.61144.7289096000.210.21FF16.794507.794162433.8734571082819.4066866408360.33621812271499162141123.5DRYL
2025-06-09 20:00:02FORECAST2025255-3049.17236.51842.84552.232048000.210.21FF17.172506.172162436.969870891822.8238312709750.34936136317217162141123.5DRYL
2025-06-09 16:00:02FORECAST2025255-3048.235.45641.82852.420484000.210.21FF16.2505.2162437.0468780371822.9102088773980.3159678091401162141123.5DRYL
2025-06-09 12:00:02FORECAST2025255-3046.59835.27640.93749.000592000.210.21FF14.598502.598162435.6435370077621.3467912143540.26415937337905162141123.5DRYL
2025-06-09 08:00:02FORECAST2025255-3047.24635.74441.49548.683252000.210.21FF15.246505.246162435.5126985005221.2021744503010.28458865655626162141123.5DRYL
2025-06-09 04:00:03FORECAST2025255-3046.92235.11441.01849.07654905000.210.21FF14.922503.922162435.6748382747521.3814175704410.27428021124315162141123.5DRYL
2025-06-09 00:00:02FORECAST2025255-3047.64234.95241.29745.1425248000.210.21FF15.642498.642162434.0456900531819.5939183275590.29743333446392162131123DRYL
2025-06-08 20:00:02FORECAST2025255-3048.48835.58242.03552.4546688000.210.21FF16.488500.488162437.0608442096222.9258818284640.32572207937546162141123.5DRYL
2025-06-08 16:00:02FORECAST2025255-3047.98435.18641.58552.6230312000.210.21FF15.984498.984162437.1296108412323.0030851497420.3087347385286162131123DRYL
2025-06-08 12:00:02FORECAST2025255-3048.07435.4241.74749.09824480.0047244120.0047244120.210.214724412FF16.074499.074162435.6837778036721.3913087779940.3117397296495162141123.5DRYL
2025-06-08 08:00:02FORECAST2025255-3049.24435.81642.5349.02218160.0047244120.0047244120.210.214724412FF17.244502.244162435.6524345162221.3566327593360.35188603357136162141123.5DRYL
2025-06-08 04:00:03FORECAST2025255-3049.1936.7742.9848.569568916667000.210.21FF17.19501.19162435.465801579621.1503862606720.34999191180592162141123.5DRYL
2025-06-08 00:00:02FORECAST2025255-3049.15436.01442.58445.3200192000.210.21FF17.154497.154162434.1195447887319.674306104920.34873122977432162131123DRYL
2025-06-07 20:00:03FORECAST2025255-3049.94636.2343.08851.019328000.210.21FF17.946498.946162436.4733921375522.2685791567380.37682888542798162131123DRYL
2025-06-07 16:00:02FORECAST2025255-3049.26235.7842.52150.9997464000.210.21FF17.262497.262162436.4653630200722.2596228264070.35251822758036162131123DRYL
2025-06-07 12:00:03FORECAST2025255-3049.35235.54642.44948.1257776000.210.21FF17.352497.352162435.2825976500820.9483134876580.35568527768508162131123DRYL
2025-06-07 08:00:03FORECAST2025255-3047.7534.64641.19848.1040312000.210.21FF15.75495.75162435.2736150905820.9384155608540.30098179133329162131123DRYL
2025-06-07 04:00:04FORECAST2025255-3047.73234.64641.18948.206964633333000.210.21FF15.732494.732162435.3161283508420.9852692037280.3003890590365162131123DRYL
2025-06-07 00:00:02FORECAST2025255-3041.93632.05436.99547.4113355341360.066929170.066929170.210.27692917FF9.936483.936162434.9872307217720.6233255488150.14189878836785161131122.5DRYL
2025-06-06 20:00:03FORECAST2025255-3041.97231.47836.72551.4830568145350.0653543660.0653543660.210.275354366FF9.972484.972162436.6634199519622.4807676582160.14266591913309161131122.5DRYL
2025-06-06 16:00:03FORECAST2025255-3042.51231.35236.93251.4099379341360.0661417680.0661417680.210.276141768FF10.512484.512162436.6334719979922.4472996953830.15450839125914161131122.5DRYL
2025-06-06 12:00:02FORECAST2025255-3047.62432.86440.24449.6578464000.210.21FF15.624482.624162435.9141862170121.6465597027450.29684378557023162131123DRYL
2025-06-06 08:00:02FORECAST2025255-3044.20431.24437.72449.9874864000.210.21FF12.204480.204162436.0497578422921.7970313398650.19568952026031161131122.5DRYL
2025-06-06 04:00:04FORECAST2025255-3043.9730.5637.26549.794485416667000.210.21FF11.97478.97162435.9703957613921.7089215138390.18962832855841161131122.5DRYL
2025-06-06 00:00:02FORECAST2025255-3048.27232.21640.24447.5966616000.210.21FF16.272480.272162435.0639003109120.7075892374750.31839474600111162131123DRYL
2025-06-05 20:00:02FORECAST2025255-3048.27232.21640.24451.3973816000.210.21FF16.272480.272162436.6283286282922.4415528238790.31839474600111162131123DRYL
2025-06-05 16:00:02FORECAST2025255-3048.72233.33241.02750.9343112000.210.21FF16.722480.722162436.4385294804922.2296958802290.33373657648501162131123DRYL
2025-06-05 12:00:03FORECAST2025255-3046.16630.97438.5749.7048032000.210.21FF14.166472.166162435.9335051569721.6679890821140.25096687115985162131123DRYL
2025-06-05 08:00:03FORECAST2025255-3043.53830.97437.25649.1414632000.210.21FF11.538476.538162435.7015840692821.4110133597220.17874530701817161131122.5DRYL
2025-06-05 04:00:04FORECAST2025255-3044.5131.47837.99448.942344416667000.210.21FF12.51475.51162435.6195295728721.3202410509820.20379044492225161131122.5DRYL
2025-06-05 00:00:02FORECAST2025255-3051.7138.13844.92447.937008000.210.21FF19.71485.71162435.2046080106820.8624067758450.44159112423104162131123DRYL
2025-06-04 20:00:03FORECAST2025255-3051.7138.13844.92450.3070312000.210.21FF19.71482.71162436.181069290321.9429746616370.44159112423104162131123DRYL
2025-06-04 16:00:03FORECAST2025255-3050.21637.23843.72750.7315288000.210.21FF18.216478.216162436.3553445363722.1369737283810.38656756444162162131123DRYL
2025-06-04 12:00:03FORECAST2025255-3048.77635.18641.98149.04574000.210.21FF16.776482.776162435.6621428500921.3673721860680.33559706190754162131123DRYL
2025-06-04 08:00:03FORECAST2025255-3049.2835.38442.33248.7419792000.210.21FF17.28486.28162435.5369195348821.2289314728010.35315082902401162131123DRYL
2025-06-04 04:00:05FORECAST2025255-3048.43435.40241.91848.880591316667000.210.21FF16.434484.434162435.5940734183121.2920958827230.3238837846748162131123DRYL
2025-06-04 00:00:03FORECAST2025255-3047.69633.96240.82950.2643456000.210.21FF15.696473.696162436.16353454321.9234746383870.29920517811038162131123DRYL
2025-06-03 20:00:03FORECAST2025255-3049.04635.9642.50352.4666952000.210.21FF17.046476.046162437.0657572972822.9313958704730.3449592358962162131123DRYL
2025-06-03 16:00:02FORECAST2025255-3048.88436.82442.85452.3274592000.210.21FF16.884476.884162437.0088666897122.8675636417440.33933010279043162131123DRYL
2025-06-03 12:00:03FORECAST2025255-3042.6231.11836.86952.8440646215490.0909449310.0909449310.210.300944931FF10.62463.62162437.2198460068923.1044737962120.15695250234335161132125DRYL
2025-06-03 08:00:03FORECAST2025255-3044.65431.58638.1252.8052789367170.0909449310.0909449310.210.300944931FF12.654466.654162437.2040157190223.0866800022960.20767067477553161132125DRYL
2025-06-03 04:00:04FORECAST2025255-3058.02833.65645.84252.4617307387620.1216536090.1316536090.210.341653609FF26.028479.028162437.0637292078722.9291196773820.67392626137869163132127DRYL
2025-06-03 00:00:03FORECAST2025255-3041.37837.2239.29955.2492904000.210.21FF9.378458.378162438.1984925564524.2101557680930.13036409339801161131122.5DRYL
2025-06-02 20:00:03FORECAST2025255-3041.28837.29239.2956.882396000.220.22FF9.288464.288162438.8595764337924.9633842150990.12856601736648161131122.5DRYL
2025-06-02 16:00:03FORECAST2025255-3040.49636.71638.60657.1325288000.220.22FF8.496460.496162438.9605886571825.0789284735210.11348148996502161131122.5DRYL
2025-06-02 12:00:04FORECAST2025255-3043.17837.86840.52354.4589024000.210.21FF11.178481.178162437.8775560766623.8463310895290.16998226486364161131122.5DRYL
2025-06-02 08:00:03FORECAST2025255-3043.17837.86840.52354.616244000.210.21FF11.178479.178162437.9414958950123.9187195975270.16998226486364161131122.5DRYL
2025-06-02 04:00:04FORECAST2025255-3041.70238.67840.1954.379447783333000.210.21FF9.702473.702162437.8452579319223.8097833408890.1369803823575161131122.5DRYL