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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, June 11, 2025

[ Tuesday, June 10, 2025 | Index | Today | Thursday, June 12, 2025 ]

DAY 254 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/12/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 59.30°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 41.35°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 50.32°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.754
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 27
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 529

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.21 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.21 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 48 in
SWE DAY: 161
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 434.54 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 20.79 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -31

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-06-12 04:00:03OBSERVATION2025254-3159.3000641.3499250.3249947.836190416667000.210.21FF27.30006529.30006161434.5433629044 20.7868990521930.7542321085048216 4141124.5DRYL
2025-06-12 00:00:02FORECAST2025254-3155.92241.01848.4747.885876000.210.21FF23.922525.922161434.5639774368920.809476737610.64643707683238163141124DRYL
2025-06-11 12:00:02FORECAST2025254-3155.97641.2748.62349.8614728000.210.21FF23.976525.976161435.3815471860221.7087651726380.6482902184782163141124DRYL
2025-06-11 08:00:02FORECAST2025254-3156.91241.01848.96549.9216936000.210.21FF24.912526.912161435.4064042426521.7362251040790.67981978426409163141124DRYL
2025-06-11 04:00:03FORECAST2025254-3156.85841.34249.149.706074233333000.210.21FF24.858526.858161435.317386482421.6379183275550.67803293160651163141124DRYL
2025-06-11 00:00:01FORECAST2025254-3157.16441.05449.10948.0368024000.210.21FF25.164522.164161434.6265807999320.8780711796740.68810290620334163141124DRYL
2025-06-10 20:00:01FORECAST2025254-3156.3941.43248.91153.8640312000.210.21FF24.39520.39161437.0254203901423.5399508790880.6623779942122163141124DRYL
2025-06-10 16:00:01FORECAST2025254-3156.26441.12648.69553.8556672000.210.21FF24.264520.264161437.0220026441823.5361115334820.65811332528627163141124DRYL
2025-06-10 12:00:02FORECAST2025254-3156.85841.68449.27150.9877992000.210.21FF24.858520.858161435.8458267605122.2228194970230.67803293160651163141124DRYL
2025-06-10 08:00:01FORECAST2025254-3158.33442.54850.44150.6933864000.210.21FF26.334525.334161435.7245959472922.088355306340.7252780164496164141124.5DRYL
2025-06-10 04:00:04FORECAST2025254-3158.87442.11650.49550.31897895000.210.21FF26.874524.874161435.5702946031321.917452485380.74166746748568164141124.5DRYL
2025-06-10 00:00:02FORECAST2025254-3158.11841.61249.86546.0597696000.210.21FF26.118519.118161433.8046145693719.9809405984820.71858179163875164141124.5DRYL
2025-06-09 20:00:02FORECAST2025254-3157.81241.9949.90153.5572008000.210.21FF25.812516.812161436.8999940435323.3991407105080.70896290624636164141124.5DRYL
2025-06-09 16:00:02FORECAST2025254-3157.54241.25249.39753.608664000.210.21FF25.542516.542161436.9210380298923.4227531222760.70035033661642164141124.5DRYL
2025-06-09 12:00:01FORECAST2025254-3156.98440.6448.81250.1344552000.210.21FF24.984515.984161435.4941944084321.833264179430.68219578154323163141124DRYL
2025-06-09 08:00:02FORECAST2025254-3157.36241.01849.1949.8979016000.210.21FF25.362518.362161435.3965841849521.7253759146370.69454531200266163141124DRYL
2025-06-09 04:00:03FORECAST2025254-3157.27240.92849.150.25715225000.210.21FF25.272517.272161435.5448003739921.8892413440910.69162424273465163141124DRYL
2025-06-09 00:00:01FORECAST2025254-3157.36240.31648.83946.3520576000.210.21FF25.362511.362161433.9263956624620.1133812859070.69454531200266163141124DRYL
2025-06-08 20:00:02FORECAST2025254-3157.61440.7349.17253.7595512000.210.21FF25.614511.614161436.9827219575223.491995014590.70265828232993164141124.5DRYL
2025-06-08 16:00:02FORECAST2025254-3157.12840.33448.73153.8952448000.210.21FF25.128511.128161437.0381744304823.5542793978760.68692527789242163141124DRYL
2025-06-08 12:00:02FORECAST2025254-3156.94840.08248.51550.3675064000.210.21FF24.948510.948161435.5903020845721.9395973280230.68100871187829163141124DRYL
2025-06-08 08:00:02FORECAST2025254-3157.00240.02848.51550.368884000.210.21FF25.002513.002161435.5908700220921.9402260036020.68278861645995163141124DRYL
2025-06-08 04:00:03FORECAST2025254-3156.26440.08248.17349.956024916667000.210.21FF24.264512.264161435.4205733173621.7518810098710.65811332528627163141124DRYL
2025-06-08 00:00:02FORECAST2025254-3155.70639.41647.56146.6212608000.210.21FF23.706507.706161434.0384785745520.2354211068590.63899015398747163141124DRYL
2025-06-07 20:00:02FORECAST2025254-3155.9439.54247.74152.3886624000.210.21FF23.94508.94161436.4214220621222.8635345445410.64705517883255163141124DRYL
2025-06-07 16:00:02FORECAST2025254-3155.23839.79447.51652.2997088000.210.21FF23.238508.238161436.3849331239822.8228049270910.62267671544643163141124DRYL
2025-06-07 12:00:03FORECAST2025254-3155.63439.86647.7549.42574000.210.21FF23.634507.634161435.2015784771321.51016006540.6364959318923163141124DRYL
2025-06-07 08:00:03FORECAST2025254-3155.63439.59647.61549.2479312000.210.21FF23.634507.634161435.1280816853721.4291578300290.6364959318923163141124DRYL
2025-06-07 04:00:04FORECAST2025254-3155.7639.45247.60649.338269433333000.210.21FF23.76506.76161435.1654269005421.4703090804910.64085695819924163141124DRYL
2025-06-07 00:00:02FORECAST2025254-3153.0637.90445.48248.04721520.0031496080.0031496080.210.213149608FF21.06502.06161434.6308990818120.8828043407530.54430154530974163141124DRYL
2025-06-06 20:00:02FORECAST2025254-3153.99639.2946.64352.20404480.0031496080.0031496080.210.213149608FF21.996502.996161436.3456823649822.7790095504680.57838380225915163141124DRYL
2025-06-06 16:00:02FORECAST2025254-3154.01439.00246.50852.13998640.0031496080.0031496080.210.213149608FF22.014502.014161436.3193939921722.7496872688080.57903434823935163141124DRYL
2025-06-06 12:00:02FORECAST2025254-3152.21438.5745.39250.5661768000.210.21FF20.214495.214161435.6721865992622.0302768144210.51320604088047163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-06 08:00:02FORECAST2025254-3152.44836.53644.49250.736704000.210.21FF20.448496.448161435.7424385908722.1081351270230.52182306868217163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-06 04:00:03FORECAST2025254-3152.30435.97844.14150.489287816667000.210.21FF20.304495.304161435.640500734921.9951786262010.51652123236887163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-06 00:00:02FORECAST2025254-3152.736.42844.56448.6925424000.210.21FF20.7491.7161434.8982993289321.1763038797620.53109143385243163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-05 20:00:02FORECAST2025254-3152.736.42844.56452.4932624000.210.21FF20.7491.7161436.4643186379122.9114360064970.53109143385243163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-05 16:00:02FORECAST2025254-3152.9737.1345.0552.0855912000.210.21FF20.97491.97161436.2970678580522.7247907182130.54100302916545163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-05 12:00:02FORECAST2025254-3151.33238.13844.73550.63734000.210.21FF19.332486.332161435.7015073610922.0627653667560.4807044448188162131123DRYL
2025-06-05 08:00:03FORECAST2025254-3153.61840.74847.18349.9656616000.210.21FF21.618492.618161435.4245503061521.7562757329290.56467558504069163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-05 04:00:04FORECAST2025254-3151.63840.02845.83349.855496416667000.210.21FF19.638490.638161435.3790801349621.706040169560.49197696962159162131123DRYL
2025-06-05 00:00:02FORECAST2025254-3156.55239.93848.24549.6371632000.210.21FF24.552493.552161435.2889265025521.606507483960.66783060203544163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-04 20:00:02FORECAST2025254-3156.5739.79448.18252.0271616000.210.21FF24.57490.57161436.2730823957422.6980501595330.66843428774078163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-04 16:00:03FORECAST2025254-3154.75239.5647.15652.217172000.210.21FF22.752487.752161436.35106899522.7850188220960.60550141449766163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-04 12:00:03FORECAST2025254-3155.2239.50647.36350.4298344000.210.21FF23.22494.22161435.6159958053721.9680425304560.62204466799929163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-04 08:00:03FORECAST2025254-3155.25640.38847.82250.135028000.210.21FF23.256497.256161435.4944306944221.8335254767090.62330843457925163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-04 04:00:04FORECAST2025254-3156.49841.16248.8350.258781716667000.210.21FF24.498496.498161435.5454723356621.88998482180.66601693703708163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-04 00:00:03FORECAST2025254-3152.738.94845.82451.3749864000.210.21FF20.7485.7161436.0051214840622.3997571865740.53109143385243163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-03 20:00:03FORECAST2025254-3154.540.40647.45353.7826968000.210.21FF22.5486.5161436.9921819778923.5026180272870.59651193914759163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-03 16:00:02FORECAST2025254-3154.594147.79553.6933496000.210.21FF22.59487.59161436.9556611099723.4616130716770.59972859010299163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-03 12:00:03FORECAST2025254-3147.78634.35841.07253.3821104000.210.21FF15.786480.786161436.828376648723.3188206281140.35344819460261162131123DRYL
2025-06-03 08:00:03FORECAST2025254-3147.49835.27641.38753.4923184000.210.21FF15.498482.498161436.8734588474423.3693741611760.34360707280094162131123DRYL
2025-06-03 04:00:04FORECAST2025254-3148.27237.34642.80953.7274692833330.0141732360.0141732360.210.224173236FF16.272481.272161436.9696085850823.4772712230050.37027621332006162131123DRYL
2025-06-03 00:00:03FORECAST2025254-3153.27642.54847.91255.5536416000.210.21FF21.276477.276161437.7143520411524.316626236470.55220510926613163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-02 20:00:03FORECAST2025254-3154.1442.47648.30857.1858616000.220.22FF22.14483.14161438.3770811823225.0689710931040.58358203398879163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-02 16:00:03FORECAST2025254-3153.04241.59447.31857.4048016000.220.22FF21.042480.042161438.4657684277425.1700404449860.54364207893191163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-02 12:00:04FORECAST2025254-3160.36843.05251.7154.8144216000.210.21FF28.368498.368161437.4133019168123.9765571447160.78423249200441164131124DRYL
2025-06-02 08:00:03FORECAST2025254-3160.36843.05251.7154.9717632000.210.21FF28.368496.368161437.4774272361824.0489055353730.78423249200441164131124DRYL
2025-06-02 04:00:04FORECAST2025254-3154.1442.54848.34454.513763783333000.210.21FF22.14492.14161437.2906960936923.8383617115010.58358203398879163131123.5DRYL
2025-06-02 00:00:04FORECAST2025254-3148.233.11640.65859.1881248000.210.21FF16.2471.2161439.1863151075325.9946144290370.36776654298392162131123DRYL
2025-06-01 20:00:03FORECAST2025254-3150.2739.52444.89760.35816000.210.21FF18.27482.27161439.6572944306926.5369053224150.44175880248864162131123DRYL
2025-06-01 16:00:03FORECAST2025254-3147.19239.41643.30461.6042976000.210.21FF15.192471.192161440.1573707457927.1155856582570.33326585637697162131123DRYL
2025-06-01 12:00:04FORECAST2025254-3146.9440.80243.87162.2654472000.210.21FF14.94459.94161440.4220487936627.4230758248770.32484323096171162131123DRYL
2025-06-01 08:00:03FORECAST2025254-3146.9440.80243.87162.8505336000.210.21FF14.94452.94161440.655906027927.6954588278450.32484323096171162131123DRYL
2025-06-01 04:00:05FORECAST2025254-3126.29425.30425.79964.637430266667000.210.21FF-5.706424.294161441.3679753909928.5288917312750.0089645962680636161131122.5DRYL